Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[rashad]

I agree with what you said about Avatar too.

 

[8ulk]

It's going to be close but I'd say it still comes up short by maybe $20m or so. But when things get that close who can really say. But there are no locks here yet, either way.



It will still more than likely beat the first film WW. China and Japan will see to that.



No chance in hell. Unlikely to get even within a billion $ of Avatar.



Possible but my money's still firmly on AoU as the likely winner DOM and WW of 2015. I'd say SW7 fights it out with F7 WW for the #2 spot and fights it out with THG4/MJ2 for the #2 spot DOM.



Nobody saw it being that big. Plenty thought it had a shot at the billion $ club but not going $400-500m beyond that. That's a huge surprise.

Exactly what you said. Spot on on every single point. Its a pretty educated guess.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think Star Wars 7 wins the domestic crown, AOU wins the worldwide crown and Furious 7 wins overseas.

People are under-predicting Star Wars 7.

The Phantom Menace made over 730 million when adjusted for inflation. I can see The Force Awakens making at least 600 m.

 

[rashad]

Thursday numbers

$8,613,154
-8.5%

 

[warriorking]

Should do nicely this weekend...And I read earlier in another article it broke over 500 Million over seas...And it has yet to open in China or Japan..

 

[JB33]

Can any box office experts/gurus comment on what kind of an indicator Thursday's box office haul is for this coming weekend? I don't want to sound like I'm hating or whatever, I just genuinely feel like the numbers are pretty low. It sits really low on the list of all time Thursday grosses among films that had been out for 7 days or more (aka excluding films that were released on that Thursday or the day before).

I suppose it doesn't matter, the predictions I've seen for this coming weekend point to the 2nd highest second weekend of all time. I guess people just aren't seeing it on weekdays as much as for other films.

 

[Tony Stark]

It's sounding like a 25M Friday, and possibly $85-90M weekend. Those numbers are from Rth, I haven't seen alot of other data, but if that holds true, this is an excellent weekend hold.

 

[Wildcard]

I think Star Wars 7 wins the domestic crown, AOU wins the worldwide crown and Furious 7 wins overseas.

People are under-predicting Star Wars 7.

The Phantom Menace made over 730 million when adjusted for inflation. I can see The Force Awakens making at least 600 m.

Adjusted inflation doesn't really mean anything, tbh.

And yes, yes, if $85-$90 million is where AoU falls between this weekend, that's fantastic. Should end up anywhere from $800-$875...maybe even $900 WW by the end of the weekend.

 

[8ulk]

I think Star Wars 7 wins the domestic crown, AOU wins the worldwide crown and Furious 7 wins overseas.

People are under-predicting Star Wars 7.

The Phantom Menace made over 730 million when adjusted for inflation. I can see The Force Awakens making at least 600 m.

AoU will cetainly take the WW crown thats a given.

Domestic crown will go to AoU as well i think even with 475 mil.

Overseas crown is for AoU too since Furious 7 will stop at 1,1-1,15 bil and AoU is pretty much guaranteed to break that unless China fails for some reason. I dont see that happening.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Deadline reporting $21.9m Friday, $77m weekend.

http://deadline.com/2015/05/hot-pursuit-box-office-reese-witherspoon-sofia-vergara-1201422937/

 

[metaphysician]

Something to consider: Avatar benefited from being at the peak of 3D interest. Its sequel may have inflation and the growing international market, but its also going to have considerably less 3D sales. I *seriously* doubt Avatar 2 is going to exceed the first in box office.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I knew that early 25+mil Friday number was ********, that's why I didn't even comment on it last night.

I still think it can hit 80 if it hits 22 million Friday.

 

[Donnie Darko]

Something to consider: Avatar benefited from being at the peak of 3D interest. Its sequel may have inflation and the growing international market, but its also going to have considerably less 3D sales. I *seriously* doubt Avatar 2 is going to exceed the first in box office.

I think Avatar CAUSED the peak of 3D interest, and other movies benefited from it. I highly doubt the sequel will come close to touching the original, since so many people have soured on Avatar over the years.

 

[Raiden]

Deadline reporting $21.9m Friday, $77m weekend.

http://deadline.com/2015/05/hot-pursuit-box-office-reese-witherspoon-sofia-vergara-1201422937/

I think it can do over 80 mil. I seriously doubt that Witherspoon/Vargara movie will poise any kind of challenge to AOU.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It did an estimated 21.3million. I could definitely see it missing 80million with that number. We are still talking about huge numbers here of course.

 

[Iceman]

All these numbers show how awesome the first film's numbers were. Wonder what film will finally beat Avengers. Also even TDK numbers are looking good now that we are getting more context on what it takes to get into the really big numbers above the high 400s.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Over 400 million has always been a great number at the North American box office. Over 300million Isn't easy to get either. The box office isn't exactly growing here in the states.

Forget The Dark Knight Rises, I want some new appreciation for Spider-Man 2 managing to hold on to 92-93% of it's predecessor's record breaking box office numbers in North America. I want a reevaluation about how great of a feat that was. Age of Ultron isn't going to hold on to that much of it's audience and neither did The Dark Knight Rises.

To be honest The Dark Knight Rises doesn't even count because it is a 3rd film and I'm only really talking about 1st sequels.

 

[DarkKnight88]

If we've learned time and time again… never underestimate the power of James Cameron.

 

[Tony Stark]

I should know better than to post Friday night numbers. ERC is still reporting $24M, BOM at $21M but usually BOM is pretty accurate, so I don't know maybe 78-82M possible?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I crunched the numbers, I don't see it doing 80 million anymore. And under 500 million is happening as well. I called somebody crazy for predicting under 500mil, looks like I was wrong.

 

[warcam]

That's still a nearly 60% drop from last weekend....more than the 1st one dropped. And I think a lot of people, incl. myself, thought this weekend would be closer to $100 million given a lot of people may have skipped it last weekend because of the Kentucky Derby and/or the Mayweather fight.

 

[rashad]

I should know better than to post Friday night numbers. ERC is still reporting $24M, BOM at $21M but usually BOM is pretty accurate, so I don't know maybe 78-82M possible?

BOM gets the official studio estimates. So it's $21M.

 

[warcam]

I was definitely on the side of upper $500 million as well. It'll be lucky to crack that at this point. Oh well. Que sera sera.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

ERC is full of ****, everyone else is saying 21.3million.

That whole "all of the sports killed it and it would make up for it this weekend" stuff never made sense. Yes it was hurt on Saturday but it made up for that with a tiny 11% Saturday to Sunday drop. It's not making up for anything because it has nothing to make up. That was an excuse for last weekend, nothing more.

The novelty has worn off, the reviews weren't as good and the word of mouth isn't as good. Those are the explanation for these numbers.

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

What Box office mojo said regarding the previous weekend box office, and i agree with them

Finally, the movie's Saturday number likely suffered due to a handful of sporting events that drew a lot of attention. The Kentucky Derby and Clippers v. Spurs Game 7 were widely-viewed events, though neither seemed to capture the zeitgeist in the way that the Manny Pacquiao vs Floyd Mayweather fight did. These probably weren't devastating—Avengers did still have the third-biggest Saturday ever—but they could definitely have shaved a few percentage points off of the weekend. When dealing with numbers this big, that could translate in to $5 to $10 million.

The novelty has worn off, the reviews weren't as good and the word of mouth isn't as good. Those are the explanation for these numbers.

You're talking as if the movie is kind of a flop compared to the original.

I thought the movie is stil outpacing the original in terms of overseas? and i could be mistaken but this second week it has a chance to be the second best second weekend ever?

Lotsa movie studio execs would sell their soul to Cthulu for those numbers ( and those reviews as well)