The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Wildcard]

Any franchise can avoid fatigue, just depends on who's attached to the projects and whether they're offering anything worthy of the viewer. If so, fans will turn up every single time.

So, what are the chances of this hitting $1 billion on its second weekend? It blew away literally all of my predictions and even made over $500 million. And with some solid word of mouth churning, I don't see it having too steep of a drop for its second go 'round. At the least it should fall just a few million short, no?

 

[Tilapia]

I am not saying that we will see a star wars movie ever year for the next 15 years but there is a big difference between having a star wars movie ever year for the next 15 years and saying taking a 10 year break after episode 9 comes out. Yes the international market getting bigger helps movies. I guess you can say that the international market getting bigger is bad and good. Its bad because it means it is getting less likely that a movie can truly flop. At the same time maybe with having the international market to make more money maybe people who make movies can be a little more less worried about people not liking a movie and tanking more chansess.

That's exactly what people are calling for. MCU style 1-2 movies a year. If you view this trilogy as a phase III, +3/4 spinoffs, that takes you through this decade. I do not expect a P4 to immediately follow that. I would expect some TV and a phase 3.5 before 10-12 is even rumored. And like a lot of people, I expect them to go backward before going forward in the timeline. 5-8 years between major trilogies is typical with most franchises. 4 years at the very least. So I would say episode 10 is at least 20 years away.

 

[Rocketman]

I want 10 Star Wars movies every year for the next 15 years. And the thought of waiting 2 years for Episode VIII is excruciating.

 

[InCali]

I want 10 Star Wars movies every year for the next 15 years. And the thought of waiting 2 years for Episode VIII is excruciating.

I'm with you. While that's probably unrealistic and keeping the quality up going at a pace like that would be next to impossible, I get your drift.

Fatigue = a bad movie

If you can put out a quality project, people will come. Marvel put out a movie about Ant-Man for crying out loud and made a boatload of money because it was good. While some people will point to fatigue because it ONLY grossed over 500M, it was so fatigued that it got a sequel almost immediately.

 

[Lord]

I hope they don't start making more than one Star Wars movie per year, that would be overkill imao. One per year is already a lot.

Any franchise can avoid fatigue, just depends on who's attached to the projects and whether they're offering anything worthy of the viewer. If so, fans will turn up every single time.

But when you overtell a certain genre or franchise, you will start seeing a fatigue and the feeling of having already seen everything that could come out of it. Part of the reason the Western genre is pretty much dead has to do with almost every story that could come out of it having been told already, not to mention the style already beeing considered "old fashiones" due to having been used for too long.

Too much of a good thing sometimes doesn't lead towards the best results. Do Star Wars films with quality and the necessary time, no need to turn it into a factory.

 

[Sithborg]

If superhero films can avoid fatigue then Star Wars can avoid fatigue.

Except, I think superhero films are facing fatigue. They are no longer clearly the top of the box office. I mean, THREE films beat AoU this year. While AoU is clearly a successful movie, it does suggest people want something other than superheroes. Hopefully, the one movie a year strategy will keep Star Wars relevant, though I do expect sharp drops with VIII.

Any franchise can avoid fatigue, just depends on who's attached to the projects and whether they're offering anything worthy of the viewer. If so, fans will turn up every single time.

So, what are the chances of this hitting $1 billion on its second weekend? It blew away literally all of my predictions and even made over $500 million. And with some solid word of mouth churning, I don't see it having too steep of a drop for its second go 'round. At the least it should fall just a few million short, no?

Considering they are talking about $50 million of the presales were for next weekend (Christmas eve and day, most likely), pretty darn good. I think we are getting a pretty darn good second weekend.

 

[InCali]

Except, I think superhero films are facing fatigue. They are no longer clearly the top of the box office. I mean, THREE films beat AoU this year. While AoU is clearly a successful movie, it does suggest people want something other than superheroes. Hopefully, the one movie a year strategy will keep Star Wars relevant, though I do expect sharp drops with VIII.



Considering they are talking about $50 million of the presales were for next weekend (Christmas eve and day, most likely), pretty darn good. I think we are getting a pretty darn good second weekend.

I don't think so. If making almost 2B at the box office with 2 movies is fatigue, I want some of that superhero fatigue. No movie is going to be #1 at the box office every single time. Marvel, SW, HP types have a very good chance, but occasionally someone catches lightning in a bottle and you have a crazy hit (Titanic is a good example).

Marvel is putting out 2 and 3 movies a year and they are virtually all doing well. The upcoming ones are lesser known characters and won't pull in Avengers type of numbers, but if they are good, they'll do just fine. AoU didn't do as well as the first movie because the general consensus seemed to be that it wasn't as good as the first one. I personally disagree with that, but my opinion about a given movie doesn't count for much. The first Avengers was new and different and people flocked, but that doesn't = fatigue for AoU. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Mysteryman]

Let's worry about fatigue when we're there.
Clearly we are not there yet.

 

[InCali]

Let's worry about fatigue when we're there.
Clearly we are not there yet.

I'm worried about crappy movies......

Anyone want to start up a petition to bring back Josh Trank to direct SW? t:

 

[InCali]

I hope they don't start making more than one Star Wars movie per year, that would be overkill imao. One per year is already a lot.



But when you overtell a certain genre or franchise, you will start seeing a fatigue and the feeling of having already seen everything that could come out of it. Part of the reason the Western genre is pretty much dead has to do with almost every story that could come out of it having been told already, not to mention the style already beeing considered "old fashiones" due to having been used for too long.

Too much of a good thing sometimes doesn't lead towards the best results. Do Star Wars films with quality and the necessary time, no need to turn it into a factory.

I think they could put out more than one per year IF they can expand the character groups along the lines that Marvel has. I guarantee you it's being discussed within Disney......next up, Netflix and a TV show.....or 2.

Focus on quality and let the chips fall where they may would be my advice.

 

[Iceman]

Except, I think superhero films are facing fatigue. They are no longer clearly the top of the box office. I mean, THREE films beat AoU this year. While AoU is clearly a successful movie, it does suggest people want something other than superheroes. Hopefully, the one movie a year strategy will keep Star Wars relevant, though I do expect sharp drops with VIII.

People definitely want variety and the results of Star Wars and Jurassic World reflect that. They don't want only superhero movies to dominate the biggest films, but that doesn't mean they don't want superhero films as much as they used to. They just want the other genres to step up. I don't think that equates to fatigue with superhero films as long as the quality remains high.

 

[Jostru]

I want 10 Star Wars movies every year for the next 15 years. And the thought of waiting 2 years for Episode VIII is excruciating.

This. The moment the credits started to roll, I already wanted to see Episode VIII. But at least we "only" have to wait 2 years in stead of 3 as was customary with the franchise. And we get Rogue One to keep us warm. Though I don't really care about that one, to be honest

 

[Iceman]

I want 10 Star Wars movies every year for the next 15 years. And the thought of waiting 2 years for Episode VIII is excruciating.

You know that means 2 months every year with no Star Wars film? Don't sell us short!

 

[InCali]

I think TFA has a very, very good chance to overtake Avatar in the US/Canada. Jurassic World had a multiplier of just over 3.12. If you apply the same multiplier to the opening week (estimated) of TFA, that would work out to about 743.5M. Avatar took in 750M (I don't count re-releases because it's apples and oranges). TFA would only need a multiplier of about 3.15 to take over the #1 spot. Given the time of year and how obviously people were starved for a new SW movie, I think it's highly unlikely that it doesn't get a much better multiplier than JW (which had a lot of goodwill going for it, but nothing close to the fanaticism of the SW faithful). Final US/Canada predictions???

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

I just bought 15 tickets to the Airbus IMAX theater (Laser projection FTW!) for next Saturday. I bet families will be making special holiday plans to go see this together like I'm doing. Plus kids are out for the next two weeks and everyone's getting "gift cards" and extra cash.

This thing ain't slowing down.

 

[Lord]

I think they could put out more than one per year IF they can expand the character groups along the lines that Marvel has. I guarantee you it's being discussed within Disney......next up, Netflix and a TV show.....or 2.

Focus on quality and let the chips fall where they may would be my advice.

I definitely want more tv shows, in particular that live-action one that has been announced for many years, as well as something out of Netflix similar to The Clone Wars, a show centered around the same period as the new Marvel series would be perfect for me (even if they were just adaptations of the comics).

But making various films per year is dangerous, starts taking away the "novelty" of the films. I think WB is right now handling the Harry Potter franchise well, they're going towards yearly releases but making each new run of content seem fresh. They're also letting enough time pass in between films.

 

[Sithborg]

I am also willing to bet that there will be no announcement of X until well after IX's run. Got to build that hype for the finale. Which would put probably 5 years inbetween trilogies, which I think would work.

We will have to see how the Anthologies do.

 

[Iceman]

I just bought 15 tickets to the Airbus IMAX theater (Laser projection FTW!) for next Saturday. I bet families will be making special holiday plans to go see this together like I'm doing. Plus kids are out for the next two weeks and everyone's getting "gift cards" and extra cash.

This thing ain't slowing down.

15? Wow!!

 

[InCali]

I just bought 15 tickets to the Airbus IMAX theater (Laser projection FTW!) for next Saturday. I bet families will be making special holiday plans to go see this together like I'm doing. Plus kids are out for the next two weeks and everyone's getting "gift cards" and extra cash.

This thing ain't slowing down.

You are going to LOVE the picture those dual IMAX projectors put out and the sound is the best I've heard. The added 6 channels (inc sub bass). That's killer. Have fun with the crowd. Sounds awesome.

I agree that this movie is going to have some major, major legs. I'm thinking it will push 800M and maybe go higher. There's just nothing out there for weeks until the 5th Wave and Deadpool hit, but, c'mon, they ain't SW.

EDIT: Oops.....forgot to add Zoolander 2 to the competition.......I'll bet Disney is just dreading that particular release from Paramount.

 

[danoyse]

I just bought 15 tickets to the Airbus IMAX theater (Laser projection FTW!) for next Saturday. I bet families will be making special holiday plans to go see this together like I'm doing. Plus kids are out for the next two weeks and everyone's getting "gift cards" and extra cash.

This thing ain't slowing down.

I've heard about a few people who bought tickets for their kids as Christmas presents. The week the kids are off from school is going to be nuts.

 

[InCali]

I've heard about a few people who bought tickets for their kids as Christmas presents. The week the kids are off from school is going to be nuts.

So what sort of drop do people think we'll see? An Avatarlike drop would be all but impossible, but a 60% hold would generally be considered great....esp with something that opened anywhere close to this strong. Both Avengers and JW had about 50% drops (which wasn't bad).

I'm gonna hope for the best and say it'll pull about $140M and go over $400M sometime Saturday; maybe even Friday???

 

[Filmfan93]

Yeah, until Deadpool there aren't any major releases. And that gives SW a month and a half to dominate the box office.

Also, don't want to be rude, but I think Fox's decision to release the Alvin and Chipmunks sequel on the same day as TFA was a complete nonsense. It's like they deliberately wanted to lose money.

 

[Iceman]

Have we had this update (from http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-thursday-night-previews-1201669166/) while I was asleep? Looks like Sunday was better than expected.

Sunday Is Strong For ‘Force Awakens’ With All-Time $60M-$61M; Opening Weekend Record Now At $248.5-$250M – Monday AM Update

12th UPDATE, Monday 6:48AM: Disney has yet to weigh in with their official figures, but according to early morning industry estimates, Star Wars: The Force Awakens is taking the Sunday all-time record with $60.2M-$61.1M, which would beat Jurassic World‘s third day of $57.2M. This puts Force Awakens‘ weekend at a mindblowing $248.5M-$250.3M. For some this morning, they’re anticipating that Force Awakens actually hits $250M. Sunday was off -11% to -12% from Saturday which beats JW‘s hold over those two days of -18%.

 

[InCali]

Yeah, until Deadpool there aren't any major releases. And that gives SW a month and a half to dominate the box office.

Also, don't want to be rude, but I think Fox's decision to release the Alvin and Chipmunks sequel on the same day as TFA was a complete nonsense. It's like they deliberately wanted to lose money.

I know. Right? I mean, I had to sit through The Lion King, Shrek, etc., but if SW was playing, I'd be telling my 6 year old "If you want to go see the Chipmunks, your mom is going to have to take you or you'll have to go alone." t:

EDIT: The Chipmunks did ok opposite Avatar, but Avatar didn't draw 1/3 of these crowds and the followups after the sequel are tailing off.

 

[Asharad]

I just bought 15 tickets to the Airbus IMAX theater (Laser projection FTW!) for next Saturday. I bet families will be making special holiday plans to go see this together like I'm doing. Plus kids are out for the next two weeks and everyone's getting "gift cards" and extra cash.

This thing ain't slowing down.

I bought 10 tickets for my extended family yesterday. While we were there, a larger group of about 30 people came in together.