Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Not really. It was always going to open huge and always going to beat The Hangover Part III.

I have no idea why Warners didn't blink. Hangover 3 always had zero chance of beating FF6 this weekend.

I still think The Heat is going to be the highest grossing comedy domestically.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Pacific Rim should be a huge hit too, it's tracking pretty well when it's only releasing in July and has no established universe or no real "stars". Slap the last trailer just before MOS, and Legendary/WB will be printing money in no time.

Best to keep your expectations in check. It's not going to be a huge hit stateside. Maybe overseas.

 

[robot]

^ I'll be a happy camper when they announce the OW to be above $200 M!!!

 

[Sup3rman81]

Hobbit
IM3
HG
MU
PR
Thor or MOS
Thor or MOS
Hangover3

From some of your posts it seems you want this movie to succeed and some say you want it to fail. But saying MOS will be the 6th or 7th movie of the year shows you want it to fail. No Superman fan would show such lack of support. You got it scraping the bottom with Hangover 3 and that won't ever happen

 

[Tobias]

From some of your posts it seems you want this movie to succeed and some say you want it to fail. But saying MOS will be the 6th or 7th movie of the year shows you want it to fail. No Superman fan would show such lack of support. You got it scraping the bottom with Hangover 3 and that won't ever happen

What I wish and what is reality are two different things.

I'd like it to be #2. It won't be IMO. Thor is the sleeper this summer if there is one.

MOS looks great. The film that should have been in 2006. But it has headwinds. Pacific Rim is getting OS promotion by WB, MOS not so much. That could make the difference to vault PR over MOS.

 

[ConnorKon-El]

Not really. It was always going to open huge and always going to beat The Hangover Part III.

Why WB didn't try and move Hangover 3 to a later or earlier date beats me.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Stupidity, arrogance, take your pick.

 

[Liam_H]

What I wish and what is reality are two different things.

I'd like it to be #2. It won't be IMO. Thor is the sleeper this summer if there is one.

MOS looks great. The film that should have been in 2006. But it has headwinds. Pacific Rim is getting OS promotion by WB, MOS not so much. That could make the difference to vault PR over MOS.

Not coming out till Fall.

 

[Tobias]

Man of Steel OW is a wild card for sure. I have seen many predictions and tracking numbers. It could do anywhere from 85-145 OW. Nobody knows, heck it could blow up and do 60 million more than people realized similar to Avengers. I mean 155-165 and it did 50 million more! so 125 could turn into 175 or 85. Still think less than 100 million OW would be shocking to me at this point, especially since it will be Fathers Day weekend and MOS plays on that very well. Trust me when I say, WB thought of that when they moved this movie.

Yeah, tracking anywhere from 85 - 145 OW says one thing. There is no real methodology these firms are using. It more of a guess. If they was a methodology that had a real basis in predicting it wouldn't give you a massive range like the tracking numbers are.

Just look at the huge misses on Gatsby and STID. Off by 30%. The funny thing is that these tracking firms seem to be taken seriously when their guesses are no better than ours.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I wish Thor good luck in going up against Catching Fire.

Anyway, I'm thinking 90ish mil opening for MOS now. I might predict over 100mil a few days from it being released.

I know one thing if the movie opens with 130mil like some think then it isn't ending under 360ish million total. I don't know how anyone can predict such an opening weekend and not think it has a good shot at 400mil domestic. It's disingenuous to predict such numbers for the opening weekend and not believe that. If the movie opens with those kinds of numbers I'm going to be thinking 400mil.

 

[DKDetective]

I wish Thor good luck in going up against Catching Fire.

Different audiences. Breaking Dawn didn't hurt Skyfall one bit.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Different audiences. Breaking Dawn didn't hurt Skyfall one bit.

Hunger Games isn't Twilight.

 

[Tobias]

I wish Thor good luck in going up against Catching Fire.

Anyway, I'm thinking 90ish mil opening for MOS now. I might predict over 100mil a few days from it being released.

I know one thing if the movie opens with 130mil like some think then it isn't ending under 360ish million total. I don't know how anyone can predict such an opening weekend and not think it has a good shot at 400mil domestic. It's disingenuous to predict such numbers for the opening weekend and not believe that. If the movie opens with those kinds of numbers I'm going to be thinking 400mil.

Throwing out the tracking prediction of 125 million - which they sometimes turn around and say is too high - leaves a realistic range of tracking from 85 - 108 OW. The 108 comes from boxoffice.com.

Halving that range puts the OW at 94/95 which is what seems to be the best bet right now. With good WOM and a 2.5 plus multiplier that opening can take MOS to a final 250 plus million domestic take.

 

[DKDetective]

Hunger Games isn't Twilight.

Young adult genre fiction aimed at a female audiences where fangirls divide into "teams" to root for which suitor the female protagonist should end with in the end and have his babies... Hrmm, sounds pretty similar to me.

 

[Liam_H]

I know one thing if the movie opens with 130mil like some think then it isn't ending under 360ish million total. I don't know how anyone can predict such an opening weekend and not think it has a good shot at 400mil domestic. It's disingenuous to predict such numbers for the opening weekend and not believe that. If the movie opens with those kinds of numbers I'm going to be thinking 400mil.

Because the higher the opening the more demand has been off burned leading to a lower OW multiplier? Most movies that open above $100 million in a 3 day weekend don't get that 3x OW multiplier.

 

[Greeneyes]

From some of your posts it seems you want this movie to succeed and some say you want it to fail. But saying MOS will be the 6th or 7th movie of the year shows you want it to fail. No Superman fan would show such lack of support. You got it scraping the bottom with Hangover 3 and that won't ever happen

Glad some others are starting to see what I've witnessed for years. He wants Superman to fail and disappear. I spent half an hour reading his posts from when he joined and if you want me to multi quote about 30 of them that repeatedly say that the franchise is dead,Superman is gone and kaput etc,he wants a Justice League without Supes in it,and all this from a 'big fan' of Superman.

One who never goes on other Superman threads in the forum? and one who only uses the box office thread because he is ever hopeful to see signs that MOS is not going to do well,which will lead to his repeated theory that Supes is not popular anymore and a second tier character who is not as big or as popular as Thor or Conan! I am getting on Tobias case a bit,but I don't like how he refuses to admit he has been banned from other Superman sites in the past for doing a not so subtle version of what he is subtly doing here,and he refuses to admit that he wants Superman to fail. Just be honest Tobias?

This place is awesome and so is Superman! He wont be going away any time soon unfortunately for you Tobias,you were also telling everybody repeatedly how Superman would totally vanish from all mediums for at least ten years after MOS comes out due to the legal battle! That has been proven wrong also.t:

This film will do well enough financially to get further films made,be that sequels,WF or JL. And it may just be bigger than a lot of people think. A symbol of hope and light with something for audiences to cheer for at a time when the world needs that hero and that hope,may well boost it considerably.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Young adult genre fiction aimed at a female audiences where fangirls divide into "teams" to root for which suitor the female protagonist should end with in the end and have his babies... Hrmm, sounds pretty similar to me.

The Hunger Games has a bigger male audience than Twilight and it's first film at least got pretty decent reviews, unlike Twilight. And I have nothing against Stewart (or Twilight for that matter) but Lawrence is already a bigger more well liked, more will respected star than she is.

They aren't the same thing and Thor damn sure isn't James Bond.

Why do these boards like to dismiss anything that doesn't appeal 60% to men?

 

[Juha Bach]

Yeah, tracking anywhere from 85 - 145 OW says one thing. There is no real methodology these firms are using. It more of a guess. If they was a methodology that had a real basis in predicting it wouldn't give you a massive range like the tracking numbers are.

Just look at the huge misses on Gatsby and STID. Off by 30%. The funny thing is that these tracking firms seem to be taken seriously when their guesses are no better than ours.

BTC projected an opening weekend of 75 million for STID to the shock of many, that most posters like what your doing, in box office forums questioned its methodology. I have been following BTC's tracking record this year and i can say it been stellar. The only movie they missed was Gatby and it was not huge. So at least for me when they post their trackings, i dont consider them to be guesses.

 

[DKDetective]

The Hunger Games has a bigger male audience than Twilight and it's first film at least got pretty decent reviews, unlike Twilight. And I have nothing against Stewart (or Twilight for that matter) but Lawrence is already a bigger more well liked, more will respected star than she is.

They aren't the same thing and Thor damn sure isn't James Bond.

Why do these boards like to dismiss anything that doesn't appeal 60% to men?

I was just joshing you a bit. Of course, it is not a perfect analogy, but it is a largely similar situation in terms of the films' respective draws. Hunger Games may have gotten better reviews, but it was still a pretty weak film. It felt like a Cliffs Notes of the book instead of a proper adaptation. Of course Jennifer Lawrence is a draw, but I think you are overstating the series' male audience. I don't know a single guy who went to see the movie on his own accord and wasn't dragged there on a date or by a girlfriend or wife. I still think they can peacefully co-exist at the Box Office, especially since the overall events of the book mimic the first one so much. To the general audience, it will just look like Katniss has to compete in the Hunger Games again, but against tougher people this time and that will limit its appeal.

 

[sup101]

Glad some others are starting to see what I've witnessed for years. He wants Superman to fail and disappear. I spent half an hour reading his posts from when he joined and if you want me to multi quote about 30 of them that repeatedly say that the franchise is dead,Superman is gone and kaput etc,he wants a Justice League without Supes in it,and all this from a 'big fan' of Superman.

One who never goes on other Superman threads in the forum? and one who only uses the box office thread because he is ever hopeful to see signs that MOS is not going to do well,which will lead to his repeated theory that Supes is not popular anymore and a second tier character who is not as big or as popular as Thor or Conan! I am getting on Tobias case a bit,but I don't like how he refuses to admit he has been banned from other Superman sites in the past for doing a not so subtle version of what he is subtly doing here,and he refuses to admit that he wants Superman to fail. Just be honest Tobias?

This place is awesome and so is Superman! He wont be going away any time soon unfortunately for you Tobias,you were also telling everybody repeatedly how Superman would totally vanish from all mediums for at least ten years after MOS comes out due to the legal battle! That has been proven wrong also.t:

This film will do well enough financially to get further films made,be that sequels,WF or JL. And it may just be bigger than a lot of people think. A symbol of hope and light with something for audiences to cheer for at a time when the world needs that hero and that hope,may well boost it considerably.

He trolling.

 

[Tobias]

BTC projected an opening weekend of 75 million for STID to the shock of many, that most posters like what your doing, in box office forums questioned its methodology. I have been following BTC's tracking record this year and i can say it been stellar. The only movie they missed was Gatby and it was not huge. So at least for me when they post their trackings, i dont consider them to be guesses.

Apparently there are different methodologies then as the others missed big. And BOM and Guru went with the others and not BTC.

Let's see how they do this weekend. Do they make money off of their tracking predictions?

I did read a post saying some tracking firms are upping their numbers cause of understating the Marvel films in recent years.

I'd assume the tracking numbers would close together in the last week but apparently not with STID and BTC remained the outlier - and the one who got I right.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I was just joshing you a bit. Of course, it is not a perfect analogy, but it is a largely similar situation in terms of the films' respective draws. Hunger Games may have gotten better reviews, but it was still a pretty weak film. It felt like a Cliffs Notes of the book instead of a proper adaptation. Of course Jennifer Lawrence is a draw, but I think you are overstating the series' male audience. I don't know a single guy who went to see the movie on his own accord and wasn't dragged there on a date or by a girlfriend or wife. I still think they can peacefully co-exist at the Box Office, especially since the overall events of the book mimic the first one so much. To the general audience, it will just look like Katniss has to compete in the Hunger Games again, but against tougher people this time and that will limit its appeal.

I don't know anyone who liked Thor a lot or at all really, it got okayish (they weren't as good as Games reviews) reviews and I thought it was a pretty mediocre film. Even Captain America far outsold it on DVD. The Avengers should help it overcome a mediocre first film but it's not doing Iron Man 3 numbers.

 

[DKDetective]

I don't know anyone who liked Thor a lot, it got okayish reviews and I thought it was a pretty mediocre film. Even Captain America far outsold it on DVD. The Avengers should help it overcome a mediocre first film but it's not doing Iron Man 3 numbers.

Yeah, but it's not just a Thor movie. It is a follow-up to the Avengers featuring its beloved villain Loki. Moreover, Marvel has really seemed to up the budget this time, so it will be sold as a big action adventure movie that scratches an itch for CGI superhero antics that Hunger Games can't, at least not really.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yeah, but it's not just a Thor movie. It is a follow-up to the Avengers featuring its beloved villain Loki. Moreover, Marvel has really seemed to up the budget this time, so it will be sold as a big action adventure movie that scratches an itch for CGI superhero antics that Hunger Games can't, at least not really.

I'm glad not every film is a comicbook movie. Whatever one's thoughts on Hunger Games, it's a good thing that not all blockbusters are comicbook films or are starring men.

 

[DKDetective]

I'm glad not every film is a comicbook movie. Whatever one's thoughts on Hunger Games, it's a good thing that not all blockbusters are comicbook films or are starring men.

You'll find no argument from me on that point.

I was just trying to point out that blockbusters with difference core audiences can easily coexist in the winter months. Both Skyfall and Breaking Dawn made a lot of money.