Days of Future Past 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction - Part 2

[mmaeric]

Hmmmmm ..... as I've been Googling like a mad man trying to source your guesstimate, I did find that Smurfs 2 managed to scrape together $150 million in promotional partnership, so perhaps we're closer to actually understanding the amount DOFP got to work with.

https://movies.yahoo.com/news/holy-smurf-sony-locks-down-150-million-promo-011454133.html

So are you finding my "close to 200 million" number more believable now?

 

[Rock Sexton]

So are you finding my "close to 200 million" number more believable now?

Not yet. Haven't found any movie which got that amount. Now if you want to guesstimate they got around $150mil then that's a little more realistic in lieu of MoS and Smurfs 2.

 

[Sithborg]

X2: $214mil domestic, $192mil international
X3: $234mil domestic, $224mil international

I guess it sort've depends on what you consider "exploding off of Goodwill". Domestically there was only $20mil difference, internationally almost $30mil.

X-men: First Class: $146 million DOM, $207 million INT
The Wolverine: $132 million DOM, $282 million INT

Sure, it looks bad when you compare it to the franchise's height. But, X2 and X3 were not where this franchise was. Unlike another franchise, even if DOFP's numbers could be considered weak, it still shows that the franchise is on the upswing. That is the important fact, especially when you are talking about sequels.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

X2: $214mil domestic, $192mil international
X3: $234mil domestic, $224mil international

I guess it sort've depends on what you consider "exploding off of Goodwill". Domestically there was only $20mil difference, internationally almost $30mil.

I'm personally looking more forward to AOA than I was for this film. However, I am curious how it will play with audiences seeing as though it's not likely to have the "two different casts team up" going for it. In order for it to really go nuts they've got to find higher domestic interest in the franchise.

The Last Stand dropped heavily after the first week. The first week is goodwill and advertising. After that people have seen it, it is all about the WOM.

 

[Rock Sexton]

X-men: First Class: $146 million DOM, $207 million INT
The Wolverine: $132 million DOM, $282 million INT

Sure, it looks bad when you compare it to the franchise's height. But, X2 and X3 were not where this franchise was. Unlike another franchise, even if DOFP's numbers could be considered weak, it still shows that the franchise is on the upswing. That is the important fact, especially when you are talking about sequels.

Why would we not compare it to X2 and X3 though? That's where the "collective" star power was with this franchise. The Wolverine is a standalone film without the aid of the other star players in the X-Men.

It's on the upswing internationally based on the #'s (as are many spectacle summer films right now), but not domestically where it's relatively average. We saw how much the BO draw suffered when the typical names weren't headlining in X:FC. Will that be the case again come AOA? That's what we'll find out.

The Last Stand dropped heavily after the first week. The first week is goodwill and advertising. After that people have seen it, it is all about the WOM.

No doubt.

 

[sf2]

domestically, has Xman suffered the same with Spidey that the local audiences have tired of seeing both characters?
we know that DoFP is having great WOM.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Not yet. Haven't found any movie which got that amount. Now if you want to guesstimate they got around $150mil then that's a little more realistic in lieu of MoS and Smurfs 2.

Sequels to successful kid's films can do that. The sponsorship opportunities are large when you are talking about kids. Think of all the kid products, Happy Meals, cereal, lunchboxes, toys, backpacks, crayons, etc, you can slap the Smurfs on. X-Men doesn't have that kind of chances, at least not this more mature series. They aren't like the Avengers, who are a merch giant.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Adjusted X2 and X3 made like 280m, so domestically X-Men were still selling more tix back then.

This is a a solid win though, the franchise had to pick itself back up and those numbers are just about what most were predicting. Given the positive wom on the flick the franchise should be headed for a larger opening when Apocalypse hits. Wasn't expecting this flick to hit 900m or anything.

I am expecting this newer X tril to play out at the box office with similar increases to the original though. Apocalypse should make bank.

I think that's why quite a few expected around 270-300mil but I always felt it was a little unfair to have expectations quite that high for a series that was in such trouble.

Now the budget is over 200mil so expecting 240-250mil was fair. So yeah I do find the domestic numbers disappointing with an upside. The upside being that the film is going to do better than First Class.

Basically Fox ****ed up their cash cow and have to start from scratch in order to have a shot of reaching such high domestic numbers.

 

[Rock Sexton]

Sequels to successful kid's films can do that. The sponsorship opportunities are large when you are talking about kids. Think of all the kid products, Happy Meals, cereal, lunchboxes, toys, backpacks, crayons, etc, you can slap the Smurfs on. X-Men doesn't have that kind of chances, at least not this more mature series. They aren't like the Avengers, who are a merch giant.

Probably explains why they had over 100 promotional partners.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Probably explains why they had over 100 promotional partners.

Yep, exactly. You need someone for the juice boxes, someone else for the sneakers, someone else for the PJs, someone else fo the lunchables, so on and so forth.

 

[JP]

I guess this film needed to make $400 million domestic to be considered the slightest bit of a success. Foolish of us to see all the positives. What a shame. What a shame.

 

[SAUspartan]

I guess this film needed to make $400 million domestic to be considered the slightest bit of a success. Foolish of us to see all the positives. What a shame. What a shame.

It's going to out gross it's budget. That's a win in my book. It will be profitable. Profit = Win.

I would say something about why Certain people are complaining but that would start something that would probably get me banned so I won't. Cause this forum doesn't like the studio debates. But that's basically why some people seem giddy it didn't gross what other certain movies did.

 

[MarvelU]

Why would we not compare it to X2 and X3 though? That's where the "collective" star power was with this franchise. The Wolverine is a standalone film without the aid of the other star players in the X-Men.

It's on the upswing internationally based on the #'s (as are many spectacle summer films right now), but not domestically where it's relatively average. We saw how much the BO draw suffered when the typical names weren't headlining in X:FC. Will that be the case again come AOA? That's what we'll find out.
.

It will be interesting, but I feel the First Class cast star power has risen a bit since First Class. Jennifer Lawrence in particular. Besides the next film is rumored to have old cast members return, and an introduction of younger versions of characters from the original trilogy. The scale of that movie is suppose to be big as well, since it's part disaster film according to one of the writers, plus a new villain. Apocalypse could be what breaks the ceiling of this franchise domestically, but time will tell.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I guess this film needed to make $400 million domestic to be considered the slightest bit of a success. Foolish of us to see all the positives. What a shame. What a shame.

There is such an ocean between success and failure, why make it an either or situation? Why go all dramatic when numbers are shown for what they actually are? The new "golden" domestic number is $300m. Anything above that is terrific. That doesn't mean anything under that is god awful, but perspective is needed when examining the numbers.

 

[Malik]

6oo million is pretty good, it will make it's budget back. And 7oo million is now possible. Seriously dofp was never going to make avengers money so I don't get this doom and gloom.

 

[def28]

Basically Fox ****ed up their cash cow and have to start from scratch in order to have a shot of reaching such high domestic numbers.

Exactly, they gotta build. I never saw a scenario where 300m was gonna happen with this franchises recent track record. Apocalypse numbers are really going to be the one to show if Singer's take on the franchise can have a major box office increase at this point. One of these two X flicks will be their peak for awhile, at least until a solid reboot sequel.

 

[Rock Sexton]

It will be interesting, but I feel the First Class cast star power has risen a bit since First Class. Jennifer Lawrence in particular. Besides the next film is rumored to have old cast members return, and an introduction of younger versions of characters from the original trilogy. The scale of that movie is suppose to be big as well, since it's part disaster film according to one of the writers, plus a new villain. Apocalypse could be what breaks the ceiling of this franchise domestically, but time will tell.

For as big a name as Lawrence has become, her affects on this franchise aren't felt quite the way you'd think, specifically domestically. I'm only going to assume Jackman will be back, but if they replace the other characters like Storm with younger actors then it's going to depend on who that is exactly.

I'm really interested in seeing Apocalypse though. That glimpse of him was sort've like the chains being broken from the sameness (war on mutants) of all of these X films for me.

Apocalypse numbers are really going to be the one to show if Singer's take on the franchise can have a major box office increase at this point.

That's what I was saying when it comes to AOA.

There is such an ocean between success and failure, why make it an either or situation? Why go all dramatic when numbers are shown for what they actually are? The new "golden" domestic number is $300m. Anything above that is terrific. That doesn't mean anything under that is god awful, but perspective is needed when examining the numbers.

It's called marginalizing a differing opinion by way of exaggeration. LOL

Btw ..... approximately 59 films have scored more than $200mil, but less than $250 million at the domestic office.
34 films with $250mil, but under $300mil.
47 films have been over $300mil.

 

[antonydelfini]

This is a great success. No other way to spin it. Could it have done better domestically due to its 200mil budget? Sure. But lets not forget the domestic performance of the last 3 X-Men movies, and the critical panning of X3 and Origins that destroyed the audience's goodwill towards the X-Men movies that was never that big anyway.

Its gonna do close or maybe a little more than 700mil worldwide, when the franchise best was 459mil worldwide. Its also gonna do more than the 1st 2 Iron Man movies, the 2 Thor flicks, and MOS. And it has 92% rotten tomatoes rating. This is a commercial and critical success, and has brought the momentum back to the franchise.

With the next movie, we have young Cyclops Storm and Jean, Tatum as Gambit, and freaking Apocalypse. If the movie is good, then I see it beating the commercial success of DOFP.

 

[Malik]

So pirates of the Caribbean 4 wasn't profitable for disney? It cost 250 million and made 240 million domestically.

 

[WC Avengers]

Great film and a great success.....

 

[Malik]

Also x-men doesn't have action figures and tons of merchandising mcu and dc have, some people complained about the promo but that's as far as it goes since disney owns merchandising rights.

 

[def28]

So pirates of the Caribbean 4 wasn't profitable for disney? It cost 250 million and made 240 million domestically.

I'm sure rgardless of it making a billion ww Disney wasn't happy with those domestic numbers compared to the dough the other ones made. The previous flicks all made in between 300-400m. That's a big drop. And it had 3D/inflation as well. International numbers were huge there, without that yeah it would have disappointed.

 

[Raiden]

Also x-men doesn't have action figures and tons of merchandising mcu and dc have, some people complained about the promo but that's as far as it goes since disney owns merchandising rights.

That's why if Fox is smart, they will try to work something out with Disney so they can start to produce merchandises for X-Men movies. But Fox seems to be okay with the status quo, or maybe they just don't want to give up anything in a negotiation with Disney.

 

[mmaeric]

I'm sure rgardless of it making a billion ww Disney wasn't happy with those domestic numbers compared to the dough the other ones made. The previous flicks all made in between 300-400m. That's a big drop. And it had 3D/inflation as well. International numbers were huge there, without that yeah it would have disappointed.

No doubt they were disappointed with the domestic numbers for pirates 4 BUT the movie was a HUGE success and I guarantee you they were ecstatic with the money

Explains why they want a sequel so bad

 

[Malik]

Yeah but do remember lots of people started losing interest in the x-flicks after X3 and origins. My friends were sceptical about dofp and ended up loving it. It's bouncing back slowly but surely.