Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Kryptonian Warrior]

So out of curiosity, has anyone's guess adjusted for better or worse since the latest trailer?

 

[Tyrone Parker]

So out of curiosity, has anyone's guess adjusted for better or worse since the latest trailer?

Better.

 

[moviefreak]

Jon Peters' only task in MOS is getting a lotsa:

 

[Ita-KalEl]

It will do less than Iron Man 3, but with better legs and better home entertainment revenues.
I've seen IM3 and I have to say that it is still a more than decent movie, but it lost almost all its incredible appeal among geeks, nerds and comicbooks fans.
I can predict a +60% drop for the second weekend.

 

[Liam_H]

MOS will not under perform. Its going to shut up everyone that is giving these lowball predictions.

What's your domestic total?

 

[moviefreak]

IIRC, I had predicted about 400m domestic and 800m in total more than year ago. That was before I was fully aware of Star Trek ID, After Earth & World War Z being clustered within weeks around MOS.

I'll be happy if MOS breaks 300m domestic, any thing extra will be gravy on top.

 

[G.Godfrey]

IIRC, I had predicted about 400m domestic and 800m in total more than year ago. That was before I was fully aware of Star Trek ID, After Earth & World War Z being clustered within weeks around MOS.

MOS opens a month after STID (well, minus 3 days) so I think that's a safe distance. After Earth already got the memo so Will and his boy ran from MOS and there is now a 2 week space between them. Not that AE will be a box office hit of course. And WWZ has flop written all over it. The only thing standing in MOS's way is Monsters University opening a week after. But as history has shown, two big films can easily co-exist with one another and make $$$. Aside from MU, MOS pretty much has a nice 2 weeks before and after and if they are really hiding all the good bits than the WOM will be big and ensure a hit. Can't see any scenario in which this doesn't hit 300 million domestic, other than the film turning out to be a stinker or all the talk of loads of epic action being exaggeration thrown out to spread hype among fans.

 

[moviefreak]

MOS opens a month after STID (well, minus 3 days) so I think that's a safe distance. After Earth already got the memo so Will and his boy ran from MOS and there is now a 2 week space between them. Not that AE will be a box office hit of course. And WWZ has flop written all over it. The only thing standing in MOS's way is Monsters University opening a week after. But as history has shown, two big films can easily co-exist with one another and make $$$. Aside from MU, MOS pretty much has a nice 2 weeks before and after and if they are really hiding all the good bits than the WOM will be big and ensure a hit. Can't see any scenario in which this doesn't hit 300 million domestic, other than the film turning out to be a stinker or all the talk of loads of epic action being exaggeration thrown out to spread hype among fans.

Oh I'm aware of the distance between AE and MOS, the rumours about World War Z being a stinker and about Monster Uni.

But it is hard to predict the domestic number for film like MOS mainly because you have people throwing money at films like Fast & Furious, Transformer, Twilight -all of which I'm happy to say that I have never seen lol.

 

[GreenKToo]

If mos is as good as we all hope it is, I can see it maybe opening lower than expected but having staying power with very small drops. I also wouldnt be surprised if it opens huge.
its just so hard to predict what this film will do. will the public take to it? we'll see, won't we.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

So out of curiosity, has anyone's guess adjusted for better or worse since the latest trailer?

From $300M to $325M.

 

[Rowsdower!]

So out of curiosity, has anyone's guess adjusted for better or worse since the latest trailer?

Yes.

$4.5 billion.

Opening weekend.

Write that down.

 

[DarthAlani]

Films moving away from MOS has confirmed that studios are scared of MOS.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Sony all but admitted After Earth is crap.

 

[Mysteryman]

Yes.

$4.5 billion.

Opening weekend.

Write that down.

Unlikely, but , fun to imagine.

 

[Mysteryman]

If mos is as good as we all hope it is, I can see it maybe opening lower than expected but having staying power with very small drops. I also wouldnt be surprised if it opens huge.
its just so hard to predict what this film will do. will the public take to it? we'll see, won't we.

I am in complete agreement with you
Very hard to tell either way at this point .

 

[Mysteryman]

Films moving away from MOS has confirmed that studios are scared of MOS.

Another movie besides AE moved away from MOS?
Which One?

 

[Rowsdower!]

Sony all but admitted After Earth is crap.

Really? Ugh. My girl is so excited for that movie and I know she's going to drag me to it.

 

[Mysteryman]

I think Jamie means Sony admitted it by moving AE.
I dont think anybody from Sony has actually said anything .

 

[TheNextNolan22]

So out of curiosity, has anyone's guess adjusted for better or worse since the latest trailer?

Much better.

 

[fake]

The thing that will help MoS the most now is distance from a big release. The biggest high-profile release before MoS is Fast 6 which is 3 weeks before and is a well known frontloaded franchise. So, 3 weeks later it won't be much of competition.

The middle 3 weeks look like they are filled with smaller movies or what look to be outright stinkers (The Internship). MoS can benefit from all of this by running an aggressive marketing campaign during those 3 weeks making the release the mid-summer event promoting a "must-see" factor. If they can do that, a 100+million opening should be easily on the cards, and it can make a mid-June opening viable again.

 

[DarthAlani]

Another movie besides AE moved away from MOS?
Which One?

This is the end moved to a Wednesday opening instead of Friday. Still it should do all right as counter-programming.

 

[Excel]

Saw this on the Box Office forums.

First official tracking number for "Man of Steel". Tracking is starting off strong with >85% "Aware and Planning on watching" among all demos except women 20-35 where it is 83%

Spoiler

This is actually done through amateur means, so the #s are legitimate but just not professional. As someone already mentioned, "first choice" and in particular "definite interest" are the primary gauges for opening weekend performance. That said, the #s mentioned there are all look right in line with the general expectations for the opening weekends.

Man of Steel's opening weekend is going to be difficult to truly pin down specifically simply because it isn't a sequel and it is - by far - the highest profile live action opening in June in 9 years. But everything is pointing to break out, to the higher end of whatever the range is. That is pretty much anywhere from 80 million to 150 million - huge range, but expect it north of the 120m mark.

 

[Moridin]

MOS will not under perform. Its going to shut up everyone that is giving these lowball predictions.

In fact its is Yahoo movie users #1 most anticipated movie of the summer by a wide margin. Superman is just so much more interesting with his alien origins than some rich guy that flys around in armor.

Dude, just relax. You sound like you're trying to convince yourself more than anyone else.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Underperforming is making less than Iron Man 3?

 

[Mysteryman]

Underperforming is making less than Iron Man 3?

That is a good point because every film is going to make less than Iron Man 3.
Are they all underperformers?