Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[DKDetective]

Was it blatantly partisan?

I have read alot that STID is clearly drawing a parallel to the Bush policies after 9/11. Benedict Cumberbatch even gave an interview where he said that STID is indeed a critique of the Bush/Cheney years. Now if filmmakers want to make a film with a certain political ideology and don't care if anyone is offended well that's fine. However, it is a bad idea if you want your film to be a successful summer blockbuster because we live in a bitterly divided country and conservatives will shun a movie if they even get a whiff of it trying to send a "liberal" message. Now STID did fine with 84 million, but it probably was hurt somewhat by this perception.

Well, political/social commentary is what Trek is all about, but I highly doubt the commentary in STID had or will have any effect on its box office. It is so absurd, extreme and superficial that I would not have even noticed it, had I not read the interviews by Cumberbatch and the writers beforehand stating that they tried to hold a mirror up to real world events in the best traditions of the franchise.

 

[gkokujin]

why is the poll closed? the movie isn't out yet

 

[Tobias]

3 tracking companies/theater chains have opening weekend tracking ...

From last week
RS - 125
BTC - 125

New today
MTC - 130 (just released @ hsx.com)

Man, it this film fails to break 100, it's going to look bad for the tracking systems.

We'll see in a little over 3 1/2 weeks.

As STID proved these tracking predictions mean nothing.

The companies already look bad. Totally missed STID and also Gatsby. IM3 to a bit too.

STID's performance has put a more sober tone on MOS predictions. A good thing. Better to not be disappointed.

My 550 million is more firm now and my 90/95 million OW.

MOS will not, I'm afraid, make the 600 million it needs to make. The post-mortems will be many but the bottom line hasn't changed from 2006. Superman is not a popular character and moreso even OS.

BTW, early tracking for SR was solid then collapsed a week or so out. I recall one reviewer really liking the film but lamenting the tracking wasn't too good and a blockbuster it wasn't going to be.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

God Tobias you are being such a drama queen. WB will decide which number they consider successful not you.

You are delusional if you think the movie makes 550mil and unlike SR is seen as great by the GA and WB will say no way to a sequel because it didn't hit your made up 600mil number. It's a reboot coming after a failed reboot, I doubt Warners is expecting Avengers numbers.

 

[Tobias]

God Tobias you are being such a drama queen. WB will decide which number they consider successful not you.

You are delusional if you think the movie makes 550mil and unlike SR is seen as great by the GA and WB will say no way to a sequel because it didn't hit your made up 600mil number. It's a reboot coming after a failed reboot, I doubt Warners is expecting Avengers numbers.

Goyer hinted at the number. North of 600 million. I don't think you can ignore what happened to STID. Even you posted your earlier prediction in light of STID and Gatsby is toast.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

God Tobias you are being such a drama queen. WB will decide which number they consider successful not you.

You are delusional if you think the movie makes 550mil and unlike SR is seen as great by the GA and WB will say no way to a sequel because it didn't hit your made up 600mil number. It's a reboot coming after a failed reboot, I doubt Warners is expecting Avengers numbers.

It isn't a "made up number". At least Tobias didn't make it up. I have a lot of faith in MoS, but we have to stop thinking the rest of the world is as infatuated as we are. They may become so, but we won't know until the film is released.

 

[Tobias]

It isn't a "made up number". At least Tobias didn't make it up. I have a lot of faith in MoS, but we have to stop thinking the rest of the world is as infatuated as we are. They may become so, but we won't know until the film is released.

Thanks for confirming that about a minimum number MOS needs.

Though I saw a blog saying even if MOS fails to do well WB is so desperate to launch their other characters as solos and see JL as the first step to do that they might still go ahead with a JL film. Even if MOS only makes 550 million. Other than that it's Batman all the time.

It will be interesting if WB educes it's OW prediction which it will release the week leading up. Paramount predicted 100 million. They assumed that was safe even tracking showed 110/115. The STID thing as probably caused a bit of a shock among the WB suits.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It isn't a "made up number". At least Tobias didn't make it up. I have a lot of faith in MoS, but we have to stop thinking the rest of the world is as infatuated as we are. They may become so, but we won't know until the film is released.

Do you think that if this movie misses 600mil by 20 mil like Iron Man did but is well liked there is no hope for a sequel?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think that if MoS does $550m and is extremely well received by critics and audiences, they will make the leap. They will see it like Batman Begins and the home media sales will likely bare that out. I truly believe there are WB execs that don't want to, but the money will be too great. They don't have a whole lot of big money spinners.

On the tracking, I don't think they will lower it. They have a better chance then STID at achieving these early numbers thanks simply to MoS release date.

Do you think that if this movie misses 600mil by 20 mil like Iron Man did but is well liked there is no hope for a sequel?

See above.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Home media sales aren't what they used to be.

I don't really see Into Darkness performance having anything to do with Superman's. If both Hangover (I think it's going to get killed by Fast 6) and Fast 6 underperform I think that could hint at a Man of Steel breakout.

 

[Tobias]

I think that if MoS does $550m and is extremely well received by critics and audiences, they will make the leap. They will see it like Batman Begins and the home media sales will likely bare that out. I truly believe there are WB execs that don't want to, but the money will be too great. They don't have a whole lot of big money spinners.

On the tracking, I don't think they will lower it. They have a better chance then STID at achieving these early numbers thanks simply to MoS release date.


See above.

Why does MOS have a better chance of reaching the tracking numbers?

Bigger question, there appears no science to this tracking. It was off big-time with Gatsby, STID and IM3. Why is it taken seriously?

I don't totally disagree about 550 million but w/ great DVD sales being able to sway WB to do a sequel. Though given the JL factor I'd guess that is where their focus will turn if it's only 550 million. I think a lot of WB execs are not too hot on doing Superman films as they don't see the big money there. Robinov is one of those execs. Remember MOS was sort of forced to be made. e

BB wasn't going to get a sequel then the DVD sales shocked WB and the rest is history.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Home media sales aren't what they used to be.

I don't really see Into Darkness performance having anything to do with Superman's. If both Hangover (I think it's going to get killed by Fast 6) and Fast 6 underperform I think that could hint at a Man of Steel breakout.

It is beyond just disc sales. TV rights and other such stuff is pure profit.

 

[Greeneyes]

As STID proved these tracking predictions mean nothing.

The companies already look bad. Totally missed STID and also Gatsby. IM3 to a bit too.

STID's performance has put a more sober tone on MOS predictions. A good thing. Better to not be disappointed.

My 550 million is more firm now and my 90/95 million OW.

MOS will not, I'm afraid, make the 600 million it needs to make. The post-mortems will be many but the bottom line hasn't changed from 2006. Superman is not a popular character and moreso even OS.

BTW, early tracking for SR was solid then collapsed a week or so out. I recall one reviewer really liking the film but lamenting the tracking wasn't too good and a blockbuster it wasn't going to be.

Still at it eh Tobias. You are keeping your Superman hate hidden quite well but you aren't quite managing it with people who have read your posts on here,and who know you as Doug22 from the Superman Homepage.

You are desperate for MOS and Superman to fail. If anyone reads your previous posts they will see what I mean.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Why does MOS have a better chance of reaching the tracking numbers?

Bigger question, there appears no science to this tracking. It was off big-time with Gatsby, STID and IM3. Why is it taken seriously?

I don't totally disagree about 550 million but w/ great DVD sales being able to sway WB to do a sequel. Though given the JL factor I'd guess that is where their focus will turn if it's only 550 million. I think a lot of WB execs are not too hot on doing Superman films as they don't see the big money there. Robinov is one of those execs. Remember MOS was sort of forced to be made. e

BB wasn't going to get a sequel then the DVD sales shocked WB and the rest is history.

Tracking was not off on IM3. Everywhere I went had it in the 160-191 range.

As to why I think it could land. I don't think it will be coming off the back of two strong weeks at the Box office and it is coming out at the true start of summer in the vast majority of the US. Most kids will be out. It also won't be competing for 3D and IMAX screens.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I want to know why MOS has a better chance to beat tracking as well?

If I'm wrong fine but there is no way in hell I'm predicting 120-130mil opening weekend for MOS.

I've been burned by over predicting early-mid June releases before. I'm still predicting 85-95mil with a chance to crack 100mil because 95mil is so close already. If it does better than that then fine I'm wrong again and will be pleasantly surprised.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I want to know why MOS has a better chance to beat tracking as well?

If I'm wrong fine but there is no way in hell I'm predicting 120-130mil opening weekend for MOS.

I've been burned by over predicting early-mid June releases before. I'm still predicting 85-95mil with a chance to crack 100mil because 95mil is so close already. If it does better than that then fine I'm wrong again and will be pleasantly surprised.

I am not saying it will beat tracking, I just think it has a strong chance at matching.

 

[Tobias]

I want to know why MOS has a better chance to beat tracking as well?

If I'm wrong fine but there is no way in hell I'm predicting 120-130mil opening weekend for MOS.

I've been burned by over predicting early-mid June releases before. I'm still predicting 85-95mil with a chance to crack 100mil because 95mil is so close already. If it does better than that then fine I'm wrong again and will be pleasantly surprised.

Well, take 95 million - that probably comes out to 260 million domestic box. Which is I think your prediction. Though you said it is probably off now. Even so, adjusted for inflation and ticket prices that will just about what SR would have done today.

MOS is everything the franchise needed in 2006. New direction, action, new hot suit. A look forward. If MOS had been released then things would have turned out differently. But it is what it is and we'll have to live with it and yes, SR will put a damper on MOS's potential IMO.

 

[Tobias]

I am not saying it will beat tracking, I just think it has a strong chance at matching.

It will be interesting to see how F&F and Hangover do viv a vis tracking.

I wonder if Excel will adjust his wildly high prediction down now?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It will be interesting to see how F&F and Hangover do viv a vis tracking.

I wonder if Excel will adjust his wildly high prediction down now?

This coming weekend is going to be very interesting. Two films that you would think would be competing for the same audience.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I am not saying it will beat tracking, I just think it has a strong chance at matching.

Okay. I apologize for misquoting you although my opinion still stands. I don't think it has a better chance of matching it's tracking numbers than anyother film.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Okay. I apologize for misquoting you although my opinion still stands. I don't think it has a better chance of matching it's tracking numbers than anyother film.

Well I think there are situations where a film someone might skip or even put off for a little while, ends up actually been seen that weekend. STID had stupid numbers to begin with imo. Made worse by the fact that bot male and female causal viewers had their fill the two previous weeks.

 

[Tobias]

This coming weekend is going to be very interesting. Two films that you would think would be competing for the same audience.

The tracking was off (proportionately) even more with Gatsby than with STID. And in the opposite direction.

Something must be off in the methodology. I read the comments on STID here but none make sense. Everyone seemed high on the film, it looked great, had good early reviews. It's not like in political polls where folks sometimes purposely lie.

They measure intensity or not? If not maybe they should. Nothing happened the last week like a bad review.

Historically are these kind of large misses (30% plus) all that common?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The tracking was off (proportionately) even more with Gatsby than with STID. And in the opposite direction.

Something must be off in the methodology. I read the comments on STID here but none make sense. Everyone seemed high on the film, it looked great, had good early reviews. It's not like in political polls where folks sometimes purposely lie.

They measure intensity or not? If not maybe they should. Nothing happened the last week like a bad review.

Historically are these kind of large misses (30% plus) all that common?

Well if you asked me, I would have told you they were off. Too many people were expecting a bump for STID based off the '09 film without considering many factors, including that ST just isn't that popular.

On tracking numbers. They didn't use to miss quite as much, but that was before the last few years. They use to be more conservative. Rather to come in under then vastly over. But since getting burned the last few years, especially by the Avengers, it has swung the other way.

On Gatsby. I think it is simply underestimating Leo's pull. The only two movie stars that really get the benefit during tracking are Tom Cruise and Will Smith.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't think it had anything to do with Trek's lack of popularity. I'm doing some hardcore Monday morning QBing here but I think the four year wait, the lack of a big name actor playing the villian and dumb idea not to sell the movie harder to women hurt it tremendously. And obviously they didn't do as good a job of selling it to young people.

 

[Tobias]

Well if you asked me, I would have told you they were off. Too many people were expecting a bump for STID based off the '09 film without considering many factors, including that ST just isn't that popular.

On tracking numbers. They didn't use to miss quite as much, but that was before the last few years. They use to be more conservative. Rather to come in under then vastly over. But since getting burned the last few years, especially by the Avengers, it has swung the other way.

On Gatsby. I think it is simply underestimating Leo's pull. The only two movie stars that really get the benefit during tracking are Tom Cruise and Will Smith.

So basically you are saying a sound methodology that has been tweaked to over-state the high side due to recent big misses as with Avengers.

That will make this weekend interesting. Hangover does not have the Leo factor but a good previous film so you'd think it will do close to it's tracking. Same for F&F. Is that how you see these two?