The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[spiderman2]

Some, but not nearly as many as the initial Episode 7 hype train brought back. For this installment, the new Lucas-free Star Wars was a mystery that everyone needed to check out - recapture their childhood, share with their families and generally see if they could recapture that OT magic that the prequels lost. And of course for the rest, they just had to see what the hype was about, even if they hadn't seen a SW before. No one knew what they were gonna get, and that was a huge part of the hype, because the more we saw, the more it looked like the Star Wars we all wanted it to be. NOW, the mystique is gone, we all have a much better idea of what the new Star Wars universe looks like, so it's much less of a "let's see what all the fuss is about" kind of event.

Since we now kinda know what we're getting in a vague sense, people will now either be on board for it or not, just like every other major franchise blockbuster.

Yeah but people thought episode 1 and 2 and even 3 looked good from the previews and episode 1 had a lot of hype back then. Don't you think there where some people that thought episode 7 was just going to end up being a movie with hype that ends up sucking? Also star wars is not just another blockbuster movie. 5 of like the 7 star wars movies have ended up being the biggest movie of that year. The fact that people hated and I mean hated episode 1 and yet the movie made like 900m with no 3d and with like 16-17 years of inflation just shows how big this franchise is. Like any another franchise if they had a movie that ended up sucking has much has 1 would have done much worse money wise then that movie. This movie has done better then I though but even with that said even before the movie came out I thought episode 8 would be the movie where if 7 was good then 8 would just make crazy ubserd money. Its like how I kind of fell about spider man now. I don't think spider man's first MCU movie is going to make even close to its full pretectional amount of money no matter how good it is because of the last 3 spider man movies. But if good then the next movie I think will do much better. Same kind of thing with star wars.

 

[flickchick85]

Yeah but people thought episode 1 and 2 and even 3 looked good from the previews and episode 1 had a lot of hype back then. Don't you think there where some people that thought episode 7 was just going to end up being a movie with hype that ends up sucking? Also star wars is not just another blockbuster movie. 5 of like the 7 star wars movies have ended up being the biggest movie of that year. The fact that people hated and I mean hated episode 1 and yet the movie made like 900m with no 3d and with like 16-17 years of inflation just shows how big this franchise is. Like any another franchise if they had a movie that ended up sucking has much has 1 would have done much worse money wise then that movie. This movie has done better then I though but even with that said even before the movie came out I thought episode 8 would be the movie where if 7 was good then 8 would just make crazy ubserd money. Its like how I kind of fell about spider man now. I don't think spider man's first MCU movie is going to make even close to its full pretectional amount of money no matter how good it is because of the last 3 spider man movies. But if good then the next movie I think will do much better. Same kind of thing with star wars.

It's certainly bigger than other blockbusters, but that doesn't mean each installment is going to be a box office phenomenon like this one was whenever they follow a good installment. As I said, there were special outside factors that pushed the hype for this one to an unprecedented level. A perfect storm, if you will. And that simply won't happen every time, especially not twice in a row.

 

[spiderman2]

It's certainly bigger than other blockbusters, but that doesn't mean each installment is going to be a box office phenomenon like this one was whenever they follow a good installment. As I said, there were special outside factors that pushed the hype for this one to an unprecedented level. A perfect storm, if you will. And that simply won't happen every time, especially not twice in a row.

While I am not saying that 8 will do better but I don't think it is a for sure thing that the movie will make less and even if its USA numbers go down its OS numbers could maybe go up and kind of make up for that. How much do you think it would go down USA rise? Lest say this movie ends at 900m how much do you think 8 would make? 800,700 ect? Also what is like the max that this movie is going to make WW now? What is like the lowest that this movie is going to make now? Sounds like lowest 2 billion. Maybe highest 2.2 billion?

 

[flickchick85]

While I am not saying that 8 will do better but I don't think it is a for sure thing that the movie will make less and even if its USA numbers go down its OS numbers could maybe go up and kind of make up for that. How much do you think it would go down USA rise? Lest say this movie ends at 900m how much do you think 8 would make? 800,700 ect? Also what is like the max that this movie is going to make WW now? What is like the lowest that this movie is going to make now? Sounds like lowest 2 billion. Maybe highest 2.2 billion?

Well obviously WOM plays a part, and while I think Episode 8 will be a well-praised installment because Rian Johnson is great, I also think it will be a bit more divisive among the GA and less of a "crowd pleaser" than Ep 7, so I think it will likely end up with slightly more mixed WOM than TFA even if it's a better film. Especially with the descriptions of it being "darker" and "weirder." So I wouldn't be surprised if it made somewhere around $700m domestically.

As for TFA, I'm far from a numbers expert, but $2-2.1B sounds reasonable to me.

 

[spiderman2]

Well obviously WOM plays a part, and while I think Episode 8 will be a well-praised installment because Rian Johnson is great, I also think it will be a bit more divisive among the GA and less of a "crowd pleaser" than Ep 7, so I think it will likely end up with slightly more mixed WOM than TFA even if it's a better film. Especially with the descriptions of it being "darker" and "weirder." So I wouldn't be surprised if it made somewhere around $700m domestically.

As for TFA, I'm far from a numbers expert, but $2-2.1B sounds reasonable to me.

Yeah WOM is big. If 8 has a similar WOM to 7 or even a little better I see it doing like 800-900 USA my self. I don't see it dropping off by 200m or more that is a lot in less it is consider a good amount worse then avengers to AOU was.

Yeah I am hoping for 2.2 for 7 to finish at but we will see. I think by the end of next weekend so going to 1/25 we will basically know the end amount. By then the movie will have been out for about a month and 7 days so its OS and USA numbers will mostly be down very little left in the tank by then has movies tend to make a high % of there box offices in the first 5 weekends and this movie has been fowling of faster the last week or so and by then the movie will have been out 3 weekends in china and considering it is not doing great in china and Kung fug panday comes out that week it will have very little left in china to.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

China tossed another $5.5 million in the pot Friday. Up to $81.2 million there now.

Thursday domestic take was $3.1 million so it heads into the weekend with $825.9 million.

 

[spiderman2]

So movies at about 1.789 billion going into today. I wonder if it will be at 1.9 by the end of Monday? So far has made 82m in china and sounds like at best it will end there at around 195m. I am going to say it ends up about 75% of the way between 82 and 195 so lets say 166m. That would be 84m more. Then I am going to say around 100m USA and like 150 OS not including china has OS has been doing more then USA even before china. So that would be 334m more to get the movie to about 2.123 or about 50-60 short of titatic.

 

[rashad]

So far has made 82m in china and sounds like at best it will end there at around 195m.

It won't make that much maybe between 115-135 at best. The WOM is not that great there.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Just waiting for this to pass 2 billion.

Third film in history and first non-Cameron film to do so.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

I imagine the box office for this sequel trilogy will play the way the prequel trilogy did. Huge opening/phenomenom, significant dip for the second installment and an increased (but probably not truly record-breaking) interest in the concluding chapter.

The big marketing push for the second movie, that will draw on the nostalgia factor this one had, will be seeing Luke back in action.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yeah I'm waiting for it to pass that 2 billion mark as well.

 

[Iceman]

Funny that we might even be disappointed with a figure like $700m for a sequel.

Shows what this resurgence has done to bring Star Wars right back to the undisputed no.1 franchise.

 

[Filmfan93]

Same here. Waiting for it to pass $2 billion. The 3rd highest grossing and the 3rd movie to gross over $2 billion will be a Star Wars movie. Will be just beautiful and a happy moment for all of us fans.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Ride Along 2 blowing up...

2nd UPDATE, 12:45PM: Universal Ride Along 2 is looking great in early Friday matinees on course for a $48M-$50M four-day weekend according to industry estimates. Tailing the Ice Cube-Kevin Hart sequel is 20th Century Fox/New Regency’s The Revenant in No. 2 with a FSSM between $32M-$34M, which could get the Alejandro Inarritu Oscar-nominated film in its fourth frame up to $92.1M by Monday. Disney’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens is between $28M-$31M for No. 3 in its fifth weekend, raising its running stateside all-time cume to $854M-$857M by the end of the holiday weekend.

http://deadline.com/2016/01/ride-along-2-begins-to-zoom-in-thursday-previews-box-office-1201683644/

 

[spiderman2]

It won't make that much maybe between 115-135 at best. The WOM is not that great there.

While that is at best but 115 sounds way to low. I know WOM is not the best there but after this weekend the movie is going to be at around 100m there. No way it only does 15m more then that when that is only after 2 weekends.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I imagine the box office for this sequel trilogy will play the way the prequel trilogy did. Huge opening/phenomenom, significant dip for the significant installment and an increased (but probably not truly record-breaking) interest in the concluding chapter.

The big marketing push for the second movie that will draw on the nostalgia factor this one had will be seeing Luke back in action.

I think the variables though this time as opposed to the prequels, are going to be all the Star Wars side projects to be released. Rogue One and the Han Solo prequel film at least.

That could either contribute to keeping Star Wars as the relevant box office franchise like the MCU maybe or potentially over-saturate the demand for Star Wars?

 

[Doctor Jones]

Well obviously WOM plays a part, and while I think Episode 8 will be a well-praised installment because Rian Johnson is great, I also think it will be a bit more divisive among the GA and less of a "crowd pleaser" than Ep 7, so I think it will likely end up with slightly more mixed WOM than TFA even if it's a better film. Especially with the descriptions of it being "darker" and "weirder." So I wouldn't be surprised if it made somewhere around $700m domestically.

As for TFA, I'm far from a numbers expert, but $2-2.1B sounds reasonable to me.

I wouldn't be surprised if this was the case. And we all know ESB wasn't the crowd pleaser when it first came out either.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

While that is at best but 115 sounds way to low. I know WOM is not the best there but after this weekend the movie is going to be at around 100m there. No way it only does 15m more then that when that is only after 2 weekends.

The first two weekends are all that counts in China. Screens start getting cut heavily after that. The fourth weekend is basically a joke and all imports get pulled after four weeks. 115 sounds about right.

 

[spiderman2]

The first two weekends are all that counts in China. Screens start getting cut heavily after that. The fourth weekend is basically a joke and all imports get pulled after four weeks. 115 sounds about right.

Want movies only play for 4 weekends in china?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Want movies only play for 4 weekends in china?

Foreign films only get 4 weeks. The Chinese do this to help ensure that their domestic film industry retains a dominant market share.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yep and that's why a film making as much money as possible in it's opening week is so important in China.

 

[spiderman2]

Foreign films only get 4 weeks. The Chinese do this to help ensure that their domestic film industry retains a dominant market share.

Oh wow that is crazy most theaters in the USA I think get 7 or 8 weekends.

 

[InCali]

Oh wow that is crazy most theaters in the USA I think get 7 or 8 weekends.

Ya, well the US doesn't really have to worry about its place in the film industry. Now, you listen to that Chick named Flick; she's on her shick.

 

[spiderman2]

Ya, well the US doesn't really have to worry about its place in the film industry. Now, you listen to that Chick named Flick; she's on her shick.

I wonder if the 4 week thing will change has theaters continue to expanded in china.

 

[PacificBoy]

I wonder if the 4 week thing will change has theaters continue to expanded in china.

Increasing screens means a movie is more likely to be frontloaded and earn most of its takings in the first two weeks and essentially wrapping up its business in a shorter time. If anything, having more screens means more big movies can be crammed in the same time, three, even two weeks apart.

The 4-week window isn't changing until the foreign film quota (at 34) and blackout periods (three times a year, 1-2 months long) are renegotiated in 2017 when the current deal with the WTO runs out.