Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Skrilla31]

Man Of Steel is gonna be #1 for more than a month. Mark my words. I don't think people realize how big this thing is gonna be. The marketing for this movie hasn't even been extremely heavy and it's already probably one of the most anticipated movies of the summer. Wait til people actually SEE it. The word of mouth is gonna be ridiculous.

Zach Snyder made that comment about DC's heroes being more important and he wasn't kidding cause it's true. Superman and Batman aren't just superheroes they're american archetypes. To tell the story of them is to tell the story of us. People will gravitate more towards a great Superman movie than they will a great Iron Man movie because he MEANS more. Batman Begins didn't do great was because the public wasn't sure what to think yet. Once they saw Begins and they knew what they were in store for, the next two Batman movies each made a billion. If WB got Superman right then people are going to come in droves. They came out for Batman so they will come out for Superman. There is no unfamiliarity anymore. This has Nolan's name on it. No one is confused about what they're going to get. Where it goes now will be on the strength of the film.

And judging from the studio's attitude so far... they REALLY don't look worried about it. Trust me fellas this thing is going to splash big.

 

[Liam_H]

The movie is gonna have good legs but for more than a month? There's a good chance Monsters University takes that spot the week after.

 

[GreenKToo]

Like u said Skrilla, BB was a reboot and the public wasnt sure about it. the same may be said about mos too. we just dnt know yet.

 

[Skrilla31]

The movie is gonna have good legs but for more than a month? There's a good chance Monsters University takes that spot the week after.

Okay maybe not a month. Several weeks is more like it.

Nope, Monsters University ain't gonna do it. All the people who didn't see Superman the first week are gonna go the second week after everyone they know tells them they gotta go see it.

 

[Skrilla31]

Like u said Skrilla, BB was a reboot and the public wasnt sure about it. the same may be said about mos too. we just dnt know yet.

That's why WB plastered Nolan all over it and referenced the Dark Knight Trilogy. In other words "ATTENTION PEOPLE! IF YOU LIKED THE BATMAN MOVIES THEY ARE BEING MADE BY THE SAME PEOPLE! YOU WILL PROBABLY LIKE THIS TOO!"

Everyone knows what this movie is going in.

 

[\S/JcDc\S/]

Bottom line. If you are a Superman fan that has been following production starts and failures and restarts, etc... There is some skepticism in terms of box office performance potential. I'd say most of us are leaning towards a 600 million worldwide number as optimistic and good enough for sequel/even affect on JL movie possibly. Newer fans who haven't put up with the same bs may be less jaded and willing to put more hope into the idea of it being blockbuster like an Iron Man movie. Hey, I wouldn't mind it being blockbuster but it's hard for me to get that feeling no matter how good it looks! I hope it outperforms expectations but I'd rather keep a lower expectation for the time being and just hope it is a decent hit that warrants future films.

 

[Liam_H]

Well the first Iron Man did do around $600 million WW.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

I'm certain it will be big! How big is yet to be seen.

 

[Mysteryman]

I'm certain it will be big! How big is yet to be seen.

Exactly.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

Bottom line. If you are a Superman fan that has been following production starts and failures and restarts, etc... There is some skepticism in terms of box office performance potential. I'd say most of us are leaning towards a 600 million worldwide number as optimistic and good enough for sequel/even affect on JL movie possibly. Newer fans who haven't put up with the same bs may be less jaded and willing to put more hope into the idea of it being blockbuster like an Iron Man movie. Hey, I wouldn't mind it being blockbuster but it's hard for me to get that feeling no matter how good it looks! I hope it outperforms expectations but I'd rather keep a lower expectation for the time being and just hope it is a decent hit that warrants future films.

I'm in this line. I am incredibly excited for the movie but also very cautious of being too jazzed for it. That's with its box office and critical success in mind. It seems to be a prevailing attitude; that of cautious optimism. Not because of what we have seen of the film (which is amazing), but because I think general audiences felt a bit duped by Returns. I know I was, and I didn't hate it. It just wasn't what I thought a modern Superman film should be.

I've seen enough wildly varying opinions on MOS potential box-office that I'm sufficiently confused on what to think it will make. I understand we want this film to be huge, but I think a $95m OW is pretty successful for a "dead" film franchise. If it makes $300m at domestic, I'll be thrilled. Iron Man is a good benchmark for MOS, even if it did come out 5 years ago. Like Batman Begins, I just hope its successful enough both financially and artistically that a sequel is demanded.

 

[Liam_H]

$300 million domestic is a great number. With that a sequel is guaranteed, even if it underwhelms overseas.

 

[Micromind]

Overseas marketing campaign will have to be a lot stronger than TDK movies, if MOS needs success there.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

I'm in this line. I am incredibly excited for the movie but also very cautious of being too jazzed for it. That's with its box office and critical success in mind. It seems to be a prevailing attitude; that of cautious optimism. Not because of what we have seen of the film (which is amazing), but because I think general audiences felt a bit duped by Returns. I know I was, and I didn't hate it. It just wasn't what I thought a modern Superman film should be.

I've seen enough wildly varying opinions on MOS potential box-office that I'm sufficiently confused on what to think it will make. I understand we want this film to be huge, but I think a $95m OW is pretty successful for a "dead" film franchise. If it makes $300m at domestic, I'll be thrilled. Iron Man is a good benchmark for MOS, even if it did come out 5 years ago. Like Batman Begins, I just hope its successful enough both financially and artistically that a sequel is demanded.

I'm one of the optmists here, but I'd also be fine with a successful enough beginning. I only want it to be a great movie, and if it makes a lot of extra money, it's even better.

 

[Tyrone Parker]

This is going to be huge, over 400 mil doms. 1 bil ww

SR was still in the Donnerverse that was created in the 70s and the movie felt like too.

MOS will be what Superman fans have waiting all this time for and the GA is getting a CMB movie that is more than just Marvel popcorn fare. That will add to repeat viewings and give this movie some great legs.

 

[matrix_ghost]

I'm a realist not an optimist so i'll put my predictions at Dom 300 million and WW 600-800 million .
It depends on how this movie plays in all quadrants.
Look at Avengers. Before the movie came out , many sites had predictions of around 300 million domestic. As the movie came closer and closer to it's release date reports surfaced that it played well on all 4 quadrants hence why the movie did so extremely well.
Hopefully this does the same.
I do hope for this movie to make 400 million domestic though. Really am hoping for it t:

 

[GreenKToo]

yeah. I think this will be similar to a BB. good wom, a good BO, even better DVD sales, which will lead on to a killer sequel, ala TdK.
I think ( as of now ) any where from 95/110 mill ow
285 all they way up to 315 dom,
for a total of 600/635 mill.

that said, im not ruling out more, alot more. we'll see once the release date gets closer.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

I feel optimist too. I think that MOS will end between 250m and 300m in the US and above 600 overseas.
I have some doubts about the "adjusted for inflation" game. It can work for Donner's Superman to understand the success of that movie in 1978, but not for SR. The perception of the 200m of SR was totally different from a box office of 240m today. In 2006 a 200m movie was considered barely successful, while 240m is considered a more than decent result in 2006, but even in 2013.

 

[Tobias]

I'm in this line. I am incredibly excited for the movie but also very cautious of being too jazzed for it. That's with its box office and critical success in mind. It seems to be a prevailing attitude; that of cautious optimism. Not because of what we have seen of the film (which is amazing), but because I think general audiences felt a bit duped by Returns. I know I was, and I didn't hate it. It just wasn't what I thought a modern Superman film should be.

I've seen enough wildly varying opinions on MOS potential box-office that I'm sufficiently confused on what to think it will make. I understand we want this film to be huge, but I think a $95m OW is pretty successful for a "dead" film franchise. If it makes $300m at domestic, I'll be thrilled. Iron Man is a good benchmark for MOS, even if it did come out 5 years ago. Like Batman Begins, I just hope its successful enough both financially and artistically that a sequel is demanded.

The estimates do vary so much it is hard to say.

OW estimates from 80 - 120 million. 100 million is in the middle but I think that is too high. More like 90/95 OW. That would make it hard to hit 300 million domestic. I think MOS needs a strong OW number to hit the 600 million it needs to make.

 

[moviefreak]

Hollywood Risks Glut This Summer:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324582004578459133431601360.html

quote from this article:

Starting with Walt Disney Co.'s "Iron Man 3" this weekend, major studios are poised to release about 22 big-budget movies this summer, including sequels, costly action-adventure movies and animated movies, most with production budgets of well over $100 million. Last year there were 15, and for each of the three summers before that there were between 12 and 15.

Hollywood executives hope the blizzard of event films will lift what has been so far an anemic year for the industry, with domestic box-office receipts and attendance down 12% from the prior year, according to Hollywood.com.

Attendance is down 12% from last year. Hopefully this does not affect MOS attendance. The article also goes on to state that the executives are taking increasing risk in scheduling a big budget film too close to rival studio's big budget fare.

"It's a scary summer because it's like walking through the Himalayas when I see the gigantic movies coming in," said Michael Lynton, chief executive of Sony Pictures Entertainment, at the Milken Institute Global Conference this week.

I have a feeling that 2014 and 2015 will see more drop off in box office attendance.

 

[Iceman]

Bottom line. If you are a Superman fan that has been following production starts and failures and restarts, etc... There is some skepticism in terms of box office performance potential. I'd say most of us are leaning towards a 600 million worldwide number as optimistic and good enough for sequel/even affect on JL movie possibly. Newer fans who haven't put up with the same bs may be less jaded and willing to put more hope into the idea of it being blockbuster like an Iron Man movie. Hey, I wouldn't mind it being blockbuster but it's hard for me to get that feeling no matter how good it looks! I hope it outperforms expectations but I'd rather keep a lower expectation for the time being and just hope it is a decent hit that warrants future films.

$300 million domestic is a great number. With that a sequel is guaranteed, even if it underwhelms overseas.

$300m domestic will be a good result. Hopefully worldwide is more than $600m though.

 

[Iceman]

Hollywood Risks Glut This Summer:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324582004578459133431601360.html

quote from this article:
Attendance is down 12% from last year. Hopefully this does not affect MOS attendance. The article also goes on to state that the executives are taking increasing risk in scheduling a big budget film too close to rival studio's big budget fare.

I have a feeling that 2014 and 2015 will see more drop off in box office attendance.

2015 could be big if all the suggested huge films make it for that year. And I'm sure I read an article about an upcoming Hollywood glut every year.

 

[chiefchirpa]

I have a feeling that 2014 and 2015 will see more drop off in box office attendance.

More like zero sum game. Those like Avengers 2 who place themselves at the beginning of the season and have big names will reap big, the smaller rest will get the scrap.

 

[Tobias]

More like zero sum game. Those like Avengers 2 who place themselves at the beginning of the season and have big names will reap big, the smaller rest will get the scrap.

Unfortunately, MOS is debuting in June. Historically the lowest in terms of box, of May, June and July. Dunno what WB was thinking. It should have been scheduled as Pacific Rim was.

It's right in the middle of all these blockbusters. MU and Z will likely take a big ding out of MOS week 2. It could drop 60% or more - hope not though.

How much the poor scheduling hurts MOS we'll know come late June.

 

[Rhonimus]

so tough to call this .. i think that a US OW of 100+ will push it over 600m ww .. hoping for 700+ ww which would be huge for a 1st out reboot ..

what i DO know is this .. it's very seldom that i've felt giddy with excitement over a movie .. i can count 'em on one & 1/2 hands: Empire, T2, ID4, Phantom Menace, SM1, TDK .. & i feel this with MoS to an elevated degree .. all those others went big .. so holdin' thumbs

 

[moviefreak]

More like zero sum game. Those like Avengers 2 who place themselves at the beginning of the season and have big names will reap big, the smaller rest will get the scrap.

That's true, at least most of the big budget films (> 150mil) will be heavily front loaded to such point that the studio could recover more than half of the production cost.

However falling attendance will impact all movie. Be prepare for increase in ticket price and 3D price increase. US cinema attendance have been in steady decline, but the foreign box office seems to be in upswing.

This article from 2011 attempted to explain it:

http://www.whitehutchinson.com/leisure/articles/DecliningCinemaAttendance.shtml