Discussion in 'Captain America: The Winter Soldier' started by Mr. Dent, Apr 8, 2013.
100 billion dollars!
So what are some opening weekend predictions around here? With the great word of mouth and hype this movie is building I'm going with $80 mil.
65-80 million. Somewhere in that ballpark.
I'm kinda going to let my fangirl rose colored glasses predict and say 95-100mil opening weekend. I don't think it's opening a dime under 85mil though. If it does I'll be surprised.
Yes I know 95-100mil is over the top and if Thor 2 didn't do that why should Cap 2? Well it's my one crazy probably not going to happen prediction. I'm going out on a limb.
I'm sticking to an 87mil-97mil OW domestically, for now. But I want to see a 300+mil. domestic run so badly. HSX has the stock fluctuating between 210-220mil for the entire domestic run, but I really want this sucker to break out big time.
By the way, I love how The LEGO Movie may make a run for $250-300mil in February! I love seeing movies overperform like that during unexpected release dates. EVERYTHING IS AWESOME!!
I agree. Dark World opened to $85.7m, but the buzz for WS is much stronger. I'll say $90m-$100m.
Oh yes if the movie is as good as it looks I'd love for it to break out and do 300mil. Sometimes people are down on Cap calling him boring or whatever, I'd love to see his film kill it at the box office this time.
I think I laughed and chuckled more than the children at my screening of The Lego Movie. It's nice to see a good creative animated film do really well. That song has finally started fading from my mind. lol
I'm glad Suzanne brough up The Lego Movie's success because it proves a point that I've been making since Marvel placed Cap 2 in April and people were worried. The release date does not matter, if someone wants to see a movie they are going to go see it.
I think CATWS will end up in the same range - $85M - $95M OW. for the domestic total it could do $230M - $250M. That's a large spread but everything depends on its legs versus the competition. Of course it could stage a massive breakout and run up to $300M but that would take a perfect storm of great reviews, great word of mouth, excellent promotion and audience enthusiasm built to near-Avengers levels. If Marvel can position CATWS as an event and take advantage of the Easter holiday they might be able to leg it out for the entire month of April.
I know some might think Transcendence will be a factor in April but I honestly don't see that movie doing anything too special at the box office unless it gets great reviews.
I agree that in order for Captain America 2 to breakout it's going to need better reviews than the last couple of Marvel films and a perfect storm of buzz and marketing. That's what helped other pre-May movies that opened huge. We will see what the buzz is like a month before it's release.
I think the fact that the second trailer has over 11 million views in less than two weeks is a good sign in terms of audience interest. It's not the end all be all, of course, but it is a great number to have reached in a short amount of time.
I don't think will go higher than that but I've been wrong before.
I'm sayin $90 Mil domestic OW, $250 Mil domestic total, $650 Mil WW
based primarily off TDW's performance, and this movie looking better than it
I wish we could all bet on these predictions
The LEGO Movie was a perfect confluence of nostalgia, cheeky and witty script, great reviews, and weather issues that had families seeking movies and indoor activities for the whole family - in the north bay area, our shows were all sold out because the weather was horrible for a week. Perfect for a kid's movie. Even my two-year-old was super into it, and it was right up my husband's alley; he still collects LEGOs.
I'm really glad that Hollywood seems to be taking more chances regarding release dates. Boxoffice blockbusters shouldn't be reserved solely for the summer and holiday times. Jan.-Mar. should have good movies come out too, not just "dumping" ground for studio losses.
I'm hoping The Lego Movie makes studios rethink their release date strategy. More on topic, I really hope that TWS beats the current April BO record holder (FF6 or whatever I think
86.1 million?) If it works in Marvel's favor, they could be leading the industry in viewing an expanded summer blockbuster season starting in April. Though every month could be a potential blockbuster month.
Feige & co will be doing backflips if this movie does TDW type business. It will have to beat its domestic total by a fair amount to achieve that though. At least 250 id say. Not an easy task.
It does look better than T:TDW, I will be absolutely shocked if it doesn't turn out to be a better film.
Fast Five was technically on the cusp of the regular summer season anyway, since it premiered on April 29.
The only major releases in March are Divergent and Noah. I don't see either of those having huge box offices. I think TWS is coming at a perfect time when people will want to see something fun and exciting, and barring absolutely horrible reviews, this movie will deliver that.
I could see this doing 90-100 million opening weekend and over 600 million worldwide. Can't wait for all of you to see it.t:
My prediction for the opening weekend: $60 to $85 million.
The first one did $65 million, no way the second does less. I will go $90 million a little more than TTDW because the trailers are better.
Is it really a fair comparison though?
Even though they are both part of the MCU,
The two films approach their stories from different genres .
TWS is an action thriller with hints of political overtones .
TDW is a mix of Fantasy/Action/Adventure .
Wouldnt $60 million be less than the first one?
I dont see that happening .
Its just a prediction. $60 million for the worse case scenario and $85 million for the best case scenario.
I think the worst case is 75mil personally. At first I said 85mil but I changed that. I just think it's going to have good enough marketing and reviews to not go below that number. Also it's the first "Summer" blockbuster of the year, I believe that will help as well.
I agree with the 75 mill as as a possible worst case scenario,
But I think Sony is going to make the case that ASM2 is the first big Summer movie.