The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[spiderman2]

Kind of shocked it still hasn't reached 2 bil yet.

I kind of am to but also about 3 weeks ago I thought it was a for sure thing that it was going to catch titanic and now that looks kind of slim considering it still needs around 200 million and it has almost nothing left in china and may not have to much left ever where else to.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Weekend actual comes in at $11.1 million, which is only like a 20% drop from last weekend. That's an insane hold. Good evidence IMO that last week's snowstorm on the east coast really did tamp down sales considerably.

$895.76 million domestic now, so just $4.24 million to go.

 

[InCali]

Weekend actual comes in at $11.1 million, which is only like a 20% drop from last weekend. That's an insane hold. Good evidence IMO that last week's snowstorm on the east coast really did tamp down sales considerably.

$895.76 million domestic now, so just $4.24 million to go.

Also, as I've noted, well liked movies tend to have smaller drops a month or so after their release. To give a recent example, we saw it with Ant-Man also.

 

[InCali]

Weekend actual comes in at $11.1 million, which is only like a 20% drop from last weekend. That's an insane hold. Good evidence IMO that last week's snowstorm on the east coast really did tamp down sales considerably.

$895.76 million domestic now, so just $4.24 million to go.

And do we know whether the OS totals include the last weekend? I'm suspecting that they don't. Those are really hard to keep tabs on.

 

[Iceman]

Haven't checked the total in a while. Nearly at $900m dom which will be lovely to get past!

 

[Erzengel]

And do we know whether the OS totals include the last weekend? I'm suspecting that they don't. Those are really hard to keep tabs on.

Some of the foreign box office totals have been updated to 1/31.

So based on that, I think that this will hit $900 domestic by Friday before it hits, $2 B WW.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yah, the OS numbers are in.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/news/2016-...dreamworks-criticized-over-release-date-snafu

$12.6 million last weekend to take it to $1.98356 million. Looks to be holding better domestically now vs. OS, which is a switch from earlier.

 

[InCali]

Yah, the OS numbers are in.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/news/2016-...dreamworks-criticized-over-release-date-snafu

$12.6 million last weekend to take it to $1.98356 million. Looks to be holding better domestically now vs. OS, which is a switch from earlier.

Yup. I, to the best of the info that was available, came to the same conclusion. In retrospect, which isn't fair, it sort of makes sense. SW has been part of ground zero mythology for decades.....that's not a very coherent rant.....even for me....but now it all makes sense...

 

[Bruce Malone]

Any chance of TFA overtaking FF7's spot at #3 in foreign receipts? FF7 grossed $1,163 billion to the current $1,087.8 billion that TFA sits at.

 

[WC Avengers]

Any chance of TFA overtaking FF7's spot at #3 in foreign receipts? FF7 grossed $1,163 billion to the current $1,087.8 billion that TFA sits at.

that might be a little tough. It is late in game

 

[spiderman2]

Weekend actual comes in at $11.1 million, which is only like a 20% drop from last weekend. That's an insane hold. Good evidence IMO that last week's snowstorm on the east coast really did tamp down sales considerably.

$895.76 million domestic now, so just $4.24 million to go.

Nice did abt a million more then we thought it would. So maybe 900m by wesday?

 

[spiderman2]

Any chance of TFA overtaking FF7's spot at #3 in foreign receipts? FF7 grossed $1,163 billion to the current $1,087.8 billion that TFA sits at.

While that means it would need to make about another 76 million there. Sounds like it may have around 50 million more USA left and I think OS is still making a little more ever day then USA so maybe.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Nice did abt a million more then we thought it would. So maybe 900m by wesday?

Probably Thursday at the earliest. Have to see how the weekday holds are.

 

[spiderman2]

Starting to think the movie is going to end up at low 900 million USA and just over 2 billion WW. At one point in time I thought it was going to be more like high 900m or maybe even a billion USA and WW of like 2.2-2.4 billion but then a few weeks ago it slowed down more then I thought and also yesterday was its first below 1 million day.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...-a-day-for-first-time-on-day-46/#600909654712

 

[Erzengel]

So at about $899 by Thursday, so 50 days for 900 million.

 

[Tilapia]

They needed a record breaker in China; they got the cold shoulder. It happens. Can't win every battle. Onto Episode 8. With any luck, 2 billion may be back in the cards although it will need to pick up some major steam in Asia. Asking a lot, even if Rogue One is a hit.

Also, is Han Solo confirmed for 2018?

 

[Lord]

Episode IV became #1 of all time once it premiered, Episode one became #2, now Episode VII has become #3. At this rate, Episode X will probably be #4.

Regarding China, Rogue One has some chinese stars, and while i doubt it will be enough for the brand to reach Furious 7 and Transformers 4 heights there, it might give it enough of a boost to stand alongside Avengers 2. It will be interesting to see how much the market changes, right now Star Wars is the most powerful of all film franchises (unless Avatar 2 blows up like it's predecessor, which it probably will in China), but it's not so internationaly yet. That said, Furious 7 was a unique case, and while the Fast & Furious films will probably still make more than a Billion easily, they probably won't do as much as the 7th film did.

Anyone thinks 2 Billion for Episode VII is still a possibility? It only has to make around 20 million more in order to reach that number.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It is making it to 2bil.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

So at about $899 by Thursday, so 50 days for 900 million.

Looks like you're dead on. TFA added another $927k yesterday, taking it to $897.4 million. Based on M/T I'd say W/Th will total about $1.6 million. Friday's the day!

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Lionsgate: Mockingjay 2 underperformed because Star Wars.

http://io9.gizmodo.com/lionsgate-thinks-terrorists-and-star-wars-stole-their-h-1757350768

lol

($899.07 million after yesterday, so happy $900 million day everyone!)

 

[Lord]

If they wanted Hunger Games to end in a bang, then they shouldn't have spli the final book, it made the entire think feel less of an event and spoiled the hype that Catching Fire had built.

 

[Erzengel]

It has to do with quality.

The reviews for Mockingjay Part 1 and 2 dipped.

Personally, I've watched 3 of them. Part 2 is on my netflix but it's like required summer reading. I'm not invested in any of the characters at all.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I saw some article on Hitfix about TFA not beating avatar. It is so odd to me that there still seem to be some articles who are covertly acting like TFA is some sort of under performer because it didn't outcross Avatar overseas. Any film would be lucky to make as much money as TFA, any film. Most of the time the studios bring these sorts of articles on themselves by having outrageous goals though.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I think it was just that huge opening ramped up expectations. But yeah, any attempt to paint $900 million as underperforming is ludicrous.

Deadline says that tomorrow will be $2 billion WW day here:

http://deadline.com/2016/02/star-wars-the-force-awakens-box-office-900m-1201696190/

Also this tidbit, emphasis added:

Force Awakens is still going so strong that Disney isn’t contemplating its end game at the B.O., meaning a “see it for the last time on the big screen” campaign. At the rate it is going, insiders figure a final B.O. for Force Awakens of $950M before any kind of re-release. Universal stopped reporting on Jurassic World in mid-November, 23 weeks after its June 12 opening.

So just maybe it still has a shot...

 

[Lord]

If they can pull a successful re-release, Force Awakens might just get a chance at surpassing Titanic. This is a case where them releasing a new film once a year might limit how much TFA makes at the end of the day.