Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Sup3rman81]

there is no way this movie makes less than 300m domestic. If it does then its a bust, IM 3 would have made more here but its a very bland movie. The twist killed any momentum it had for repeat viewing from most of the die hard fans and comic book fans. Plus the story was weak and the most we saw Tony in the suit was a total of about 30 mins. Same story with TDK, more Bruce than Batman. But I just cant see MOS making less that really 400m domestic 375 at the lowest

 

[robot]

hobbit, IM3, MoS or MU, PR, then thor.

My prediction:

1. Hobbit or IM3
2. MoS or Hunger Games
3. Pacific Rim
4. MU
5. Thor and the rest...

 

[Tobias]

hobbit, IM3, MoS or MU, PR, then thor.

Unfortunate MU follows MOS. It is going to cut into MOS's retention week after week for several weeks. Even if MOS is good. Not as bad as POTC did to SR but it is going to dampen the MOS box somewhat.

 

[Marvin]

Thor will be another of those, come and see this if you wanna know what happens next in avengers. That worked some kinda wonders for that Last IM movie.

I see pretty solid numbers for Thor 2. It doesn't hurt that the direction looks more appealing. Big middle earth day time action, big earth rainy day time action, a villain that looks like he can throw a punch....

Strangely enough MoS has a small town battle in it as well, it's just not the selling point.

 

[GreenKToo]

My prediction:

1. Hobbit or IM3
2. MoS or Hunger Games
3. Pacific Rim
4. MU
5. Thor and the rest...

I forgot about hungergames. that will knock MoS down to about 4 or 5. I'll take it.
Hobbit,
IM3,
HG,
MU or MOS,
MOS or MU,
PR,
hangover 3 ( forgot about it)
Thor. However, The lone ranger may take this spot. you cant ever tell how a depp film will do. My gut instinct says bomb tho. we shall see.

 

[Sup3rman81]

I see it being

1. IM3
2. MOS
3. Hunger Games
4. Hobbit
5. FF6
6. MU

 

[GreenKToo]

Thor will be another of those, come and see this if you wanna know what happens next in avengers. That worked some kinda wonders for that Last IM movie.

I see pretty solid numbers for Thor 2. It doesn't hurt that the direction looks more appealing. Big middle earth day time action, big earth rainy day time action, a villain that looks like he can throw a punch....

Strangely enough MoS has a small town battle in it as well, it's just not the selling point.

except SV LOOKS like a real small town....

 

[GreenKToo]

crap. I forgot about FF6 also. I've spent tooo much time in the MoS forums lol. thats gonna be a huge hit as well.

 

[redp]

really? I really like thor but that trailer did nothing for me. I have almost no anticipation for it.
I can see thor 2 making around 200 dom, maybe slightly more or less. which is good for him. but the second highest grosser?? I dont think so.

I had the same reaction. The trailer is pointless.

 

[Tobias]

I forgot about hungergames. that will knock MoS down to about 4 or 5. I'll take it.
Hobbit,
IM3,
HG,
MU or MOS,
MOS or MU,
PR,
hangover 3 ( forgot about it)
Thor. However, The lone ranger may take this spot. you cant ever tell how a depp film will do. My gut instinct says bomb tho. we shall see.

PR is getting a big OS push. It's action oriented and could pull a Transformers and jump up several notches. I could see it coming in 4 or 5 for the year. Lots of hype overseas and it's more than a month away.

Lone Ranger is a hard call. It could do very well or just so/so and allow the holdovers to make some extra buck over the July 4th weekend.

 

[Dr.]

The real question I have is simple. A more condensed and concise(less reuse) version of Trailer 4, at the superbowl....how does that not happen[?] Any other film and it's a given.
I thinking that would have easily won the broadcast....easily, especially with RDJ staring at the screen...
I'd also go so far as to flash the hashtag #THISAINTYOURDADDY'SSUPERMANNOMO.

In hindsight, perhaps it's not all that needed, but I still cannot see how it's not a given. Would have been half a years worth of water cooler talk.

My speculation: WB had an overall marketing strategy that entailed an enigmatic/moody/dramatic/arty introduction. From there, a slow and crafted escalation would reveal more and more action, more and more of the movie’s immense scope. Now, feel free to criticize this strategy. But this is what the WB eggheads thought would work. And as it turned out, the Super Bowl just didn’t line up with the plan. WB weren’t prepared to show a more action-oriented spot too soon; and (imo) presenting the arty/Malick-esque trailer #2 wouldn’t have impressed alongside IM3, Budweiser and Nachos (and, therefore, would have been a big waste of $8M).

 

[Marvin]

except SV LOOKS like a real small town....

Better Direction...story of this movie's life.

If IM1 made 300 Dom coming from nothing but had good word of mouth a film people talked about. I don't see this film doing any less.

 

[Marvin]

My speculation: WB had an overall marketing strategy that entailed an enigmatic/moody/dramatic/arty introduction. From there, a slow and crafted escalation would reveal more and more action, more and more of the movie’s immense scope. Now, feel free to criticize this strategy. But this is what the WB eggheads thought would work. And as it turned out, the Super Bowl just didn’t line up with the plan. WB weren’t prepared to show a more action-oriented spot too soon; and (imo) presenting the arty/Malick-esque trailer #2 wouldn’t have impressed alongside IM3, Budweiser and Nachos (and, therefore, would have been a big waste of $8M).

Yea I can see how this probably happened. And in the end it might have paid off. I do think this isn't the time for WB to be "trying new things in marketing" Rewrite the rule boon on a low risk and low importance film(TDKR).

The annoying part is that most films can't show anything due to their post production schedule(see GL). MOS a Dec release...It's even more annoying cause I always wanted to see a "Zack Snyderesque" Superman Trailer. The brand need it coming off of Returns.

 

[Tobias]

Hobbit
IM3
HG
MU
PR
Thor or MOS
Thor or MOS
Hangover3

 

[terry78]

Fast and Furious will shock this weekend, I am making a prediction.

 

[Notrip]

Again, I think all of you are underestimating Nolan's name being attached to this movie. Nolan has had his name on all three major trailers. Tons of people think that he is directing this thing. Again, tons of people that I know or have talked to think he is directing this movie or is apart of it in a bigger way than he is. They said and I quote, "Him being apart of this is all I need, I am in." or "I don't like Superman that much, but Nolan being apart of it is a great thing, I will see it." Inception was an original idea that had solid word of mouth and did almost 300D/550INT. I have a feeling Man of Steel is going to be an EVENT film. IF it has good WOM and is great 85+RT/A- Cinemasc or better, expect 300+/450+ for 750 WW+. I cannot see this movie doing anything less than 700WW. Based on WB being so in love with this film, I have heard more so than TDK, anything less than 700 million WorldWide will disappoint.

 

[terry78]

Nolan's name does carry weight, I will give you that. It's pretty much getting to be on par with seeing Spielberg's name attached that makes you sit up and notice. It's good marketing to be sure.

 

[sf2]

I feel that its more WB wanting to get the word out through Facebook and Twitter. They are trying to use those methods to save money. Could it bite them in the a$$ later on, possibly. I want this movie to succeed more than anything. I feel if it doesnt we only have WB to blame because from what I see Snyder and company have made a spectacular film

Btw... I thought MOS has a poor number of followers in FB. Twitter... not so sure. Does it mean the GA not really paying attention to it???

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

Again, I think all of you are underestimating Nolan's name being attached to this movie. Nolan has had his name on all three major trailers. Tons of people think that he is directing this thing. Again, tons of people that I know or have talked to think he is directing this movie or is apart of it in a bigger way than he is. They said and I quote, "Him being apart of this is all I need, I am in." or "I don't like Superman that much, but Nolan being apart of it is a great thing, I will see it." Inception was an original idea that had solid word of mouth and did almost 300D/550INT. I have a feeling Man of Steel is going to be an EVENT film. IF it has good WOM and is great 85+RT/A- Cinemasc or better, expect 300+/450+ for 750 WW+. I cannot see this movie doing anything less than 700WW. Based on WB being so in love with this film, I have heard more so than TDK, anything less than 700 million WorldWide will disappoint.

I'm with you. This could do huge B.O. World wide if the movie turns out to be great and has excellent word of mouth. I think above a billion is totally doable. Hopefully it gets really good reviews in the next week or so.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Fast and Furious will shock this weekend, I am making a prediction.

Not really. It was always going to open huge and always going to beat The Hangover Part III.

 

[redp]

Fast and Furious will shock this weekend, I am making a prediction.

 

[Tobias]

Btw... I thought MOS has a poor number of followers in FB. Twitter... not so sure. Does it mean the GA not really paying attention to it???

On FB MOS has a poor showing. Something like 660,000 likes compared to 1.2 million for Spiderman and 13 million for IMR and 11 million for TDKR. Don't know about twitter. Based on FB yeah, folks don't seem to be paying attention.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Movie's currently tracking at 125 M OW domestic on BTC I think, some say it's too high, I'm saying 100 M OW, at the very least, is a lock, the trailer views on Youtube are insane, the last one hit 1.2 M + in not even a day, it has a big number of likes on Facebook, lots of people are talking about it, there is definitely a lottttt of excitement and expectations. Right now, it's definitely THE summer movie to see, expect the movie to blow up overseas as well, not to be too reckless, but I think a minimum of 700 M Worldwide is to be expected, high end would be 1 billion.

Pacific Rim should be a huge hit too, it's tracking pretty well when it's only releasing in July and has no established universe or no real "stars". Slap the last trailer just before MOS, and Legendary/WB will be printing money in no time.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

On FB MOS has a poor showing. Something like 660,000 likes compared to 1.2 million for Spiderman and 13 million for IMR and 11 million for TDKR. Don't know about twitter. Based on FB yeah, folks don't seem to be paying attention.

It's actually very good, no need to compare it to Batman or else that are established franchises. Supes comes back from a turdish movie by Singer, and WB is doing everything perfectly marketing wise to make sure people know that this one will be a great movie, with plenty of action.


Read also from a guy at Warner Bros that they are expecting Man Of Steel to be their biggest movie ever (which wont happen of course, with TDKR and all, b ut still)

 

[Notrip]

Movie's currently tracking at 125 M OW domestic on BTC I think, some say it's too high, I'm saying 100 M OW, at the very least, is a lock, the trailer views on Youtube are insane, the last one hit 1.2 M + in not even a day, it has a big number of likes on Facebook, lots of people are talking about it, there is definitely a lottttt of excitement and expectations. Right now, it's definitely THE summer movie to see, expect the movie to blow up overseas as well, not to be too reckless, but I think a minimum of 700 M Worldwide is to be expected, high end would be 1 billion.

Pacific Rim should be a huge hit too, it's tracking pretty well when it's only releasing in July and has no established universe or no real "stars". Slap the last trailer just before MOS, and Legendary/WB will be printing money in no time.

Man of Steel OW is a wild card for sure. I have seen many predictions and tracking numbers. It could do anywhere from 85-145 OW. Nobody knows, heck it could blow up and do 60 million more than people realized similar to Avengers. I mean 155-165 and it did 50 million more! so 125 could turn into 175 or 85. Still think less than 100 million OW would be shocking to me at this point, especially since it will be Fathers Day weekend and MOS plays on that very well. Trust me when I say, WB thought of that when they moved this movie.