The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Serpico Jones]

I didn't know a damn thing about Tolkien when I first sat down to watch Fellowship of the Ring. It was like having a religious experience in the theater, I couldn't believe what I was watching and how amazing it all was. The characters and world building was genius.

 

[PacificBoy]

All these franchises are just keeping the seat warm for the Stephen King cinematic universe to arise.

 

[Tony Stark]

Avengers still was a break out smash success that was a cultural phenomenon and grounder breaking franchise.

It's still not easy to make over 600 m DOM or 1.5 billion WW. And every studio now wants a Cinematic Universe.

It's just that Star Wars transcends most entertainment.

Pretty much this in a nutshell. Most of these films, Titanic, Avatar, The Dark Knight, Avengers, etc. they had a huge impact and were cultural phenomenon.

Both franchises are huge, and we'll get a chance with Civil War to see how this continues to translate, but yeah Star Wars is still in a league of it's own.

Of all the films only Attack of the Clones wasn't the biggest film of the year. In fact it came in third behind Spider-man and The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers.

However I always felt that Attack of the Clones was IMO the worst entry in the franchise. It was the only film in the series that Roger Ebert gave a thumbs down to. There was something off about it, and I still can't put my finger on it 13 years later.

But the point is, every other Star Wars film (and soon to be this one) was the biggest film of the year that calendar year. That's an unprecedented success rate!

The reason that this one is far more successful than the prequels is that the fans of the series finally got something they've been wanting. Although I still feel it's not as good as the original three, the fact that some I've seen rank it above some of those films shows how far this has come. I don't think I even heard the most ardent fanboy claim that any of the prequels were as good as the original trilogy, let alone better.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Pretty much this in a nutshell. Most of these films, Titanic, Avatar, The Dark Knight, Avengers, etc. they had a huge impact and were cultural phenomenon.

Both franchises are huge, and we'll get a chance with Civil War to see how this continues to translate, but yeah Star Wars is still in a league of it's own.

Of all the films only Attack of the Clones wasn't the biggest film of the year. In fact it came in third behind Spider-man and The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers.

However I always felt that Attack of the Clones was IMO the worst entry in the franchise. It was the only film in the series that Roger Ebert gave a thumbs down to. There was something off about it, and I still can't put my finger on it 13 years later.

But the point is, every other Star Wars film (and soon to be this one) was the biggest film of the year that calendar year. That's an unprecedented success rate!

The reason that this one is far more successful than the prequels is that the fans of the series finally got something they've been wanting. Although I still feel it's not as good as the original three, the fact that some I've seen rank it above some of those films shows how far this has come. I don't think I even heard the most ardent fanboy claim that any of the prequels were as good as the original trilogy, let alone better.

To be fair isn't it the Star Wars fan-boys who hate on the prequels the most? Some go out of their way to pretend they don't exist.

I have a feeling for a good number of the general audience watching TFA especially in the younger generation, they probably have more connections to the prequels than the OT.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

To be fair isn't it the Star Wars fan-boys who hate on the prequels the most? Some go out of their way to pretend they don't exist.

I have a feeling for a good number of the general audience watching TFA especially in the younger generation, they probably have more connections to the prequels than the OT.

No. Star Wars fandom is split. You have many who claim the prequels are not only great, but better then the "boring" OT. Just go to TFN and read some of the prequel talk.

This is the reason why many hardcore prequel fans pre-empetively attacked TFA. They did not want it to be a huge success, because it would put the reaction to the prequels in a far more obvious light. They went as far as to start calling anything not written by Lucas fan fiction.

 

[Tony Stark]

To be fair isn't it the Star Wars fan-boys who hate on the prequels the most? Some go out of their way to pretend they don't exist.

I have a feeling for a good number of the general audience watching TFA especially in the younger generation, they probably have more connections to the prequels than the OT.

Good point.

 

[titansupes]

No. Star Wars fandom is split. You have many who claim the prequels are not only great, but better then the "boring" OT. Just go to TFN and read some of the prequel talk.

This is the reason why many hardcore prequel fans pre-empetively attacked TFA. They did not want it to be a huge success, because it would put the reaction to the prequels in a far more obvious light. They went as far as to start calling anything not written by Lucas fan fiction.

I haven't bothered to go into the "TFA Discussion for PT fans" or whatever it's called thread since TFA came out. But pre-release, they were in a negativity frenzy. So now post universal acclaim and unprecedented box office success... I can't even imagine how it is in there.

 

[Tony Stark]

No. Star Wars fandom is split. You have many who claim the prequels are not only great, but better then the "boring" OT. Just go to TFN and read some of the prequel talk.

This is the reason why many hardcore prequel fans pre-empetively attacked TFA. They did not want it to be a huge success, because it would put the reaction to the prequels in a far more obvious light. They went as far as to start calling anything not written by Lucas fan fiction.

I know one thing it did do was piss off a lot of the people who are super hard core into the EU.

I never really got into the EU, except for the video games. I did read the first three Timothy Zahn novels, and I didn't really care for them, so I never got into the EU.

Star Wars fans are quite an odd bunch and they are all over the place.

I'm somewhat of an odd duck myself, because at the time when I saw Empire Strikes Back in the theater I was mad, and couldn't say I liked it. I was only 10 years old and to end the film on a huge cliff hanger, and the possibility that Obi-Wan lied. It overwhelmed me, I wanted to hate the movie. It was only later that I began appreciate it, to where I can now confidently say it was the best Star Wars film made.

For those of us who were around to see the originals in the theater, the later generations have no idea how painful it was to wait for three years after the end of ESB to find out what happened to Han, and to find out if Darth Vader really was Luke's father.

I mean they spell it out pretty clearly in ESB, but there's a reason Luke has to ask Yoda in ROTJ, to get confirmation, because kids like me refused to believe it.

 

[Snow Queen]

I haven't bothered to go into the "TFA Discussion for PT fans" or whatever it's called thread since TFA came out. But pre-release, they were in a negativity frenzy. So now post universal acclaim and unprecedented box office success... I can't even imagine how it is in there.

Thank you for the idea of what to do tonight.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I haven't bothered to go into the "TFA Discussion for PT fans" or whatever it's called thread since TFA came out. But pre-release, they were in a negativity frenzy. So now post universal acclaim and unprecedented box office success... I can't even imagine how it is in there.

I haven't either, but it has leaked over to the main TFA discussion. It is so embarrassing.

Thank you for the idea of what to do tonight.

You are so horrible.

 

[PacificBoy]

To be fair isn't it the Star Wars fan-boys who hate on the prequels the most? Some go out of their way to pretend they don't exist.

I have a feeling for a good number of the general audience watching TFA especially in the younger generation, they probably have more connections to the prequels than the OT.

This applies to the Chinese audience. Which is why if you approach a random Chinese on the street and ask him/her who Luke Skywalker or Han Solo is you're likely to be given a blank look.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I know one thing it did do was piss off a lot of the people who are super hard core into the EU.

I never really got into the EU, except for the video games. I did read the first three Timothy Zahn novels, and I didn't really care for them, so I never got into the EU.

Star Wars fans are quite an odd bunch and they are all over the place.

I'm somewhat of an odd duck myself, because at the time when I saw Empire Strikes Back in the theater I was mad, and couldn't say I liked it. I was only 10 years old and to end the film on a huge cliff hanger, and the possibility that Obi-Wan lied. It overwhelmed me, I wanted to hate the movie. It was only later that I began appreciate it, to where I can now confidently say it was the best Star Wars film made.

For those of us who were around to see the originals in the theater, the later generations have no idea how painful it was to wait for three years after the end of ESB to find out what happened to Han, and to find out if Darth Vader really was Luke's father.

I mean they spell it out pretty clearly in ESB, but there's a reason Luke has to ask Yoda in ROTJ, to get confirmation, because kids like me refused to believe it.

The hardcore EU crowd is a very vocal minority. Very vocal.

I can't imagine watching Empire in theaters are waiting. Since as far back as I can remember, it has all been in my head, the whole story. I have heard about the stories of kids not believing that Vader was telling the truth, and that is exactly why we have the Yoda scene in RotJ.

 

[Snow Queen]

I haven't either, but it has leaked over to the main TFA discussion. It is so embarrassing.


You are so horrible.

I have never denied this.

 

[titansupes]

Thank you for the idea of what to do tonight.

You'll regret it.

I haven't either, but it has leaked over to the main TFA discussion. It is so embarrassing.

Oh, tell me about it. It's annoying, but also satisfying watching them wail in their sinking ships.

(Not to say all PT fans are like that, mind you).

 

[Snow Queen]

You'll regret it.

I do.

Though the biggest shock of the night is a user is named "Shaak Ti" and has only been a member since Tuesday. In all the years this site has been active...no one ever took that?

 

[Marvolo]

I was actually thinking the same. If there's ever going to be a franchise that could even come close to rivalling Star Wars it's going to be Potter. I'm friends with a girl who is in her early 20's and Potter means the world to her. I think her generation will pass on their love of Potter in the same way people did for Star Wars.

Ill pass on both. My first love is star wars, but my love of Harry Potter is the only thing close to my love of star wars. They both captured me at a young age, and I grew up with both. Star Wars has been a part of my life for as long as I can remember so it's damn near impossible to separate myself and it. It's influenced so many facets of myself that it really boggles my mind when I think about it.

 

[Sithborg]

No. Star Wars fandom is split. You have many who claim the prequels are not only great, but better then the "boring" OT. Just go to TFN and read some of the prequel talk.

This is the reason why many hardcore prequel fans pre-empetively attacked TFA. They did not want it to be a huge success, because it would put the reaction to the prequels in a far more obvious light. They went as far as to start calling anything not written by Lucas fan fiction.

I like the comparison to the Godzilla fandom (which the main site I browse makes TFN look sane). There are some very distinct eras of movies for Godzilla films. And there are a lot of groups that have different preferences. Which leads to a LOT of conflict.

Thank you for the idea of what to do tonight.

Always good for a laugh. Nothing beats their paranoia of the people in charge just dismissing the PT. And the way they twisted JJ's words, was a feat of mental gymnastics. I look forward to the loss of their messiah, Rian Johnson, when he says something critical of the PT.

The hardcore EU crowd is a very vocal minority. Very vocal.

The hardcore of the hardcore, from what I have read, are beyond vocal. I have heard reports of harassment at DragonCon, and other places. It is really sad.


As for the Box Office, I think $75 would be very respectable third weekend, going of a $133 weekend this week. The hard drops are going to happen. If TFA can keep it in the 40% range, then the film has got some legs.

 

[spider-neil]

It has to be said that what Avatar did was incredible. It made 10m a week for literally MONTHS. I don't know if TFA has those kind of legs.

 

[InCali]

As for the Box Office, I think $75 would be very respectable third weekend, going of a $133 weekend this week. The hard drops are going to happen. If TFA can keep it in the 40% range, then the film has got some legs.

Unless something happened while I was asleep, it was 153M and I think 90M+ is probably a reasonable 3rd weekend take. I think it can stay in the 40% drop range and probably a little bit lower further out in time.

 

[Iceman]

It has to be said that what Avatar did was incredible. It made 10m a week for literally MONTHS. I don't know if TFA has those kind of legs.

Not legs like that as so many people have already seen TFA at this stage compared to Avatar but with such a good reception and being a winter film with less competition, it can outdo the legs for other big summer films. Having a x4 multiplier means $1B and x5 means another quarter billion! It doesn't need to get anywhere near Avatar's x10 to do even more stupid numbers.

 

[InCali]

I love LotR. I grew up with it, so when the movies came around, I geeked the heck out. But HP captured the teen and young adult demo in a way few things do. It also appeals evenly to both sexes. Hermione is modern Leia.

Even though I liked the first trilogy, I can't really include movies of Tolkien's work in my favorites. The reason?? I'm such a Tolkien freak/purist/maniac/and several other names, that I just couldn't stand the omission of Bombadil, Farmer Maggot, Barrow-downs, Glorfindel, and, well, you get the picture. I wish PJ had made 6 movies (one for each book).

I can't say I was completely disappointed with the LotR trilogy. I was freaking out waiting in line to get in to see The Fellowship because I was running late and was terrified that I was going to miss the beginning. It's just that if someone is going to make movies about my all time favorite books, I NEED them to follow it religiously. What I wouldn't give to see a high quality, netflix series type of production of The Silmarillion.

If you don't believe that I am an utterly hopeless Tolkien (fill in the blank), check out my collection in the link below. I've probably read LotR upwards of 70-100 times (There's a story behind that as I used to be an insomniac and can give good advice on how to cure it.) and The Silmarillion maybe 20 times. Add in The History of Middle Earth (12 volumes), The Children of Húrin (Narn i Chîn Húrin), and Unfinished Tales and you'll start to get the picture.

Pathetic, isn't it?

http://www.cloudvistas.com/the-world-of-j-r-r-tolkien/

EDIT: Recently added the Easton Press versions of Unfinished Tales and Lost Tales to my collection and am actively searching for that publisher's printing of The Children of Húrin.

 

[InCali]

Not legs like that as so many people have already seen TFA at this stage compared to Avatar but with such a good reception and being a winter film with less competition, it can outdo the legs for other big summer films. Having a x4 multiplier means $1B and x5 means another quarter billion! It doesn't need to get anywhere near Avatar's x10 to do even more stupid numbers.

Exactly correct in my opinion. I also think as we move further and further from the release date, we'll start to see Avatar like holds. Obviously, you couldn't have that at the very beginning of TFA's run.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I still don't get the Avatar comparisons on the legs front. It's simple math, the movie opened with way, way more than Avatar, it doesn't need Avatar legs to crush Avatar in North America. The film opened too large for Avatar style legs to have been a factor, it's having a good run, no need for Avatar legs at all. I think Spider-Man (the opening weekend record breaker in 2002) legs but longer because of the holidays is what people should be looking forward to.

 

[Iceman]

Sounds about right. Spidey 1 had a 3.5x summer multiplier so adjusting for Winter could go somewhere between the x4 and x5 that would see TFA between $1B and $1.25B.

 

[InCali]

I still don't get the Avatar comparisons on the legs front. It's simple math, the movie opened with way, way more than Avatar, it doesn't need Avatar legs to crush Avatar in North America. The film opened too large for Avatar style legs to have been a factor, it's having a good run, no need for Avatar legs at all. I think Spider-Man (the opening weekend record breaker in 2002) legs but longer because of the holidays is what people should be looking forward to.

If you are referring to my post, I'll try to explain what I'm saying. I'm not talking about Avatar type multipliers or legs close to the opening of the movie. What I'm saying is that as the front loading of TFA goes away, I think we'll start to see weekly percentage drops along the lines of what Avatar had in weeks 5, 6, 7, etc. This will obviously mean that there won't be any crazy 10x multiplier, but that a +4x or, possibly even a 5x multiplier will be the result at the end of TFA's run.