The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[InCali]

I'm thinking the first run numbers are more important. Tells you more about the initial feeling of the GA and how big of an event the film was/is.

The logic appeals to me, but it's really not possible to compare movies that are basically 20 years apart so we just go with BO #s or tickets sold.

Prices have risen (which may hurt or help BO #s)
The growth of the international market
Technological advances
The way studios make money after the theater run is over has changed
Etc.

EDIT: It's even hard to compare movies that are 8-10 years apart in time, but I think it's fair to say that TFA was domestically more popular than Avatar. Internationally is another story.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

Hoping Disney does a limited rerelease of A New Hope next May for the 40th anniversary of its initial 1977 release. No reason not to since they moved Episode VIII to December. They don't have any SW releases in May now. They could even put an Episode VIII teaser in front of it...

Sounds good to me.

 

[NHawk19]

I'm not sure about "new-age", but it was in on the ground floor of 3D and with a technology that hadn't been used before. At the time, it was clearly the best 3D had done. Special effects wise I can't remember anything that really came close to it. While, later on, I think "Hugo" made better use of 3D (and James Cameron agrees with me), Avatar was clearly the trend setter and in the vanguard of 3D.

Avatar 2 will do very well. Very, very well if it's really good, but I don't see it touching Avatar's numbers here in the US/Canada or overseas. We'll see if it ever actually gets released.....

That's probably what I was thinking of. Seem to remember it grew legs because people wanted to see the new technology, and 3D visuals.

3D is now pretty common place so I'm sure they'll have to come up with some other gimmick to get a movie back to that level.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

TFA up to $883.3 million after pulling in another $1.3 million on Wednesday. It probably made about the same yesterday so it heads into the weekend around $884.6. Most projections expect it to make around $10 million over the weekend, which would put it on track to cross $900 million late next week or early next weekend.

It's losing a lot of theaters this weekend, dropping 829 to 2,556. It's still at my local Cinemark but is down to just four showings a day this weekend, two regular and two 3D.

 

[InCali]

TFA up to $883.3 million after pulling in another $1.3 million on Wednesday. It probably made about the same yesterday so it heads into the weekend around $884.6. Most projections expect it to make around $10 million over the weekend, which would put it on track to cross $900 million late next week or early next weekend.

It's losing a lot of theaters this weekend, dropping 829 to 2,556. It's still at my local Cinemark but is down to just four showings a day this weekend, two regular and two 3D.

It will be interesting to see how it runs through Feb.

 

[Erzengel]

Wonder if it will hit $2B WW or $900M domestically first.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I think $900 million first but it will be close.

 

[InCali]

Wonder if it will hit $2B WW or $900M domestically first.

Hmmmmm.......is it still playing at all in China? I think it's going to be really, really close. We may never know because I don't think we get the daily updates as regularly OS as we do DOM. I don't think we've gotten an OS update since last Saturday (on BOM anyway)? With a 40/60 DOM/OS split, it looks like it might be almost a dead heat to me.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I think this is its final weekend in China, meaning it has few screens left so its take there won't be much.

Per boxoffice.com, TFA early estimate for the weekend is $10.4 million, putting it just over $895 million domestic. WW estimate is $1.955 million.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

900 m should happen before the superbowl.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's so crazy to see any film do 900 million domestically. Just eye poppingly massive numbers.

 

[spiderman2]

I think this is its final weekend in China, meaning it has few screens left so its take there won't be much.

Per boxoffice.com, TFA early estimate for the weekend is $10.4 million, putting it just over $895 million domestic. WW estimate is $1.955 million.

I thought it was like 15 million? Was that last weekend?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yeah that was last weekend.

 

[spiderman2]

Oh ok

 

[Wildcard]

It's so crazy to see any film do 900 million domestically. Just eye poppingly massive numbers.

Indeed. And along with that it feels weird yet strangely refreshing to have been part of such a historic feat. Absolutely astounding.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Updated projections: $10.7 million for the weekend and $895.4 domestic total. It might get over the hump even before Friday in that case.

WW now at $1.983 billion. It will almost certainly top $2 billion next weekend.

I was wrong about China, it has one more week to go. Won't get much more but every little bit helps!

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Indeed. And along with that it feels weird yet strangely refreshing to have been part of such a historic feat. Absolutely astounding.

I was very happy to support the film.

 

[Marvin]

It's so crazy to see any film do 900 million domestically. Just eye poppingly massive numbers.

Indeed. Considering that just about any movie would happily cop that globally. I mean I think hunger games with all it's success consistently never got there globally. Really something.
That being said, I haven't been to the theater since star wars. There is something to be said for this winter season and what it allows for legs. More studios with mega tentpoles should clue into this, seems Disney finally has going forward.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Indeed. Considering that just about any movie would happily cop that globally. I mean I think hunger games with all it's success consistently never got there globally. Really something.
That being said, I haven't been to the theater since star wars. There is something to be said for this winter season and what it allows for legs. More studios with mega tentpoles should clue into this, seems Disney finally has going forward.

Correct me if I am wrong, but don't the studios get a much larger percentage of the first weekend or two of a film? Perhaps that is why most are still reluctant? Also, I'd say the shift has been in for a while now. The last few Holiday seasons have been packed outside of this one. No one wanted to play with Star Wars.

 

[Marvin]

Correct me if I am wrong, but don't the studios get a much larger percentage of the first weekend or two of a film? Perhaps that is why most are still reluctant? Also, I'd say the shift has been in for a while now. The last few Holiday seasons have been packed outside of this one. No one wanted to play with Star Wars.

Every christmas has 'something'. One or two medium things on top of that(sherlock etc).
But the bigger Avengers/Spiderman/TDK like things not so much, my point is maybe it should have been. TDKR especially.
LOTR was really the only non cameron thing I recall playing the winter game and it probably enjoyed the hell out of it.
It's such a 'scary' thing for studios that it wasn't until this long after the fact that disney realized that they shouldn't move SW8 thing back to may.

Studios being afraid of dates that have bad history's only to learn that the reason for the bad history is because of the studios themselves are not putting stuff in those spots due to...self confirming prophecy. August and April were the other ones where this type thinking used to apply and for this type of reason. Then film after film breaks box office records for those months and they clue in.

What's more in the summer it's every week or two and another big one pops up. Christmas into spring has never been that, regardless of starwars making people move or not.

And yes you are right about the percentage thing. There are alot of things over looked in these discussions. Like how little money is actually yielded from china theaters. Doesn't stop the fun though. Especially when you think about what that would imply about a big opening vs legs.

 

[Erzengel]

Correct me if I am wrong, but don't the studios get a much larger percentage of the first weekend or two of a film? Perhaps that is why most are still reluctant? Also, I'd say the shift has been in for a while now. The last few Holiday seasons have been packed outside of this one. No one wanted to play with Star Wars.

Doing the math of the last few blockbusters.

They make about half their gross in the first 8-9 days and then 2/3 within the first 3 weeks.

Based on Star Wars, I thought they'd make at least $840 based after it's first 9 days. Obviously it's Star Wars so it was a little better than that.

 

[InCali]

Updated projections: $10.7 million for the weekend and $895.4 domestic total. It might get over the hump even before Friday in that case.

WW now at $1.983 billion. It will almost certainly top $2 billion next weekend.

I was wrong about China, it has one more week to go. Won't get much more but every little bit helps!

Yeah. I thought that OS number of 1.955B needed to be updated. Still, I think you're right. It will probably go over 900M before 2B, but, again, the OS numbers seem to only get updated sporadically and I can never tell for sure what days those numbers cover.

 

[InCali]

Doing the math of the last few blockbusters.

They make about half their gross in the first 8-9 days and then 2/3 within the first 3 weeks.

Based on Star Wars, I thought they'd make at least $840 based after it's first 9 days. Obviously it's Star Wars so it was a little better than that.

Part of it also could be that the winter holds for the first 3 weeks (through Jan 7) tend to be better than summer releases.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

Kind of shocked it still hasn't reached 2 bil yet.

 

[Wildcard]

I think that's really only because of the snowstorm that occurred. Had that not happened & those people who were prevented had been able to get to a theater that weekend, it'd have probably crossed that milestone by now.