The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Vincanws]

I'm thinking the Star Wars movies will follow the pattern of the original LOTR films, with the last instalment bringing the most box office, and the middle instalment somewhere in the middle.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Each LOTR film made more that the last one. I could see Star Wars 8 making more internationally but definitely not in North America.

 

[PacificBoy]

I don't how much more Episode VIII can make in the international markets than TFA, which is doing blockbuster (though not record-breaking) numbers.

 

[Lord]

Doesn't Rogue One have chinese stars? The Star Wars brand has high chances of becoming more popular there with each film, not so sure about other countries though.

 

[PacificBoy]

Yeah, the Chinese market has the most potential for growth with regard to Star Wars as a franchise. Rogue One will definitely draw plenty of interest, likely doing better than TFA and being the movie that ushers in Star Wars for the Chinese.

How much better depends on the movie's execution and story. If it's as inaccessible to the average Chinese moviegoer as TFA is, it'd be challenging.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Each LOTR film made more that the last one. I could see Star Wars 8 making more internationally but definitely not in North America.

I want to see if we can get a second 600m movie domestically. That would be pretty crazy. I also want to see if Rogue One can crack 400m.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$8.4 million in China Saturday taking it to $89.9 million.

TFA Friday domestic was $6.3 million for a total of $832.2 million. Deadline estimating TFA at $34.7 million for the four day weekend but that includes an $8 million projection for Monday which seems high to me. We'll see. If it hits that it will be at $860 million domestic by the start of Tuesday.

 

[metaphysician]

I think the variables though this time as opposed to the prequels, are going to be all the Star Wars side projects to be released. Rogue One and the Han Solo prequel film at least.

That could either contribute to keeping Star Wars as the relevant box office franchise like the MCU maybe or potentially over-saturate the demand for Star Wars?

Honestly, if TFA is any indicator, I'm not sure its realistically possible to saturate Star Wars demand. At least, presuming the spinoffs are good. Plus, the whole "no one has provided evidence for 'genre fatigue' even existing" thing.

 

[Octoberist]

It is sorta weird how the Chinese are reacting to this when Monster Hunt (maybe due to jingoism) and Transformers were such big critic proof hits.

I also think that Transformers because what it became after each sequel. So by part 4, it was an accepted franchise. So by Rogue One and Episode 8 they'll ease in a bit. Keep in mind that they probably see Stsr Wars as this weird franchise that barely got into their radar when the OT got released last summer.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Aaaaaand we're over the $1 billion hump overseas.

In its 5th offshore frame, Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens has become only the 5th film ever to cross $1B at the international box office. This is also the first time Disney has rounded that bend. The overseas take this weekend was $47.3M, lifting the cume to $1,012.6M. The global total is now $1,863.7M.

Notably this frame, Germany crossed the $100M mark with $100.1M to date. This is the 3rd global market to get to the milestone, behind the U.S. ($851M) and the UK ($168.6M).

In China, TFA will get to $100M within the next day or so, standing currently at $95.2M and overtaking France ($80M) as the space epic’s No. 3 offshore market. With an estimated $20M weekend, it continued to hold onto the No. 1 spot again in its 2nd frame despite the introduction of popular animated threequel Boonie Bears III and another local title, Royal Treasure.

Japan is the No. 5 overseas territory and has held No. 1 again in the 5th frame with a $73.5M cume.

http://deadline.com/2016/01/star-wa...-dollars-international-box-office-1201684720/

Domestic is looking around $31 million for the four day weekend.

 

[spiderman2]

Aaaaaand we're over the $1 billion hump overseas.

In its 5th offshore frame, Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens has become only the 5th film ever to cross $1B at the international box office. This is also the first time Disney has rounded that bend. The overseas take this weekend was $47.3M, lifting the cume to $1,012.6M. The global total is now $1,863.7M.

Notably this frame, Germany crossed the $100M mark with $100.1M to date. This is the 3rd global market to get to the milestone, behind the U.S. ($851M) and the UK ($168.6M).

In China, TFA will get to $100M within the next day or so, standing currently at $95.2M and overtaking France ($80M) as the space epic’s No. 3 offshore market. With an estimated $20M weekend, it continued to hold onto the No. 1 spot again in its 2nd frame despite the introduction of popular animated threequel Boonie Bears III and another local title, Royal Treasure.

Japan is the No. 5 overseas territory and has held No. 1 again in the 5th frame with a $73.5M cume.

http://deadline.com/2016/01/star-wa...-dollars-international-box-office-1201684720/

Domestic is looking around $31 million for the four day weekend.

Its to bad china is not doing while and with WOM being not that good there and with Kan fu panday coming out there next weekend it is going to have a big drop there again next weekend. Sounds like Japan is doing really while and sounds like out side of china it is doing pretty good ever where. I was really hoping it could do 1 billion USA like a week and a half ago but it dropped off much faster then I though it would so we may now be looking at more low 900m USA. How much longer before the movie gets to 900m USA? What about 2 billion WW? I was thinking the movie would be at about 1.9 billion a few days ago. Sounds like it is going to be close has those WW numbers is only about 37 million short and we still have tomorrows numbers so those could maybe end up more and also of course by the end of Monday it will be Tuesday in china. So number 5 all time OS. Should be at number 4 by the end of Monday. Needs about 150 more OS to get to number 3 can it do that? Sounds like the movie has around 50m maybe more USA left. OS is doing better even with out china so maybe it does 75m not counting china? Then maybe 35m more china? That would be 110m so about 40m short of number 3 OS number. So it may be close. If it does that 110m+ the at least 50m more USA that would be 160m more WW to added to the 1863.7 that it is at now. That would get it just over 2 billion at about 2.023 billion. I think after today or tomorrow I am not going to even look at the boxoffice for like a week maybe 2 weeks and by then the movie is going to be done just about. So I think in another week maybe 2 weeks we will just about now what the movie will finish at WW and USA wise.

 

[writer0327]

Did the announcement of the release date of the blu-ray have a negative effect on of the box office numbers? As soon as the date was announced, I felt people could just wait another 90 days instead of dropping another $10-$20 on a movie ticket.

 

[spiderman2]

Did the announcement of the release date of the blu-ray have a negative effect on of the box office numbers? As soon as the date was announced, I felt people could just wait another 90 days instead of dropping another $10-$20 on a movie ticket.

We don't have release date yet. The apirl 5th thing is just a rumor not conformed.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Frankly, I'll be amazed it they don't release it around or on May 4th.

 

[writer0327]

We don't have release date yet. The apirl 5th thing is just a rumor not conformed.

I know, but how many people looked that deep into it? Or how many people believe that's what it is and figured "hey, I'll just wait to see it again/for the first time". Blu-ray.com is usually pretty good about their release dates and the fact that it was reported widely by many sites probably makes people believe that's the real date, rumor or not.

 

[spiderman2]

Frankly, I'll be amazed it they don't release it around or on May 4th.

That would be kind of a cool day.

I know, but how many people looked that deep into it? Or how many people believe that's what it is and figured "hey, I'll just wait to see it again/for the first time". Blu-ray.com is usually pretty good about their release dates and the fact that it was reported widely by many sites probably makes people believe that's the real date, rumor or not.

While I don't believe the apirl 5th date because that would only be about 3 and a half months from theater to video and most movies come out about 4-5 months after they come out to theaters and the movie may be doing good enough to where they want to keep it in theaters longer.

 

[writer0327]

That would be kind of a cool day.



While I don't believe the apirl 5th date because that would only be about 3 and a half months from theater to video and most movies come out about 4-5 months after they come out to theaters and the movie may be doing good enough to where they want to keep it in theaters longer.

No disagreement there, but I think that date being announced hampered the box office somewhat. I would have wished that the date, rumored or real, was announced sometime in late January.

 

[spiderman2]

No disagreement there, but I think that date being announced hampered the box office somewhat. I would have wished that the date, rumored or real, was announced sometime in late January.

Yeah I didn't think about that before you brought that up but yeah maybe it did cost the movie a little bit but like how much? Maybe 50m who knows.

 

[spiderman2]

When did that apirl 5th date come up any way?

 

[Marvolo]

When did that apirl 5th date come up any way?

About the time the film came out. First rumor said April 26 then it became April 5.

That would be kind of a cool day.

While I don't believe the apirl 5th date because that would only be about 3 and a half months from theater to video and most movies come out about 4-5 months after they come out to theaters and the movie may be doing good enough to where they want to keep it in theaters longer.

Studios have been shortening the window between theatrical and home video releases. Most major Hollywood movies get a Digital HD release in 3 months or less with the home video release following in short time. For example Martian came out on Digital HD on December 22 which was less than 3 months and the blu-ray release was January 12. And Spectre is coming out on Blu-ray February 9 which is only 3 months after the U.S. theatrical release date.

On another note, pisses me off that a stupid "Kevin Hart shouts obnoxiously" film knocked TFA out of the top box office spot.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

No the rumored Blu Ray announcement did not hamper the box office numbers. Nothing is hampering the box office numbers. The fact is that the film was well received and does have good word of mouth and is uber successful beyond words but it's legs were never what certain people thought they were.

It should get over a 3.6 multiplier. With how Front loaded films can get, any huge opener with a 2.8 and above is doing great let alone going over the 3.5 mark. The Avatar comparisons, which are useful when you knew what to compare, gave people a warped sense of TFA's legs. The legs are great for a film that had a record opening, many are just mistaken on what great legs are when it comes to record or near record openings.

 

[spiderman2]

About the time the film came out. First rumor said April 26 then it became April 5.



Studios have been shortening the window between theatrical and home video releases. Most major Hollywood movies get a Digital HD release in 3 months or less with the home video release following in short time. For example Martian came out on Digital HD on December 22 which was less than 3 months and the blu-ray release was January 12. And Spectre is coming out on Blu-ray February 9 which is only 3 months after the U.S. theatrical release date.

On another note, pisses me off that a stupid "Kevin Hart shouts obnoxiously" film knocked TFA out of the top box office spot.

Really I thought the movie had been out for like 2 weeks when that rumor started. While I remember it used to take like a year for movies to go from theater to DVD and now it fells like it is more like 4-5 months. Amazing spider man 2 was the first movie I had ever heard of before coming out less then 4 months from theater to dvd/bluray but it also didn't do that great like this movie. Another then that I had never heard of a movie coming out in less then 4 months. I think that may be starting to change though has the newest bond is only about 3 months and I think there are a few other more new movies that are doing something like that including those you said. I wonder if that is the fastest they will ever do that because if it gets to much faster then that people may just stop going to the movies and want for the movie to come out on video. I already hear people say with movies I will just want for Netflix or redbox it ect.

While about the keven hart movie it sounds like star wars is going to be 3erd this weekend so even if that movie didn't make star wars not number one this weekend the Ledeornod movie would have made it not number one any way.

 

[flickchick85]

No the rumored Blu Ray announcement did not hamper the box office numbers. Nothing is hampering the box office numbers. The fact is that the film was well received and does have good word of mouth and is uber successful beyond words but it's legs were never what certain people thought they were.

It should get over a 3.6 multiplier. With how Front loaded films can get, any huge opener with a 2.8 and above is doing great let alone going over the 3.5 mark. The Avatar comparisons, which are useful when you knew what to compare, gave people a warped sense of TFA's legs. The legs are great for a film that had a record opening, many are just mistaken on what great legs are when it comes to record or near record openings.

Yeah, a 3.6x multiplier is great for any movie, ESPECIALLY for a movie with such a massive opening. Anyone disappointed with that must have had some pretty unrealistic expectations to begin with.

 

[spiderman2]

No the rumored Blu Ray announcement did not hamper the box office numbers. Nothing is hampering the box office numbers. The fact is that the film was well received and does have good word of mouth and is uber successful beyond words but it's legs were never what certain people thought they were.

It should get over a 3.6 multiplier. With how Front loaded films can get, any huge opener with a 2.8 and above is doing great let alone going over the 3.5 mark. The Avatar comparisons, which are useful when you knew what to compare, gave people a warped sense of TFA's legs. The legs are great for a film that had a record opening, many are just mistaken on what great legs are when it comes to record or near record openings.

While I don't think people thought it was going to have a avatar multiplier but if you go back to about a week or 2 ago it looked like the movie was going to have more like a 4.0 multiplier and like it was going to for sure catch titanic WW now it looks like it may not catch titanic. About 1 to 2 weeks ago it looked like the movie had a slight changes to get up to 1 billion USA and was most likely going to end at high 900's. Now it looks like it is going to be low 900's and it looked like the movie was going to end up WW at like 2.4-2.5 billion. Now that is looking more like 2.-2.1 maybe 2.2.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

While I don't think people thought it was going to have a avatar multiplier but if you go back to about a week or 2 ago it looked like the movie was going to have more like a 4.0 multiplier and like it was going to for sure catch titanic WW now it looks like it may not catch titanic. About 1 to 2 weeks ago it looked like the movie had a slight changes to get up to 1 billion USA and was most likely going to end at high 900's. Now it looks like it is going to be low 900's and it looked like the movie was going to end up WW at like 2.4-2.5 billion. Now that is looking more like 2.-2.1 maybe 2.2.

So what? It wouldn't be the first time people's projections were wrong and it won't be the last.