Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Dr.]

Deadline has an article about analysts looking at this summer’s releases and predicting “high profile failures.” (The Lone Ranger and World War Z - allegedly - qualify.)

According to the guru, the successes will include:

“…Disney’s Iron Man 3 (he projects domestic box office of $350M), Paramount’s Star Trek Into Darkness ($250M), Warner Bros’s Man of Steel ($220M), Universal’s Fast & Furious 6 ($200M), Disney/Pixar’s Monsters University ($275M), Universal’s Despicable Me 2 ($250M), and Warner Bros’ The Hangover Part III ($225M).”

Now, $220M (domestic) is a fair bit lower than the predictions by BOMojo and Boxoffice.com (who each said +$300M). I’m not sure that MOS can crack $300M; but $220M seems way too conservative. (Taking inflation into account, SR made more than that.)

http://www.deadline.com/2013/05/summer-tentpole-movies-bomb/

 

[Lily Adler]

When did members of the BatBoards start coming here?

 

[G.Godfrey]

Deadline has an article about analysts looking at this summer’s releases and predicting “high profile failures.” (The Lone Ranger and World War Z - allegedly - qualify.)

According to the guru, the successes will include:

“…Disney’s Iron Man 3 (he projects domestic box office of $350M), Paramount’s Star Trek Into Darkness ($250M), Warner Bros’s Man of Steel ($220M), Universal’s Fast & Furious 6 ($200M), Disney/Pixar’s Monsters University ($275M), Universal’s Despicable Me 2 ($250M), and Warner Bros’ The Hangover Part III ($225M).”

Now, $220M (domestic) is a fair bit lower than the predictions by BOMojo and Boxoffice.com (who each said +$300M). I’m not sure that MOS can crack $300M; but $220M seems way too conservative. (Taking inflation into account, SR made more than that.)

http://www.deadline.com/2013/05/summer-tentpole-movies-bomb/

Whoever wrote that was conservative pretty much all around not just with MOS. And dead wrong too. STID making less than the first one? FF6 too? Despicable Me not making more than the first one? Yeah, no to all of those. Also, MOS is cracking 300 and without too much of a struggle as well. And I expect pretty much everyone (speaking of sites like Deadline) to be on board with that about a week before the 14th.

 

[Lily Adler]

When is WWZ supposed to be out? I remember seeing all those promos for it on television back in March, but now nothing.

 

[Iceman]

Anyone else feeling nervous the closer the release date gets here? I feel like I am actually APART of Superman and the success he's bound to make. I'm not going to lie, money issue aside, I think MOS is going to kick the absolute living DOG-S*** out of IM3 and I'll be loving every damn second of it.

How much do you think it's going to make?

If it had been the 1st Superman film after all that time instead of Superman Returns it could have made crazy money.

 

[G.Godfrey]

Anyone else feeling nervous the closer the release date gets here?

Nope, it's the opposite for me. The closer we get the more chilled and confident I am in Man of Steel's success, both financially and critically. And next month I'll be chilling out, legs on the desk, sipping a margarita and observing the success of MOS with a big stupid grin on my face.

 

[Pickle-El]

After seeing IM3...MOS doesn't have to fly incredibly high to be a better, well-paced film. I pray it isn't worse than IM3.

 

[Trinity]

When is WWZ supposed to be out? I remember seeing all those promos for it on television back in March, but now nothing.

June 21st. One week after MOS.

 

[fake]

Saw this on the Box Office forums.

First official tracking number for "Man of Steel". Tracking is starting off strong with >85% "Aware and Planning on watching" among all demos except women 20-35 where it is 83%

Spoiler

 

[rickhunter]

I think a figure between 80-95

btw why this poll is closed

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Saw this on the Box Office forums.

First official tracking number for "Man of Steel". Tracking is starting off strong with >85% "Aware and Planning on watching" among all demos except women 20-35 where it is 83%

Spoiler

Not bad.

 

[DKDetective]

Saw this on the Box Office forums.

First official tracking number for "Man of Steel". Tracking is starting off strong with >85% "Aware and Planning on watching" among all demos except women 20-35 where it is 83%

Spoiler

Nice. Did you see any similar numbers for Iron Man 3 or Star Trek Into Darkness for comparison? It would give us a better idea of how to interpret these tracking numbers.

 

[fake]

Nice. Did you see any similar numbers for Iron Man 3 or Star Trek Into Darkness for comparison? It would give us a better idea of how to interpret these tracking numbers.

The only data I could find was this Deadline article from 3 weeks ago: http://www.deadline.com/2013/04/iron-man-3-tracking-for-huge-125m-to-open-summer-2013-movie-season/

"total awareness numbers are in the 90s"

Found something for STID as well: http://furiousfanboys.com/2013/05/why-is-into-darkness-tracking-so-low/

Here is an article on TDKR and Avengers tracking: http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jun/28/entertainment/la-et-ct-dark-knight-rises-tracking-20120627

 

[Tyrone Parker]

Nope, it's the opposite for me. The closer we get the more chilled and confident I am in Man of Steel's success, both financially and critically. And next month I'll be chilling out, legs on the desk, sipping a margarita and observing the success of MOS with a big stupid grin on my face.

400 mil doms would not surprise me at all.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

400 mil doms would not surprise me at all.

I would. Don't get me wrong, MOS has been my most anticipated film of 2013 for the past 1 and 1/2, but that's a pretty crazy and out there prediction. But that would be pretty monumental for a reboot, imo.

 

[Tyrone Parker]

This is no ordinary reboot. Its been 30 years in the making.

SR doesn't count all that was, was an homage to the Donnerverse. That really killed lots of fans expectations that wanted to see a new take and vision Superman.

Now we are finally getting what we wanted. Not a rehash of 30 year old campy movie.

 

[Mysteryman]

Structurally, it is the same as any other reboot .
In the minds of the GA ,SR definitely counted as another in a long line of Superman Films that didnt deliver .

 

[Mysteryman]

Saw this on the Box Office forums.

First official tracking number for "Man of Steel". Tracking is starting off strong with >85% "Aware and Planning on watching" among all demos except women 20-35 where it is 83%

Spoiler

The $125 million projection for MOS is interesting , because I always thought that was the best case scenario for it if everything fell into place

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Pretty sure that tracking report is fake. Tracking never includes kids. It's Men Under/Over 25 and Women Under/Over 25. The latter part of women are used as basis for kids/family audience. And every tracking report includes a First Choice and Definite Interest section. That doesn't.

 

[Mysteryman]

Wow.
Thanks for the catch Jamie.
It is really hard to know what info is reliable and what isnt .

 

[psylockolussus]

Deadline has an article about analysts looking at this summer’s releases and predicting “high profile failures.” (The Lone Ranger and World War Z - allegedly - qualify.)

According to the guru, the successes will include:

“…Disney’s Iron Man 3 (he projects domestic box office of $350M), Paramount’s Star Trek Into Darkness ($250M), Warner Bros’s Man of Steel ($220M), Universal’s Fast & Furious 6 ($200M), Disney/Pixar’s Monsters University ($275M), Universal’s Despicable Me 2 ($250M), and Warner Bros’ The Hangover Part III ($225M).”

Now, $220M (domestic) is a fair bit lower than the predictions by BOMojo and Boxoffice.com (who each said +$300M). I’m not sure that MOS can crack $300M; but $220M seems way too conservative. (Taking inflation into account, SR made more than that.)

http://www.deadline.com/2013/05/summer-tentpole-movies-bomb/

I actually like/agree with these predictions. Not too high, not too low, just right in the middle.

 

[Tyrone Parker]

MOS will not under perform. Its going to shut up everyone that is giving these lowball predictions.

In fact its is Yahoo movie users #1 most anticipated movie of the summer by a wide margin. Superman is just so much more interesting with his alien origins than some rich guy that flys around in armor.

 

[JOE]

It won't do as well as IM3. Might do better than Star Trek though.

 

[psylockolussus]

In fact its is Yahoo movie users #1 most anticipated movie of the summer by a wide margin. Superman is just so much more interesting with his alien origins than some rich guy that flys around in armor.

So was Superman Returns back in 2006.

 

[Tyrone Parker]

So was Superman Returns back in 2006.

Good...it will be even sweeter when it opens at over 100 mil to show you that SR has nothing to do with this movie.