Days of Future Past 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction - Part 1

[Onslaught-]

DOFP was too dark to do a billion. You will probably never see other "kids" movies characters getting decapitated like X-Men characters did in DOFP. X-Men Apocalypse might do close to a billion thanks to DOFP.

Does FOX make any money off X-Men toys and merchandise?

 

[kedrell]

Darkness has nothing to do with it. 2 Batman films made a billion each and they were every bit as dark as DoFP.

 

[Tymminator]

There seriously no need to make excuses for anything, let's just be happy it's making what it is.

 

[Tony Stark]

This is severely disappointing even based on Friday's numbers I was expecting 95 or so based on Friday, but Saturday sales were abysmal. % wise the drop off was about the same as Godzilla, so I am skeptical about the Sunday estimate, and I think when the actuals this may be less than advertised.

Let's hope this thing has some legs, because it will be even more disappointing to see this fall off the map when Maleficent comes out.

 

[Raiden]

Box Office Mojo:

Weekend Estimates:
1. X-Men - $90.7 million
2. Godzilla - $31.4 million
3. Blended - $14.2 million... >

 

[Tony Stark]

Darkness has nothing to do with it. 2 Batman films made a billion each and they were every bit as dark as DoFP.

I don't think Darkness is a factor, but parents probably don't want younger kids seeing a full butt shot of Wolverine, and Xavier dropping the F-bomb. I loved the film, gave it a 9/10, but as a parent, I can't ignore the fact that it probably bothers some parents. I know it effected me with my younger kids not seeing it. I took my older one.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

DOFP was too dark to do a billion. You will probably never see other "kids" movies characters getting decapitated like X-Men characters did in DOFP. X-Men Apocalypse might do close to a billion thanks to DOFP.

Does FOX make any money off X-Men toys and merchandise?

IM3 had people blowing up and it made a billion. I know some people say "IM3 is for children" but I don't see how exploding people is more "kid friendly" than decapitation.

 

[kedrell]

In IM3 the villain was going to roast POTUS alive on national TV. I don't know how you get darker than that.

 

[Blackout]

X-Men was never going to be a bigger draw than Batman or the MCU films, so I don't get the fuss. It's doing great as it is, especially considering the state of the franchise before this one was released.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Damn, Godzilla sank like a rock in its second week

 

[HIA]

XMen can be as big as any superhero franchise. There isnt a real rule to put a franchise out.
Its all about marketing, word of mouth and the popular opinion of previous movies.

 

[Marvin]

In IM3 the villain was going to roast POTUS alive on national TV. I don't know how you get darker than that.

neck snapping would no doubt be the popular answer given how big a deal that was made into.

 

[Marvin]

XMen can be as big as any superhero franchise. There isnt a real rule to put a franchise out.
Its all about marketing, word of mouth and the popular opinion of previous movies.

Pretty much all of these properties have risen and fallen or just been low at some point. There definitely isn't a fixed rule. You just have to capture the relevance of the times. Quality helps, and building off of your momentum.

 

[Eddie]

DOFP was too dark to do a billion. You will probably never see other "kids" movies characters getting decapitated like X-Men characters did in DOFP. X-Men Apocalypse might do close to a billion thanks to DOFP.

Does FOX make any money off X-Men toys and merchandise?

What merchandise?

Fox does make money off of merch based on their films, but Marvel controls that. Go to Amazon and do a toy search for X-Men Days of Future Past and see what pops up.

As for the movie being too dark for a billion, you're absolutely right. That's why the movie version of the Titanic tragedy ended with Jack and Rose defeating the evil iceberg and celebrating with a dance party.

 

[kedrell]

Yes, Marvel retains all the merchandising rights.

 

[Eddie]

Yes, Marvel retains all the merchandising rights.

Not quite. They have all of the Spider-Man merchandise rights, and that's why there's tons of ASM2 toys. Disney sees a ton of money from that. IIRC, they would have to share the X-Men movie merch with Fox, and that's why they mostly stick to X-Men toys that don't tie in to the films. The only DoFP toys I've seen are some Carl's Jr. toys, and unlike the McDonald's ASM2 stuff, the film studio is credited.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

neck snapping would no doubt be the popular answer given how big a deal that was made into.

I love you.

Anyway I think the "too dark" thing is bunk. 2008 told us that.

 

[Sithborg]

Pretty much all of these properties have risen and fallen or just been low at some point. There definitely isn't a fixed rule. You just have to capture the relevance of the times. Quality helps, and building off of your momentum.

Yeah, there is a lot of doom and gloom over it not beating X3. But that is the wrong way to look at it. Compare the numbers to First Class. X-men are on an upswing. Good signs for Apocalypse.

Is it setting records, no. But it doesn't need to. The key is for it to make a profit in order to justify the sequels. The box office measuring contest among fanboys is taken way to seriously.

 

[DACrowe]

In IM3 the villain was going to roast POTUS alive on national TV. I don't know how you get darker than that.

I will paraphrase Roger Ebert: It is not what a movie is about, but how it is about it.

Iron Man 3 is actually fine to me. I enjoyed it for what it is. But it is certainly more family friendly and less intense than DOFP. The villains, while they do villainous things, are quite cartoonish and Tony Stark never feels like he is in any danger. We see future characters die in DOFP (even if that destiny is rewritten) and there are a lot of allusions to drug abuse, war, civil unrest, and a generally more thoughtful character arc for Xavier and even Mystique than in most superhero movies. Plus, there is all the language and the level of suspense put in the movie's finale.

Iron Man 3 is a fun romp, and it works very well in that parameter. I am not someone to care about Mandarin twists or the like.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I don't think Darkness is a factor, but parents probably don't want younger kids seeing a full butt shot of Wolverine, and Xavier dropping the F-bomb. I loved the film, gave it a 9/10, but as a parent, I can't ignore the fact that it probably bothers some parents. I know it effected me with my younger kids not seeing it. I took my older one.

Come on that's ticky tacky stuff. The parents who are that paranoid about that stuff probably take their kids to children's films exclusively anyways.

I loved the TDKR but that Bane scene where they stormed the stock market exchange kinda freaked me out even as an adult, that is much more "adult" imo.

Besides X-Men is a continuous franchise that's been out for 14 years and is probably aiming at a slightly older demo at this point, more similar to the Dark Knight films than the spider-man reboot for example.

Most of the people in my theatre seemed to have been fans of the original trilogy films which came out a decade ago at this point.

 

[DACrowe]

Quick edit.

I thought we were just discussing if DOFP is dark. Ah yes, I don't think that hurts its box office in the immediacy. But I will add that as a whole, the X-Men movies are a little more low-key than most superhero franchises, which goes back to how lowballed their budgets were for the first two entries.

In some ways DOFP has the same task Batman Begins and The Amazing Spider-Man had: rebuild the brand. Granted, X-Men: First Class is fantastic, but not many GA audience goers saw that. Since DOFP is their attempt to rebrand after the last massively viewed X-Men movie (TLS) turned out to be crap, it has somewhat of an uphill battle. But I think in general there is a ceiling to X-Men movies, because they are about mutants and "freaks" that lack the core playfulness of Spider-Man. And in Batman's case, he is a central draw and I'd say more conic.

I will be intrigued to see if this X-film can enjoy an under 60-percent drop, which might indicate stronger WOM than previous X-movies. And of course the sequel could be a real gauge. Either this rebuilds the brand over its theatrical run and Blu-ray/VOD lifespan like Batman Begins did...or it doesn't like The Amazing Spider-Man failed to do.

Time will tell.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I agree that smallness or being more "low key" is more of an issue to getting a billion dollar grossing X-Film than mature themes and tone.

 

[CB Fan]

X-Men can and should be as big as any other superhero franchise but when you focus on the same theme and same characters it's not hard to see why the audience can lose interest. Like I said earlier I think Apocalypse might be the start of the series winning back uninterested viewers as there is finally a villain who isn't Magneto who looks/is badass and hopefully they adapt his comic book look perfectly. You throw in some Transformers type action (not singers strong point) with characters the GA recognizes (Cyke, Gambit, Jean, Storm, Wolverine), and keep Singers dramatic character moments and I think we have a winner coming up in 2016. It would also help if they don't release it in an overcrowded summer.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Here are the second weekend drops for all of the X-Men related films:

X-MEN-56.9%
X2-53.2%
X3-66.9%
X-Men: First Class-56.2%
X-Men Origins: Wolverine-69%
The Wolverine-59.9%

I hope the film has a X2 or First Class type drop. I don't know though, I'd be surprised with a drop less than 58% to be honest. I think it's frontloaded like all big films and X-Men films but I think the word of mouth is better than Godzilla's or TASM 2's.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Here are the second weekend drops for all of the X-Men related films:

X-MEN-56.9%
X2-53.2%
X3-66.9%
X-Men: First Class-56.2%
X-Men Origins: Wolverine-69%
The Wolverine-59.9%

I hope the film has a X2 or First Class type drop. I don't know though, I'd be surprised with a drop less than 58% to be honest. I think it's frontloaded like all big films and X-Men films but I think the word of mouth is better than Godzilla's or TASM 2's.

The 2nd week drop has been the bane of the x-men series at the box office since the beginning. Funny enough but even though the drops for X2 and X1 look pretty acceptable by current day standards, they were actually considered pretty significant at the time when movies didn't drop as much week to week as they do now.