Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[redp]

Interesting. I think your original 265 million domestic is close to how it turns out.

WOM is key but I notice on Screen Rant MOS isn't even listed in the Hot Topics listed across the top of the page. Of course internet "polls" aren't really too accurate.

Trailer clicks are an indicator but only that. The trailers have been great. But SR had a huge hit on it's trailers too. Hard to say.

I didn't know that SR was a huge hit with its trailers. Apart from WOM, the target demographic is also a key component in its gross. Take Iron Man 3 (produced by Disney): it is clearly intended for family audiences.(Some might disagree) The box office results clearly show this.(Friday-to-Saturday increase and Sunday-to-Monday decrease) In fact, this is one of the reasons why it is one its way to a billion; its attracting a really large audience.

In the trailers of MOS, there isn't a lot of an indication if it would match the family profile.

 

[Tobias]

I didn't know that SR was a huge hit with its trailers. Apart from WOM, the target demographic is also a key component in its gross. Take Iron Man 3 (produced by Disney): it is clearly intended for family audiences.(Some might disagree) The box office results clearly show this.(Friday-to-Saturday increase and Sunday-to-Monday decrease) In fact, this is one of the reasons why it is one its way to a billion; its attracting a really large audience.

In the trailers of MOS, there isn't a lot of an indication if it would match the family profile.

Not saying folks liked the trailers for SR, just that they got a ton of views and people extrapolated that into meaning a huge BO. So hits are not a foolproof indicator.

The OS box is hard to say too. Superman is not as popular as Spidey or the others so can't see it doing anything like TASM OS numbers.

SR underperformed OS but the market has grown a lot so I think MOS grosses more OS but not a lot. Hard to say again.

I see 250 domestic and 300 OS but hope the OS's market proves stronger than that. Say 350 million to get to the magic 600 million so we can get a JL film.

Good point about the family audience being key to IM3's success. I really don't know if MOS is geared to families or not.

 

[redp]

Not saying folks liked the trailers for SR, just that they got a ton of views and people extrapolated that into meaning a huge BO. So hits are not a foolproof indicator.

The OS box is hard to say too. Superman is not as popular as Spidey or the others so can't see it doing anything like TASM OS numbers.

SR underperformed OS but the market has grown a lot so I think MOS grosses more OS but not a lot. Hard to say again.

I see 250 domestic and 300 OS but hope the OS's market proves stronger than that. Say 350 million to get to the magic 600 million so we can get a JL film.

Good point about the family audience being key to IM3's success. I really don't know if MOS is geared to families or not.

True: Spidey seems to be more popular than Superman OS. Spider-Man has had 4 films already so it should be more popular. But, looking at the first Spider-Man it grossed ~$420 million OS.(11 years ago) The question is: at that point in time who was more popular Spider Man or Super Man? If MOS can be like Spider-Man 1 internationally then it could very well gross more than $300 million.

 

[Dr.]

Apart from WOM, the target demographic is also a key component in its gross. Take Iron Man 3 (produced by Disney): it is clearly intended for family audiences.(Some might disagree) The box office results clearly show this.(Friday-to-Saturday increase and Sunday-to-Monday decrease) In fact, this is one of the reasons why it is one its way to a billion; its attracting a really large audience.

In the trailers of MOS, there isn't a lot of an indication if it would match the family profile.

Of course, IM3 has the advantage of two prequels (+ Avengers) to establish its “family friendly” credentials. But I’m not sure this particular issue weighs heavily on a genre movie’s BO success (or lack, thereof). I think the overwhelming assumption is that MOS will be fine for youngsters.

Moreover - imo, Batman Begins was relatively “family friendly.” But TDK and TDKR took a much darker turn. Now, I don't know to what extent this was controversial among parenting watchdog groups; but it didn’t seem to affect the BO. At all.

 

[redp]

Of course, IM3 has the advantage of two prequels (+ Avengers) to establish its “family friendly” credentials. But I’m not sure this particular issue weighs heavily on a genre movie’s BO success (or lack, thereof). I think the overwhelming assumption is that MOS will be fine for youngsters.

Moreover - imo, Batman Begins was relatively “family friendly.” But TDK and TDKR took a much darker turn. Now, I don't know to what extent this was controversial among parenting watchdog groups; but it didn’t seem to affect the BO. At all.

I agree with you. The question isn't if it would be fine with them(its PG-13); its how much enthusiasm is evident. Looking at the time between sequels might help explain the steady BO.(A 12 year old would watch BB, 3 years later he is a 15 year old...). TDK audience is hard to exactly determine, but it was surely targeted for 15+, including adults.(The political themes)

 

[Tobias]

True: Spidey seems to be more popular than Superman OS. Spider-Man has had 4 films already so it should be more popular. But, looking at the first Spider-Man it grossed ~$420 million OS.(11 years ago) The question is: at that point in time who was more popular Spider Man or Super Man? If MOS can be like Spider-Man 1 internationally then it could very well gross more than $300 million.

Problem is, too, the marketing OS, least in Europe, seems to be AWOL. According to posters here who live there. WB is poor at marketing. Ironman was all over the place. I think this will put a damper on the OS BO.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I'm only expecting 300-400 million OS. Anything else would be a shocker to me.

 

[redp]

Problem is, too, the marketing OS, least in Europe, seems to be AWOL. According to posters here who live there. WB is poor at marketing. Ironman was all over the place. I think this will put a damper on the OS BO.

Maybe Warner Bros. will advertise later. Marketing costs are extremely high. But, definitely, what your saying is right.

 

[Tobias]

Maybe Warner Bros. will advertise later. Marketing costs are extremely high. But, definitely, what your saying is right.

Doesn't stop Marvel. If they are serious about re-launching the character you'd think

This is the last chance for the Superman franchise but, bigger than that, JL's fate hangs on MOS doing well. 600 million.

..... oh well,

 

[Dr.]

Problem is, too, the marketing OS, least in Europe, seems to be AWOL. According to posters here who live there. WB is poor at marketing. Ironman was all over the place. I think this will put a damper on the OS BO.

Up to a point, that can be offset by a strong US ad campaign - and if the US media (and WOM) treat MOS as a “phenom.”

 

[GreenKToo]

I think it does roughly 315/320 mill here and the same overseas for a 630/640 mill ww total.
Thats Just my gut feeling. I hope the actual #'s are a he11uva lot higher.
Excel seems pretty good at guessing the BO, so I hope he's right.

 

[Tobias]

Up to a point, that can be offset by a strong US ad campaign - and if the US media (and WOM) treat MOS as a “phenom.”

But why take that chance? The OS market is key and if MOS is to make it to 600 million it will take the OS market to do it.

This is probably the last chance for the franchise in a while and, more importantly, the only way to launch JL.

WB is not going all out in promoting it OS from the sounds of it. Most European cinemas are not even showing the trailer per what others are posting. Which I find pretty outrageous.

The TV spots here are great, why not Europe. One poster said (on the TV spot thread} that on general movie sites, where people are generally skeptical of MOS, the TV spots are going over very well.

This film looks great, Henry looks great, but if word doesn't get out in the European market which is the largest OS market what is the point? This is why I'm predicting just 300 million OS.

 

[Mysteryman]

WB isnt going to give up Making Superman movies, Period.

 

[Marvin]

When it's all said and done, I'm going to look back at this thread from page one, part one.

 

[Tobias]

WB isnt going to give up Making Superman movies, Period.

I'll modify that to say last chance in a while. Which is what I meant. Not forever. The JL situation is even more critical - we all want a JL film and the spinoffs which would come from it.

Just saying there be no holding back.

 

[Mysteryman]

WB knows it might take some time .
Thet are in it for the long haul .
And, I think the box office buzz is leaning towards Best Case Scenarios and not Worst Case Scenarios .
I will be fine .
One way or another, there will be a sequel to MOS .
COUNT ON IT!

 

[damian99uk]

Marketing and tv spots have been excellent here in the uk. I have seen all the tv spots and even an exclusive uk version which aired during the fa cup which is viewed by millions in this country. Hell they've even showed the zod you are not alone clip on most channels too. I also saw the 3 min trailer tonight at stid and the ga were all excited about it. One guy even said holy s**t that looks awesome im so going to see that.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Marketing and tv spots have been excellent here in the uk. I have seen all the tv spots and even an exclusive uk version which aired during the fa cup which is viewed by millions in this country. Hell they've even showed the zod you are not alone clip on most channels too. I also saw the 3 min trailer tonight at stid and the ga were all excited about it. One guy even said holy s**t that looks awesome im so going to see that.

If MoS doesn't make at bare minimum 600 million then nothing is guaranteed. If it can't muster 350 million OS, a jl movie ain't happening. Which is probably a good thing.

I think if the movie is great, 700 million should be a breeze.

 

[bgshw44]

boxoffice.com is projecting a $108M open with a $325 ***.

 

[db85usa]

I think times have changed, a lot of movies are pulling in decent numbers overseas nowadays. With that said, I'd be surprised if MoS grosses more than $450 million foreign. I'm not worried about that. I'm more concerned with the domestic total. That will dictate whether or not we will get a sequel or even a JL film. With all the soundtrack previews, tv spots lately, I'm confident this movie will do well in the box office.

Something just seems... different this time. I never get that sense that a movie is a "reboot" or "restart" other than maybe with Casino Royale -- it does feel like it with MoS. I'm slowly but surely beginning to forget all about Superman Returns

 

[sf2]

it's a karma to Singer when he wanted people to forget about SIII & SIV.

btw, don't forget there are a lot more movies coming out these days than the older days. there are new movies ( and a lot) every week! so the competition is stiff.

 

[matrix_ghost]

Maybe Warner Bros. will advertise later. Marketing costs are extremely high. But, definitely, what your saying is right.

I can only comment what is happening here in Holland but MoS isn't being promoted as extensive as IM3 was.
Plus when i went to watch IM3 they had the first trailer playing with the Crow v/o and the deadliest catch footage.

 

[craigdbfan]

I think it can actually make it past the 1 billion mark (WW). I really do.

 

[Micromind]

Superman Returns had a lot more advertisements one month before it's release as compared to MOS, here in Asia.

Man of Steel is not being promoted as much here, I don't know why, maybe they want to cut down on overseas advertisement costs. lol.

A Superman movie usually makes 60:40 (Domesticverseas) ratio of it's world wide total.

That means if MOS makes 360 mil. in Domestic market, it will make about 240 mil. overseas, thus adding upto 600 mil worldwide.

Most people expect (on these SHH boards who are not Superman fans.) this movie to make about 600 mil and get a RT rating about 70 %.

Will that be good enough when THOR 2 makes as much and IM 3 makes about 1 bil ?

What if both IM 3 and Thor 2 get higher Tomatometer scores as compared to Man of steel.

 

[Marvin]

I think it can actually make it past the 1 billion mark (WW). I really do.

Have you always thought this, or have you recently changed your mind?