Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Tony Stark]

So you understand that Spider-man 1 which had the best multiplier in these Comicbook genre movies and it had a -27% drop on Sunday? Nothing gets an 11% drop on Sunday at this time of year. It was strictly statistical noise from the fight, making the Monday drop higher, which was still within range of this genre.

 

[Tony Stark]

How many films with 2.6x multipler or higher in May drop 75% on the first Monday?

How many films have an -11% drop on Sunday at this time of year?

 

[JB33]

So apparently Monday's number was 12.6 million which is nearly a 75% drop. Not very good. Seems that 500 million is now a pipe dream.

What??

I was just coming to this thread to speculate about if AOU can set a record, or at least approach it, for Monday gross. Spider-Man 2 currently holds the record with $27.6 mill. Maybe I'm really overrating this movie's potential at the box office because I figured for sure we'd be looking at a 20+ mill Monday gross at the very least.

Wow...

 

[Tony Stark]

What??

I was just coming to this thread to speculate about if AOU can set a record, or at least approach it, for Monday gross. Spider-Man 2 currently holds the record with $27.6 mill. Maybe I'm really overrating this movie's potential at the box office because I figured for sure we'd be looking at a 20+ mill Monday gross at the very least.

Wow...

HUH?

Seriously are people trolling here or is this serious talk? I don't even know how to respond to some of this stuff. Avengers didn't have a 20M monday gross, what on earth made you think this film based on any real evidence that it was going to have a 20M + monday?

 

[JB33]

Just looking at the numbers now and realizing that there is a bit of a trend here. There isn't a film from this decade in the top 6 Monday grosses. The top 6 are as follows:

1. Spider-Man 2 (2004) - $27.6 million
2. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (2008) - $26.8 million
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007) - $25 million
4. The Dark Knight (2008) - $24.5 million
5. Shrek 2 (2004) - $23.4 million
6. X-Men: Last Stand - (2006) - $20.1 million

The best movie from this decade is X-Men: Days of Future past from last year, which sits at #7 on the list with $19.7 million. I guess more and more people these days either cram in to see the blockbusters during its opening weekend or it's just not important enough and people wait. Whatever the case, even the biggest movies aren't attracting people to go to the theatre on a Monday night these days.

It's a shame because I remember when I was younger that you went to see the big movies no matter what the day. I remember my dad and a buddy of his pulling me out of school in the middle of the day to go see Star Wars Episode I.

 

[JB33]

HUH?

Seriously are people trolling here or is this serious talk? I don't even know how to respond to some of this stuff. Avengers didn't have a 20M monday gross, what on earth made you think this film based on any real evidence that it was going to have a 20M + monday?

I'm not trolling at all. I already said as much in post: I really did figure this movie would light up the Monday box office. I hadn't looked at the all time Monday grosses until just now.

Easy man.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

How many films have an -11% drop on Sunday at this time of year?

I asked you question. You said this kind of drop is normal. Do you have any actual proof?

Also, the drop was weird for reason. Namely Sat. was low because of the sporting events. This was made up for on Sunday.

 

[warriorking]

Wow...AOU has made 203 Million since Thursday and it a bomb?...
By the time the competition begins it will be hovering just under 400 Million domestically...
Factor in the WW numbers and we are over a Billion .. Yeah a real flop....
Marvel just announced its cancelling all upcoming projects due to severe financial losses...

 

[Tony Stark]

I asked you question. You said this kind of drop is normal. Do you have any actual proof?

Also, the drop was weird for reason. Namely Sat. was low because of the sporting events. This was made up for on Sunday.

I listed 3 films and you ignored them but just so were clear:

Going back 10 years first monday in may:

Kingdom of Heaven: 67.4
MI3 72%
SM3: 74.4%
IM1: 73.8%
XMO:W 74.4%
IM2: 69.9%
Thor: 68%
A1: 66.9%
IM3: 73.8%
TASM2: 77.8%

All of those films averaged a 25-30% drop on Sunday. Avengers 1 being the standout with -18%.

Throw in CA:TWS and a few other school year release type films and AoU is slightly below the mean with a statistical noise due to the fight inflating the Sunday returns.

IOW, this number shouldn't bother anyone YET. The Thursday number will be much more important, because that will dictate the weekend.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I listed 3 films and you ignored them but just so were clear:

Going back 10 years first monday in may:

Kingdom of Heaven: 67.4
MI3 72%
SM3: 74.4%
IM1: 73.8%
XMO:W 74.4%
IM2: 69.9%
Thor: 68%
A1: 66.9%
IM3: 73.8%
TASM2: 77.8%

All of those films averaged a 25-30% drop on Sunday. Avengers 1 being the standout with -18%.

Throw in CA:TWS and a few other school year release type films and AoU is slightly below the mean with a statistical noise due to the fight inflating the Sunday returns.

IOW, this number shouldn't bother anyone YET. The Thursday number will be much more important, because that will dictate the weekend.

The Sunday numbers being inflated, doesn't change the actual cash return on Monday. Which is low. The percentage drop is still high, as your own numbers tell you. Also notice that 4 of the 5 highest drops are all for films not exactly well received by critics and general audiences alike?

 

[Iceman]

Well, was hoping for a little more from the Monday.

 

[Tony Stark]

The best Monday drops for non-holiday May in the last 10 years or so have been Star Trek, and Avengers. Star Trek had probably the best non holiday weekend performance multiplier wise considering it opened over Mother's day which tends to hurt movies.

corrections to the above, Thor and IM2 were not the first Mondays in May

2010 Nightmare on Elm Street -68.4%
2011 Fast Five - 71.5%

 

[Tony Stark]

The Sunday numbers being inflated, doesn't change the actual cash return on Monday. Which is low. The percentage drop is still high, as your own numbers tell you. Also notice that 4 of the 5 highest drops are all for films not exactly well received by critics and general audiences alike?

Wrong it does. Inflated numbers on Sunday based on a lower Saturday by default means a bigger drop Monday. It's very simple.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Wrong it does. Inflated numbers on Sunday based on a lower Saturday by default means a bigger drop Monday. It's very simple.

I am not so sure the Sunday number was inflated. It looks inflated because it dropped 11% from Saturday, but the Saturday number was definitely deflated. The $50m Sunday actually sounds about right when you go back and look at the Friday number.

Probably would have made in the upper 60's on Saturday and then dropped in the 20-30% range on Sunday to end up at $50m. The question to me is can it get that lost Saturday money back during the box office run or will those people wait for home video. It is too early to say right now for sure.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I am not so sure the Sunday number was inflated. It looks inflated because it dropped 11% from Saturday, but the Saturday number was definitely deflated. The $50m Sunday actually sounds about right when you go back and look at the Friday number.

Probably would have made in the upper 60's on Saturday and then dropped in the 20-30% range on Sunday to end up at $50m. The question to me is can it get that lost Saturday money back during the box office run or will those people wait for home video. It is too early to say right now for sure.

Exactly.

 

[Tony Stark]

I am not so sure the Sunday number was inflated. It looks inflated because it dropped 11% from Saturday, but the Saturday number was definitely deflated. The $50m Sunday actually sounds about right when you go back and look at the Friday number.

Probably would have made in the upper 60's on Saturday and then dropped in the 20-30% range on Sunday to end up at $50m. The question to me is can it get that lost Saturday money back during the box office run or will those people wait for home video. It is too early to say right now for sure.

That's one theory, the other is that the people who didn't show up Saturday, showed up Sunday. this is what Disney said and their projections were closer to the actuals than the official estimates.

There's an 8% difference in the projected estimates for Sunday, and what the actuals came in at. the only explanation is that the people who missed because of the sporting events on Saturday, showed up on Sunday. Even if the 19% projected Sunday drop had happen, that's an excellent hold for Sunday, -11% is unheard of, for this time of year. The norm would be 25-30%.

 

[JKKS085]

Just looking at the numbers now and realizing that there is a bit of a trend here. There isn't a film from this decade in the top 6 Monday grosses. The top 6 are as follows:

1. Spider-Man 2 (2004) - $27.6 million
2. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (2008) - $26.8 million
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007) - $25 million
4. The Dark Knight (2008) - $24.5 million
5. Shrek 2 (2004) - $23.4 million
6. X-Men: Last Stand - (2006) - $20.1 million

The best movie from this decade is X-Men: Days of Future past from last year, which sits at #7 on the list with $19.7 million. I guess more and more people these days either cram in to see the blockbusters during its opening weekend or it's just not important enough and people wait. Whatever the case, even the biggest movies aren't attracting people to go to the theatre on a Monday night these days.

It's a shame because I remember when I was younger that you went to see the big movies no matter what the day. I remember my dad and a buddy of his pulling me out of school in the middle of the day to go see Star Wars Episode I.

Those are either holidays (Memorial Day) or summer Mondays when kids are out of school. The trend is actually very simple, we didn't have a single record breaker released in July ever since The Dark Knight or during Memorial Day week end ever since ... I can't (or don't want to) remember. Had Marvel decided to open AOU during Memorial Day week end you would have witnessed a record breking monday.

The only trend is that studios feel now much more confident to open tentpole films out of the traditionnal summer spots.

 

[redfirebird2008]

That's one theory, the other is that the people who didn't show up Saturday, showed up Sunday. this is what Disney said and their projections were closer to the actuals than the official estimates.

There's an 8% difference in the projected estimates for Sunday, and what the actuals came in at. the only explanation is that the people who missed because of the sporting events on Saturday, showed up on Sunday. Even if the 19% projected Sunday drop had happen, that's an excellent hold for Sunday, -11% is unheard of, for this time of year. The norm would be 25-30%.

Yes it is unheard of, but the Sunday number itself is very much in line with what it would have made if Saturday didn't crash and burn the way it did. We need more time to say for sure. If it keeps tracking with IM3's daily drops then I would say the $50m Sunday just put the movie back on track for what it was going to do. It might never get the $10m back from Saturday though.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The first made 18.9mil Monday, this film did 13.2mil, does anybody still believe that this is going to somehow make up the difference and do 100mil next weekend? It's heading for an Iron Man 3 style drop.

 

[Tony Stark]

The first made 18.9mil Monday, this film did 13.2mil, does anybody still believe that this is going to somehow make up the difference and do 100mil next weekend? It's heading for an Iron Man 3 style drop.

IM3 was -58% which is about standard for this genre, so it won't surprise me. Avengers was a once in a life time event film, there's a clear drop off from the first film, probably due to a number of factors.

But in answer to your question, it was never going to do a 100M second weekend. I said 85M, I'm going to stick to that for now, but it could be closer to 80M.

 

[Tony Stark]

With IM3's multiplier it would be $448. I think it will be higher than that. But the big question is how it holds against MM, and if it can do decent buisness over memorial day.

It's clearly not a 3x multiplier like A1, so split the difference between IM3 and A1, 2.6'ish would be$496?

I'll just say you're probably looking somewhere from $480-520M.

 

[Iceman]

After this it's going to be difficult to predict Infinity War. I wonder how close Civil War can get to AoU. Hopefully at least ahead of IM3.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

With IM3's multiplier it would be $448. I think it will be higher than that. But the big question is how it holds against MM, and if it can do decent buisness over memorial day.

It's clearly not a 3x multiplier like A1, so split the difference between IM3 and A1, 2.6'ish would be$496?

I'll just say you're probably looking somewhere from $480-520M.

I think around 2.6 sounds reasonable.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I'm thinking mid to high 400 million for this film.

The question is will any of the future Avengers sequels ever be able to top the 620 million domestic of A1? or did the series hit peak saturation in North America already?

I'm talking mainly IW part 2.

 

[Docker2.0]

The first made 18.9mil Monday, this film did 13.2mil, does anybody still believe that this is going to somehow make up the difference and do 100mil next weekend? It's heading for an Iron Man 3 style drop.

No quit here baby! I still believe it will.