Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Tobias]

something like that. I am thinking about passing on it the first weekend, just because I know my wife will want to see Great Gatsby that weekend.


Tobias, yeah 90 million is the safe bet, but the way the social media and networks like twitter, youtube and such have been going I think anything under 100 million will be a slight disappointment for WB. It depends on how good the movie is and close tracking numbers to get a real estimate.

I remember the Hunger Games being estimated around 90-110 million and it blew up too 150ish/400 domestic. hope that happens with MOS!

Yeah, at this point, this far out, I am going more with sites like Deadline which have good track records. It's opening projection is under 100 million. Past performance is not a guarantee but I think it will be very hard for MOS to crack 100 million OW.

Course all this has to be revisited in about 2 weeks when the "hard" numbers start to come in.

The key is that 600 million mark, as 200 million was with SR, and I frankly think it is going to be tough for MOS to achieve that. Not at all impossible but I can foresee a long summer coming up as there was in 2006 when super-fans checked BOM every day to see how close SR was getting to it's magic 200 million number. Which, in the end, did not turn out to be a magic number. WB was playing fans with that IMO.

 

[fake]

Yeah, at this point, this far out, I am going more with sites like Deadline which have good track records. It's opening projection is under 100 million. Past performance is not a guarantee but I think it will be very hard for MOS to crack 100 million OW.

Course all this has to be revisited in about 2 weeks when the "hard" numbers start to come in.

Deadline never gave a projection - they spoke to an "industry analyst" who said that these were his numbers. Deadline never projects openings - they report the box office numbers only.

Someone should do a projection which averages all "Industry analyst" projections.

 

[Tobias]

Deadline never gave a projection - they spoke to an "industry analyst" who said that these were his numbers. Deadline never projects openings - they report the box office numbers only.

Someone should do a projection which averages all "Industry analyst" projections.

We need to get closer to release to have a good idea of how MOS will do.

More than a month out as I recall SR was tracking well and set to be a hit. There was talk of maybe 600 million. But estimates were wildly disparate as they are with MOS now.

A few weeks out from release tracking suddenly showed SR would do OK but was not showing numbers indicating a hit.

So we need to wait which is why I am keeping my numbers at 550 - 600 WW.

Not everything is the same as then.

The MOS trailers seem to have been better received than those of SR and there was this cloud of controversy that tracked SR in the months leading up to release - actually from the moment it was revealed more than a year out that Lois had a child (and of course everyone denied it was Supe's child but the movie-going folks paying attention didn't believe that for a NY minute). Which was added to by the suit controversy and whether Routh was buff or not. He was - it's just that the suit squashed everything in and it looked like he wasn't so buff.

Not that there isn't any controversy around MOS, but it is way less - or at least that is the sense I am getting. Buff henry is and almost as if to prove it Snyder has him shirtless, but not hairless, in the early parts of the film. The chest/facial hair thing has turned some off. Which I think is silly. If anything it makes the character more masculine and in your face. I'm sure there is some padding when he has the suit on but mostly, IMO, it's all him. Not to mention the BB which he is famous for and women adore. So yes, a different feel altogether in the leadup to the film is my sense.

 

[Namor!]

OW: 140 mil
WW: 1.1 bil

 

[Dr.]

Deadline never gave a projection - they spoke to an "industry analyst" who said that these were his numbers. Deadline never projects openings - they report the box office numbers only.

Someone should do a projection which averages all "Industry analyst" projections.

Boxoffice.com is saying a $108M OW with a $325 (domestic) total for MOS. BOMojo is saying a $290M total (no OW prediction that I can see). Are there more "official" prognosticators out there?

 

[Tobias]

Boxoffice.com is saying a $108M OW with a $325 (domestic) total for MOS. BOMojo is saying a $290M total (no OW prediction that I can see). Are there more "official" prognosticators out there?

That gives a running average of 278 million domestic. Close to my 270 million projection.

 

[Pickle-El]

Anyone else notice that this year High Schools are getting out a good week earlier in June. (6/7) At least in California they are.

MOS will be the first big blockbuster of the summer to benefit from school being out. Should really help out the weekday box office #'s.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Anyone else notice that this year High Schools are getting out a good week earlier in June. (6/7) At least in California they are.

MOS will be the first big blockbuster of the summer to benefit from school being out. Should really help out the weekday box office #'s.

24th of this month for Arizona high schools...But yeah, early June should do very well for some movies.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

Boxoffice.com is saying a $108M OW with a $325 (domestic) total for MOS. BOMojo is saying a $290M total (no OW prediction that I can see). Are there more "official" prognosticators out there?

I haven't found any...

 

[Tyrone Parker]

The MOS trailers seem to have been better received than those of SR and there was this cloud of controversy that tracked SR in the months leading up to release - actually from the moment it was revealed more than a year out that Lois had a child (and of course everyone denied it was Supe's child but the movie-going folks paying attention didn't believe that for a NY minute). Which was added to by the suit controversy and whether Routh was buff or not. He was - it's just that the suit squashed everything in and it looked like he wasn't so buff.

He was a metro-sexual looking wimpy pretty-boy . That was the problem with him.

Cavill actually looks like a real man, exactly how you envision Superman.

 

[Mysteryman]

OW: 140 mil
WW: 1.1 bil

Probably 650-700million
A billion isnt as easy as everybody thinks it is to acheive .

 

[IamtheBatman]

$750 million

 

[snpklsdmbldr]

Skyfall reached 1 Billion so it should be pretty easy for Man of Steel to do the same or at least reach near a billion. Compared to years back, reaching 1 Billion is now easy for blockbuster movies.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Skyfall reached 1 Billion so it should be pretty easy for Man of Steel to do the same or at least reach near a billion. Compared to years back, reaching 1 Billion is now easy for blockbuster movies.

Thing about Skyfall is: it was being released on the landmark 50th anniversary off the first film Dr. No, the previous two Daniel Craig Bond films struck BO gold, the reviews were very strong, and the fact that it made over $1 billion was special not just for the franchise, but for 2D movies. There were four movies that made $1 billion last year and two of them weren't in 3D and were released in IMAX(TDKR and Skyfall).

Point I'm making here is, it's not impossible for MOS to break $1 billion, but it'll need to overcome a lot of obstacles in order to do that. I'm sticking to anywhere from $650 million-700 million.

 

[Mysteryman]

Agreed.
What was the other 2D movie to make a billion?

 

[metaphysician]

Thing about Skyfall is: it was being released on the landmark 50th anniversary off the first film Dr. No, the previous two Daniel Craig Bond films struck BO gold, the reviews were very strong, and the fact that it made over $1 billion was special not just for the franchise, but for 2D movies. There were four movies that made $1 billion last year and two of them weren't in 3D and were released in IMAX(TDKR and Skyfall).

Point I'm making here is, it's not impossible for MOS to break $1 billion, but it'll need to overcome a lot of obstacles in order to do that. I'm sticking to anywhere from $650 million-700 million.

Don't forget that James Bond is an icon in his own right. This is not "some random franchise made a billion, ergo Superman should too," its "one of the biggest iconic franchises ever made a billion, ergo Superman should too." Which, since Superman has had more movies that are terrible and didn't go over well than not. . .

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Agreed.
What was the other 2D movien to make a billion?

That came out last year you mean? The Dark Knight Rises.

 

[Mysteryman]

Oh silly me, I should have remembered that.
Of course it was TDKR.

 

[Excel]

Out of all the big Summer blockbuster coming out this Summer, After Earth, World War Z, and Lone Ranger are the most likely to flop.

LR will do best of all 3,but yes, all will likely be deemed disappointments.

 

[Tobias]

Don't forget that James Bond is an icon in his own right. This is not "some random franchise made a billion, ergo Superman should too," its "one of the biggest iconic franchises ever made a billion, ergo Superman should too." Which, since Superman has had more movies that are terrible and didn't go over well than not. . .

Exactly! Bond is a perpetual franchise like Batman. There are no others yet - Ironman still has to prove it can go on for decades with film after film. Comparing Bond's performance to what MOS or other films might do is like comparing apples and oranges.

Making a billion WW is not easy. TASM didn't do it and neither did Thor or Cap. Few films reach that goal. It's crazy IMO to suggest MOS can even come close.

Superman historically does better in the US than OS markets. Look at SR.

To make a billion almost always means a huge OS take. As Ironman is doing. It will make way more overseas. As Batman did.

Superman does not have that kind of appeal OS or hasn't and there is nothing to suggest that has changed.

What is different is the OS market is larger now than even in 2006. So I am guessing MOS does better OS than in the US. But not by a lot.

I think if MOS is to make 600 million WW it will take the OS market to make that happen.

260 domestic, 340 OS.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Batman also historically did more domestically than overseas, until the Dark Knight Rises. The overseas market has completely exploded these past five years. Heck, the differences in the overseas market in 2006 (the year of Superman Returns) and 2013 is ginormous.

 

[Mysteryman]

Exactly! Bond is a perpetual franchise like Batman. There are no others yet - Ironman still has to prove it can go on for decades with film after film. Comparing Bond's performance to what MOS or other films might do is like comparing apples and oranges.

Making a billion WW is not easy. TASM didn't do it and neither did Thor or Cap. Few films reach that goal. It's crazy IMO to suggest MOS can even come close.

Superman historically does better in the US than OS markets. Look at SR.

To make a billion almost always means a huge OS take. As Ironman is doing. It will make way more overseas. As Batman did.

Superman does not have that kind of appeal OS or hasn't and there is nothing to suggest that has changed.

What is different is the OS market is larger now than even in 2006. So I am guessing MOS does better OS than in the US. But not by a lot.

I think if MOS is to make 600 million WW it will take the OS market to make that happen.

260 domestic, 340 OS.

Since there has not been a Superman film
Since the overseas market has exploded, we have no way of knowing how MOS will do in the CURRENT overseas box office climate.

 

[Tobias]

Since there has not been a Superman film
Since the overseas market has exploded, we have no way of knowing how MOS will do in the CURRENT overseas box office climate.

The fact that the OS market is larger than 2006 is why I think MOS's OS numbers will be somewhat larger than it's domestic numbers. The current market is different but I think it's safe to say it does quite a bit less than TASM OS which is a recent release and probably serves as an indicator.

 

[Notrip]

TASM isn't a good film to go off of though. One reason is the backlash that it received from many of the fans/critics (although some enjoyed it, it was just above average) and its relative closeness to the original trilogy, 5 years later and about 11 years after the original origin story. So I don't think it is safe to say quite a bit less.

 

[moviefreak]

It might be interesting to some of you toknow that Superman 1978 was number 1 at the U.S. box office for 10 weeks (7 consecutive).

US box office:

Superman Returns ~ 1 week.

The Avenger 3 weeks

Iron Man 2 weeks

Burton Batman 2 weeks

Batman Begins 2 weeks

For recent reference:

Titanic 15 consecutive weeks from Dec 1997 to April 1998.

I do not expect any movie to have a run of 3 weeks or more as so many of them are front loaded, Iron Man 3 being the latest(so far) to be too front loaded. I hope that MOS last as long as 3 weeks.