Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[G.Godfrey]

I'll say it again you people have no clue with all these low numbers.
After that trailer 100mil is too low now. 125 mil opening and thats being conservative.
It will get closer to 140 opening weekend.

Huh? Are you serious?

Top 10 June Opening Weekends:

1 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban WB $119,787,100

2 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen P/DW $115,977,500

3 Toy Story 3 BV $111,147,100

4 Batman Forever WB $96,346,800

5 Jurassic Park Uni. $90,191,500

6 Batman Returns WB $87,412,200

7 Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me NL $85,835,800

8 Hulk Uni. $81,807,600

9 Batman WB $80,979,500

10 The Lion King BV $77,668,000

I rest my case.

 

[mclay18]

On 4/6/13:


Now:

My my, what a difference a little marketing makes. t:

Tthose two are two different entities. The magazine I'm talking about is mainly about the movie exhibitor business (one that only cinema/theater chains receive), and articles about how well a certain movie(s) is predicted to do.

 

[JKKS085]

With a good word of mouth, it could reach 300 millions. I have a hard time picturing the movie grossing above 310 millions though.

International is hard to predict but I'd say that the least we can expect is a domestic/overseas ratio in the same neighbourhood as Captain America The First Avenger, maybe a bit better.
So the overseas gross may be anywhere between 300 and 330 millions. Maybe even 340/350.

I pretty much stand by the predictions I made awhile ago. I think the movie should make 620/660 millions worldwide.
Having said that if the movie is as impressive as it looks, who knows, maybe it can gross even more than that.

 

[flickchick85]

Tthose two are two different entities. The magazine I'm talking about is mainly about the movie exhibitor business (one that only cinema/theater chains receive), and articles about how well a certain movie(s) is predicted to do.

Oh are they? Because Boxoffice.com is the official website for a Box Office Magazine. The industry trade publication. Are there two Box Office Magazines?

 

[Micromind]

Iron Man 3 is definitely going to be the most successful comic book movie this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if Thor: TDW ends up making as much money as MOS.

Opening date is not very good for MOS and Superman is not very popular overseas nowadays.




(After watching the first Thor:TDW trailer)

 

[KalMart]

They're making another Thor? Why not just wait until Avengers 2?

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

Iron Man 3 is definitely going to be the most successful comic book movie this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if Thor: TDW ends up making as much money as MOS.

Opening date is not very good for MOS and Superman is not very popular overseas nowadays.




(After watching the first Thor:TDW trailer)

Same here.

 

[ares834]

and I wouldn't be surprised if Thor: TDW ends up making as much money as MOS.

TBH, I would be absolutely astounded.

 

[Liam_H]

Huh? Are you serious?

Top 10 June Opening Weekends:

1 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban WB $119,787,100

2 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen P/DW $115,977,500

3 Toy Story 3 BV $111,147,100

4 Batman Forever WB $96,346,800

5 Jurassic Park Uni. $90,191,500

6 Batman Returns WB $87,412,200

7 Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me NL $85,835,800

8 Hulk Uni. $81,807,600

9 Batman WB $80,979,500

10 The Lion King BV $77,668,000

I rest my case.

Where are you getting these numbers? The top 2 should be lower than Toy Story 3, although TF2 would be #1 if it didn't open on a Wednesday.

 

[Liam_H]

So, is this poll really closed??

It automatically closes whenever a new Part is started.

 

[G.Godfrey]

Where are you getting these numbers?

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=06&adjust_yr=2013&p=.htm

 

[Liam_H]

Oh you're adjusting it.

 

[G.Godfrey]

Oh you're adjusting it.

No I just copied the list and didn't even realize it was adjusted (though I did think it was strange how big the grosses were for the old movies, I guess my brain froze on me ) Point was (and now that I see it's adjusted it's even stronger) that no June movie has ever made more than 119 million on it's OW so the guy saying how even 125 million OW for MOS is conservative is a bit...strange, to say the least. I doubt MOS will brake any box office records. It's going to be a fantastic outcome if it brakes into the top 5 June OW all time list.

 

[mclay18]

Oh are they? Because Boxoffice.com is the official website for a Box Office Magazine. The industry trade publication. Are there two Box Office Magazines?

I went and read some of the articles, and I think you're right. Some of the box office predictions and write-ups were in the past issues.

I'll check that magazine tomorrow when I go to work.

 

[fake]

I went and read some of the articles, and I think you're right. Some of the box office predictions and write-ups were in the past issues.

I'll check that magazine tomorrow when I go to work.

Seems to be the same magazine. Their wiki page leads to the website: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boxoffice_(magazine)

 

[kendalag]

No I just copied the list and didn't even realize it was adjusted (though I did think it was strange how big the grosses were for the old movies, I guess my brain froze on me ) Point was (and now that I see it's adjusted it's even stronger) that no June movie has ever made more than 119 million on it's OW so the guy saying how even 125 million OW for MOS is conservative is a bit...strange, to say the least. I doubt MOS will brake any box office records. It's going to be a fantastic outcome if it brakes into the top 5 June OW all time list.

True ... but can't just use months history as what will happen next ... forever, March was a barren wasteland ... then 300 did 70 million and set a record and people were like, cool. Then you had Hunger Games make 150 million, smashing what came before. If a movie is good and marketed well, people will show up.

Man of Steel Prediction for now
Opening - 110 million (could go higher if buzz continues to grow ... Superman Returns with inflation, Friday release instead of Wednesday and 3D would be over 90)
Domestic Gross - 325 million (SR does 260-265 with inflation/3D)
Overseas Gross - 400 million (SR does about 250 inflation/3D)

Worldwide Gross - 725 million

 

[Mysteryman]

I really dont understand What SR's Adjusted Gross has to do with anything.

 

[kendalag]

I really dont understand What SR's Adjusted Gross has to do with anything.

What don't you get?

Adjusted box office is talked about all the time, including in the earlier posts by Godfrey.

Essentially, if you predict lower than 85-90 million, from a strictly ticket aspect, you're saying it's going to open lower than Superman Returns did ... same with under 250-260 million domestic gross.

Again, it's never a science, because times are different, but just in general, that's what the tickets sold would make you believe. Now don't compare films from YEARS ago, but if it's somewhat recent, it's going to be reasonable.

I just don't think it's possible for it to sell less tickets, with the seemingly 'fresher' take with great buzz, plus, I know it's overstated, but Nolan's name attached does give the film a certain credibility with people given his history in the genre.

Maybe, Superman's place in society will once again disappoint me, but I'm confident this time.

 

[Mysteryman]

You say a strictly ticket aspect, what other way is there to look at it ?
Of course , it could open Lower than SR , anythings possible, ether way .

 

[kendalag]

You say a strictly ticket aspect, what other way is there to look at it ?
Of course , it could open Lower than SR , anythings possible, ether way .

My writing was a little off ... but if it sells apx as many tickets as Superman Returns opening weekend (if it would have opened on a Friday instead of Wednesday) Man of Steel would do in the neighborhood of 90 million.

I simply feel that the demand seems to be higher than it was in 2006 ... but even saying that, I remember the disappointment of the film and the public's lack of embrace of the character in favor of Pirates of the Caribbean 2 & Jack Sparrow, leaving it to struggle to 200 million.

If it's not good & makes less than Superman Returns overall, the character is essentially dead as a tier 1 comic property in America for the foreseeable future and will be a huge strike for WB and their DC universe plans.

I hope it sure doesn't and don't expect it will.


... although, having said that ... all I truly care about is a good film.

 

[JayJustROTFL]

Man Of Steel has very strong marketing behind it (goodness knows how much thats costing alone). The only thing that can really slow it down is mediocre/bad reviews for the film. Otherwise I can easily see this making 650-750m.

 

[snyderrocks]

Man Of Steel has very strong marketing behind it (goodness knows how much thats costing alone). The only thing that can really slow it down is mediocre/bad reviews for the film. Otherwise I can easily see this making 650-750m.

i agree about the marketing , but will smiths after earth moved back two week's so that should help man of steel make some extra money .

 

[mclay18]

I wonder if the Wal-Mart advance screenings will actually help the film's opening weekend. People who see the 7 p.m. showings, like it, and rave to their friends and family about it might spur more walk-ins come Friday and Saturday.

 

[snyderrocks]

I wonder if the Wal-Mart advance screenings will actually help the film's opening weekend. People who see the 7 p.m. showings, like it, and rave to their friends and family about it might spur more walk-ins come Friday and Saturday.

i have never been this happy to live in a town where there is a wall mart and a movie theater it is going packed at least around here .

 

[GreenKToo]

The last trailer looked great, but I think I let my excitement for it cloud my judgement. so...I slightly lowered my estimate, but not by much. this is still a reboot afterall.
95/105 OW.
305/315 dom
310/320 overseas.
615/635 total.