Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Mysteryman]

I am surprised that even AOU was expected to do over 200 million dollars.
Before A1, 200 million dollars in one weekend was considered impossible to acheive.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

No quit here baby! I still believe it will.

I like your enthusiasm but no.

 

[Iceman]

I'm thinking mid to high 400 million for this film.

The question is will any of the future Avengers sequels ever be able to top the 620 million domestic of A1? or did the series hit peak saturation in North America already?

I'm talking mainly IW part 2.

I think the max for US is a bit lower temporarily now that people have realised that 3D is a waste 90% of the time. I stopped too but only recently.

 

[See Cap Run]

Thank goodness for small favors, the Box Office Mojo Monday actual is slightly higher with $13.2 million instead of $12 million which is about a 73% drop instead of 75%.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I am surprised that even AOU was expected to do over 200 million dollars.
Before A1, 200 million dollars in one weekend was considered impossible to acheive.

That's what happens when the first time out for a franchise, it sets a new record and then people expect that level or better the next time out. I view it as like someone who has a great game and then is expected to always be able to hit that same high but never does.

 

[kedrell]

So you understand that Spider-man 1 which had the best multiplier in these Comicbook genre movies and it had a -27% drop on Sunday? Nothing gets an 11% drop on Sunday at this time of year. It was strictly statistical noise from the fight, making the Monday drop higher, which was still within range of this genre.

It used to be the gold standard for legs in CBM's but last year GotG beat it. GotG now has the best legs of any big budget, blockbuster CBM in this century(of course the old Superman & Batman movies that existed in a different era have entirely better legs but then, well...they are from a different box office era where movies in general weren't as front-loaded).

 

[kedrell]

Been looking at the Monday #'s and from here I'm gonna guess the opening week ends up in the $235-$240m range. TA1 did $270m so that's not going anywhere. TDK is #2 in opening weeks with $238m so it looks like it's gonna be a close match between AoU and TDK for the #2 spot. If it follows IM3 it'll end the week with around $236.5m. Hopefully it does a bit better.

 

[Tony Stark]

It used to be the gold standard for legs in CBM's but last year GotG beat it. GotG now has the best legs of any big budget, blockbuster CBM in this century(of course the old Superman & Batman movies that existed in a different era have entirely better legs but then, well...they are from a different box office era where movies in general weren't as front-loaded).

overall multiplier yes, but SM1 still holds the record in the genre for the lowest 2nd weekend drop at only -34%. We will never see numbers like that again. The best that's been produced since has been -47.2% with Thor.

 

[kedrell]

Oh, that's what you meant. Ok then, you're right on that. SM1 being nearly a decade and a half ago is getting to the point where it could be considered another era as well. Ditto the X-Men1.

 

[Lord]

So, with how it's doing so far, how much are most sources predicting for it to make worldwide? Does it seem like it's gonna beat the first film? Or in least Furious 7?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I like your enthusiasm but no.

 

[See Cap Run]

I would say next weekend will be between $80 million at the lowest and $95 million at the most with the most likely range between $82 and $84 million (56-57% drop).

 

[Tony Stark]

I would say next weekend will be between $80 million at the lowest and $95 million at the most with the most likely range between $82 and $84 million (56-57% drop).

Pretty much this ^

Which puts it as the no 2 second weekend all time. Nothing really to complain about.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It has no chance of making 95 million. 85 at best.

 

[Iceman]

So, with how it's doing so far, how much are most sources predicting for it to make worldwide? Does it seem like it's gonna beat the first film? Or in least Furious 7?

Overseas it's going well, not far off where the first film was at this point but with China still left in the tank (last time China had just opened).

 

[See Cap Run]

It has no chance of making 95 million. 85 at best.

Yep, $85 million would be a very solid hold and as Tony Stark pointed out, it's definitely going to have the 2nd highest opening weekend ever which would give the MCU yet another record: first film franchise to have 2 films holding the #1 and 2 spots for highest ever first and 2nd weekends not to mention being the only franchise with 3 films to gross over $1 billion worldwide. :!)

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yep, $85 million would be a very solid hold and as Tony Stark pointed out, it's definitely going to have the 2nd highest opening weekend ever which would give the MCU yet another record: first film franchise to have 2 films holding the #1 and 2 spots for highest ever first and 2nd weekends not to mention being the only franchise with 3 films to gross over $1 billion worldwide. :!)

This sounds like a SportsCenter record.

 

[hafizbat]

I'm thinking mid to high 400 million for this film.

The question is will any of the future Avengers sequels ever be able to top the 620 million domestic of A1? or did the series hit peak saturation in North America already?

I'm talking mainly IW part 2.

This is a great question. I'd like to see what the box office gurus in here think.

 

[See Cap Run]

This sounds like a SportsCenter record.

That is funny! After you pointed that out, I read it with a sports narrator voice in my mind and you're absolutely right!

 

[Wildcard]

Give it a chance. Look how long the first film was in theaters. Age Of Ultron could have bigger and longer weeks, you never know

This is what I think the case will be. It's far too early for anyone to be saying it's the end game for AoU already.

Guess we're just glossing over that #2 opening of all time thing even despite the major sporting events, huh?

 

[Tony Stark]

I think the max for US is a bit lower temporarily now that people have realised that 3D is a waste 90% of the time. I stopped too but only recently.

No doubt the lack of 3D sales hurt this compared to the first film. I think overall for the weekend it was 5% less, but on the previews it was 16% less, and the preview/midnight showings are when people are much more likely to see it in that format. IMAX was up but not enough screens to really account for the discrepancy.

Still considering the lack of 3D sales, the sporting events, and a general audience decline, the fact that it came up with 191M is still impressive. It's just that AoU seems to have followed the pattern of Empire Strikes Back, and Spider-man 2 in that they were both sequels that failed to surpass the record setting first films.

 

[Iceman]

No doubt the lack of 3D sales hurt this compared to the first film. I think overall for the weekend it was 5% less, but on the previews it was 16% less, and the preview/midnight showings are when people are much more likely to see it in that format. IMAX was up but not enough screens to really account for the discrepancy.

Still considering the lack of 3D sales, the sporting events, and a general audience decline, the fact that it came up with 191M is still impressive. It's just that AoU seems to have followed the pattern of Empire Strikes Back, and Spider-man 2 in that they were both sequels that failed to surpass the record setting first films.

Yeah I guess there was more one-off phenomenon about the first film than I gave it credit for and all of those other factors make sense in hindsight but I had expected them to have less impact. Maybe it work as more like a common franchise from AoU onwards now that the freak is out of the way.

I'll also be very interested to see how Avatar 2 does and also how much it does in 3D and IMAX. It's probably the only film I would bother seeing in 3D, even if the standard is no better (but also no worse) than the first film.

 

[warriorking]

Looks like it pulled in another 13Million on Tuesday....
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

 

[kedrell]

If this behaves more like IM3 for the next 2 days then it'll definitely come up a couple million $ short of the $238.6m opening week of TDK which is the #2 all time spot. If however it behaves more like SM3 then it'd be within $200-400k of that mark and so is still legitimately in contention for the #2 spot of opening weeks of all time. At this point I'd say the odds aren't in AoU's favor but I can by no means say it isn't a possibility yet. If the Wed number drops below $10.8-10.9m though then TDK will win the OW match up and AoU will have to settle for the #3 spot for sure.

 

[rashad]

Looks like it pulled in another 13Million on Tuesday....
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Stayed flat with Discount Tuesday. It will probably drop to $10 million tomorrow.