Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Docker2.0]

I could be wrong but it appears your talking to yourself.

Wait! Man I have to leave this alcohol alone! Philippine alcohol is no joke! Drinking Tanduay right now. I quoted someone but he somehow tricked me into quoting myself. Screw you Darth!

 

[Docker2.0]

I agree Sat wasn't as busy, but that is why Sunday was more busy then usual.

Dude that...............what?!


Next Monday...............you won't hear the end of how this thing made over $100M DOM that weekend. Get ready.

__________________

Happy KDM?

 

[Iceman]

Will be interesting to see how this Monday compared to the first film's Monday.

 

[KDM1986]

Dude that...............what?!


Next Monday...............you won't hear the end of how this thing made over $100M DOM that weekend. Get ready.

__________________

Happy KDM?

It just made me do a double take, then you said I was wrong and looked again and thought ok either I'm drunk or he is lol.

 

[Docker2.0]

It just made me do a double take, then you said I was wrong and looked again and thought ok either I'm drunk or he is lol.

So what if I am? I don't have a problem.



Anyway, back on topic, I think this movie will be at $270M DOM by Friday and by Monday will be at $375M. I think this thing is in for a huge second weekend.

 

[Mjölnir]

Extremely impressive numbers again, especially since it was estimated that the boxing fight affected the revenue by around 9%.

 

[8ulk]

To answer some questions / posts.

1. 191 mil O.W. is still great. there is no dissapointment for the love of God its the 2nd best of all time.

2. 500 mil total US is still very much in play. Its pretty difficult not to hit it. 475 mil. is a 100% thing. 500-575 should be the final gross.(depending on legs)

3. Boxofficemojo estimates that the 3 sports events took a 5-10 mil from AoU.

4. OS is still gonna be huge definately over 1 bil. thats a lock. Im guessing 1,15-1,3 bil with 375-450 mil from China. Which brings the WW total to 1,65-1,85 bil .

5. 250+ mil O.W. numbers were NEVER epxected. the estimates were from 210 - 230 mil.

6. As far the original Avengers i cant remeber the early O.W. tracking numbers but i remember the total WW gross numbers and they were 850 mil WW. little did they know.

7. (no pun intended) Star Wars 7 TFA is not gonna make 200 mil O.W. not even close. it has little actual chance of beating FF7 147 mil record. its opening in December and that speaks for itself. No other movie in cinematic history opened anywhere near huge in that month. 85-125 mil should be the numbers for O.W. maybe it will get close to FF7 but thats a big maybe.

 

[warriorking]

To answer some questions / posts.

1. 191 mil O.W. is still great. there is no dissapointment for the love of God its the 2nd best of all time.

2. 500 mil total US is still very much in play. Its pretty difficult not to hit it. 475 mil. is a 100% thing. 500-575 should be the final gross.(depending on legs)

3. Boxofficemojo estimates that the 3 sports events took a 5-10 mil from AoU.

4. OS is still gonna be huge definately over 1 bil. thats a lock. Im guessing 1,15-1,3 bil with 375-450 mil from China. Which brings the WW total to 1,65-1,85 bil .

5. 250+ mil O.W. numbers were NEVER epxected. the estimates were from 210 - 230 mil.

6. As far the original Avengers i cant remeber the early O.W. tracking numbers but i remember the total WW gross numbers and they were 850 mil WW. little did they know.

7. (no pun intended) Star Wars 7 TFA is not gonna make 200 mil O.W. not even close. it has little actual chance of beating FF7 147 mil record. its opening in December and that speaks for itself. No other movie in cinematic history opened anywhere near huge in that month. 85-125 mil should be the numbers for O.W. maybe it will get close to FF7 but thats a big maybe.

Exactly...
It will open big for a December but lets be real...Most people are not going to drop everything during the Xmas rush to go see Star Wars....
They will schedule it when they have time and not before...

 

[Tymminator]

I think it will do fine in December. You have all of these people with families now who watched the original trilogy in the theaters when they were kids. And here comes something from their childhood...they are likely to go and bring their families.

I won't speak for everyone but I'll speak for myself, I'M going to rush out and see it, no doubt.

I don't think it will have adequate competition either.

 

[Wildcard]

SW7 will do great numbers but it won't not break any of AoU's records (or the first Avengers film, for that matter). At least that's my take on it.

So, AoU should hit $1 billion before the week is out, probably before we really get into the mid portion of the week.

I still see a $1.6-$1.8 billion WW total when it's all said & done.

 

[Vartha]

Imagine what the box office would be at if there wasn't a Boxing event? lol
I think there will be a bigger audience than an average 2nd weekend for a film

 

[ares834]

So apparently Monday's number was 12.6 million which is nearly a 75% drop. Not very good. Seems that 500 million is now a pipe dream.

 

[Vartha]

Give it a chance. Look how long the first film was in theaters. Age Of Ultron could have bigger and longer weeks, you never know

 

[Jplaya2023]

So apparently Monday's number was 12.6 million which is nearly a 75% drop. Not very good. Seems that 500 million is now a pipe dream.

wow, thats 2 bad. I'm going to go see the movie again but those numbers are telling.

 

[Mysteryman]

how do the OW Monday numbers compare to the original?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

So apparently Monday's number was 12.6 million which is nearly a 75% drop. Not very good. Seems that 500 million is now a pipe dream.

Front loaded, less interest.

Give it a chance. Look how long the first film was in theaters. Age Of Ultron could have bigger and longer weeks, you never know

Based on what Vartha? I think it could ave a big second weekend, but this is a huge drop for Monday if true.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

how do the OW Monday numbers compare to the original?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=avengers11.htm

It dropped 66.9% down to $18.9m. It isn't even close. This isn't surprising considering the reaction online.

 

[Vartha]

Front loaded, less interest.


Based on what Vartha? I think it could ave a big second weekend, but this is a huge drop for Monday if true.

I just read on FB (can't find the article now) that over 50% of the people who watched the Boxing event would have seen AoU if they we're watching Boxing.
Cinco De Mayo is today, I'm sure many people were with family weekend for that. My neighbors used a city park across from my complex for that this weekend

 

[Tony Stark]

So apparently Monday's number was 12.6 million which is nearly a 75% drop. Not very good. Seems that 500 million is now a pipe dream.

That's not a bad drop, that's about average, around what IM1, IM3, CA:TWS had for Monday. A1's Monday drop was very low for that time of year, but AoU had the -11% Sunday which is almost unheard of, so it's expected that todays drop would be sharper.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I just read on FB (can't find the article now) that over 50% of the people who watched the Boxing event would have seen AoU if they we watching Boxing.
Cinco De Mayo is today, I'm sure many people were with family weekend for that. My neighbors used a city park across from my complex for that this weekend

Then why was Monday so low? I agree the second weekend will be good. Those that missed it, plus no competition this coming weekend. But the week after, it has a ton of competition. You can already seen the repeating viewings will be down, same with 3D. I still think it has a shot at $500m, but it is going to fall way short of the first film.

 

[Tony Stark]

Then why was Monday so low? I agree the second weekend will be good. Those that missed it, plus no competition this coming weekend. But the week after, it has a ton of competition. You can already seen the repeating viewings will be down, same with 3D. I still think it has a shot at $500m, but it is going to fall way short of the first film.

Because it's not low it's average for this time of year, and it only had an -11% drop on Sunday, due to the fight.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

That's not a bad drop, that's about average, around what IM1, IM3, CA:TWS had for Monday. A1's Monday drop was very low for that time of year, but AoU had the -11% Sunday which is almost unheard of, so it's expected that todays drop would be sharper.

IM3 sunk like a stone. Horrible multiplier. The other two had far better reviews and general receptions.

 

[Tony Stark]

IM3 sunk like a stone. Horrible multiplier. The other two had far better reviews and general receptions.

Iron Man 1 had a 3x multiplier and had almost the same Monday drop. It's Sunday drop was -30% vs -11% for AoU. You do understand that the higher number Sunday meant a steeper drop on Monday. A1 had a -18% drop which is excellent. AoU's sunday drop was simply a measure of people watching the sporting event seeing it later on the weekend. It won't happen again for a long, long time.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Because it's not low it's average for this time of year, and it only had an -11% drop on Sunday, due to the fight.

How many films with 2.6x multipler or higher in May drop 75% on the first Monday?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Iron Man 1 had a 3x multiplier and had almost the same Monday drop.

Iron Man was brilliantly received. Same with TWS, plus TWS came out at the start of April, with less comp. AoU hasn't been nearly as well received, even if I think it is worlds better then the first. Next weekend is open, but the rest of the summer is stacked.