Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[elgaz]

I'm a zombie fan and love Walking Dead, but I have no huge desire to go see WWZ to be honest. It's getting to the stage where you question what they can really bring to the zombie genre which is new and refreshing.

MOS on the other hand .................... Superman films don't come along very often, and definitely not new ones which are a total reboot of the franchise. I can see WWZ suffering, even with Pitt in it. I love Pitt as an actor but whether he's actually a huge box-office draw is up for contention; I don't see the guy headlining films on his own which have the same kind of impact as say Tom Cruise, or Will Smith back in the day.

Forgetting reviews and analysis, word of mouth counts for an awful lot too. If WWZ stinks and MOS doesn't, I'd expect MOS to be strong in week 2 and even week 3.

 

[GreenKToo]

Yes it is. Taking Excel's numbers out a 100 million opening ends up with about 275 - 280 million domestic take. This is why the OS box is going to be key. It needs to outperform the domestic box significantly to reach 600 million WW.

Excel didnt say it would open with a 100 mill. he said......

''TOTAL OPENING WEEKEND
Man of Steel opens to a large $145 million, shattering the June opening weekend record and making WB mess their pants around the globe. Everybody in the country is now aware that MAN OF STEEL is the break out of the summer, and with no big films remaining to garner mass excitement, everyone begins making plans to see it (or see it again''

I'm not saying I agree or disagree, but get it right if you're gonna use what he said.

 

[Tobias]

Exactly. Like I said, it could be a very special film and hit big, or, it could just do ok ( ok being 275 dom ). Not likely tho.
I'm leaning towards something special. It has that feel about it, all the bells and whistles.
I dont think it will break any records but I do think it will make plenty for sequels and more, and it will do it easily.

Funny, my domestic estimate is 275 million. And my hope/desire is for at least 325 million OS. Supes has never done better OS than in the US unlike most other superheroes so that is a worry.

Cavill is a stud (infamous for his rear end) but Routh was a stud too and women didn't flock to SR. One factor may have been Devil Wears Prada which opened with SR and which the women loved. That film actually ended up making more on DVD than did SR.

MOS doesn't have that competition so we'll see if they turn out for Cavill. The guy is a charmer no doubt. Supposedly the object of not a few man-crushes so that should help too.

 

[Tobias]

Excel didnt say it would open with a 100 mill. he said......

''TOTAL OPENING WEEKEND
Man of Steel opens to a large $145 million, shattering the June opening weekend record and making WB mess their pants around the globe. Everybody in the country is now aware that MAN OF STEEL is the break out of the summer, and with no big films remaining to garner mass excitement, everyone begins making plans to see it (or see it again''

I'm not saying I agree or disagree, but get it right if you're gonna use what he said.

Sorry if I wasn't clear. I said I took Excel's numbers but adjusted them based on a 100 million opening weekend. The range I am seeing for OW is 80 - 120 so 100 million is right in the middle. Mea culpa.

 

[GreenKToo]

If WB floods the TV world with several spots over the next month, and releases another trailer, it will do fine. Even without another trailer I think it will do just fine.
By now, most should know about it anyway.

 

[GreenKToo]

Sorry if I wasn't clear. I said I took Excel's numbers but adjusted them based on a 100 million opening weekend. The range I am seeing for OW is 80 - 120 so 100 million is right in the middle. Mea culpa.

Ahhh ok then, my bad.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

No way World War Z becomes a hit(and I'm a big fan of the novel). Production issues, problems with the script to the point that Damon Lindelof had to be brought in to re-write the third act and an insane rumored budget of $190 million. And supposedly, according to Variety, it needs to break $400 million worldwide to be considered a hit.

 

[DaRkVeNgeanCe]

World War Z looks awful I don't see it becoming a hit.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

I see Lone Ranger doing better than WWZ, TBH. And that movie is another potential flop.

 

[restlessdreams]

I don't think WWZ is going to be a hit I'm not saying that but you do have to say that if WWZ wasn't being released the week after MOS would have a much better second weekend. Even if WWZ opens up with maybe 25 million that's 25 million that could have been split between MU and MOS. Still I just hope WB has a realistic exception for MOS it's not going to make Dark Knight money. Below are the worldwide total gross for each batman movie.

Batman Begins $374,218,673
The Dark Knight 1,004,558,444
The Dark Knight Rises $1,084,439,099

BTW I can't believe Batman Begins only made 374 million.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Both Lone Ranger and World War Z will flop.

 

[Kane52630]

It's almost if you guys went to the future and came back to spread the news.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Out of all the big Summer blockbuster coming out this Summer, After Earth, World War Z, and Lone Ranger are the most likely to flop.

 

[terry78]

Both Lone Ranger and World War Z will flop.

I'll take that bet. I just have this weird feeling about those two...can't really predict what is going on.

 

[Tobias]

I don't think WWZ is going to be a hit I'm not saying that but you do have to say that if WWZ wasn't being released the week after MOS would have a much better second weekend. Even if WWZ opens up with maybe 25 million that's 25 million that could have been split between MU and MOS. Still I just hope WB has a realistic exception for MOS it's not going to make Dark Knight money. Below are the worldwide total gross for each batman movie.

Batman Begins $374,218,673
The Dark Knight 1,004,558,444
The Dark Knight Rises $1,084,439,099

BTW I can't believe Batman Begins only made 374 million.

It seems like WB is expecting 600 million at least to move forward with JL or an MOS sequel. I don't think they or anyone is expecting anything close to a billion. The most optimistic figure I've seen is 700 million plus. Not realistic IMO. I think, I hope, WB will settle for 600 million. It's going to be tough for MOS to do 600 million but not impossible.

 

[Hyde]

World War Z will flop, definitely. It's sad because I never want to see a film flop, and I'd feel bad for Paramount, but there's literally no public interest for this movie whatsoever. At my school right now everyone's talking about (well, asking me) Iron Man 3 and Man of Steel.

$600-700m is what I'm certain it'll get to, but I wouldn't be surprised if it went a little over

 

[TheNextNolan22]

World War Z will flop, definitely. It's sad because I never want to see a film flop, and I'd feel bad for Paramount, but there's literally no public interest for this movie whatsoever. At my school right now everyone's talking about (well, asking me) Iron Man 3 and Man of Steel.

$600-700m is what I'm certain it'll get to, but I wouldn't be surprised if it went a little over

At my school, the general interest as far as 2013 Summer movies goes are Iron Man 3, Man Of Steel, Star Trek: Into Darkness, Fast and Furious 6, Hangover III, Monster University, and Pacific Rim. Some of my friends even goes as far as to calling WWZ an expensive, poor man's Walking Dead.

 

[GreenKToo]

WWZ and TLR are DvD viewings for me. ( maybe )
I will see MoS, ST, and possibily PR.
Depending on how good MoS is, I plan on seeing it several times.

 

[Hyde]

At my school, the general interest as far as 2013 Summer movies goes are Iron Man 3, Man Of Steel, Stark Trek: Into Darkness, Fast and Furious 6, Hangover III, Monster University, and Pacific Rim. Some of my friends even goes as far as to calling WWZ an expensive, poor man's Walking Dead.

Really? Monsters University is being talked about I guess but not as frequently, and I agree with the WWZ statement lol.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Really? Monsters University is being talked about I guess but not as frequently, and I agree with the WWZ statement lol.

Well, all the girls at my school that I know at least. Definitely not getting talked about as frequently.

 

[Hyde]

Well, all the girls at my school that I know at least. Definitely not getting talked about as frequently.

Same I think.

Most guys I know are like 'ASDFGJ IRON MAN 3 SAJQFRGTH MAN OF STEEL' at the moment, but the girls aren't really talking about the latter.

 

[Notrip]

Star Trek weekend Domestic numbers will take a hit now that it is officially opening on Thursday with special IMAX showings on WED. I'm guessing 82 million now instead of 100 million. FF6 4 day holiday 105/Hangover III 98. MOS numbers are hard to guess at this point. Can it do the unthinkable and push 140+ or does it suffer from being a reboot and do 70ish million.

as of today I predict MOS 122/2nd weekend 62 million

subject to change at any moment

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Star Trek weekend Domestic numbers will take a hit now that it is officially opening on Thursday with special IMAX showings on WED. I'm guessing 82 million now instead of 100 million. FF6 4 day holiday 105/Hangover III 98. MOS numbers are hard to guess at this point. Can it do the unthinkable and push 140+ or does it suffer from being a reboot and do 70ish million.

as of today I predict MOS 122/2nd weekend 62 million

subject to change at any moment

Thinking about $85 million for STID now...

 

[Tobias]

Star Trek weekend Domestic numbers will take a hit now that it is officially opening on Thursday with special IMAX showings on WED. I'm guessing 82 million now instead of 100 million. FF6 4 day holiday 105/Hangover III 98. MOS numbers are hard to guess at this point. Can it do the unthinkable and push 140+ or does it suffer from being a reboot and do 70ish million.

as of today I predict MOS 122/2nd weekend 62 million

subject to change at any moment

Agree MOS OW is very hard to call. I've heard anywhere from 75 million to 125 million on various sites. Huge disparity. This film could go either way. It's all a guess now when you have this kind of volatility. I am thinking 90 million.

 

[Notrip]

Thinking about $85 million for STID now...

something like that. I am thinking about passing on it the first weekend, just because I know my wife will want to see Great Gatsby that weekend.


Tobias, yeah 90 million is the safe bet, but the way the social media and networks like twitter, youtube and such have been going I think anything under 100 million will be a slight disappointment for WB. It depends on how good the movie is and close tracking numbers to get a real estimate.

I remember the Hunger Games being estimated around 90-110 million and it blew up too 150ish/400 domestic. hope that happens with MOS!