The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[spiderman2]

Boxoffice.com's projection for the four day weekend is $32 million.

Oh I thought it was more like 40.

 

[spiderman2]

So how much longer do you think it will take for 200 million OW to like became the new 100 million? What I mean is 100 million used to be a really big OW number but now it is a lot more common. Spider man back in 2002 was the first movie to have 100m OW. Now there are like 33 movies or something that have done it. Now I would say the really big number is more like 140+. So what about 200?

 

[Bruce Malone]

Still a good deal time away. Only 3 films in history have opened to 200 million+ keep that in perspective.

That is the exception not the rule. Although every blockbuster is going to be compared to TFA's opening now which isn't a fair expectation.

Age of Ultron wasn't able to replicate the 200 million opening of the first one.

 

[spiderman2]

Still a good deal time away. Only 3 films in history have opened to 200 million+ keep that in perspective.

That is the exception not the rule. Although every blockbuster is going to be compared to TFA's opening now which isn't a fair expectation.

Age of Ultron wasn't able to replicate the 200 million opening of the first one.

Yeah but we also had 2 this year when we only had 1 ever before this last year. So I just wonder how much longer before it because more of a normal thing rather then the exception. I also wonder how much longer before a movie makes 300m OW. Maybe star wars episode 10 can do 300m lol. So how likely is it that this movie is going to make more then titanic? Also by the end of Monday are we maybe going to be at 1.9 billion WW? I think he are at about 1.8 now so around another 100m WW between tomorrow and Monday sound right?

 

[InCali]

Yeah but we also had 2 this year when we only had 1 ever before this last year. So I just wonder how much longer before it because more of a normal thing rather then the exception. I also wonder how much longer before a movie makes 300m OW. Maybe star wars episode 10 can do 300m lol. So how likely is it that this movie is going to make more then titanic? Also by the end of Monday are we maybe going to be at 1.9 billion WW? I think he are at about 1.8 now so around another 100m WW between tomorrow and Monday sound right?

Titanic made 1.8B WW in its opening run. 600M DOM. Cameron waited a long time and then re-released it in 3D. That made it a good chunk of money (almost 400M).

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Is 900m USA still a lock?

Yup. I don't think it gets to $950 million, though.

$4.5 million in China Thursday, putting it at $75.7 million headed into the weekend.

 

[InCali]

Yup. I don't think it gets to $950 million, though.

If it hits 900M, a 45/55 DOM split gets it to exactly 2B WW. Or, you can look at it like this.....


If it hits 900M DOM, at the current DOM/OS split (48/52) without China, it would get about 975 OS. The latter is low because it appears to be holding better OS than DOM and the split has widened somewhat of late.

900 DOM
975 OS (sans China)
China would have to come in at 125M to hit the 2B mark. I believe China is currently about 1/2 way there.

or look at it like this....


If it hits 925M DOM, at the current DOM/OS split (48/52) without China, it would get about 1.002B OS.


925 DOM
1002 OS (sans China)
China would have to come in at 73M to hit the 2B mark. I believe China is currently about 8M short of that mark.

Your Friendly Neighborhood Number Cruncher....

EDIT: My China numbers are outdated because I made the mistake of checking with Box Office Mojo instead of our Old Guy.

 

[Golgo-13]

Will the Oscar nom/possible wins boost repeat viewings...?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Will the Oscar nom/possible wins boost repeat viewings...?

Doubtful. None of the nominations are in the marquee categories.

 

[InCali]

Will the Oscar nom/possible wins boost repeat viewings...?

Maybe, but I wouldn't think so. It might work for a movie like The Revenant because there are probably a lot of people out there who don't really know much about it and might say "Oh, it's supposed to be a good movie. I think I'll go.). I'm making a wild guess that people sort of know about Star Wars and those that are prone to see it have and those who aren't probably aren't going to change their mind.


That'd be my take, but I'm no expert.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Wednesday domestic about the same as Monday's, $3.1 million. Domestic total ticks up to $822.8 million. Sounds like Mickey can upgrade to a steak burrito at lunch today.

 

[JOE]

I see this film falling around 905-915M DOM which is fantastic. Which would mean it'd have to make just under 1.3B OS to beat Titanic. 3rd place it is, lol. Still BEAUTIFUL, so glad this movie is having a stellar run.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Per mojo, tomorrow TFA will lose screens for the first time (on day 29!). It will lose 312 screens, a 7.5% decline.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

With all of the Oscar nominations The Revenant is definitely going to do better than Star Wars this weekend. I'm thinking it will drop to 3rd place.

 

[Bruce Malone]

TFA is playing more like a traditional blockbuster from this point on.

Even though it earned some comparisons to Avatar in regards to longevity and drops early on, I think I'd classify its run more accurately as a traditional blockbuster on steroids. As opposed to Avatar's run when it was still making 40 million in its 5th weekend I believe.

 

[Iceman]

So how much longer do you think it will take for 200 million OW to like became the new 100 million? What I mean is 100 million used to be a really big OW number but now it is a lot more common. Spider man back in 2002 was the first movie to have 100m OW. Now there are like 33 movies or something that have done it. Now I would say the really big number is more like 140+. So what about 200?

Will be a good while (guessing at least 7 years) I think before $200m weekends occur frequently. $150m is getting quite common now though.

 

[spiderman2]

So let me get this right. The movie is at about 1.78 billion and has at like worst 75m left USA? The movie is doing better outside the USA right now? So may have around say 115m at worst not counting china? Then it has like at least 50m left in china? So like 240 at worst left? That would mean like at worst the movie gets around 2.02 billion? That would still be around 180m or so shy of avatar? I really want to catch titanic but doesn't look likely now. While maybe episode 8 can do even more?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Episode 8 will have to make up for a guaranteed decline in North America.

 

[Bruce Malone]

So let me get this right. The movie is at about 1.78 billion and has at like worst 75m left USA? The movie is doing better outside the USA right now? So may have around say 115m at worst not counting china? Then it has like at least 50m left in china? So like 240 at worst left? That would mean like at worst the movie gets around 2.02 billion? That would still be around 180m or so shy of avatar? I really want to catch titanic but doesn't look likely now. While maybe episode 8 can do even more?

That would be over 700 million behind Avatar unless you meant Titanic there?

 

[spiderman2]

Episode 8 will have to make up for a guaranteed decline in North America.

How much of a decline though? Part of me thinks maybe it will not decline because part of me thinks that maybe episode 7 will end getting people back into it that gave up on star wars after the prequles. While maybe china will do a lot more with episode 8 because china is continuing to expanded a lot and star wars is not a while know thing in china. So maybe 7 can be the start of building china up with star wars.

That would be over 700 million behind Avatar unless you meant Titanic there?

lol yes I mean titanic. What are the odds of catching titanic?

 

[flickchick85]

Oh Episode 8 will definitely decline. Episode VII had years of pent-up hype/nostalgia on its side, and that's far more powerful than your usual "good 1st movie yields strong returns for sequel" boost.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I think another thing is the "Curiosity Factor", whereby a lot of people who wouldn't necessarily be into that genre of film go and check it out due to all the hype associated with it.

That was a big factor as to why Avengers 1 did so well. I know some people who were not into comic films at all who went to see it due to all the hype. However they and a lot of others (domestically at least) didn't show up for AoU.

I think for TFA there were definitely people who went to see it just to see what the big deal was?

 

[spiderman2]

I think another thing is the "Curiosity Factor", whereby a lot of people who wouldn't necessarily be into that genre of film go and check it out due to all the hype associated with it.

That was a big factor as to why Avengers 1 did so well. I know some people who were not into comic films at all who went to see it due to all the hype. However they and a lot of others (domestically at least) didn't show up for AoU.

I think for TFA there were definitely people who went to see it just to see what the big deal was?

AOU made about 164 million less in USA then the first one. But also people found avengers to be a lot better then AOU and it had being the very first movie of its kind being a like team up of different superheros. If AOU had been consider better I am sure that 164 difference would have been much less has I am sure AOU had less repeat views then the first one. Star wars 7 didn't have the advantage of being the first movie of its kind like avengers did.

 

[spiderman2]

Oh Episode 8 will definitely decline. Episode VII had years of pent-up hype/nostalgia on its side, and that's far more powerful than your usual "good 1st movie yields strong returns for sequel" boost.

Oh much could there really have been at first though when you had 3 crap movies in a row with episode 1,2 and 3? Don't you think that may have pushed some people away from 7 and don't you think 7 reception may bring back some of those people?

 

[flickchick85]

Oh much could there really have been at first though when you had 3 crap movies in a row with episode 1,2 and 3? Don't you think that may have pushed some people away from 7 and don't you think 7 reception may bring back some of those people?

Some, but not nearly as many as the initial Episode 7 hype train brought back. For this installment, the new Lucas-free Star Wars was a mystery that everyone needed to check out - recapture their childhood, share with their families and generally see if they could recapture that OT magic that the prequels lost. And of course for the rest, they just had to see what the fuss was about, even if they hadn't seen a SW before, or if it just wasn't their cup o' tea in the past. This was a new vision for arguably the biggest cinematic phenomenon in history. No one knew what they were gonna get, and that was a huge part of the hype, because the more we saw, the more it looked like the Star Wars we all wanted it to be. NOW, the mystique is gone, we all have a much better idea of what the new Star Wars universe looks like, so it's much less of a "let's see what all the fuss is about" kind of event.

Since we now kinda know what we're getting in a vague sense, people will now either be on board for it or not, just like every other major franchise blockbuster.