Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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A teeny bit of good news. Some cinemas here in Malaysia have started to put a single, teeny, Coming Soon of MOS (this is on their tv screens, rotating among other shows, NOT posters, still no posters). In comparison, Ironman has not only posters, but cardboard cutouts, wall papers that plaster entire entrances of cinemas here for the last 6 months... in fact, they are still there now...

But majority of Cinemas still have nothing...
 
Lol. What a sarcasm. Maybe Malaysia market is just too teeny. Will be a loss if market too heavily
 
A teeny bit of good news. Some cinemas here in Malaysia have started to put a single, teeny, Coming Soon of MOS (this is on their tv screens, rotating among other shows, NOT posters, still no posters). In comparison, Ironman has not only posters, but cardboard cutouts, wall papers that plaster entire entrances of cinemas here for the last 6 months... in fact, they are still there now...

But majority of Cinemas still have nothing...


SR did not do well OS and did poorest of all in Asia. Someone above mentioned that maybe WB is not going to market much in areas it thinks MOS can't do well in. Sounds like they are writing off Malaysia and other Asian countries. Guess they are looking at numbers that say the investment isn't worth the potential return. Still it seem self-defeating to me. What if WB is wrong and MOS would hav done well in Asia with a big marketing push.
 
That is probably the lowest domestic box office prediction i have seen in all of the internet. The movie is already tracking over 100 mill opening weekend and what you are predicting would make it one of the biggest flops in film history.

I think the effect superman returns will on this movie's BO is a tad bit overestimated. SR was not a bad movie, it just didnt live up to expectations. If MOS was coming of an atrocity like Batman and robin which nearly killed a the batman franchise then we would have a problem.

How is that one of the biggest flops in film history? TASM made just over 250M domestic.I don't think MOS will do as well in the domestic BO, but I could be wrong. 200M wouldn't surprise me, SR did that in 06'.
 
Some of you worry too much that MoS isnt gonna be this huge juggernaut ( or maybe its more hoping that it won't be by some here ).
MoS was never going to make a billion, or even 900 mill. most here know that. Reboots just don't make that kinda coin.
If it can do 600/700 mill ww, I guarantee you ( something that I never do ) that WB will be doing a happy dance.
 
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How is that one of the biggest flops in film history? TASM made just over 250M domestic.I don't think MOS will do as well in the domestic BO, but I could be wrong. 200M wouldn't surprise me, SR did that in 06'.

I don't think MOS will do especially well domestically either. However, I put a minimum of 240 million as adjusted for ticket prices that is what SR would make today. I think it will actually beat SR/240 million.
 
Dude, ironman3 did about 140M in just a weekends.

Btw, the posters stuff in a cinema I thought it was controlled by the cinema management themselves. Maybe it could be the cinema operators have no confidence in MOS. So they promote the movies they have more confidence in bringing them profit
 
I don't think MOS will do especially well domestically either. However, I put a minimum of 240 million as adjusted for ticket prices that is what SR would make today. I think it will actually beat SR/240 million.

Possibly, and I hope it does. But the real market is overseas. If it wants to hit the 500-600M mark it has to do well overseas. I don't think it'll bring in anything over 250M max domestic, that's if the movie is a phenomenal reboot. Not to mention pleasing all the fanboys.

I think it's naive to say it'll go anywhere past the 700M mark WW. Maybe the second movie if this one does a good job and the second villain is great.
 
Possibly, and I hope it does. But the real market is overseas. If it wants to hit the 500-600M mark it has to do well overseas. I don't think it'll bring in anything over 250M max domestic, that's if the movie is a phenomenal reboot. Not to mention pleasing all the fanboys.

I think it's naive to say it'll go anywhere past the 700M mark WW. Maybe the second movie if this one does a good job and the second villain is great.

I don't think it will do 700 million. My prediction is 550 WW. Maybe higher if there is really great WOM. The only folks putting out numbers like 700 million and more are fanboys. On general, non-fanboy, movie sites most seem to think 500 - 600 million WW. That is a realistic range IMO.
 
I feel that its more WB wanting to get the word out through Facebook and Twitter. They are trying to use those methods to save money. Could it bite them in the a$$ later on, possibly. I want this movie to succeed more than anything. I feel if it doesnt we only have WB to blame because from what I see Snyder and company have made a spectacular film
 
SR did not do well OS and did poorest of all in Asia. Someone above mentioned that maybe WB is not going to market much in areas it thinks MOS can't do well in. Sounds like they are writing off Malaysia and other Asian countries. Guess they are looking at numbers that say the investment isn't worth the potential return. Still it seem self-defeating to me. What if WB is wrong and MOS would hav done well in Asia with a big marketing push.

You're right Tobias... WB is making a serious mistake. They are probably using SR numbers and figures it's not worth their time. But SR was 7 years ago, and if they don't market the new MOS, how are people going to know it's going to be different and much better? Asians love action packed movies, regardless if it has branding or not, so if they marketed this as the Year's MOST Awesome ACTION YOU WILL ever SEE, it'll explode.. and when the first batch of people goes and see and did not get disappointed, the WOM will start.. and that's where the big bucks is...

Lol. What a sarcasm. Maybe Malaysia market is just too teeny. Will be a loss if market too heavily

Sarcasm intended... Ironman did 12 Million in Malaysia... Indonesia 14 million, South Korea 54 Million, China 97 Million, etc, etc.. it's big numbers OS and in Asia alone...

BTW: I think cinemas will put up posters / marketing materials if you provide it to them. It cost them nothing and they have lots of space... Cardboard cutouts of Superman would be a great promo tool.. and when they do it in bulk, it's going to be pennies on the dollar they'll earn on ticket sales...

Also, the reason I think Cinemas here are not putting up posters, etc, is mainly because it's not provided to them... why? Because much smaller movies have posters..
 
600 WW would be respectable. Although TASM came off a terrible SM3, the fan base is still there overseas which absolutely love Spidey. What MOS has over TASM is the anticipation, IMO. This movie seems a lot bigger and with all the rumors of this movie kick-starting a JLA movie, you just never know. With Snyder it's a wild card. Looks great, but at the end of the day we can't get our hopes up too much until some solid reviews come out.

My prediction would be 150-200 domestic and 350-400 overseas, and that's anything but modest for the overseas market.

ASM had to deal with one major major issue that doesn't seem to be present here. Seemingly retelling a story they told less than a decade prior, with cheaper unknown stars and an even cheaper unknown villain that when compared with the first villain came off as simply a monster movie archetype(never good for superhero movies).

MoS doesn't have that obstacle. No one watches man of steel's media and say's any of those two things above.

Some of you worry too much that MoS isnt gonna be this huge juggernaut ( or maybe its more hoping that it won't be by some here ).
MoS was never going to make a billion, or even 900 mill. most here know that. Reboots just don't make that kinda coin.
If it can do 600/700 mill ww, I guarantee you ( something that I never do ) that WB will be doing a happy dance.

Correction, Reboots simply haven't made that kinda coin.
Each one with it's own reasoning for that.

For example bond movies simply don't make all that much money(till they changed the format enough to get the GA to think it was some sort of event).
-Ignoring my personal qualms with Begins(there are alot), it was made during a different time. Moreover it's producers weren't the stars they are today.
-StarTrek, even it's sequel isn't going to make all THAT much money, there is something else going on there beyond the reboot factor.
-Hulk, need I say more.
-First Class
-Superman Returns.........some people blame that films performance on it's reboot nature, I blame other things.
-Planet of the apes(both versions)
-I'm sure TMNT will be added to that list as well.
...the list goes on and on.

Let's take a look at these reboots now.
-Transformers 4.
It's got a bigger star, the same powerful director, big summer date.
-Star Wars 7
-The next batman....

Pretty sure all of those will make a billion.
Some films are destined to simply make more money than others. It's all about circumstance, in this day and age if a film doesn't have everything riding against it, and actually has some things going for it, then the GA will respond as it does any other film. MoS is hard to predict but I honestly don't see it in the same boat as some of those others if only for the clown that is Bryan Singer, I will admit that is a factor.
 
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Anyone that thinks 250 dom or less is smoking the good stuff.
The name nolan alone is worth that.
Throw in this great cast, snyder, spectacular action, brilliant score, and what looks to be a really good story, and you are looking at around 300 dom.

The Overseas market is MUCH bigger now than it was during SR, so even if the marketing is lackluster in some areas, it should still do 325/350 mill there.
 
I think this movie is going to make money than expected. maybe not a billion like we all want but very close to TDK numbers domestically. This movie should appeal to old fans and new and the overall GA. with Iron Man already out and losing steam and Wolverine and Thor not coming out for weeks and months after MOS, it really has no CBM competition. I think once people see how good this movie is WOM will spread and its legs will carry it to a 450-475 domestic take and a 350 OS take. I see an overall WW take of about 700-750m. WB cannot abandon MOS sequels though if it does 500-600m, they need to let it grow and let people see what Snyder can do.
 
ASM had to deal with one major major issue that doesn't seem to be present here. Seemingly retelling a story they told less than a decade prior, with cheaper unknown stars and an even cheaper unknown villain that when compared with the first villain came off as simply a monster movie archetype(never good for superhero movies).

MoS doesn't have that obstacle. No one watches man of steel's media and say's any of those two things above.



Correction, Reboots simply haven't made that kinda coin.
Each one with it's own reasoning for that.

For example bond movies simply don't make all that much money(till they changed the format enough to get the GA to think it was some sort of event).
-Ignoring my personal qualms with Begins(there are alot), it was made during a different time. Moreover it's producers weren't the stars they are today.
-StarTrek, even it's sequel isn't going to make all THAT much money, there is something else going on there beyond the reboot factor.
-Hulk, need I say more.
-First Class
-Superman Returns.........some people blame that films performance on it's reboot nature.
-I'm sure TMNT will be added to that list as well.
...the list goes on and on.

Let's take a look at these reboots now.
-Transformers 4.
It's got a bigger star, the same powerful director, big summer date.
-Star Wars 7
...um
-The next batman....

Pretty sure all of those will make a billion.
Some films are destined to simply make more money than others. It's all about circumstance, in this day and age if a film doesn't have everything riding against it, and actually has some things going for it, then the GA will respond as it does any other film. MoS is hard to predict but I honestly don't see it in the same boat as some of those others if only for the clown that is Bryan Singer, I will admit that is a factor.
Agreed. This should be our BB, only with a larger BO. It will still be not enough to reach the billion dollar club tho. If i'm wrong, i'll be happy to be so.
The sequel, or WF, thats where the billion dollar ticket punch for this is.
 
Anyone that thinks 250 dom or less is smoking the good stuff.
The name nolan alone is worth that.
Throw in this great cast, snyder, spectacular action, brilliant score, and what looks to be a really good story, and you are looking at around 300 dom.

The Overseas market is MUCH bigger now than it was during SR, so even if the marketing is lackluster in some areas, it should still do 325/350 mill there.

I agree less than 250 is crazy. On the general movie sites some think it will do like SR and then say 200 million. They are failing to take into account the ticket inflation and really they are saying around 250. Just not thinking through price inflation.
 
Cap and Thor made about 200 I think.
I don't see a superman with these producers doing those numbers.

A Snyder directed Cap and Thor alone would probably make a good deal more than those.
 
Agreed. This should be our BB, only with a larger BO. It will still be not enough to reach the billion dollar club tho. If i'm wrong, i'll be happy to be so.
The sequel, or WF, thats where the billion dollar ticket punch for this is.

If it makes the 600 million needed for a follow-up that follow-up first off is going to be JL. They are already introducing JL toy lines. JL will do a billion. Then what do you do with Henry - use him in JL2 or recast JL2 and use Henry in an MOS sequel. He has an option for 3 films and he may just stop at 3.
 
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Cap and Thor made about 200 I think.
I don't see a superman with these producers doing those numbers.

A Snyder directed Cap and Thor alone would probably make a good deal more than those.

Thor2 could be the surprise hit of the summer (really fall). Perfect scheduling, no competition, huge anticipation, great reaction to trailers. It will do massive numbers overseas and could be the number 2 film box office wise after IM3 for 2013. The foreign driver is what is turning these Marvel films into juggernauts.
 
MoS has that feel to it. It has an event feel to it. Much the same as spider-man 1 and TDK had.
I can understand people predicting the moon for this, ( i'm not, 625/650 total ) but predicting 250 dom ( or less), or 250 overseas is asinine.

250 dom would be on a level of disappointment equal to SR, and with nolan attached, this cast, all that action, etc, that aint happening.
 
Thor2 could be the surprise hit of the summer (really fall). Perfect scheduling, no competition, huge anticipation, great reaction to trailers. It will do massive numbers overseas and could be the number 2 film box office wise after IM3 for 2013. The foreign driver is what is turning these Marvel films into juggernauts.

I think the Hobbit will be either the number 2 or even number 1 box office of the year...

And yes, WB haven't learn from Marvel's OS marketing yet... they are still stuck in the stone age of marketing... If MOS had as much marketing as Ironman (and if they did a few minutes extra footage with Chinese Actors, then it'll be far bigger than Ironman for sure...
 
Thor2 could be the surprise hit of the summer (really fall). Perfect scheduling, no competition, huge anticipation, great reaction to trailers. It will do massive numbers overseas and could be the number 2 film box office wise after IM3 for 2013. The foreign driver is what is turning these Marvel films into juggernauts.
really? I really like thor but that trailer did nothing for me. I have almost no anticipation for it.
I can see thor 2 making around 200 dom, maybe slightly more or less. which is good for him. but the second highest grosser?? I dont think so.
 
hobbit, IM3, MoS or MU, PR, then thor.
 
I think the Hobbit will be either the number 2 or even number 1 box office of the year...

And yes, WB haven't learn from Marvel's OS marketing yet... they are still stuck in the stone age of marketing... If MOS had as much marketing as Ironman (and if they did a few minutes extra footage with Chinese Actors, then it'll be far bigger than Ironman for sure...

Too Marvel does a wide release. That really helps if the film is hot with good WOM.

WB staggers the release of its films which dilutes the positive vibes from a really good film. By late August when MOS is released in Japan and SK a lot of folks will have forgotten the early summer reaction to the film.
 
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