Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[I SEE SPIDEY]

This "it's going to do 100-120 million next weekend" stuff is ridiculous. I see a good Monday and then decent weekdays. After that a 55-60% drop.

I say it does 80million.

 

[kedrell]

I'd love it if it bounced back that hard that it crossed the $100m mark on it's 2nd weekend but the box office analyst in me won't let me say I think that's going to happen. This should definitely still have the 2nd biggest #2 weekend ever after the 1st movie. All it needs is $75.7m next weekend for that and that's a lock.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I don't see how. Both had a decade of absence to build up demand. LOTR had phenominal goodwill attached to it as would any continuation of that mythos. SW is coming off the hated prequels which tarnished the brand heavily but is mitigated somewhat by the original cast returning.

I'd say they're on even footing among the general audience in terms of anticipation prior to release.

Even Disney knows what Star Wars means to them. They are tearing up their parks just for Star Wars. The reaction to the last trailer says it all. Nothing is close, to the hype for TFA. Not AoU, not DoJ, not anything.

 

[Docker2.0]

The original did $100M+ and there isn't any notable events going on that weekend with no big movie coming out. Gawd I can't wait until next Monday to remind all of you how wrong you are!!!

 

[kedrell]

Oh please, people love the new Star Wars trailer more then the entirety of GotG.

Boom, a billion dollars in one frame.

I see no proof or compelling argument in this. I see only the hope of a fan. Makes little difference to me as both are outer space junk and I typically avoid that stuff. I was always more of an Indiana Jones fan.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

This "it's going to do 100-120 million next weekend" stuff is ridiculous. I see a good Monday and then decent weekdays. After that a 55-60% drop.

I say it does 80million.

I see a drop similar to IM3. The reaction hasn't been fantastic.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I see no proof or compelling argument in this. I see only the hope of a fan. Makes little difference to me as both are outer space junk and I typically avoid that stuff.

You think any box office expert with a straight face would thnk TFA isn't going to make more then the first GotG? Like in real life?

 

[kedrell]

Even Disney knows what Star Wars means to them. They are tearing up their parks just for Star Wars. The reaction to the last trailer says it all. Nothing is close, to the hype for TFA. Not AoU, not DoJ, not anything.

I don't see what you're seeing. I don't have fan-tinted glasses on.


Sure SW is huge. So is Middle Earth, so is the MCU, so is DC(well there are some issues to work out over there).

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The original did $100M+ and there isn't any notable events going on that weekend with no big movie coming out. Gawd I can't wait until next Monday to remind all of you how wrong you are!!!

Poor Docker knows as much about BO as he does boxing.

 

[BlackDoomShadow]

I'm surprised there's a debate going on here. Star Wars is arguably the most popular fiction franchise on the planet (Harry Potter could make an argument). The Force Awakens is probably the most anticipated film since The Phantom Menace.

With that said, I agree that a December opening makes it logistically impossible to beat Avengers.

 

[kedrell]

I see a drop similar to IM3. The reaction hasn't been fantastic.

I agree somewhat but with a better % than IM3. That coupled with it coming from a higher starting point should mean it's still around $10m higher than IM3's 2nd weekend.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I don't see what you're seeing. I don't have fan-tinted glasses on.


Sure SW is huge. So is Middle Earth, so is the MCU, so is DC(well there are some issues to work out over there).

December is going to be so much fun here. I am fan, but I am also realistic. I haven't claimed it is going to beat Avatar. But I can totally see it as #2 or #3 all time by this time next year.

 

[Vartha]

I just think most people are waiting, I mean they probably remember the lines last time and are delaying seeing it.

 

[kedrell]

You think any box office expert with a straight face would thnk TFA isn't going to make more then the first GotG? Like in real life?

I never said that. I was talking about whatever SW movie is going up against GotG2 in May, 2017.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm surprised there's a debate going on here. Star Wars is arguably the most popular fiction franchise on the planet (Harry Potter could make an argument). The Force Awakens is probably the most anticipated film since The Phantom Menace.

With that said, I agree that a December opening makes it logistically impossible to beat Avengers.

Little known fact. The two highest grossing films of all time opened in December.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I agree somewhat but with a better % than IM3. That coupled with it coming from a higher starting point should mean it's still around $10m higher than IM3's 2nd weekend.

I think the percentage will be similar. That is what I mean with IM3. Though unlike IM3, there isn't any great counter programming for AoU until the third weekend. Then you have Pitch Perfect 2 and Mad Max, which is straight up competition.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I see a drop similar to IM3. The reaction hasn't been fantastic.

I think the reaction is overall positive but it doesn't feel like the same reaction the first film got. Iron Man 3's drop gets it 80million.

I think in order for it to do 100milion it would have had to break the opening weekend record. I just believe that some fans can't except that it won't be doing as well as the first overall. 475-500+mil is not a failure though. Overseas in places like China it will beat the first film but that was never in the cards in North America.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I never said that. I was talking about whatever SW movie is going up against GotG2 in May, 2017.

You mean the sequel to VII. That movie? t:

I just think most people are waiting, I mean they probably remember the lines last time and are delaying seeing it.

Really Vartha? t:

 

[Vartha]

The original did $100M+ and there isn't any notable events going on that weekend with no big movie coming out. Gawd I can't wait until next Monday to remind all of you how wrong you are!!!

Yeah THIS area had MANY MANY other things going on. The band Chicago was in town, there was a new Motorcycle rally, a few proms and Cinco de mayo tomorrow, I'd say at least next weekend should be a alittle bigger crowds

 

[Docker2.0]

I just think most people are waiting, I mean they probably remember the lines last time and are delaying seeing it.

Yep! I went opening night and man do I regret it. Packed theater with people who wouldn't shut up. If I can go back in time I would have waited a week to see it. But I have no will power. A lot of people couldn't see it because of the fight. It will pick up next weekend.

 

[BlackDoomShadow]

Little known fact. The two highest grossing films of all time opened in December.

I was talking about opening weekend. Of course it will outgross Avengers in total.

 

[Vartha]

You mean the sequel to VII. That movie? t:


Really Vartha? t:

I can't say for sure lol I just know a few people who had other things going to see it this weekend and remembered the lines last time lol

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think the reaction is overall positive but it doesn't feel like the same reaction the first film got. Iron Man 3's drop gets it 80million.

I think in order for it to do 100milion it would have had to break the opening weekend record. I just believe that some fans can't except that it won't be doing as well as the first overall. 475-500+mil is not a failure though. Overseas in places like China it will beat the first film but that was never in the cards in North America.

I agree it was unlikely to beat the first film, but saying there was no chance? I don't agree.

Also while the reaction is overall positive, there seems to be a lot of hate online. Specifically about two things. Also while I found it to be light years ahead of the first film, it doesn't play it nearly as safe an thus it isn't as overall crow pleasing.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I was talking about opening weekend. Of course it will outgross Avengers in total.

My mistake. Sorry.

I can't say for sure lol I just know a few people who had other things going to see it this weekend and remembered the lines last time lol

That happens with most films. I usually wait until weekdays to see most films because of this. But enough to shift the box office that much? That is a lot of people.

 

[kedrell]

I'm surprised there's a debate going on here. Star Wars is arguably the most popular fiction franchise on the planet (Harry Potter could make an argument). The Force Awakens is probably the most anticipated film since The Phantom Menace.

With that said, I agree that a December opening makes it logistically impossible to beat Avengers.

You could just as easily say the first Avengers or the 2nd or TDK or TDKR were as anticipated as you claim TFA to be. There's no way to qualify this stuff.

The MCU is 'arguably' the most popular fiction franchise on the planet as well, right now. That's the thing, this is all shifting and in a state of movement. Nothing remains static for long. If people think Star Wars is currently more popular than it's ever been before, I'd say somebody with that outlook has been drinking the kool-aide too much. Because these aren't SW's glory days. It has damage control to do from the prequels.