Dr Strange box office prediction thread

[los pollos]

X-Men movies don't have a big fanbase, Jackman's Wolverine inside an X-Men movie does.

X-men was the most popular franchise in the comics/cartoons, and to see it kind of flounder around in 2016 is pretty sad.

X-men Apocalypse didn't have much buzz.

That I agree with. The trailers just did not look good for that movie, and even I didn't see until it came out on blu ray.

 

[Mandon Knight]

Largest box office total of a single character launch film in the MCU...

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=marvel716.htm

 

[InCali]

Largest box office total of a single character launch film in the MCU...

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=marvel716.htm

Which you didn't watch.

 

[JKKS085]

Not to derail from those excellent number but that is a noticably softery recovery (and therefore a steeper drop) than TTDW on the same week end. The reason ? A much bigger theater drop. That's really too bad because it is still posting a very strong PTA. I really hope it's not another Civil War scenario and that it'll stabilize next week despite the competition.
It's running about 10% ahead of TTDW after 4 week ends. TTDW went on to make another 20M so DS is still on track for a 227/230M finish.

 

[iEquinox]

Not to derail from those excellent number but that is a noticably softery recovery (and therefore a steeper drop) than TTDW on the same week end. The reason ? A much bigger theater drop. That's really too bad because it is still posting a very strong PTA. I really hope it's not another Civil War scenario and that it'll stabilize next week despite the competition.
It's running about 10% ahead of TTDW after 4 week ends. TTDW went on to make another 20M so DS is still on track for a 227/230M finish.

The estimates were a bit lower than the actual numbers.

It made $13,737,945 over the weekend for a total of $205,778,872. It dropped 22.65%, just 0.74% more than TDW. If it didn't lose as many theaters it would probably have dropped less than TDW did.

It made 24% more than TDW in the 4th weekend, and as you pointed out about 10% more in total. TDW made about 20m after the 4th weekend, if it continues to make 10-24% more than TDW, it will make 22-25m more from this point forward, which would lead to a total of 227-231m.

Doctor Strange will face tough competition once Rogue One hits(weekend 7), but TDW had The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug as competition one week earlier in its release(weekend 6). I expect Rogue one to make a lot more than The Hobbit, but since it will come a week later, that should balance it out a bit. (Basically Rogue One will take a bigger share of a smaller total)

So I pretty much agree, it should at least reach the high 220M range, with a decent chance of reaching 230M+. But I don't think it can go much higher than 230M, it's bound to have a big drop next weekend, and it will probably lose a lot of theaters once Rogue One opens in weekend 7.

 

[los pollos]

According to http://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart , DS actually increased almost $700k from the estimates for the 4 day holiday weekend. It's currently at $205,778,872 domestically, up from $205,093,475 estimates. I think it movie can do $230-235M at the rate it's dropping.

 

[KangConquers]

X-men was the most popular franchise in the comics/cartoons, and to see it kind of flounder around in 2016 is pretty sad.



That I agree with. The trailers just did not look good for that movie, and even I didn't see until it came out on blu ray.

I've always theorized the reason the X-Men never exploded the way Spider-Man did in the early 00s was that Spider-Man appealed to an older age group. Baby boomers and gen-xers grew up on Spider-Man, where as X-Men were mostly a gen-x phenomenon.

As for the Wolverine argument, X-Men without Wolverine vs. Wolverine without X-Men has basically been a stalemate. Apocalypse limped passed 500 M based on the success of DoFP, but only DoFP and Deadpool have broken out on the level of the MCU films.

 

[Flint Marko]

Not to derail from those excellent number but that is a noticably softery recovery (and therefore a steeper drop) than TTDW on the same week end. The reason ? A much bigger theater drop. That's really too bad because it is still posting a very strong PTA. I really hope it's not another Civil War scenario and that it'll stabilize next week despite the competition.
It's running about 10% ahead of TTDW after 4 week ends. TTDW went on to make another 20M so DS is still on track for a 227/230M finish.

What's the Civil War scenario?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

What's the Civil War scenario?

I think JKKS085 is talking about the domestic multiplier of CA:CW. 2.29 was really low for a brilliant CBM like CA:CW.

 

[Dark Raven]

Is this likely to surpass SS, Deadpool or Batman v Superman?

 

[Kev4000]

Is this likely to surpass SS, Deadpool or Batman v Superman?

Nope I cant see that.

 

[marcvader]

It's at $615 right now so I'm guessing it will end between $675-695.

 

[JKKS085]

What's the Civil War scenario?

Great reviews>Great public reception/cinemascore/wom>Encouraging early legs>Tough competition>Steep theater drops despite better than average PTA>Disappointing late legs.

Although there are multiple factors other than the competition and theater drops that explain Civil War's frontloaded run.
Obviously, actuals paint a more favorable picture than the early estimates and DS is having a pretty healthy run (and posting a multiplier that is already on par with Suicide Squad, and that is after just 4 weeks of release) putting to bed theories that the genre was becoming inherently more frontloaded (especially after the disastrous performance of BvS on that front).
Monday numbers are still solidly ahead of TTDW's but DS' lead is getting slightly smaller.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Any Japan predictions?

 

[JKKS085]

Any Japan predictions?

Around the 10M mark if it doesn't have some kind of unusually big local challenger.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

That's pretty paltry.

 

[JKKS085]

That's pretty paltry.

There are a few exceptions but in general the genre doesn't fare well in Japan.

 

[JB33]

Is this likely to surpass SS, Deadpool or Batman v Superman?

Nope.

 

[ADollarADay]

This is why I couldn't be happier that Marvel is safely in Disney's hands. If only they could buy DC as well... Not trying to start a war, I just enjoy their takes a lot more. I wondering what the DCeU would have been like under Feige's watch?

Disney buying DC (or better yet WB with CNN on the side) has been something that always made sense to me. As is right now though, they will only be able to buy it if Trump blocks the ATT TWX merger (something he said he wants to do) or if the DOJ says that ATT has to sell some TWX's assets in order for the merger to go through.

 

[combocaz]

Im thinking 667mil it finishes at.

 

[rayc1971]

Im thinking 667mil it finishes at.

still a shot at 700mill ww

 

[Stark Bauer]

I'm going to predict a final domestic total between $225 M-230 M. $228 Million lol

 

[Wildcard]

Im thinking 667mil it finishes at.

I believe it still has a big chance at finishing well over $700 million worldwide.

 

[JKKS085]

I'm going to predict a final domestic total between $225 M-230 M. $228 Million lol

Seems to be exactly what it's heading for right now.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Strange is running out of gas overseas.

I'd say 675 m WW is the highest it goes.

Which beats Thor 2 and MOS.