Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Mysteryman]

Is there Superhero movie fatigue? :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzwmJbXVgfk

Nope.

 

[JB33]

Nevermind, FF6 was pretty big overseas with $550M so credit to IM3 for still having the overseas success it did. Then again, hasn't CW been tracking behind IM3 overseas anyway? As in, before X-Men: A even hit foreign screens?

Meh, whatever. Don't mind me folks. I'm just a huge box office nerd. Don't want to come off like I'm complaining or dissatisfied with the movie's success.

 

[Ozbridge]

It would be pretty funny if CW was the only billion dollar movie after 2015 had no less than 5.

IMO a second trailer for Rogue One with Vader in it should secure a billion for that. And Zootopia has shown good enough legs that it very well may crawl to a billion.

Zootopia is locked to get 1B. It'll get another 20 million from Japan AT LEAST.

Nevermind, FF6 was pretty big overseas with $550M so credit to IM3 for still having the overseas success it did. Then again, hasn't CW been tracking behind IM3 overseas anyway? As in, before X-Men: A even hit foreign screens?

CW has been tracking behind IM3 since 2nd OS weekend (1st weekend domestic and China). At the end of 2nd OS weekend CW was 9M behind, 3rd OS weekend 17M behind and 4th weekend (when XMA is released OS) 29M behind (though CW's OS OW was 200M compared to IM3's 198M)

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Sooo this passing 400 dom is locked? I expect 400-405.

I wonder how it will do over memorial day.

 

[Kanon]

Sooo this passing 400 dom is locked? I expect 400-405.

Proyections say 410M, but I think it depends a long way of how it holds once XMen Apocalypse opens. It will have a little over 355M by then, so it could get ugly

 

[InCali]

Sooo this passing 400 dom is locked? I expect 400-405.

I wonder how it will do over memorial day.

I think that's a reasonable range. Right now it's about 10M ahead of IM3, but seems to be falling faster.

And, no, that's not a disappointment. If you're in the 400M range, no one is disappointed except people like me who wanted a crazy 600M DOM BO, but, hey, I'm CRAZY.

 

[InCali]

Zootopia is locked to get 1B. It'll get another 20 million from Japan AT LEAST.



CW has been tracking behind IM3 since 2nd OS weekend (1st weekend domestic and China). At the end of 2nd OS weekend CW was 9M behind, 3rd OS weekend 17M behind and 4th weekend (when XMA is released OS) 29M behind (though CW's OS OW was 200M compared to IM3's 198M)

Rogue One......

 

[Ozbridge]

Rogue One......

Yup, though it isn't, like, absolute locked (I was just replying to StormC's post that CW MIGHT be the only 1B movie this year, and Zootopia already made sure that it won't happen).

 

[third3ye]

CW already cleared $1b, Zootopia is next, and we should expect Finding Dory and Rogue One to be the remaining 2 films this year to join that club, all Disney films. The longshots to cross a billion are Fantastic Beasts and ID:R.

 

[JB33]

3rd weekend slightly lower than expected, with $32.94M
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

Domestic: $347,215,892
Foreign: $706,900,000
Worldwide: $1,054,115,892

 

[JB33]

IM3 had only a 30.5% drop on its 3rd Monday. A similar drop for CW would give it about $3.3M today, although I don't really know if we should be expecting that given it's starting to track BELOW IM3.

 

[The Caped Knight]

is there superhero movie fatigue? :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzwmjbxvgfk

hell no!

 

[InCali]

CW already cleared $1b, Zootopia is next, and we should expect Finding Dory and Rogue One to be the remaining 2 films this year to join that club, all Disney films. The longshots to cross a billion are Fantastic Beasts and ID:R.

I think if it had Will Smith in it, the chances would improve somewhat. Fantastic Beasts is really a wildcard. I don't think anyone really knows what it's going to do. It could be huge or just do really well. I'm kind of bummed it's opening on the heels of Dr. Strange. I wish Marvel could do something about that; like move it up a week and have it playing on Halloween....there'd still be some competition, but FB and DS will be drawing heavily from the same audience. I'm figuring Marvel/Disney prolly knows more about how to place a movie than I do, so I won't moan......too much.

 

[Ozbridge]

I think if it had Will Smith in it, the chances would improve somewhat. Fantastic Beasts is really a wildcard. I don't think anyone really knows what it's going to do. It could be huge or just do really well. I'm kind of bummed it's opening on the heels of Dr. Strange. I wish Marvel could do something about that; like move it up a week and have it playing on Halloween....there'd still be some competition, but FB and DS will be drawing heavily from the same audience. I'm figuring Marvel/Disney prolly knows more about how to place a movie than I do, so I won't moan......too much.

Yeah I don't know what's wrong with October that no blockbuster is ever released in that month (any sports/ national events in the US?) The Martian, Gone Girl and Gravity all performed well (though all are Oscar movies). DS can totally be released a week or 2 earlier so at least it has a shot at being No 1 for 3 weeks.

 

[warcam]

Perhaps these characters have simply reached their zenith. I predict $32 mil +/- this weekend, despite LucDisfilm19's best efforts.

3rd weekend slightly lower than expected, with $32.94M
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

I'll say $12M +/- this weekend. $15 if you count Monday.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Will it march Iron Man 3 numbers worldwide?

 

[Ozbridge]

Will it march Iron Man 3 numbers worldwide?

Not a chance.

OS at most 780M and domestic 415M if I'm being generous.

 

[JKKS085]

I'll say $12M +/- this weekend. $15 if you count Monday.

There is litteraly 0 chance it drops more than 50% over the 4 days. $19M for the 4 days should be the absolute floor even with direct competition (that would be a drop 10% higher than IM3 and 13% above AOU so that's a worst case scenario).

 

[JB33]

I'll say $12M +/- this weekend. $15 if you count Monday.

Good call. I was well over with my $35.8M prediction.

 

[King Maxx]

Will it a least each 400M? I fear Apocalypse might eat away its legs.

 

[warcam]

There is litteraly 0 chance it drops more than 50% over the 4 days. $19M for the 4 days should be the absolute floor even with direct competition (that would be a drop 10% higher than IM3 and 13% above AOU so that's a worst case scenario).

There's always a chance. It's going to lose a lot more screens this weekend.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

What about Jungle Book that can still hit a billion globally since it hasn't yet opened in Japan and Korea yet?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

What about Jungle Book that can still hit a billion globally since it hasn't yet opened in Japan and Korea yet?

Hong Kong (3 days from now) too. But a billion seems unlikely. Should top $900 million tho.

 

[Iceman]

This deserves to be a $400m film. Hope it gets there soon before too many other big films open.

 

[JB33]

Hong Kong (3 days from now) too. But a billion seems unlikely. Should top $900 million tho.

On its current trajectory, The Jungle Book should get well into the $900M area WITHOUT Korea, Japan and Hong Kong. With them it's still not certain, but if the movie is a huge hit in those markets there's actually a chance.

$940-$950M is my guess when all is said and done though.