Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Kryptonian Titan]

Underperforming is making less than Iron Man 3?

LOL. Good question.t:

 

[Excel]

Underperforming is making less than Iron Man 3?

Highly, highly doubt it will outgross Iron Man 3. IM3 is heading for 400m ish domestic and 700mish overseas. The 1 billion mark would be borderlne outrageous for MAN OF STEEL considering it's a true blue franchise starter.

I will say...IF Man Of Steel outgrosses Iron Man 3, it would be an all time story. What is the highest grossing non sequel ever released in summer? 2002s Spider-man, with 403 million (adjusts to just over 500 million). The big time franchise starters of recent summers have been Transformers (368 million inflated), Iron man (352 million inflated), and Star Trek (274 million inflated). None of those had 3D as MOS does, so adD 15%ish to see what it would have made with 3D. That would put them more like 420, 402, and 315 million. Falling anywhere in between those films would make man of a steel a huge break out. If it tops them, it would be one of the biggest box office break outs of the decade, to be sure.

I will say, if the tracking that most sources are indicating is true (not just the 125 above, but Sony moving 'After Earth' was based no preliminary tracking suggests a huge opening), Mos is going to open huge. Lets just guess 140 million, a huge break out smash.

Now, considering it isn't a sequel, it should not be quite as front loaded, rather it should have a decent multiplier. Now, if reports that it is excellent are true, on top of being less front loaded than most blockbusters, lets say it does 3.3 multiplier.

140x3.3 = 462 million. Certified mega smash.

I meant to do a true blue box office analysis for this. think ill do it now.

 

[Excel]

General Demand
Superman Returns performance is a testament to the fact that Superman is popular with filmgoers. SR inflates to 245 million domestically, despite the vintage, gloomy, actionless marketing, despite not having the inflated 3D ticket prices Man Of Steel will have & of having pirates of the Caribbean 2 utterly decimate right after release. I, personally, consider Superman Return s the complete floor for a Superman films box office potential. Average marketing, decent film, massive competition. It is hard to imagine a faithful Superman film being less interesting than SR. So, we will examine what SR inflates to now to determine said ‘floor’.

SR had a funky opening. It opened on a Wednesday, spreading it’s opening out a bit. Plus, it’s first Monday and Tuesday were holidays, even further spreading out it. It achieved #s of 52.5m opening weekend (Fri-Sun), 84.5m Wed – Fri, and 106m the first 7 days. To properly apply this to MAN OF STEEL, we need to go further in our analysis and apply the same opening weekend circumstances MAN OF STEEL will experience and go further. I would estimate that, had SR opened on a Friday on a normal weekend, those numbers indicate an opening weekend in the 76-78 million range in 2006 dollars. In 2013 dollars, that is 93-96 million. Now, lets add in 3D inflation. This is not increasing the # of tickets sold – it is the same # of tickets estimated to have been sold in 2006, we are just increasing the average ticket price as 3D tickets account for a large percentage of all tickets sold & are more expensive. Let’s add 15% overall (a conservative estimate), using the 3D ticket ratio which says 3D tickers are roughly 40% more expensive and account for roughly 35-40% of all tickets sold. 93 – 96 million + 15% would put it’s opening range around 107 – 110m.

In other words, IF Superman Returns opened in 2013, on a normal Friday, was in 3 –D, AND sold the EXACT SAME number of tickets it would have sold in 2006, it would open in the 107 – 110 million ball park. That is with average marketing, decent reviews, and strong competition (DEVIL WEARS PRADA opens in the mid 30s).

As a result, lets consider the 107 – 110 million range the FLOOR for a Superman film on opening weekend. The only thing SR had going for it which MOS does not is the “novelty factor’ – SR was the first supes film in near 20 years while MOS only has 7 years. Of course, SR was so forgettable that I think this makes it irrelevant. MOS could not look any more different than SR either way.

Conclusion: general demand for a Superman film is quite high, as evidenced by the floor for a Superman films opening weekend is very high by most standards. If 1100m is the floor, the ceiling is clearly very high. Achieving that ceiling requires excellent marketing, an excellent film, and a great release date. Even though everybody says he is “old fashioned” and “boring”, SR sold a lot of tickets for its context on opening weekend.

Overall demand: 8/10, about as high a non sequel & non original adaption (i.e. 1989s BATMAN, 2002S SPIDERMAN), can get.

Production
Though Cavill is not a star, he is a stud, and his face makes the film instantly more appealing to women. Russell Crowe is the biggest star to join an entry level superhero film since Jack Nicholson. Though Shannon brings little to the table, Costner, Lane, Fishbourne, and Adams in particular are all more than recognizable to most film goers and instantly add credibility to this concept. Though none are certified mega draws, they INCREASE the credibility behind the brand ‘Superman’, which is the real draw. Superman is such a famous character with such potential that his mass appeal makes one of those guys everyone WANTS to like, but it just isn’t there yet because the potential has never been fulfilled, filmwise. Adding such quality actors AND getting Nolans name attached – the hottest name in Hollywood – is a big, big deal.

The mid June release date DEF. COULD BE BETTER – not sure when it hasn’t switched with Pacific Rim. That said, the lack of competition surrounding it at this point (only remotely threatening film within a week of release is MONSTERS UNIVERSITY), it isn’t too large of a concern at this point. SR – opening a week before the biggest opener ever at the time – is a great example of a TERRIBLE release date.

As far as the film itself, it looks modern, large scale, serious, and yet still a bit popcorny. It doesn’t look vintage of morose ala SR. It also looks action packed, with sci fi alien fighting, tornados, large scale city destruction, and above all, hand to hand super fight combat on display. Cavill has a very good looking face and ripped body, Adams is quite pretty, Crowe is full on Gladiator mode, and Snyder is a money shot king – the film is EXTREMELY marketable.

So, I guess give Production 9.5/10. Very credible cast and crew, extremely marketable film, only loses the .5 because the release date could be better.

Marketing:
It is my opinion that Man of steel trio of trailers is the best I have followed for a non sequel. One must understand that trailers for sequels, which feature established characters, are very different than non sequel trailers and as a result are difficult to compare. Man Of Steel’s trailers are right on level with SPIDER-MAN (2002) and TRANSFORMERS (2007), which have some of the best ever made. Prior to the trailers, folks didn’t hate the character, but it would take great trailers make the interest go from “somewhat there” to “definite”. The trailers have been every measure been nothing short of incredible, earning praise everywhere one could look, both for trailer editing and footage in general. They have aired with THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, THE HOBBIT, and IRON MAN 3 – 3 of the biggest films in the past 12 months. They will air with GATSBY and HANGOVER 3 – 2 more solid hits. By film trailer standards, they have a TON of views on youtube.

These ‘all time great’ trailers have gotten about as much exposure as one could wish. The tv spot campaign is just getting going, but the trailers have been well edited thus far. I see little no reason to expect something other than an enormous and extremely effective tv spot campaign. The film is also boosting several high profile tie ins, with Carls Jr, Kelloggs, Twizzlers, and Wal Mart all being involved with I am sure more to come.

Marketing wise, Man Of Steel has a very strong case best marketing of the summer. It isn’t IRON MAN 3, where the name alone assure 150m+ opening weekend. I am judging marketing by how effective it is at maximizing a films potential.

Marketing: 9.5/10. Posters are not that great, though there very unimportant.

Reviews
Unknown, but everything points to excellent. Lets assume they’re good.

Expectations
Man Of Steel opens late on Thursday, June 13th riding a wave of ‘overwhelming in quantity and extremely effective in quality’ marketing to glowing reviews. Everyone knows MOS will be a hit, the question is ‘how big’? All timer or just decent break out?

MIDNIGHT AND SNEAK PREVIEW GROSS
Transformers 2 (17 million) is the only big time action release which even close to MOS mid June date. School is still in session in many places, though college is out. So, while midnight potential simply is not at the 30-40 million ceiling it is in July, it is not at the 15-18 million cap it is in May. That said, MOS isn’t a sequel. Sequels experience the highest midnight numbers. I will say that between sneaks and midnight screenings, MOS should seek about 80% of the tickets Transformers 2 did. MOS will have more showings and they’re more popular now than they were then. That is ABOUT 16 million. Now, we add in 3D.

Look for sneak peaks and midnights for MAN OF STEEL to total in $22 million range. Thanks to TWITTER, word of mouth spreads rapidly that the film is awesome, and it looks likely to maximize it’s Friday potential.

POST MIDNIGHT FRIDAY GROSS
TOY STORY 3, opening on the same time 3 years ago, achieved 37 million on Friday. With inflation, and 3D added in, the same $ of tickets $45 million in today’s dollars. Though TS3 was a nostalgic sequel, it did not have as broad appeal as MAN OF STEEL. Plus, it was the type of film which truly lacked the ‘rush out’ factor, as evidenced by it’s extremely strong legs. I will say MAN OF STEELS grosses another $46 million during the day Friday – a little less than the # of tickets TOY STORY 3 sold.

Combined, MAN OF STEEL achieved an opening day $68 million, a towering amount given the word of mouth spreading like wildfire.

SATURDAY GROSS
Word of mouth is great, and the film will play well with families. Plus, there is little family competition. As a result, expect a slight drop from the 46 million yesterday, down to 42 million.

Man of Steel has a running 2 day total of $110 million.

SUNDAY GROSS
This Sunday is Fathers Day – a strong day the films. Another small drop is in store, this time down to $35 million.

TOTAL OPENING WEEKEND
Man of Steel opens to a large $145 million, shattering the June opening weekend record and making WB mess their pants around the globe. Everybody in the country is now aware that MAN OF STEEL is the break out of the summer, and with no big films remaining to garner mass excitement, everyone begins making plans to see it (or see it again).

1ST MON - Thursday
MOS runs right on path with TOY STORY (despite opening much larger than), securing 60 million through weekdays. The break down is 17, 16, 14, 13. Man of Steel has achieved an opening week of $205 million. In just 7 days, it has outgrossed SUPERMAN RETURNS entire run.

2nd WEEKEND
Monsters U hits, opening in the mid 70s, knocking Superman off from #1 and eating into the kids audience. MAN OF STEEL drops 56% in it’s second week. That totals it at 63 million. MAN OF STEELS 10 day total stands at $268 million.

2ND WEEKDAYS
As word of mouth keeps kicking in, more schools are let out and the drops stabilize, Man of Steels 2nd week sees a drop of 41% from the previous week, totaling 36 million.

3rd WEEKEND
MAN OF STEEL faces direct competition from WHITE HOUSE DOWN, which performs well but not amazingly. MOS drops 45% that weekend, down to 34 million. MAN OF STEELS 17 day total is 338 million dollars.

3rd WEEK DAYS
This is July 4th week. More films are competition, with DESPICABLE ME 2 and LONE RANGER opening, eating into audiences and theaters/screen counts. Man of Steel drops another 40% this weekdays, aided by the holiday boost. 22 million over the Holidays.

4th Weekend
Same holiday weekend. Stiff competition, but more folks out at the movies. Man of steels 3 DAY holds nicely, dropping 41% to 21 million. Through 24 days, MAN OF STEEL has amassed a huge $381 million dollars.

4TH WEEKDAYS
No holiday boost, but still hold strong. Down just 35% from last week, making 14.3 million over the weekdays.

5th Weekend
More competition from PACIFIC RIM and GROWN UPS 2. Man Of Steels drops to 12.5 million.

At this point, the summers epic break out has 407 million. A multiplier of 3.4 awaits the rest of it, adding 31 million to it’s gross.

A bonafide mega break out ala TRANSFORMERS, Man of Steel ends its run as the summers biggest and most beloved film, total a staggering 438 million with overseas grosses putting near the $1 billion mark.

 

[Excel]

I didn't realize just how much every sign is truly pointing to LARGE SCALE break out. That run...if WB agreed to pay BALE more money than god to come out for justice league...JL MIGHT top avatar, it would be so big.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

General Demand
Superman Returns performance is a testament to the fact that Superman is popular with filmgoers. SR inflates to 245 million domestically, despite the vintage, gloomy, actionless marketing, despite not having the inflated 3D ticket prices Man Of Steel will have & of having pirates of the Caribbean 2 utterly decimate right after release. I, personally, consider Superman Return s the complete floor for a Superman films box office potential. Average marketing, decent film, massive competition. It is hard to imagine a faithful Superman film being less interesting than SR. So, we will examine what SR inflates to now to determine said ‘floor’.

SR had a funky opening. It opened on a Wednesday, spreading it’s opening out a bit. Plus, it’s first Monday and Tuesday were holidays, even further spreading out it. It achieved #s of 52.5m opening weekend (Fri-Sun), 84.5m Wed – Fri, and 106m the first 7 days. To properly apply this to MAN OF STEEL, we need to go further in our analysis and apply the same opening weekend circumstances MAN OF STEEL will experience and go further. I would estimate that, had SR opened on a Friday on a normal weekend, those numbers indicate an opening weekend in the 76-78 million range in 2006 dollars. In 2013 dollars, that is 93-96 million. Now, lets add in 3D inflation. This is not increasing the # of tickets sold – it is the same # of tickets estimated to have been sold in 2006, we are just increasing the average ticket price as 3D tickets account for a large percentage of all tickets sold & are more expensive. Let’s add 15% overall (a conservative estimate), using the 3D ticket ratio which says 3D tickers are roughly 40% more expensive and account for roughly 35-40% of all tickets sold. 93 – 96 million + 15% would put it’s opening range around 107 – 110m.

In other words, IF Superman Returns opened in 2013, on a normal Friday, was in 3 –D, AND sold the EXACT SAME number of tickets it would have sold in 2006, it would open in the 107 – 110 million ball park. That is with average marketing, decent reviews, and strong competition (DEVIL WEARS PRADA opens in the mid 30s).

As a result, lets consider the 107 – 110 million range the FLOOR for a Superman film on opening weekend. The only thing SR had going for it which MOS does not is the “novelty factor’ – SR was the first supes film in near 20 years while MOS only has 7 years. Of course, SR was so forgettable that I think this makes it irrelevant. MOS could not look any more different than SR either way.

Conclusion: general demand for a Superman film is quite high, as evidenced by the floor for a Superman films opening weekend is very high by most standards. If 1100m is the floor, the ceiling is clearly very high. Achieving that ceiling requires excellent marketing, an excellent film, and a great release date. Even though everybody says he is “old fashioned” and “boring”, SR sold a lot of tickets for its context on opening weekend.

Overall demand: 8/10, about as high a non sequel & non original adaption (i.e. 1989s BATMAN, 2002S SPIDERMAN), can get.

Production
Though Cavill is not a star, he is a stud, and his face makes the film instantly more appealing to women. Russell Crowe is the biggest star to join an entry level superhero film since Jack Nicholson. Though Shannon brings little to the table, Costner, Lane, Fishbourne, and Adams in particular are all more than recognizable to most film goers and instantly add credibility to this concept. Though none are certified mega draws, they INCREASE the credibility behind the brand ‘Superman’, which is the real draw. Superman is such a famous character with such potential that his mass appeal makes one of those guys everyone WANTS to like, but it just isn’t there yet because the potential has never been fulfilled, filmwise. Adding such quality actors AND getting Nolans name attached – the hottest name in Hollywood – is a big, big deal.

The mid June release date DEF. COULD BE BETTER – not sure when it hasn’t switched with Pacific Rim. That said, the lack of competition surrounding it at this point (only remotely threatening film within a week of release is MONSTERS UNIVERSITY), it isn’t too large of a concern at this point. SR – opening a week before the biggest opener ever at the time – is a great example of a TERRIBLE release date.

As far as the film itself, it looks modern, large scale, serious, and yet still a bit popcorny. It doesn’t look vintage of morose ala SR. It also looks action packed, with sci fi alien fighting, tornados, large scale city destruction, and above all, hand to hand super fight combat on display. Cavill has a very good looking face and ripped body, Adams is quite pretty, Crowe is full on Gladiator mode, and Snyder is a money shot king – the film is EXTREMELY marketable.

So, I guess give Production 9.5/10. Very credible cast and crew, extremely marketable film, only loses the .5 because the release date could be better.

Marketing:
It is my opinion that Man of steel trio of trailers is the best I have followed for a non sequel. One must understand that trailers for sequels, which feature established characters, are very different than non sequel trailers and as a result are difficult to compare. Man Of Steel’s trailers are right on level with SPIDER-MAN (2002) and TRANSFORMERS (2007), which have some of the best ever made. Prior to the trailers, folks didn’t hate the character, but it would take great trailers make the interest go from “somewhat there” to “definite”. The trailers have been every measure been nothing short of incredible, earning praise everywhere one could look, both for trailer editing and footage in general. They have aired with THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, THE HOBBIT, and IRON MAN 3 – 3 of the biggest films in the past 12 months. They will air with GATSBY and HANGOVER 3 – 2 more solid hits. By film trailer standards, they have a TON of views on youtube.

These ‘all time great’ trailers have gotten about as much exposure as one could wish. The tv spot campaign is just getting going, but the trailers have been well edited thus far. I see little no reason to expect something other than an enormous and extremely effective tv spot campaign. The film is also boosting several high profile tie ins, with Carls Jr, Kelloggs, Twizzlers, and Wal Mart all being involved with I am sure more to come.

Marketing wise, Man Of Steel has a very strong case best marketing of the summer. It isn’t IRON MAN 3, where the name alone assure 150m+ opening weekend. I am judging marketing by how effective it is at maximizing a films potential.

Marketing: 9.5/10. Posters are not that great, though there very unimportant.

Reviews
Unknown, but everything points to excellent. Lets assume they’re good.

Expectations
Man Of Steel opens late on Thursday, June 13th riding a wave of ‘overwhelming in quantity and extremely effective in quality’ marketing to glowing reviews. Everyone knows MOS will be a hit, the question is ‘how big’? All timer or just decent break out?

MIDNIGHT AND SNEAK PREVIEW GROSS
Transformers 2 (17 million) is the only big time action release which even close to MOS mid June date. School is still in session in many places, though college is out. So, while midnight potential simply is not at the 30-40 million ceiling it is in July, it is not at the 15-18 million cap it is in May. That said, MOS isn’t a sequel. Sequels experience the highest midnight numbers. I will say that between sneaks and midnight screenings, MOS should seek about 80% of the tickets Transformers 2 did. MOS will have more showings and they’re more popular now than they were then. That is ABOUT 16 million. Now, we add in 3D.

Look for sneak peaks and midnights for MAN OF STEEL to total in $22 million range. Thanks to TWITTER, word of mouth spreads rapidly that the film is awesome, and it looks likely to maximize it’s Friday potential.

POST MIDNIGHT FRIDAY GROSS
TOY STORY 3, opening on the same time 3 years ago, achieved 37 million on Friday. With inflation, and 3D added in, the same $ of tickets $45 million in today’s dollars. Though TS3 was a nostalgic sequel, it did not have as broad appeal as MAN OF STEEL. Plus, it was the type of film which truly lacked the ‘rush out’ factor, as evidenced by it’s extremely strong legs. I will say MAN OF STEELS grosses another $46 million during the day Friday – a little less than the # of tickets TOY STORY 3 sold.

Combined, MAN OF STEEL achieved an opening day $68 million, a towering amount given the word of mouth spreading like wildfire.

SATURDAY GROSS
Word of mouth is great, and the film will play well with families. Plus, there is little family competition. As a result, expect a slight drop from the 46 million yesterday, down to 42 million.

Man of Steel has a running 2 day total of $110 million.

SUNDAY GROSS
This Sunday is Fathers Day – a strong day the films. Another small drop is in store, this time down to $35 million.

TOTAL OPENING WEEKEND
Man of Steel opens to a large $145 million, shattering the June opening weekend record and making WB mess their pants around the globe. Everybody in the country is now aware that MAN OF STEEL is the break out of the summer, and with no big films remaining to garner mass excitement, everyone begins making plans to see it (or see it again).

1ST MON - Thursday
MOS runs right on path with TOY STORY (despite opening much larger than), securing 60 million through weekdays. The break down is 17, 16, 14, 13. Man of Steel has achieved an opening week of $205 million. In just 7 days, it has outgrossed SUPERMAN RETURNS entire run.

2nd WEEKEND
Monsters U hits, opening in the mid 70s, knocking Superman off from #1 and eating into the kids audience. MAN OF STEEL drops 56% in it’s second week. That totals it at 63 million. MAN OF STEELS 10 day total stands at $268 million.

2ND WEEKDAYS
As word of mouth keeps kicking in, more schools are let out and the drops stabilize, Man of Steels 2nd week sees a drop of 41% from the previous week, totaling 36 million.

3rd WEEKEND
MAN OF STEEL faces direct competition from WHITE HOUSE DOWN, which performs well but not amazingly. MOS drops 45% that weekend, down to 34 million. MAN OF STEELS 17 day total is 338 million dollars.

3rd WEEK DAYS
This is July 4th week. More films are competition, with DESPICABLE ME 2 and LONE RANGER opening, eating into audiences and theaters/screen counts. Man of Steel drops another 40% this weekdays, aided by the holiday boost. 22 million over the Holidays.

4th Weekend
Same holiday weekend. Stiff competition, but more folks out at the movies. Man of steels 3 DAY holds nicely, dropping 41% to 21 million. Through 24 days, MAN OF STEEL has amassed a huge $381 million dollars.

4TH WEEKDAYS
No holiday boost, but still hold strong. Down just 35% from last week, making 14.3 million over the weekdays.

5th Weekend
More competition from PACIFIC RIM and GROWN UPS 2. Man Of Steels drops to 12.5 million.

At this point, the summers epic break out has 407 million. A multiplier of 3.4 awaits the rest of it, adding 31 million to it’s gross.

A bonafide mega break out ala TRANSFORMERS, Man of Steel ends its run as the summers biggest and most beloved film, total a staggering 438 million with overseas grosses putting near the $1 billion mark.

I like this.
And I do hope it does that well. The potential is definitely there.

 

[Tobias]

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but I think most here are way overestimating MOS's box.

Remember 2006? The same thing happened with SR. Domestic predictions of 400 and 500 million were the norm. As they are now for MOS.

Deadline has a better prediction track record than most sites and they say 220 million domestic. I think they are a bit low.

Nolan's name should be worth 10% - bringing MOS to 220 based on SR's numbers. The cost of going to films is up like 10% bringing the figure to 240 million. There seems to be more action, so add another 10 million.

My guess - 250 million domestic and about the same foreign. As with SR which had similar domestic and foreign numbers.

500 million total. Not bad, but not good enough for a sequel. It might kill JL - who knows. That kind of number, if reports are to be believed, means WB will reboot Batman again before doing JL or other stand-alone films..

Don't forget the recent Thor2 trailer has almost as many youtube views as MOS (per an admittedly Thor site I recently visited). Yahoo had MOS at 6 as most anticipated film. About where SR was.

Deja-vu maybe? These are exactly the same over-the-top-predictions we saw for SR. Plus, note that there was much more talk of an SR sequel prior to it's release than there is of an MOS sequel. Do a google search. True some of that may have been the cagey Singer.

My prediction again is 500 million WW. A disappointment, but not as big as SR - depending on how much MOS cost to make.

Just saying.

 

[Excel]

250 million is selling about 12% less tickets than SUPERMAN RETURNS. That is just impossible.

 

[kendalag]

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but I think most here are way overestimating MOS's box.

Remember 2006? The same thing happened with SR. Domestic predictions of 400 and 500 million were the norm. As they are now for MOS.

Deadline has a better prediction track record than most sites and they say 220 million domestic. I think they are a bit low.

Nolan's name should be worth 10% - bringing MOS to 220 based on SR's numbers. The cost of going to films is up like 10% bringing the figure to 240 million. There seems to be more action, so add another 10 million.

My guess - 250 million domestic and about the same foreign. As with SR which had similar domestic and foreign numbers.

500 million total. Not bad, but not good enough for a sequel. It might kill JL - who knows. That kind of number, if reports are to be believed, means WB will reboot Batman again before doing JL or other stand-alone films..

Don't forget the recent Thor2 trailer has almost as many youtube views as MOS (per an admittedly Thor site I recently visited). Yahoo had MOS at 6 as most anticipated film. About where SR was.

Deja-vu maybe? These are exactly the same over-the-top-predictions we saw for SR. Plus, note that there was much more talk of an SR sequel prior to it's release than there is of an MOS sequel. Do a google search. True some of that may have been the cagey Singer.

My prediction again is 500 million WW. A disappointment, but not as big as SR - depending on how much MOS cost to make.

Just saying.

Deadline is also the same site that routinely reports box office estimates with ludicrous ranges ... and they have Star Trek Into Darkness prediction like 20 million less than the first one ... despite having 3D ... and great word of mouth from the last one.

220 is a laughable prediction from them IMO. 250 feels like complete low balling on this film as well. I've never really been that interested in a Superman movie, but I'm more excited than maybe even The Dark Knight. 20+ million movie goers will likely see the Man of Steel trailer before Iron Man 3 ... I doubt they'll be disappointed.

As has been mentioned, for as bad as Superman Returns was, it still made over 200 million without 3D in 2006 ... and had the highest grossing opener of all time debut a week later, killing any possible momentum. Man of Steel has seemingly great buzz, great trailers & no 135 million dollar opener waiting to debut the following week.

This film is making 700 million worldwide ... if it only makes 500 million with this type of buzz & 3D helping expand overseas markets, turn out the lights & close up shop ... DC is toast outside Batman.

 

[Tobias]

250 million is selling about 12% less tickets than SUPERMAN RETURNS. That is just impossible.

I may have my inflation numbers wrong. Sorry. So north of 250 million but under 300 million. These things are hard to judge I admit. Still 500 million or 550 WW is not going to cut it IMO.

Remember, adjusting for prices as you did in your excellent (in terms of depth but totally off base in terms of actual numbers IMO) analysis is half the equation. If ticket prices have gone up 10%, say, then MOS doing 10% better than SR means nothing. Adjusted for inflation it did the same.

I do think there will be an extra kick from Nolan's name and what looks like more action (but SR fooled us on that didn't it)? So who knows.

Relatively speaking and adjusting for inflation, I think MOS will do a bit better than SR. Again, it depends on what it cost to make MOS and SR. We are hearing wild numbers for MOS as we did for SR. Only WB knows

Curious, you've been a member on these boards since before SR. Did you make a prediction on SR's box at the time? If so what was your WW box estimate?

I wasn't on the boards back then but never was enthused about SR so wasn't expecting much.

 

[Tobias]

Deadline is also the same site that routinely reports box office estimates with ludicrous ranges ... and they have Star Trek Into Darkness prediction like 20 million less than the first one ... despite having 3D ... and great word of mouth from the last one.

220 is a laughable prediction from them IMO. 250 feels like complete low balling on this film as well. I've never really been that interested in a Superman movie, but I'm more excited than maybe even The Dark Knight. 20+ million movie goers will likely see the Man of Steel trailer before Iron Man 3 ... I doubt they'll be disappointed.

As has been mentioned, for as bad as Superman Returns was, it still made over 200 million without 3D in 2006 ... and had the highest grossing opener of all time debut a week later, killing any possible momentum. Man of Steel has seemingly great buzz, great trailers & no 135 million dollar opener waiting to debut the following week.

This film is making 700 million worldwide ... if it only makes 500 million with this type of buzz & 3D helping expand overseas markets, turn out the lights & close up shop ... DC is toast outside Batman.

If it only makes 550 million WW it is toast. It's hard for me to see how it gets from here to there.

WB is waxing positive just like they did with SR. But take that with a grain of salt. What else are they going to say? Not saying the movie is bad but that you need to totally discount what WB says, what any studio says.

There was much more talk of an SR sequel prior to SR than there is of an MOS sequel. Maybe that just means that WB has decided to go with JL as their next franchise or maybe...?

BTW, I said the deadline prediction is probably low. More like 250 million plus and less than 300 million domestic. Numbers that won't cut it. Unless you are a Bats fan.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

General Demand
Superman Returns performance is a testament to the fact that Superman is popular with filmgoers. SR inflates to 245 million domestically, despite the vintage, gloomy, actionless marketing, despite not having the inflated 3D ticket prices Man Of Steel will have & of having pirates of the Caribbean 2 utterly decimate right after release. I, personally, consider Superman Return s the complete floor for a Superman films box office potential. Average marketing, decent film, massive competition. It is hard to imagine a faithful Superman film being less interesting than SR. So, we will examine what SR inflates to now to determine said ‘floor’.

SR had a funky opening. It opened on a Wednesday, spreading it’s opening out a bit. Plus, it’s first Monday and Tuesday were holidays, even further spreading out it. It achieved #s of 52.5m opening weekend (Fri-Sun), 84.5m Wed – Fri, and 106m the first 7 days. To properly apply this to MAN OF STEEL, we need to go further in our analysis and apply the same opening weekend circumstances MAN OF STEEL will experience and go further. I would estimate that, had SR opened on a Friday on a normal weekend, those numbers indicate an opening weekend in the 76-78 million range in 2006 dollars. In 2013 dollars, that is 93-96 million. Now, lets add in 3D inflation. This is not increasing the # of tickets sold – it is the same # of tickets estimated to have been sold in 2006, we are just increasing the average ticket price as 3D tickets account for a large percentage of all tickets sold & are more expensive. Let’s add 15% overall (a conservative estimate), using the 3D ticket ratio which says 3D tickers are roughly 40% more expensive and account for roughly 35-40% of all tickets sold. 93 – 96 million + 15% would put it’s opening range around 107 – 110m.

In other words, IF Superman Returns opened in 2013, on a normal Friday, was in 3 –D, AND sold the EXACT SAME number of tickets it would have sold in 2006, it would open in the 107 – 110 million ball park. That is with average marketing, decent reviews, and strong competition (DEVIL WEARS PRADA opens in the mid 30s).

As a result, lets consider the 107 – 110 million range the FLOOR for a Superman film on opening weekend. The only thing SR had going for it which MOS does not is the “novelty factor’ – SR was the first supes film in near 20 years while MOS only has 7 years. Of course, SR was so forgettable that I think this makes it irrelevant. MOS could not look any more different than SR either way.

Conclusion: general demand for a Superman film is quite high, as evidenced by the floor for a Superman films opening weekend is very high by most standards. If 1100m is the floor, the ceiling is clearly very high. Achieving that ceiling requires excellent marketing, an excellent film, and a great release date. Even though everybody says he is “old fashioned” and “boring”, SR sold a lot of tickets for its context on opening weekend.

Overall demand: 8/10, about as high a non sequel & non original adaption (i.e. 1989s BATMAN, 2002S SPIDERMAN), can get.

Production
Though Cavill is not a star, he is a stud, and his face makes the film instantly more appealing to women. Russell Crowe is the biggest star to join an entry level superhero film since Jack Nicholson. Though Shannon brings little to the table, Costner, Lane, Fishbourne, and Adams in particular are all more than recognizable to most film goers and instantly add credibility to this concept. Though none are certified mega draws, they INCREASE the credibility behind the brand ‘Superman’, which is the real draw. Superman is such a famous character with such potential that his mass appeal makes one of those guys everyone WANTS to like, but it just isn’t there yet because the potential has never been fulfilled, filmwise. Adding such quality actors AND getting Nolans name attached – the hottest name in Hollywood – is a big, big deal.

The mid June release date DEF. COULD BE BETTER – not sure when it hasn’t switched with Pacific Rim. That said, the lack of competition surrounding it at this point (only remotely threatening film within a week of release is MONSTERS UNIVERSITY), it isn’t too large of a concern at this point. SR – opening a week before the biggest opener ever at the time – is a great example of a TERRIBLE release date.

As far as the film itself, it looks modern, large scale, serious, and yet still a bit popcorny. It doesn’t look vintage of morose ala SR. It also looks action packed, with sci fi alien fighting, tornados, large scale city destruction, and above all, hand to hand super fight combat on display. Cavill has a very good looking face and ripped body, Adams is quite pretty, Crowe is full on Gladiator mode, and Snyder is a money shot king – the film is EXTREMELY marketable.

So, I guess give Production 9.5/10. Very credible cast and crew, extremely marketable film, only loses the .5 because the release date could be better.

Marketing:
It is my opinion that Man of steel trio of trailers is the best I have followed for a non sequel. One must understand that trailers for sequels, which feature established characters, are very different than non sequel trailers and as a result are difficult to compare. Man Of Steel’s trailers are right on level with SPIDER-MAN (2002) and TRANSFORMERS (2007), which have some of the best ever made. Prior to the trailers, folks didn’t hate the character, but it would take great trailers make the interest go from “somewhat there” to “definite”. The trailers have been every measure been nothing short of incredible, earning praise everywhere one could look, both for trailer editing and footage in general. They have aired with THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, THE HOBBIT, and IRON MAN 3 – 3 of the biggest films in the past 12 months. They will air with GATSBY and HANGOVER 3 – 2 more solid hits. By film trailer standards, they have a TON of views on youtube.

These ‘all time great’ trailers have gotten about as much exposure as one could wish. The tv spot campaign is just getting going, but the trailers have been well edited thus far. I see little no reason to expect something other than an enormous and extremely effective tv spot campaign. The film is also boosting several high profile tie ins, with Carls Jr, Kelloggs, Twizzlers, and Wal Mart all being involved with I am sure more to come.

Marketing wise, Man Of Steel has a very strong case best marketing of the summer. It isn’t IRON MAN 3, where the name alone assure 150m+ opening weekend. I am judging marketing by how effective it is at maximizing a films potential.

Marketing: 9.5/10. Posters are not that great, though there very unimportant.

Reviews
Unknown, but everything points to excellent. Lets assume they’re good.

Expectations
Man Of Steel opens late on Thursday, June 13th riding a wave of ‘overwhelming in quantity and extremely effective in quality’ marketing to glowing reviews. Everyone knows MOS will be a hit, the question is ‘how big’? All timer or just decent break out?

MIDNIGHT AND SNEAK PREVIEW GROSS
Transformers 2 (17 million) is the only big time action release which even close to MOS mid June date. School is still in session in many places, though college is out. So, while midnight potential simply is not at the 30-40 million ceiling it is in July, it is not at the 15-18 million cap it is in May. That said, MOS isn’t a sequel. Sequels experience the highest midnight numbers. I will say that between sneaks and midnight screenings, MOS should seek about 80% of the tickets Transformers 2 did. MOS will have more showings and they’re more popular now than they were then. That is ABOUT 16 million. Now, we add in 3D.

Look for sneak peaks and midnights for MAN OF STEEL to total in $22 million range. Thanks to TWITTER, word of mouth spreads rapidly that the film is awesome, and it looks likely to maximize it’s Friday potential.

POST MIDNIGHT FRIDAY GROSS
TOY STORY 3, opening on the same time 3 years ago, achieved 37 million on Friday. With inflation, and 3D added in, the same $ of tickets $45 million in today’s dollars. Though TS3 was a nostalgic sequel, it did not have as broad appeal as MAN OF STEEL. Plus, it was the type of film which truly lacked the ‘rush out’ factor, as evidenced by it’s extremely strong legs. I will say MAN OF STEELS grosses another $46 million during the day Friday – a little less than the # of tickets TOY STORY 3 sold.

Combined, MAN OF STEEL achieved an opening day $68 million, a towering amount given the word of mouth spreading like wildfire.

SATURDAY GROSS
Word of mouth is great, and the film will play well with families. Plus, there is little family competition. As a result, expect a slight drop from the 46 million yesterday, down to 42 million.

Man of Steel has a running 2 day total of $110 million.

SUNDAY GROSS
This Sunday is Fathers Day – a strong day the films. Another small drop is in store, this time down to $35 million.

TOTAL OPENING WEEKEND
Man of Steel opens to a large $145 million, shattering the June opening weekend record and making WB mess their pants around the globe. Everybody in the country is now aware that MAN OF STEEL is the break out of the summer, and with no big films remaining to garner mass excitement, everyone begins making plans to see it (or see it again).

1ST MON - Thursday
MOS runs right on path with TOY STORY (despite opening much larger than), securing 60 million through weekdays. The break down is 17, 16, 14, 13. Man of Steel has achieved an opening week of $205 million. In just 7 days, it has outgrossed SUPERMAN RETURNS entire run.

2nd WEEKEND
Monsters U hits, opening in the mid 70s, knocking Superman off from #1 and eating into the kids audience. MAN OF STEEL drops 56% in it’s second week. That totals it at 63 million. MAN OF STEELS 10 day total stands at $268 million.

2ND WEEKDAYS
As word of mouth keeps kicking in, more schools are let out and the drops stabilize, Man of Steels 2nd week sees a drop of 41% from the previous week, totaling 36 million.

3rd WEEKEND
MAN OF STEEL faces direct competition from WHITE HOUSE DOWN, which performs well but not amazingly. MOS drops 45% that weekend, down to 34 million. MAN OF STEELS 17 day total is 338 million dollars.

3rd WEEK DAYS
This is July 4th week. More films are competition, with DESPICABLE ME 2 and LONE RANGER opening, eating into audiences and theaters/screen counts. Man of Steel drops another 40% this weekdays, aided by the holiday boost. 22 million over the Holidays.

4th Weekend
Same holiday weekend. Stiff competition, but more folks out at the movies. Man of steels 3 DAY holds nicely, dropping 41% to 21 million. Through 24 days, MAN OF STEEL has amassed a huge $381 million dollars.

4TH WEEKDAYS
No holiday boost, but still hold strong. Down just 35% from last week, making 14.3 million over the weekdays.

5th Weekend
More competition from PACIFIC RIM and GROWN UPS 2. Man Of Steels drops to 12.5 million.

At this point, the summers epic break out has 407 million. A multiplier of 3.4 awaits the rest of it, adding 31 million to it’s gross.

A bonafide mega break out ala TRANSFORMERS, Man of Steel ends its run as the summers biggest and most beloved film, total a staggering 438 million with overseas grosses putting near the $1 billion mark.

I really like your prediction. Thing is, though, this maybe the hardest guaranteed hit to predict. It will make money though.

 

[Tobias]

I really like your prediction. Thing is, though, this maybe the hardest guaranteed hit to predict. It will make money though.

Problem is nothing is guaranteed - SR was a guaranteed hit. EW featured a shot of Routh on the cover of their 2006 summer movie issue. Just as they are featuring one of cavill now. Both covers are "off" for lack of a better word.

BTW, EW is a TW publication. Take what they are saying with a grain of salt. Deadline has a better track record, though I think their 220 million domestic estimate is off by 30 million or so.

 

[LeXcalibur]

550 mil worldwide is most likely. it will be enough for a sequel.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Too bad anything from $500 to $550 million won't cut it.

 

[Tyrone Parker]

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but I think most here are way overestimating MOS's box.

Remember 2006? The same thing happened with SR. Domestic predictions of 400 and 500 million were the norm. As they are now for MOS.

Deadline has a better prediction track record than most sites and they say 220 million domestic. I think they are a bit low.

Nolan's name should be worth 10% - bringing MOS to 220 based on SR's numbers. The cost of going to films is up like 10% bringing the figure to 240 million. There seems to be more action, so add another 10 million.

My guess - 250 million domestic and about the same foreign. As with SR which had similar domestic and foreign numbers.

500 million total. Not bad, but not good enough for a sequel. It might kill JL - who knows. That kind of number, if reports are to be believed, means WB will reboot Batman again before doing JL or other stand-alone films..

Don't forget the recent Thor2 trailer has almost as many youtube views as MOS (per an admittedly Thor site I recently visited). Yahoo had MOS at 6 as most anticipated film. About where SR was.

Deja-vu maybe? These are exactly the same over-the-top-predictions we saw for SR. Plus, note that there was much more talk of an SR sequel prior to it's release than there is of an MOS sequel. Do a google search. True some of that may have been the cagey Singer.

My prediction again is 500 million WW. A disappointment, but not as big as SR - depending on how much MOS cost to make.

Just saying.

Your way off here and you cant even get your facts straight. MOS is the #1 most anticipated movie of the year on Yahoo.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

LOL. MOS doing 250M OS?? Less than Thor (and many other mediocre movies)? Sorry, but it isn't happening.

 

[GreenKToo]

comparing sr to mos is like comparing taco bell to a real mexican restaurant.
the cast. no comparison
action. again, there was no supervillian in sr, here we have what? 5? 6? ive saw enough action in the trailer to know mos will be sick.
nolan. that name alone will sell alot of tickets

I dnt think mos will break any records, but it should make 635/650 mill ww.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

comparing sr to mos is like comparing taco bell to a real mexican restaurant.
the cast. no comparison
action. again, there was no supervillian in sr, here we have what? 5? 6? ive saw enough action in the trailer to know mos will be sick.
nolan. that name alone will sell alot of tickets

I dnt think mos will break any records, but it should make 635/650 mill ww.

This.

 

[Micromind]

Let's not forget that SR faced a tough competition from POTC 2.

Man of Steel has added benefit of a strong visual director, who can convince most general audience members to watch this movie multiple times, so it will be making more than SR domestically.

In case of overseas collections, Nolan brand, the action quotient, the 3D and the star cast will draw-in more audience than SR did.

Not to mention the fact that market has expanded immensely since 2006, meaning more theaters overseas.

It will be making more than SR, above 700 mil.

 

[Tobias]

Too bad anything from $500 to $550 million won't cut it.

True. 500 million WW would be about what SR would have done today in adjusted numbers. Interesting that on the poll here about a third feel it will do 500 million or less. 550 million would be seen as a bigger disappointment than SR's 400 million because of the added star power of MOS and Nolan's name associated with it.

 

[Liam_H]

Your way off here and you cant even get your facts straight. MOS is the #1 most anticipated movie of the year on Yahoo.

What does this even mean?

 

[ЯɘvlveR]

that its the most anticipated movie of the year according to yahoo.

 

[Tobias]

Doesn't AE open 1 week from MOS on 6/7. EW's summer movie special gives that date.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

What does this even mean?

It means lol Tyrone.

 

[Greeneyes]

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but I think most here are way overestimating MOS's box.

Remember 2006? The same thing happened with SR. Domestic predictions of 400 and 500 million were the norm. As they are now for MOS.

Deadline has a better prediction track record than most sites and they say 220 million domestic. I think they are a bit low.

Nolan's name should be worth 10% - bringing MOS to 220 based on SR's numbers. The cost of going to films is up like 10% bringing the figure to 240 million. There seems to be more action, so add another 10 million.

My guess - 250 million domestic and about the same foreign. As with SR which had similar domestic and foreign numbers.

500 million total. Not bad, but not good enough for a sequel. It might kill JL - who knows. That kind of number, if reports are to be believed, means WB will reboot Batman again before doing JL or other stand-alone films..

Don't forget the recent Thor2 trailer has almost as many youtube views as MOS (per an admittedly Thor site I recently visited). Yahoo had MOS at 6 as most anticipated film. About where SR was.

Deja-vu maybe? These are exactly the same over-the-top-predictions we saw for SR. Plus, note that there was much more talk of an SR sequel prior to it's release than there is of an MOS sequel. Do a google search. True some of that may have been the cagey Singer.

My prediction again is 500 million WW. A disappointment, but not as big as SR - depending on how much MOS cost to make.

Just saying.

Hi Doug22 t:

You must be really angry that Man of Steel is looking like being a huge success and a new start for Superman. Sequels and JL or World's Finest seem very likely,and your favorite subject about the court order and Superman's 'legal 'problems' has also now gone away for goodt:

Even so,you are still trying to put down the new films box office and hoping that it wont be successful.

If you or others think I'm being over the top then just check out all your previous posts.

You are a longtime subtle Superman hater who wants him to vanish.

Good day to you Sir.