Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Stark Bauer]

$400M is a lock. The real question is does it reach $420M and so on...I think the ceiling is $435M.

 

[JKKS085]

There's always a chance. It's going to lose a lot more screens this weekend.

Lets see how that unfolds but even with a significant theater loss that would be somewhat of an unprecedented drop over memorial day week end. That would quite literaly be the equivalent of BvS dropping 70% during its sophomore frame.

 

[Knight_SV]

Seems like what campea said about BvS reception causing CW box office drop is true. Mainstream audience who despise BvS might don't want to watch CACW because they think it's only hero vs hero battle just like the bad BvS

Maybe the HD leaker from china is a theater staff who is a ******** dc fanboy that upset about BvS result? Just guessing

 

[Cimocrevol]

Seems like what campea said about BvS reception causing CW box office drop is true. Mainstream audience who despise BvS might don't want to watch CACW because they think it's only hero vs hero battle just like the bad BvS

Maybe the HD leaker from china is a theater staff who is a ******** dc fanboy that upset about BvS result? Just guessing

What proof that you have that BvS is the cause of this? There is a host of other possibilities, such as the fact that this is the thirteenth film in the MCU, that it's the third comic-book-based movie released this year, and that its title doesn't include the word "Avengers," etc. It's quite comical that the hatred for BvS has gotten to a point that people are now blaming it for the less-than-expected performance of other movies. C'mon, man. Seriously, c'mon. This is just low. You don't even have any data to back your ridiculous assertion; all you have is conjecture. By the way, I have an HD-TC version of Civil War on bootleg and now I can't bring myself to see it in theaters.

 

[JOE]

What proof that you have that BvS is the cause of this? There is a host of other possibilities, such as the fact that this is the thirteenth film in the MCU, that it's the third comic-book-based movie released this year, and that its title doesn't include the word "Avengers," etc. It's quite comical that the hatred for BvS has gotten to a point that people are now blaming it for the less-than-expected performance of other movies. C'mon, man. Seriously, c'mon. This is just low. You don't even have any data to back your ridiculous assertion; all you have is conjecture. By the way, I have an HD-TC version of Civil War on bootleg and now I can't bring myself to see it in theaters.

Definitely a factor in Civil War not reaching it's box office potential. I'd rather that then because it was a terrible movie.

 

[Knight_SV]

What proof that you have that BvS is the cause of this? There is a host of other possibilities, such as the fact that this is the thirteenth film in the MCU, that it's the third comic-book-based movie released this year, and that its title doesn't include the word "Avengers," etc. It's quite comical that the hatred for BvS has gotten to a point that people are now blaming it for the less-than-expected performance of other movies. C'mon, man. Seriously, c'mon. This is just low. You don't even have any data to back your ridiculous assertion; all you have is conjecture. By the way, I have an HD-TC version of Civil War on bootleg and now I can't bring myself to see it in theaters.

Ask john campea, he's the one who said that.
I don't hate bvs, i have watched bvs with a hype and i initialy think the critics are wrong. But when i watching for the 2nd time, i think they are indeed right.

 

[Cimocrevol]

Ask john campea, he's the one who said that.
I don't hate bvs, i have watched bvs with a hype and i initialy think the critics are wrong. But when i watching for the 2nd time, i think they are indeed right.

An argument from authority is a logical fallacy; just because John Campea says it's true doesn't mean it is.

 

[gerrym51]

An argument from authority is a logical fallacy; just because John Campea says it's true doesn't mean it is.

Seems ironic that Zach Snyder is being 'blamed' for both BvS boxoffice AND
Civil WAR so -so boxoffice for a Marvel superteamup movie.

1.1 billion plus is not a failure by any means.

Is Zach going to be 'blamed' for apocalypse also----lol

 

[gerrym51]

An argument from authority is a logical fallacy; just because John Campea says it's true doesn't mean it is.

I like John Campea-however he has always seemed'self important' to me.

 

[gerrym51]

If you use the word 'fatigue' you get shouted down.

How about 'just not as excited' and can wait for PPV.

Home theaters and computers have changed the movie industry for all movies not just big comic book movies.

the problem is the budget for 'big movies' caused by heavy special effects and RDJ in some cases makes a big 'theater box office' more important

 

[Iceman]

Seems ironic that Zach Snyder is being 'blamed' for both BvS boxoffice AND
Civil WAR so -so boxoffice for a Marvel superteamup movie.

1.1 billion plus is not a failure by any means.

Is Zach going to be 'blamed' for apocalypse also----lol

I blame Zach for Sinister Six.

 

[marcvader]

1.2 billion is not a failure by any means.

 

[Tony Stark]

No there's no fatigue in the genre, but at the same time, when Avengers set the high water mark, it was always going to be a tough mark to beat. I had to laugh last year at all the ridiculous stories about AoU being a failure. This is basically performing slightly ahead of Iron Man 3, another film wich only in comic book forums is viewed a failure.

 

[Anita18]

I really do like what hafizbat said about Marvel using the existing characters to introduce lesser-known ones to the general audiences, and give them their own movies that perform well. Spreading the love, as it were.

Cause really, CW is the 13th MCU film and I honestly don't think that they're going to suddenly find a large new audience at this point in time. Avengers 2012 was likely the ceiling. They'd be foolhardy to think they could catch lightning in a bottle for every ensemble movie they release. But what they CAN do is give their existing audience good, fun movies made on a reasonable budget, on a regular schedule.

And piracy has happened to big movies before, and it likely doesn't affect the box office all THAT much. Maybe a few million. Most people going to the movies aren't that tech-savvy.

 

[third3ye]

Guys like Feige keep saying they hope rival CBMs do well because it's a tide that raises all ships. With Campea's comments, could it also work in reverse where a poorly received high profile CBM hurts the genre? In this case we have b2b hero v hero films in the same genre. Probably something we can never quantify but I wouldn't disregard that notion completely, aftershocks within a genre is entirely plausible and would theoretically affect both GA and critics. My personal opinion is that this probably doesn't account for a huge amount of money left on the table for CW, but could be worth as much as $50m or as high as $100m for WWBO. Just a wild guess.

 

[Chesterfield]

No there's no fatigue in the genre, but at the same time, when Avengers set the high water mark, it was always going to be a tough mark to beat. I had to laugh last year at all the ridiculous stories about AoU being a failure. This is basically performing slightly ahead of Iron Man 3, another film wich only in comic book forums is viewed a failure.

What do you expect? Some people here are absolutely certain that Thor: R will gross a $Billion.
It's crazy the expectations some people come up with and that's after the fact they've taken into account potential adverse variables. Honestly, if each IW film grosses less than $1.8 Billion you can expect the worst kind of overblown backlash.

 

[Chesterfield]

Guys like Feige keep saying they hope rival CBMs do well because it's a tide that raises all ships. With Campea's comments, could it also work in reverse where a poorly received high profile CBM hurts the genre? In this case we have b2b hero v hero films in the same genre. Probably something we can never quantify but I wouldn't disregard that notion completely, aftershocks within a genre is entirely plausible and would theoretically affect both GA and critics. My personal opinion is that this probably doesn't account for a huge amount of money left on the table for CW, but could be worth as much as $50m or as high as $100m for WWBO. Just a wild guess.

It's a fair point and there's validity to it...to an extent but as you said, the negativity that came with BvS wasn't and isn't enough to shave off $millions from CW. There are other variables at play here.

 

[gerrym51]

There is NO fatigue.
There is NO affect by piracy.
There is NO Affect by BvS.

then civil wars box office is just what it is.

 

[JB33]

What proof that you have that BvS is the cause of this? There is a host of other possibilities, such as the fact that this is the thirteenth film in the MCU, that it's the third comic-book-based movie released this year, and that its title doesn't include the word "Avengers," etc. It's quite comical that the hatred for BvS has gotten to a point that people are now blaming it for the less-than-expected performance of other movies. C'mon, man. Seriously, c'mon. This is just low. You don't even have any data to back your ridiculous assertion; all you have is conjecture. By the way, I have an HD-TC version of Civil War on bootleg and now I can't bring myself to see it in theaters.

So then you're part of the problem.

No offense, but it boggles my mind how so many people in the world would rather sit on their computer and download movies instead of getting out of the house and experiencing big movies on the big screen. I know some people like that and it just bugs me. Like, stop pirating, do yourself a favour and get out more often. People that do this aren't doing anyone, or even themselves, any favours.

 

[InCali]

1.2 billion is not a failure by any means.

I know. Right? I was sitting here reading and thinking "BO failure???". I'm sure there are a lot of factors that play into a movie reaching or not reaching its full potential. Maybe BvS played into that a little, maybe it being one of a long string of MCU movies did, maybe, maybe, maybe, but not only is Marvel making a ton of $$$ off this movie, they got a very well received movie that is setting the stage for the future. WB, unfortunately, can't say either; and I don't say that with any glee. I've said before that I rather liked BvS (saw it once), but that it was received poorly can't be denied.

 

[JB33]

There is NO fatigue.
There is NO affect by piracy.
There is NO Affect by BvS.

then civil wars box office is just what it is.

There's a reason for everything. It isn't "just what it is".

Personally, as I stated awhile back in this thread, I think IM3's box office was really inflated and that's why CW's box office looks disappointing as a result. Otherwise, you can't say that a bigger, better film with superior critical reception making less than an all around worse film released 3 years ago is "just what it is".

 

[InCali]

No there's no fatigue in the genre, but at the same time, when Avengers set the high water mark, it was always going to be a tough mark to beat. I had to laugh last year at all the ridiculous stories about AoU being a failure. This is basically performing slightly ahead of Iron Man 3, another film wich only in comic book forums is viewed a failure.

If SW 8 doesn't make 2B, it will be an utterly, miserable, failure and heads will roll.....

 

[JB33]

1.2 billion is not a failure by any means.

Nobody is saying that. Read through the last couple pages. For the most part there's actually an intelligent discussion going on.

 

[marcvader]

Nobody is saying that. Read through the last couple pages. For the most part there's actually an intelligent discussion going on.

I did.

 

[JB33]

No there's no fatigue in the genre, but at the same time, when Avengers set the high water mark, it was always going to be a tough mark to beat. I had to laugh last year at all the ridiculous stories about AoU being a failure. This is basically performing slightly ahead of Iron Man 3, another film wich only in comic book forums is viewed a failure.

I've seen a lot of things said about IM3 but I've never seen people say it's a failure, at least in terms of box office. If anything, that's a movie that overachieved.

The more I think about it, the more I realize that most people do get that Avengers movies are in a tier of their own. It's IM3 that is throwing expectations way off. It set the bar way too high for solo films.