Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Raiden]

ERC is full of ****, everyone else is saying 21.3million.

That whole "all of the sports killed it and it would make up for it this weekend" stuff never made sense. Yes it was hurt on Saturday but it made up for that with a tiny 11% Saturday to Sunday drop. It's not making up for anything because it has nothing to make up. That was an excuse for last weekend, nothing more.

The novelty has worn off, the reviews weren't as good and the word of mouth isn't as good. Those are the explanation for these numbers.

Domestically, AOU may not make as much as the first Avengers movie did, but OS it will definitely make more. And in the end, I think AOU will probably surpass Avengers' WW gross due to the expanded international markets.

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

Domestically, AOU may not make as much as the first Avengers movie did, but OS it will definitely make more. And in the end, I think AOU will probably surpass Avengers' WW gross due to the expanded international markets.

Exactly

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Domestically, AOU may not make as much as the first Avengers movie did, but OS it will definitely make more. And in the end, I think AOU will probably surpass Avengers' WW gross due to the expanded international markets.

I already know that, that doesn't mean that I can't talk about the North American numbers.

 

[hafizbat]

ERC is full of ****, everyone else is saying 21.3million.

That whole "all of the sports killed it and it would make up for it this weekend" stuff never made sense. Yes it was hurt on Saturday but it made up for that with a tiny 11% Saturday to Sunday drop. It's not making up for anything because it has nothing to make up. That was an excuse for last weekend, nothing more.

The novelty has worn off, the reviews weren't as good and the word of mouth isn't as good. Those are the explanation for these numbers.

I don't know if this is necessarily true. Many sequels make more even with much, much worse reviews and word of mouth, and AoU's reception wasn't nearly as negative as you make it sound.

If The Avengers had a great reception, AoU had a good one.

There was a WORLD of a difference in quality from Spider-Man 2 to Spider-Man 3 yet the latter made much, much more. The difference in quality is not even close to the same between TA/AoU.

Which leads me to believe that sports and the fall of 3D are significant factors.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The first film made 623 million dollars, the sequel was never going to touch that number or surpass it. Even my bad 550-580million prediction acknowledged that the film was going to drop. That's just the way it is for record breaking films.

I never said the word of mouth was bad I said it wasn't as good as the first film's and it isn't, that's a fact. You don't have to like it but it is true. If the fight affected the movie so much then why didn't more people see the film during the week and weekend?

The novelty factor is real, it is a real factor. Lack of a bigger 3D boost, which is a factor as well, doesn't explain how far behind the numbers are looking to be.

 

[armyofrobots]

AoU will cetainly take the WW crown thats a given.

Domestic crown will go to AoU as well i think even with 475 mil.

Overseas crown is for AoU too since Furious 7 will stop at 1,1-1,15 bil and AoU is pretty much guaranteed to break that unless China fails for some reason. I dont see that happening.

yeah, no. Star Wars will be king of 2015.

 

[rashad]

Maybe.

 

[JKKS085]

I think we should just stop seeing the MCU and analyzing, projecting BO numbers as this a regular franchise. AOU is not a sequel to The Avengers, IM3, TDW, CATWS and GotG were, which explains their respective performance at the box office and the increase compared to previews entries in the franchise. I SEE SPIDEY hits the right spot by saying that the novelty has worn off and this is in part due to IM3, TDW, CATWS and GotG. Age of Ultron is the eleventh film in a franchise that is already 7 years old. It's not just the second film in the Avengers franchise and it's clearly not performing as such.

I don't know if their is a feeling of over-saturation with audiences, maybe there's some sort of glass ceiling for the franchise domestically right were the first film landed but clearly it shows that when you got so many hits on your hands, you just can't keep growing, regardless of quality, or audiences tastes.

One thing I'm hoping for right now is that Marvel Studios will do the right thing and retire the big three after Civil War and Ragnarok so they can capitalize on their return in Infinity War Part II. As much as I love the characters and thoroughly enjoyed Age Of Ultron, they need to make way for new exciting heroes, to take the proper time to develop them and build the anticipation around the return of their most iconic characters so this doesn't become another Sony's Spider-Man situation (which the MCU is pretty far from just to be clear).

 

[Flint Marko]

Again, the first Avengers was lightning in a bottle. Nothing was ever going to top that. I said that for months before the release, my prediction was around $500 domestic.
However, people are looking past the fact that this was pretty warmly received overall. Critics enjoyed it, audiences are clearly enjoying it. The word of mouth is, at worst, "wasn't as good as the first". That ain't bad folks, a good deal of other franchises wish they had as "tepid" a reception as this did. The overreaction from so many of you is interesting.

 

[warcam]

yeah, no. Star Wars will be king of 2015.

C'mon. Everyone knows 'Scouts vs. Zombies' and 'Alvin & The Chipmunks: Road Chip' will be duking it out for the crown. t:

 

[paulogonza]

i dont know why in USA the boxoffice of AOU is down so fast, in many other countries around the world is the opposite, and here in Brazil its is far ahead of TA even with the exchanges rates, im admissions tickets is close the double of TA in the same time.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Not surprised.

 

[souvlaki]

Domestically, AOU may not make as much as the first Avengers movie did, but OS it will definitely make more. And in the end, I think AOU will probably surpass Avengers' WW gross due to the expanded international markets.

The overseas market has expanded a lot in the last three years. There was never really a question of AOU outperforming the first on that end. It's doing okay domestically (relative to expectations, I am not saying $450 million is "okay" generally speaking) but I don't think anyone predicted there would be a very real possibility of it finishing third domestically when everything is said and done by years end.

 

[ares834]

I was definitely on the side of upper $500 million as well. It'll be lucky to crack that at this point. Oh well. Que sera sera.

"Lucky"? There is virtually no chance of that happening now, looking like it will fall around $450 mill. A great number no doubt, but disapointing in comparison to the first.

 

[souvlaki]

Outside of Sunday every final number has been under expectations. $450-460 is starting to look like the ceiling at this point.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Not surprised.

You definitely called it.

450-470mil it is.

 

[dalonewolf]

I been saying 400-450 for years now
But the foreign market should make up for the domestic drop

 

[Zant]

Thats a pretty big drop from the first film. Even TDKR and Spiderman 2 did not drop that much from their previous films. With a budget of 280 million its up to the overseas markets to save the day again. Can't wait to hear those epic Chinese box office numbers.

 

[See Cap Run]

Thats a pretty big drop from the first film. Even TDKR and Spiderman 2 did not drop that much from their previous films. With a budget of 280 million its up to the overseas markets to save the day again. Can't wait to hear those epic Chinese box office numbers.

I don't think the day needs saving: with a budget of $250 million, it broke even at $500 million worldwide and after that is profit.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I don't know if this is necessarily true. Many sequels make more even with much, much worse reviews and word of mouth, and AoU's reception wasn't nearly as negative as you make it sound.

If The Avengers had a great reception, AoU had a good one.

There was a WORLD of a difference in quality from Spider-Man 2 to Spider-Man 3 yet the latter made much, much more. The difference in quality is not even close to the same between TA/AoU.

Which leads me to believe that sports and the fall of 3D are significant factors.

I think "middle chapter" is part of it, also. I think IW will make more. Honestly, I am meh to the domestic drop. I'm waiting for the WW numbers. At the end of the day, the phase 3 films are likely to happen, as is a sequel to Avengers. The domestic decline though disappointing to some won't hurt the series overall. Few movies will make as much as this will at the BO. So, go Avengers!

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I don't think the day needs saving: with a budget of $250 million, it broke even at $500 million worldwide and after that is profit.

Don't forget, marketing brings the cost to 300-350 m.

But yeah, Disney is going to make s killing, especially after DVDs, tv rights and merchandising.

 

[hafizbat]

Here's something I've been wondering and you guys are much more knowledgable than me about BO stuff.

Can ANY future MCU movie gross as much as TA domestically? AoU would obviously have been the prime candidate, but it's not even going to come close. Is it even possible for the Infinity War movies to crack the $600m mark?

Let's just say theoretically that Infinity War is as critically acclaimed as The Avengers.

 

[hafizbat]

The first film made 623 million dollars, the sequel was never going to touch that number or surpass it. Even my bad 550-580million prediction acknowledged that the film was going to drop. That's just the way it is for record breaking films.

I never said the word of mouth was bad I said it wasn't as good as the first film's and it isn't, that's a fact. You don't have to like it but it is true. If the fight affected the movie so much then why didn't more people see the film during the week and weekend?

The novelty factor is real, it is a real factor. Lack of a bigger 3D boost, which is a factor as well, doesn't explain how far behind the numbers are looking to be.

Again, the first Avengers was lightning in a bottle. Nothing was ever going to top that. I said that for months before the release, my prediction was around $500 domestic.
However, people are looking past the fact that this was pretty warmly received overall. Critics enjoyed it, audiences are clearly enjoying it. The word of mouth is, at worst, "wasn't as good as the first". That ain't bad folks, a good deal of other franchises wish they had as "tepid" a reception as this did. The overreaction from so many of you is interesting.

Yeah, I mean I always knew TA was an exceptional hit at the BO, but now looking at the numbers I realize just how extraordinary that run was. Lightning in a bottle indeed.

 

[Lord]

The only chance at beating The Avengers's lightning in a bottle result would be to bring in another smart marketing campaign, i felt like Age of Ultron's wasn't very good and could have hyped this film more than it did for the general public.

 

[See Cap Run]

Don't forget, marketing brings the cost to 300-350 m.

But yeah, Disney is going to make s killing, especially after DVDs, tv rights and merchandising.

That's very true, but I was under the impression that the 2x production budget break even point already takes into account factors such as marketing budget, etc.