The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Bruce Malone]

You know i've always wondered what kind of western films do big business in China, Critical acclaims or action packed etc.

Top 10 highest grossing films in Chinese history (no inflation), western films highlighted:


1 Monster Hunt
2 Furious 7
3 Transformers: Age of Extinction
4 Lost in Hong Kong
5 Avengers: Age of Ultron
6 Goodbye Mr. Loser
7 Jurassic World
8 Avatar
9 Lost in Thailand
10 Journey to the West: Conquering the Demons

FF7 was at one point the highest grossing film in China ever but was just passed over by Monster Hunt barely.

Also as you can see it's definitely critical acclaim they go for.

 

[jokesonm3]

Hmm, so Critical acclaims out of the question since Transformers: Age of Extinction is on that list So i'm gonna lean towards action packed more.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Still better than England, who've had Mamma Mia as its highest grosser for a time.

 

[spiderman2]

You are discounting the film having real legs around the world. Longrt legs then JW.

Yeah but is part of why I was saying how while is it doing in the rest of the world out side of USA compared to JW? I haven't really seen any thing about how much it is dropping off outside USA compared to how it was dropping off with JW.

 

[jokesonm3]

This films gonna have legs longer than a NBA player.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Top 10 highest grossing films in Chinese history (no inflation), western films highlighted:


1 Monster Hunt
2 Furious 7
3 Transformers: Age of Extinction
4 Lost in Hong Kong
5 Avengers: Age of Ultron
6 Goodbye Mr. Loser
7 Jurassic World
8 Avatar
9 Lost in Thailand
10 Journey to the West: Conquering the Demons

FF7 was at one point the highest grossing film in China ever but was just passed over by Monster Hunt barely.

Also as you can see it's definitely critical acclaim they go for.

Notice how they are all recent, and none are the first film in a franchise other then Avatar? How does that not bode well for TFA?

 

[spiderman2]

This films gonna have legs longer than a NBA player.

lol

 

[DarthSkywalker]

This films gonna have legs longer than a NBA player.

Should have put Yao in the movie. $1 billion in China guaranteed.

 

[spiderman2]

Should have put Yao in the movie. $1 billion in China guaranteed.

Disney is slimpling by not doing that.

Notice how they are all recent, and none are the first film in a franchise other then Avatar? How does that not bode well for TFA?

While part of that is that china has really exploded the last few years.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Disney is slimpling by not doing that.

He could have played Chewie.

While part of that is that china has really exploded the last few years.

I know. That is another thing that bodes well. Star Wars is far more accessible then something like Batman.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Notice how they are all recent, and none are the first film in a franchise other then Avatar? How does that not bode well for TFA?

No I'm not saying it won't bode well I just don't agree that TFA will automatically make more money than Jurasic World or FF7 there like it is in North America.

If FF7 can make more money there than any of the Avengers films and Jurasic World, that's a market that's too unpredictable to be sure of in any way really.

So it's to early to call China the deciding factor in TFA potentially passing Avatar.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

No I'm not saying it won't bode well I just don't agree that TFA will automatically make more money than Jurasic World or FF7 there like it is in North America.

If FF7 can make more money there than any of the Avengers films and Jurasic World, that's a market that's too unpredictable to be sure of in any way really.

So it's to early to call China the deciding factor in TFA potentially passing Avatar.

I never said it would, nor does it have to. Though I do find it weird that we are once again comparing Star Wars to other films franchises. This was said about the international box office as a whole, and it is literally neck and neck with the domestic and overseas numbers for TFA. Both are historic. I don't think they are selling nostalgia everywhere.

 

[Bruce Malone]

My original point was in reference to someone asking if TFA could beat Avatar WW.

In the end to gross over 2.7 billion worldwide, even with its expected massive domestic gross it's going to have to do phenomenally better OS than JW did.

As of now it's tracking better than JW but not out of this world better, it hasn't arrived in China yet so that's how we got to this discussion. I'll leave it as that that it will likely do great in China but better than any of the recent blockbusters is still to be determined.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I've seen people on here wondering if TFA could do record breaking numbers in China (400+mil) but I haven't seen anyone guaranteeing that it would. I myself just guessed a massive but not record 300mil but that doesn't mean it's a failure if it doesn't hit that number, which it easily might not. A box office prediction is just that, a prediction. It might be wrong and it might be right.

 

[Jostru]

Hmm, so Critical acclaims out of the question since Transformers: Age of Extinction is on that list So i'm gonna lean towards action packed more.

The main reason Transformers did so well there, is because a large portion (including the climax) was set in Hong Kong and it featured a couple of famous (?) Chinese/asian actors, including Li Bingbing and Ken Watanabe. Without those elements, I highly doubt the movie would've earned that much money over there.

 

[spider-neil]

What is the drop off for TFA second week compared to Avatar?

 

[Iceman]

2nd weekend Avatar had almost no drop at all but there was terrible weather on Avatar's first weekend.

Edit: Just looked it up. -1.8% $75.6m vs $77m.

 

[cheungcheung]

2nd weekend Avatar had almost no drop at all but there was terrible weather on Avatar's first weekend.

Edit: Just looked it up. -1.8% $75.6m vs $77m.

I remember driving home in a huge snowstorm from my avatar imax screening on opening weekend. My friend's mom even called her to tell her to book a hotel room near the theater vs. driving home lol

 

[Iceman]

I remember driving home in a huge snowstorm from my avatar imax screening on opening weekend. My friend's mom even called her to tell her to book a hotel room near the theater vs. driving home lol

Oh yeah I remember hearing it was really bad. Must have had an impact on a proportion of people not going/putting it off.

 

[Iceman]

You know i've always wondered what kind of western films do big business in China

I know they go crazy for Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, A Fistful of Dollars and The Good, The Bad & The Ugly.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Oh yeah I remember hearing it was really bad. Must have had an impact on a proportion of people not going/putting it off.

The weather was horrible in 2009 and it clearly hurt Avatar's opening weekend. I remember people calling Avatar's opening weekend disappointing, they ignored the snow storms and the fact that 77mil in December is actually a strong opening and that legs exist. A lot of people seemingly wanted Avatar to fail.

 

[JOE]

All 4 showings are packed at my theatre today. Luckily I bought tickets for Sunday last week lol! 2nd and definitely not my last showing for me. Will probably end up seeing it at least 3 times.

 

[InCali]

China is as likely to go head over heels over SW as it did JW or freaking FF7, there is no nostalgia factor there to sell like in North America.

I just can't see the Chinese going that crazy for SW much more at least than those films.

There was no nostalgia factor for Ep 4 (ANH) when it was released in the US and last time I checked, I think it did sort of ok. I'll have to double check the box office charts on that one and get back to you.

The point is that nostalgia sells, but sometimes something new and different catches our imagination and just goes nuts. Certainly, a positive familiarity helps, but isn't necessary. TFA "could" go nuts in China, could have great legs WW, and WILL do over 1B US/Canada (maybe "well" over).

It's true the stars will have to align to hit 2.75B, but that's what it takes to get up into the stratosphere.

This films gonna have legs longer than a NBA player.

Muggsy Bogues??

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muggsy_Bogues

 

[Iceman]

The weather was horrible in 2009 and it clearly hurt Avatar's opening weekend. I remember people calling Avatar's opening weekend disappointing, they ignored the snow storms and the fact that 77mil in December is actually a strong opening and that legs exist. A lot of people seemingly wanted Avatar to fail.

Oh yes. I was in that box office thread throughout and it wasn't the friendliest place!

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't even care for Avatar as a film but the call for that film's demise was as silly.

I must say that The Force Awakens success doesn't depend on it beating Avatar worldwide. It's going to make over 2 billion, it will be an incredible success no matter what. It loses nothing if it doesn't best Avatar.