Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Kryptonian Titan]

Still going to play it safe and say MOS opens to $107 million.

Mine is currently at $110M. As it gets closer to the release date, maybe I'll update it to $115M.

 

[Greeneyes]

Action is the key in this type of film. If the action is great the story can be weak and the film do well. Not saying the MOS story is weak, just sayin.

Actually MU comes out the following week and Z which is a problem. Not of POTC proportions but still a problem.

I didn't mean to bash SR as such just that IMO one key strategic mistake, Superman's kid, put a damper leading up to the film on the film.

Course the costume issue won't go away and SR and MOS's costumes are not liked by many fans anyway.

On the plus side the MOS costume does not compress Cavill - he looks buff and it is not and issue. The SR costume compressed Routh so he appeared not buff though he actually was.

I miss the red trunks - did Snyder even try his suit with red trunks? But I can live with that. Not a deal breaker. And the large shield on the chest makes SR's small shiled look silly.

So we will see.

Being a Debbie Doubter by nature I am keeping my expectations kind of low on the BO. Maybe I will be in for a surprise.

MOS's costume is not liked by many fans anyway?

Where are you getting that from?

 

[Ita-KalEl]

I can figure a domestic box office similar to the Star Trek reboot (so 250-260m) and an international final gross of 330-350m. In this case the prediction of +600m ww seems right to me. For a reboot of a franchise unable to cross the 400m mark ww in its latest installment it would be a great success.

 

[GreenKToo]

MoS's suit is waaaay more accepted by fans than the last supersuit we got. Don't believe me? then ask the folks who were here during the last films production.
SR's suit was pretty much a 50/50 with the fans. lots of fights happened over it.
MoS's suit hasn't caused that split. If anything, it's A very tiny minority that dont like it.

I'm thinking 95/110 mill OW.

 

[GreenKToo]

I can figure a domestic box office similar to the Star Trek reboot (so 250-260m) and an international final gross of 330-350m. In this case the prediction of +600m ww seems right to me. For a reboot of a franchise unable to cross the 400m mark ww in its latest installment it would be a great success.

I'm with you. I think anywhere from 600/650 mill ww. BUT, I wont close the door on it doing more, alot more, especially if it turns out to be one of those very special films that comes along every once in a while. we'll know more when the release date gets closer, ie, tracking, awareness, etc etc. For me, the key is the early reviews, the ones that are real.

So yeah, for now i'm sticking with my above guess.

 

[Sharkboy]

I'm hoping for Inception numbers.

Still amazes me how that film got 800 mil world wide.

 

[elgaz]

There's been a hugely strong response to the trailers, a general hunger for a Superman film, a much better awareness of CBM in general thanks to Batman/Avengers/Iron Man/etc, and Cavill also has a huge female fanbase which won't hurt things .

And let's not forget that even though there's only been 1 (lukewarm) Superman movie in the few decades, he's still a hugely iconic and popular character. Handled properly (which I hope he will be in MOS), I think the box office could be at Avengers level.

 

[GreenKToo]

I feel like I have done my little part to help. I got three of my fellow co-workers excited to see it. I know they were tired of hearing me go on and on about it, so they finally caved in and watched the trailers and were like ''wow, now that's the kinda superman film I want to see.'' One is even going with me to the midnite showing.

 

[restlessdreams]

Early tracking here is excellent (SUPR2), $125M opening being predicted.

http://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=232001

That's what I think the max is going to be. If they think 125 million look for it to make around there are or a little less. But the thing is not so much about the opening weekend, it going to win everyone knows that. But the following weeks there are big movies coming out. MU will take the following weekend and so MOS and WWZ will battle it out for second place. It just that it's such a crowded movie season that you really only have your weekend to make a good amount of money.

 

[manofsteel4life]

I'm playing it safe.......5 billion worldwide....

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Anything over 120 m OW would be cool with me because it makes the path to 300 m relatively easy.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I'm hoping for Inception numbers.

Still amazes me how that film got 800 mil world wide.

Fantastic word of mouth, which led to Stacey Keibler like legs.

 

[Tobias]

That's what I think the max is going to be. If they think 125 million look for it to make around there are or a little less. But the thing is not so much about the opening weekend, it going to win everyone knows that. But the following weeks there are big movies coming out. MU will take the following weekend and so MOS and WWZ will battle it out for second place. It just that it's such a crowded movie season that you really only have your weekend to make a good amount of money.

Excel has MOS dropping to number 2 the second weekend behind MU. He didn't include WWZ in his analysis of that weekend so I'm not sure if his analysis would change if he had considered Z too.

I think the OW 's are too high. I'm thinking 90 million but with a good multiplier that could get MOS near 300 million domestic.

It's a poor release date with tons of competition following in the weeks after. Not quite POTC tough but WB should have debuted MOS where they put Pacific Rim IMO.

I'm saying 260 - 270 domestic. Means the OS box will have to bring MOS home if it is to reach 600 million. Last time SR did less OS than domestic. Superman does seem to do as well OS as other superheroes like Ironman and Spidey and Bats. But the OS market is bigger now than in 2006 and maybe MOS will make more OS than domestic. I really can't gauge the OS market.

 

[G.Godfrey]

MOS and WWZ will battle it out for second place.

LOL! You serious? There won't be a battle between these two. Only complete and utter decimation.

 

[restlessdreams]

LOL! You serious? There won't be a battle between these two. Only complete and utter decimation.

I think there can be yes. You have a movie based on a book that many people like and it's zombies. For whatever reason the public love zombies, most in part because of the walking dead. Plus you put a star like Brad Pitt you could see a good amount of people going to see it. I'm not saying MOS won't beat out WWZ but they are both aiming for the same audience which will cut into MOS's overall profit.

Look at it this way, MOS opening weekend total could be 125M. But the following weekend it will most likely drop about 50% to 62.5M. Which in a two week time give it about 187.5M then after that it will drop again and again. It should pass the 200M mark here but it won't be something that does it fast.

 

[Project862006]

zombie films don'tdo well not starring will smith

 

[GreenKToo]

If MoS is as good as advertised, I think it will be close to 200 mill ( say about 185 mill) in about 7 or 8 days.
If the above is true, MoS will hit 200 mill, and easily pass it by.
It Should end up around 300/315 mill dom. all indications point to it being just as good as we all hope it is. at least it looks that way to most of us anyway.
WWZ wont even be a speed bump to MoS on the road to a good BO.

 

[Tobias]

MoS's suit is waaaay more accepted by fans than the last supersuit we got. Don't believe me? then ask the folks who were here during the last films production.
SR's suit was pretty much a 50/50 with the fans. lots of fights happened over it.
MoS's suit hasn't caused that split. If anything, it's A very tiny minority that dont like it.

I'm thinking 95/110 mill OW.

Yes, the suit is not as divisive this time. There are still purists though that want the trunks back and the yellow colors back.

I can live w/o the trunks but would love the see a photo of Cavill in the suit with the trunks. Snyder said they tried it.

I don't like the faux belt buckle kinds floating there. Why not do piping around the waist to give it the look more of a belt and use yellow/gold coloring? I think the design could have been better though it is not bad and I can live with it.

 

[Tobias]

If MoS is as good as advertised, I think it will be close to 200 mill ( say about 185 mill) in about 7 or 8 days.
MoS will hit 200 mill, and easily pass it by. It Should end up around 300 mill dom.
WWZ wont even be a speed bump to MoS on the road to that.

Depends on the opening. Using Excel's figures and a 100 million OW MOS hits 200 million just before the 3rd weekend - 18 or so days.

 

[restlessdreams]

Who knows I just want this movie to be out already haha. I do hope it makes the money it needs to so that we can movie along with other DC movies.

 

[restlessdreams]

Depends on the opening. Using Excel's figures and a 100 million OW MOS hits 200 million just before the 3rd weekend - 18 or so days.

Which in blockbuster movie terms is a long time to reach 200 million.

 

[Tobias]

Who knows I just want this movie to be out already haha. I do hope it makes the money it needs to so that we can movie along with other DC movies.

If it does well enough for WB to go ahead with JL and if JL is a hit and given that Cavill is signed for 3 movies only, it seems, what do you want?

Use Cavill in JL2 and not have him do an MOS sequel or recast Supes in JL2 and have Cavill do an MOS2? This assuming he refuses to go beyond doing 3 films.

 

[moviefreak]

I think there can be yes. You have a movie based on a book that many people like and it's zombies. For whatever reason the public love zombies, most in part because of the walking dead.

Walking Dead will have little influence on people seeing World War Z.

I have a good feeling that WW Z will bombs especially with reported ballooning budget (up to 200 millions) and it being crap. It is one of the two finanical bombs that I have on list for 2013, the other is the Lone Ranger (~250 millions).

I don't think that After Earth will bombs since it was budgeted at about 130 millions.

 

[Tobias]

Which in blockbuster movie terms is a long time to reach 200 million.

Yes it is. Taking Excel's numbers out a 100 million opening ends up with about 275 - 280 million domestic take. This is why the OS box is going to be key. It needs to outperform the domestic box significantly to reach 600 million WW.

 

[GreenKToo]

Depends on the opening. Using Excel's figures and a 100 million OW MOS hits 200 million just before the 3rd weekend - 18 or so days.

Exactly. Like I said, it could be a very special film and hit big, or, it could just do ok ( ok being 275 dom ). Not likely tho.
I'm leaning towards something special. It has that feel about it, all the bells and whistles.
I dont think it will break any records but I do think it will make plenty for sequels and more, and it will do it easily.