Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Vincanws]

The movie was going strong in China until the HD leak. I think that is a given, I'm not sure about the other territories.


Disney needs to work on not leaking movies. This movie is already on YouTube.

Disney doesn't leak their movies.. odd comment. Some thieving pirates did. Frankly, the movie in this case was going to get leaked pretty early. People that were going to see the movie went to see the movie, those who weren't didn't. I have trouble reconciling these views that somehow releasing the movie one week early combined with the leak getting out when it did makes as big a contribution to box office returns as people are presuming.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

actually i woud say that international was not as strong for some reason

I noticed that to. I think BvS was kind of a precursor for this movie...atleast OS. Still good numbers but not as great as they could of been.

 

[JB33]

Steering this conversation back on a positive note...

We officially have our first, and quite possibly only, billion dollar film of 2016! There are are a handful of other movies that could do it (Zootopia is about $18M away so it might crawl to the billion dollar mark), but looking at the schedule I'd say CW was really the only safe bet to do it. I don't know what to expect out of the likes of Finding Dory, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.

Back to CW, it's got an estimated global cume of $1,053,490,153, which means it's currently the 19th highest grossing film of all time, about $10M behind Toy Story 3. IM3 is the 10th highest grossing film of all time so I don't know if CW will break into the top 10, but it should be able to top the $1.159B gross of Minions to finish 11th all time.

 

[gerrym51]

Steering this conversation back on a positive note...

We officially have our first, and quite possibly only, billion dollar film of 2016! There are are a handful of other movies that could do it (Zootopia is about $18M away so it might crawl to the billion dollar mark), but looking at the schedule I'd say CW really was the safest bet to do it. I don't know what to expect out of the likes of Finding Dory, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.

Back to CW, it's got an estimated global cume of $1,053,490,153, which means it's currently the 19th highest grossing film of all time, about $10M behind Toy Story 3. IM3 is the 10th highest grossing film of all time so I don't know if CW will break into the top 10, but it should be able to top the $1.159B gross of Minions to finish 11th all time.

I am actually going to theatre to see beasts. the wife loves harry potter world

 

[JB33]

I am actually going to theatre to see beasts. the wife loves harry potter world

Oh me too. It looks great. I'm sure it will be a big movie, but I'm the fence about whether it's a billion dollar movie or not. In terms of likelihood to hit $1 billion, my gut says Rogue One is the next most likely, followed by Finding Dory, followed by Fantastic Beasts.

 

[gerrym51]

Oh me too. It looks great. I'm sure it will be a big movie, but I'm the fence about whether it's a billion dollar movie or not. In terms of likelihood to hit $1 billion, my gut says Rogue One is the next most likely, followed by Finding Dory, followed by Fantastic Beasts.

I think it will.Beasts is the only one i'm interested in.

I only watched the force awakens last week on PPV for 1st time

 

[Maximum_Maximus]

The movie was going strong in China until the HD leak. I think that is a given, I'm not sure about the other territories.


Disney needs to work on not leaking movies. This movie is already on YouTube.

So true. I was telling someone about how awesome the movie is and he replied that he already got the movie in his phone. WTF? I think Disney will have to consider releasing Infinity War in all the major markets on the same day. CW could have made additional hundred million. We may never know.

 

[hafizbat]

I totally agree. What I'm genuinely just curious about, though, is why this will struggle to match IM3. I think we've all established that the movie has done terrific business in general. It doesn't change the fact that it has veered off course compared to another older and less well received film that doesn't have the same scope as CW (IM3).

I've been thinking about this since yesterday and it makes me see this in a new light: Instead of talking about how Civil War's box office has deflated, I think we should be talking about how IM3's box office was inflated. (I know some people have already mentioned this. I'm just expanding on it)

Looking at it that way, suddenly it all fits better. Both Avengers films stand alone as $1.4 + billion films, then you have an inflated Iron Man 3 at $1.2 billion due to massive hype and appeal after the phenomenon that was The Avengers, then you have the rest of the solo films, the biggest of which being Captain America: Civil War. The rest range anywhere from $200M + (The Incredible Hulk) to $700M + (Guardians of the Galaxy, Captain America: The Winter Soldier).

In a nutshell, IM3 is the outlier here and CW is performing like it's supposed to: an above average solo film, due to its scope, that's a tier below the big tent pole Avengers films. Otherwise, there is absolutely no reason why CW should be struggling to match IM3. No objective reason. I'm still waiting for some people to provide me with those, rather than blurt out how the movie is doing fine for the millionth time.

You make a great point here

 

[Webfoot Hero]

It's sad how this is going to match IM3's Dom numbers honestly. It deserves to do so much more. I think Marvel should reconsider a few things:

First, I think they should release their movies in all markets at the same week this could have prevented the China leak. I think them doing this hurts dom OW numbers.

Second, they should spend not 200M + on movies without the avengers title since that is their flagship.

Third, they need to make the films more accessible to new viewers. Most people wanna watch movies without having to watch 5 films previously to understand what is going on.

For IW, I hope that the Russos improve their cinematography since CW and TWS could get easily mistaken for television shows. This is just my two cents. Don't attack.

1. CW was released in China the same day as the US so I highly doubt the leak hurt domestic OW. Plus, pirating and the watching of those movies in the US is not as high as many foreign countries so they didn't lose much there.
2. Why? The film is over $1 billion and likely going to make Disney a nice profit.
3. Being this far into the MCU, it's kind of hard to just overlook everything that's come before it. With how easy it is to find past films, this shouldn't even be a consideration for Marvel.

 

[Anita18]

1. CW was released in China the same day as the US so I highly doubt the leak hurt domestic OW. Plus, pirating and the watching of those movies in the US is not as high as many foreign countries so they didn't lose much there.
2. Why? The film is over $1 billion and likely going to make Disney a nice profit.
3. Being this far into the MCU, it's kind of hard to just overlook everything that's come before it. With how easy it is to find past films, this shouldn't even be a consideration for Marvel.

It's also the entire point of an extended universe. They're officially the first one to do it this way, but it's kind of the same as Harry Potter, IMO. All of them ended up performing about the same, no matter what the quality. Only the very first and very last broke out a little more than the others, but there's no indication that Marvel will ever officially "stop." IMO they've hit a saturation point and they might consider reining in the budget, if anything. But it's not a bad sure thing, either way.

 

[Raiden]

I think it will.Beasts is the only one i'm interested in.

I only watched the force awakens last week on PPV for 1st time

I'm not sure Beasts will cross the one billion mark. It's a Harry Potter movie without Harry Potter, and I just don't think moviegoers are that excited to go back to Potter world without the character that made it famous. And breaking one billion isn't as easy as it sounds; just ask Batman V Superman.

 

[Raiden]

It's also the entire point of an extended universe. They're officially the first one to do it this way, but it's kind of the same as Harry Potter, IMO. All of them ended up performing about the same, no matter what the quality. Only the very first and very last broke out a little more than the others, but there's no indication that Marvel will ever officially "stop." IMO they've hit a saturation point and they might consider reining in the budget, if anything. But it's not a bad sure thing, either way.

I think Marvel has actually been quite responsible with the budgets for their MCU movies, especially when compared with WB, who seems to have movies with runaway budgets (check MOS and BVS, for example). And all MCU movies are profitable, even the Phase 1, and when you add the fact that the franchise as a whole has grossed over 10 billion it's quite a remarkable achievement.

 

[hafizbat]

Another thing to consider is that while the budget for CW may have been higher than TA, just look at how much goodwill it has created for Black Panther and Spider-Man, as well as boosting Ant-Man.

There will surely be a boost in the respective BOs of these characters thanks to their debuts in a high profile, billion dollar Avengers-type movie. Just look at IM3's ridiculous boost following TA. The beauty of the MCU is that all of their movies boost each other. The Avengers turned Stark in IM3 into a huge smash hit, then Iron Man being in CW turned that into a billion dollar behemoth (the nearly perfect Cap solo TWS could only do $700mil). And now Black Panther and Spider-Man will reap the benefits of CW.

Now Iron Man will be in Homecoming, which is brilliant (Peter can show Tony what it means to be a hero again, restoring his hope, while RDJ will hugely increase the BO in return).

Anyways, my point is that the higher budget for CW will pay off huge dividends within the next 2 years.

 

[Invader34]

Another thing to consider is that while the budget for CW may have been higher than TA, just look at how much goodwill it has created for Black Panther and Spider-Man, as well as boosting Ant-Man.

There will surely be a boost in the respective BOs of these characters thanks to their debuts in a high profile, billion dollar Avengers-type movie. Just look at IM3's ridiculous boost following TA. The beauty of the MCU is that all of their movies boost each other. The Avengers turned Stark in IM3 into a huge smash hit, then Iron Man being in CW turned that into a billion dollar behemoth (the nearly perfect Cap solo TWS could only do $700mil). And now Black Panther and Spider-Man will reap the benefits of CW.

Now Iron Man will be in Homecoming, which is brilliant (Peter can show Tony what it means to be a hero again, restoring his hope, while RDJ will hugely increase the BO in return).

Anyways, my point is that the higher budget for CW will pay off huge dividends within the next 2 years.

I agree 100%

I figure they had to know they were gonna lose some money due to the content of the film as well, I mean how many times would you expect parents to take their kids to see Iron Man and Cap beat each other bloody, and the main bad guy attempt to blow his head off at the end of the movie. I think they knew this movie had to be done to keep the content in the MCU fresh and exciting rather than having another fist pumping save the day type movie that could potentially be getting a little too repetitive for some viewers.

 

[Anita18]

Another thing to consider is that while the budget for CW may have been higher than TA, just look at how much goodwill it has created for Black Panther and Spider-Man, as well as boosting Ant-Man.

There will surely be a boost in the respective BOs of these characters thanks to their debuts in a high profile, billion dollar Avengers-type movie. Just look at IM3's ridiculous boost following TA. The beauty of the MCU is that all of their movies boost each other. The Avengers turned Stark in IM3 into a huge smash hit, then Iron Man being in CW turned that into a billion dollar behemoth (the nearly perfect Cap solo TWS could only do $700mil). And now Black Panther and Spider-Man will reap the benefits of CW.

Now Iron Man will be in Homecoming, which is brilliant (Peter can show Tony what it means to be a hero again, restoring his hope, while RDJ will hugely increase the BO in return).

Anyways, my point is that the higher budget for CW will pay off huge dividends within the next 2 years.

Good points. Marvel's done a really good job making us care about less-known characters, so that's definitely one way of spreading the love.

 

[gerrym51]

Another thing to consider is that while the budget for CW may have been higher than TA, just look at how much goodwill it has created for Black Panther and Spider-Man, as well as boosting Ant-Man.

There will surely be a boost in the respective BOs of these characters thanks to their debuts in a high profile, billion dollar Avengers-type movie. Just look at IM3's ridiculous boost following TA. The beauty of the MCU is that all of their movies boost each other. The Avengers turned Stark in IM3 into a huge smash hit, then Iron Man being in CW turned that into a billion dollar behemoth (the nearly perfect Cap solo TWS could only do $700mil). And now Black Panther and Spider-Man will reap the benefits of CW.

Now Iron Man will be in Homecoming, which is brilliant (Peter can show Tony what it means to be a hero again, restoring his hope, while RDJ will hugely increase the BO in return).

Anyways, my point is that the higher budget for CW will pay off huge dividends within the next 2 years.

wasn't BvS chastised for trying to stuff to many characters in for the future?

 

[Endeavor]

wasn't BvS chastised for trying to stuff to many characters in for the future?

I think it was chastised for doing a bad job of it.
The Flash scenes were cringe-worthy and the other computer screen videos were unsatisfactory. The only one I enjoyed was Wonder Woman.

 

[Erzengel]

And the other CB characters have already been previously introduced. BP, Spider-Man and Aunt May are the only new characters.

Technically you had Batman, Alfred reintroduced, Wonder Woman and you only gave 10 seconds of screen time for Aquaman, Cyborg and Flash.

 

[Iceman]

wasn't BvS chastised for trying to stuff to many characters in for the future?

It was the method used which was criticised (was very jarring to the film).

 

[Anita18]

wasn't BvS chastised for trying to stuff to many characters in for the future?

None of the new characters in BvS were as integral to the plot as Black Panther, nor had the utter charm of Tom Holland's Peter Parker. (Yes, WW was mostly a side plot with her own agenda until she decided to have some fun fighting something more on her level.)

I maintain that the middle of CW really would have gone down in flames had it not been for Holland just being the woobiest. The randomness of his appearance was such a huge no-no on paper.

 

[third3ye]

Relative to DOM, the OS% performance is on par with AoU, and to me that's indexing higher than your typical Cap title, largely thanks to RDJ and other Avengers cast mates. TWS OS was below 64% and CW is coming in at 67%, though it was closer to 70% a week or so ago until the OS take hit a wall. Not sure if it's simply regressing to mean or piracy was an issue (although isn't this always an issue?), but OS% finishing at 70% turned out to be wishful thinking.

A final cume of $1.2b is a very respectable number, probably only looks a bit disappointing when the trades were reporting tracking #s well above AoU. The more conservative folks in this forum saw this right. I think it's safe to say that's the ceiling for a MCU solo film, though IM3 and soon CW will have reached that number for different reasons.

 

[Anita18]

Relative to DOM, the OS% performance is on par with AoU, and to me that's indexing higher than your typical Cap title, largely thanks to RDJ and other Avengers cast mates. TWS OS was below 64% and CW is coming in at 67%, though it was closer to 70% a week or so ago until the OS take hit a wall. Not sure if it's simply regressing to mean or piracy was an issue (although isn't this always an issue?), but OS% finishing at 70% turned out to be wishful thinking.

A final cume of $1.2b is a very respectable number, probably only looks a bit disappointing when the trades were reporting tracking #s well above AoU. The more conservative folks in this forum saw this right. I think it's safe to say that's the ceiling for a MCU solo film, though IM3 and soon CW will have reached that number for different reasons.

Reports are coming in that X-Men: Apocalypse took over most of CW's screens overseas, that's probably the simplest answer. It's just a really crowded marketplace nowadays.

 

[StormC]

It would be pretty funny if CW was the only billion dollar movie after 2015 had no less than 5.

IMO a second trailer for Rogue One with Vader in it should secure a billion for that. And Zootopia has shown good enough legs that it very well may crawl to a billion.

 

[Vincanws]

Is there Superhero movie fatigue? :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzwmJbXVgfk

 

[JB33]

Reports are coming in that X-Men: Apocalypse took over most of CW's screens overseas, that's probably the simplest answer. It's just a really crowded marketplace nowadays.

Never thought of this. I don't think AoU or IM3 had a big release at the end of May to contend with overseas. X-Men: Days of Future Past was released in 2014, right in between those 2.

EDIT: Actually, IM3 had Star Trek: Into Darkness to deal with in mid May and Fast & Furious 6 at the end of May but were either of those franchises big overseas 3 years ago, or at least as big as X-Men?