Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[ImSGirl95]

I dont know how it is everywhere else,. but here in greece,. We pay 3 euro for a ticket to go see any movie at the movie theater. I saw Xmen/Apocalpse last night and even though we had a packed house of like 60 people (small theater lol ),. i dont see how companies can make any money off of that

Yeah, same here for Bulgaria.
We have a Tuesday, when the movies are 6 levas (around 3 euros) and there are really not that packed theaters.
I don't think those money are even enough for the theaters themselves, let alone for the companies/studios. ..

 

[BigSams50]

Yeah, same here for Bulgaria.
We have a Tuesday, when the movies are 6 levas (around 3 euros) and there are really not that packed theaters.
I don't think those money are even enough for the theaters themselves, let alone for the companies/studios. ..

Its really kind of crazy,. i mean 3 euro is nothing,. when i lived in the states it was like 9 dollars for a movie. 3 i feel like im stealing lol

 

[ImSGirl95]

Its really kind of crazy,. i mean 3 euro is nothing,. when i lived in the states it was like 9 dollars for a movie. 3 i feel like im stealing lol

Yeah, and it's weird when something is considering making a 1 billion $ (dollars) as a flop or something.
Do anyone have any idea how much effort it is to make those money? People have to see the movie again and again and again, etc. lol

 

[hafizbat]

I think that when people mention CW as a disappointment, they are referring to the fact that it doesn't bring additional profit compared to AoU or IM3 (though both movies are still "fresher" than CW I guess). CW has the same budget as AoU but its BO will be 200 million less than AoU. CW has 30 million more in budget than IM3 but now we're still not sure whether it can make the same as IM3.

Yeah, it seems that Marvel has hit their ceiling. I do wonder though, if AOU was as great as CW, how would it have done?

 

[gerrym51]

In OS markets CW has considerably weaker leg than IM3:

At the end of 2nd weekend, IM3 made 503M, CW made 494M
In 3rd week IM3 made 161M (664M ***), CW made 153M (647M ***)
In 4th week IM3 made 72M (55% drop - 736M ***), CW made 59M (61% drop - 706M ***)

I guess OS total will be 750-770 M, with a 55% 3rd weekend drop domestic that means 1.2B WW is out of the question.



It's currently at 1.05B, I think it's not unreasonable to expect another 50 M from domestic which will make BO WW exceed 1.1B even if it's pulled off OS markets tomorrow morning.

I agree-lol. However i did predict 1.1 billion so i'm stuck with it. However if it's over 1.1.-but not by much- i will say i was correct and say that was my prediction.

When i started getting involved in this was when the wild 1.2 and beyond seemed reasonably out of reach but we were still getting them

 

[JB33]

My hat's off to people like gerrym51 and whoever else lowballed this movie from the start. Looks like you were bang on.

Let's admit it: a lot of us thought $500M domestic and AoU overseas numbers were in the bag. All you have to do is look back earlier in the thread. Not only did it not open as big as we thought but the legs we thought this movie would have due to the great reception are non-existant and looking even worse than IM3. Overseas, especially, the film is kind of plummeting. You know it's bad when it makes more domestically than overseas already.

Also, my hat's off to everyone trying to have an intelligent discussion about why this is happening. That was my intention.

 

[darthcoolness3]

Angry Birds weaken the structure of Captain America: Civil War at the box office this weekend

http://www.ign.com/articles/2016/05...ica-civil-war?abthid=5741fdbb08cb27cf0d000019

 

[Ozbridge]

My hat's off to people like gerrym51 and whoever else lowballed this movie from the start. Looks like you were bang on.

Let's admit it: a lot of us thought $500M domestic and AoU overseas numbers were in the bag. All you have to do is look back earlier in the thread. Not only did it not open as big as we thought but the legs we thought this movie would have due to the great reception are non-existant and looking even worse than IM3. Overseas, especially, the film is kind of plummeting. You know it's bad when it makes more domestically than overseas already.

Also, my hat's off to everyone trying to have an intelligent discussion about why this is happening. That was my intention.

I'll be the first to admit that back in January I predicted both CW and BvS would make AoU money.

After BvS was released I adjusted my expectation and predicted 180+ M OW, 450+ M domestic and 1.35 B WW (exactly the average of IM3 and AoU).

Well none of those will happen now.

 

[Clark-Kent]

I never expected BvS to hit a billion. I felt there was not the established universe on big screen like Marvel has, and while MOS was good it wasn't enough on own to build the hype far enough. The film not being as critically well received definitely solidified it not hitting the billion worldwide. Though I'll say in terms of quality I don't feel BvS and CW are more than a marginal difference. Both have their good and bad as films. In terms of all the Marvel films and critical acceptance it was easy to assume well over a billion ahead of time for CW.

 

[brandeezy89]

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/734414030920683520

Called 1.2B but it wouldn't surprise me if it ends up lower, especially with the comp. it has

That being said I can see Superhero fatigue kicking in next year especially with the CBMs sitting next to other blockbusters.

- The Wolverine releases on March 3rd, a week after Kong: Skull Island releases

- Fast 8 releases 2 weeks before GOTG2, Baywatch 2 weeks later

- WW is going to get it worse, it's sandwiched in between Bad Boys 2, Captain Underpants, The Mummy, & WWZ2

- Spiderman then a week later Plant of the Apes then Dunkirk

- JL and Thor are 2 weeks away from each other plus The Grinch and another Disney movie next to both

 

[Delwin]

It might be just the saturation of the market - Marvel may need to consider to have the movies a bit cheaper: which is not impossible: e.g. cutting CW shorter and some most time/cost consuming scenes. Also ensamble casting is fine but it costs more - both longevity of the movie (you need to develope those characters) as well the fees of the actors. It makes me a sad since I find CW significantly superior over AoU - as it often happens, better movies not necessarily earn more money...

 

[gerrym51]

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/734414030920683520

Called 1.2B but it wouldn't surprise me if it ends up lower, especially with the comp. it has

That being said I can see Superhero fatigue kicking in next year especially with the CBMs sitting next to other blockbusters.

- The Wolverine releases on March 3rd, a week after Kong: Skull Island releases

- Fast 8 releases 2 weeks before GOTG2, Baywatch 2 weeks later

- WW is going to get it worse, it's sandwiched in between Bad Boys 2, Captain Underpants, The Mummy, & WWZ2

- Spiderman then a week later Plant of the Apes then Dunkirk

- JL and Thor are 2 weeks away from each other plus The Grinch and another Disney movie next to both

I looked at Gitesh's twitter feed

On may 11th he said 430-440 domestic and 1-3-1.4 WW. BIG change in just 11 days.

Now it's 410 and 1.2.

I suspect his 1.2 is still high. He was mesmerized by OS numbers

 

[King Maxx]

It's sad how this is going to match IM3's Dom numbers honestly. It deserves to do so much more. I think Marvel should reconsider a few things:

First, I think they should release their movies in all markets at the same week this could have prevented the China leak. I think them doing this hurts dom OW numbers.

Second, they should spend not 200M + on movies without the avengers title since that is their flagship.

Third, they need to make the films more accessible to new viewers. Most people wanna watch movies without having to watch 5 films previously to understand what is going on.

For IW, I hope that the Russos improve their cinematography since CW and TWS could get easily mistaken for television shows. This is just my two cents. Don't attack.

 

[Ozbridge]

Blockbusters next year:

March:
3/3: Wolverine
3/10: Kong: Skull Island
3/17: Beauty and the Beast (why the hell are there 3 blockbusters in 3 consecutive weekends in MARCH?)

April - May
4/14: Fast 8
5/5: GotG Vol 2
5/26: Pirates of Caribbean

June:
6/2: Wonder Woman
6/9: The Mummy and World War Z
6/16: Kingsman 2 and Cars 3
6/23: Transformers
6/30: Despicable Me 3

July:
7/7: Spider Man
7/14: Planet of the Apes
7/21: Dunkirk and Pitch Perfect 3
7/28: Jumanji and a Disney live action Fairy tale (I think we can all agree that any Disney live action fairy tale will sure be a blockbuster)

August:
8/4: Alien

November:
11/3: Thor 3
11/17: Justice League

December:
12/15: Star Wars VIII

Not to mention other potential blockbusters: Fifty Shades Darker, Ghost in a Shell, Baywatch, Equalizer 2, Blade Runner 2, Crood 2, Dr Seuss, a Marvel from Fox movie in October.

Bottom line: market saturation and Marvel'd better tighten their budget with team-up movies.

 

[JB33]

Blockbusters next year:

March:
3/3: Wolverine
3/10: Kong: Skull Island
3/17: Beauty and the Beast (why the hell are there 3 blockbusters in 3 consecutive weekends in MARCH?)

April - May
4/14: Fast 8
5/5: GotG Vol 2
5/26: Pirates of Caribbean

June:
6/2: Wonder Woman
6/9: The Mummy and World War Z
6/16: Kingsman 2 and Cars 3
6/23: Transformers
6/30: Despicable Me 3

July:
7/7: Spider Man
7/14: Planet of the Apes
7/21: Dunkirk and Pitch Perfect 3
7/28: Jumanji and a Disney live action Fairy tale (I think we can all agree that any Disney live action fairy tale will sure be a blockbuster)

August:
8/4: Alien

November:
11/3: Thor 3
11/17: Justice League

December:
12/15: Star Wars VIII

Not to mention other potential blockbusters: Fifty Shades Darker, Ghost in a Shell, Baywatch, Equalizer 2, Blade Runner 2, Crood 2, Dr Seuss, a Marvel from Fox movie in October.

Bottom line: market saturation and Marvel'd better tighten their budget with team-up movies.

That's insane. Studios going full steam ahead with their franchises.

Fun time to be a movie buff!!

 

[First Avenger]

Pretty disappointing box office performance for such a good superhero movie.

 

[gerrym51]

Pretty disappointing box office performance for such a good superhero movie.

I think over 1 billion is terrific. Marvel has spoiled the movie goers.

Unrealistic expectations is not an actual bad performance.

They just have to tighten up the budgets some-which will be hard with RDJ.

 

[Tilapia]

There is no way Ragnarok is going to be less than 220 millionish if those actors are commanding typical salary. Obviously Marvel is probably getting good discounts with ILM under the Mouse, but I wonder how far that can take you? No RDJ money though... phew.

But yeah, looks like we've hit the proverbial plateau. 1.4 billion might be the ceiling here on out, unadjusted.

That's insane. Studios going full steam ahead with their franchises.

Fun time to be a movie buff!!

It seems like January to early Feb are the only dog days of the film season these day, and that makes sense, because of NFL playoffs on weekends plus brutal winter weather in most parts.

But what is so special about 1st week of November? Why does the Holiday slate have to begin there? Put some big films to open up the school year. Mid September is fine for second tier blockbusters like Disney fairy tales or animation films. It's stupidity for all those films to come out week after week in the summer. Take the kids on a Friday night after school is back in session.

 

[daddydivine]

I think over 1 billion is terrific. Marvel has spoiled the movie goers.

Unrealistic expectations is not an actual bad performance.

They just have to tighten up the budgets some-which will be hard with RDJ.

Over at WB's they dream of a billion. We've lost perspective with these movies thanks to Marvels success. If Infinity Wars doesn't make 2 billion APIECE the starways will be bathed in this boards tears.

 

[JB33]

I think over 1 billion is terrific. Marvel has spoiled the movie goers.

Unrealistic expectations is not an actual bad performance.

They just have to tighten up the budgets some-which will be hard with RDJ.

I totally agree. What I'm genuinely just curious about, though, is why this will struggle to match IM3. I think we've all established that the movie has done terrific business in general. It doesn't change the fact that it has veered off course compared to another older and less well received film that doesn't have the same scope as CW (IM3).

I've been thinking about this since yesterday and it makes me see this in a new light: Instead of talking about how Civil War's box office has deflated, I think we should be talking about how IM3's box office was inflated. (I know some people have already mentioned this. I'm just expanding on it)

Looking at it that way, suddenly it all fits better. Both Avengers films stand alone as $1.4 + billion films, then you have an inflated Iron Man 3 at $1.2 billion due to massive hype and appeal after the phenomenon that was The Avengers, then you have the rest of the solo films, the biggest of which being Captain America: Civil War. The rest range anywhere from $200M + (The Incredible Hulk) to $700M + (Guardians of the Galaxy, Captain America: The Winter Soldier).

In a nutshell, IM3 is the outlier here and CW is performing like it's supposed to: an above average solo film, due to its scope, that's a tier below the big tent pole Avengers films. Otherwise, there is absolutely no reason why CW should be struggling to match IM3. No objective reason. I'm still waiting for some people to provide me with those, rather than blurt out how the movie is doing fine for the millionth time.

 

[JB33]

Over at WB's they dream of a billion. We've lost perspective with these movies thanks to Marvels success. If Infinity Wars doesn't make 2 billion APIECE the starways will be bathed in this boards tears.

You're still missing the point of the conversation. Nobody has lost any perspective. The movie has done really well. WE GET IT!

Oh well, I'm not explaining myself again. I've already done so a few times in this thread. Some people are actually reading, some people aren't. Ah well.

 

[gerrym51]

actually i woud say that international was not as strong for some reason

 

[King Maxx]

actually i woud say that international was not as strong for some reason

The movie was going strong in China until the HD leak. I think that is a given, I'm not sure about the other territories.


Disney needs to work on not leaking movies. This movie is already on YouTube.

 

[Iceman]

The movie was going strong in China until the HD leak. I think that is a given, I'm not sure about the other territories.


Disney needs to work on not leaking movies. This movie is already on YouTube.

It's crazy, that's got to make a difference.

 

[Iceman]

I totally agree. What I'm genuinely just curious about, though, is why this will struggle to match IM3. I think we've all established that the movie has done terrific business in general. It doesn't change the fact that it has veered off course compared to another older and less well received film that doesn't have the same scope as CW (IM3).

I've been thinking about this since yesterday and it makes me see this in a new light: Instead of talking about how Civil War's box office has deflated, I think we should be talking about how IM3's box office was inflated. (I know some people have already mentioned this. I'm just expanding on it)

Looking at it that way, suddenly it all fits better. Both Avengers films stand alone as $1.4 + billion films, then you have an inflated Iron Man 3 at $1.2 billion due to massive hype and appeal after the phenomenon that was The Avengers, then you have the rest of the solo films, the biggest of which being Captain America: Civil War. The rest range anywhere from $200M + (The Incredible Hulk) to $700M + (Guardians of the Galaxy, Captain America: The Winter Soldier).

In a nutshell, IM3 is the outlier here and CW is performing like it's supposed to: an above average solo film, due to its scope, that's a tier below the big tent pole Avengers films. Otherwise, there is absolutely no reason why CW should be struggling to match IM3. No objective reason. I'm still waiting for some people to provide me with those, rather than blurt out how the movie is doing fine for the millionth time.

Yep, IM3 was very obviously an outlier given that the 2nd film didn't rise much from the first but then we see an outright explosion for the next film. Don't see any other solos that don't involve other Avengers competing with IM3 for a fair while. Will be interesting to see what the other Phase 3 solo films can do.