Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[db85usa]

I totally disagree with that. F&F6 will be the winner. Hangover Part III will gross unequivocally less than the original. It isn't going to be a star and it sure won't beat F&F6. Internationally, HO3 will do well though.

The problem with a movie like F&F is it will have zero legs in the domestic market. Sure, it'll open big but it's a B movie at best. F&F may win the foreign market over The Hangover III but it will suffer significant drops domestically just like it's previous installments. The Hangover movies however have made more money individually than the F&F movies. What makes you think this will change?

 

[Marvin]

WB will probably not be making any early predictions.
The variables are just too high.

 

[redp]

The problem with a movie like F&F is it will have zero legs in the domestic market. Sure, it'll open big but it's a B movie at best. F&F may win the foreign market over The Hangover III but it will suffer significant drops domestically just like it's previous installments. The Hangover movies however have made more money individually than the F&F movies. What makes you think this will change?

If I am not mistaken someone already said this...F&F5 was the start of a "new" series.(F&F5 grossed $209M if I am not wrong). F&F6 should gross just as much if not more. So, I wouldn't call that "zero legs." Hangover Part III is trying to hit the same material for a third throw. Part 1-->Part 2 had a light decrease. Part 3 should follow the same trend. The extent of the reduction is questionable but it starts at 10%. So, it's looking at ~$230M. But, this is ignoring F&F6. So, it should gross less. **Also, the horrible audience reception of the previous film doesn't make things any better.

 

[Greeneyes]

While I disagree with Tobias on most things, he is factually accurate on that point. Spider-man has long been established as having a greater draw in overseas markets than either Batman or Superman. The Raimi trilogy made major money overseas before the recent overseas market explosion.

So do I DK. He's subtly anti Superman and the franchise and he wants MOS to fail.

 

[Tobias]

I spoke directly to insider tracking and what I'm told is low $110 to high $130. Realistically and personally, I think MoS pulls $125-$140 Million. I am a box office analyst and have been since 2002. Sadly, I cannot say with whom for business reasons but it is with a reputable company. Overseas the film is well known to be released this summer. The marketing isn't on high gear yet that is very true. WB is sort of following the same route TDKR went -- under the radar until the last minute. Why though? Because it's the one movie that stands out from May until June 14th. It sorts of a "it worked before, it will work again" approach. Which is the safe way to do things.

Movie companies try to be very careful in over marketing their product. Unless if it's a huge franchise (Batman, Marvel superheroes, Transformers, etc) it comes off as desperate and backfires relatively easy as opposed to holding back as much as possible and then letting it all out. The best way to explain it is like Texas Hold'Em. You don't want to show your hand until you've got everyone suckered into a large pot.

People have known since last year when Man of Steel would hit theaters. Soon enough TV spots and commercial tie-ins will be flooding TV networks around the world reminding everyone of MoS.

Do you know how many tracking companies there are?

BTC hit STID and Gatsby - are they known as better in their predictions or was this just a case where they got it right.

Guess it's the 4 quadrants thing that is most predictive - if a film is strong in all four as was IM3 as opposed to strong in some but not all. The 4 quadrants would imply broad interest in the film.

It's hard to sort some of this as EW makes a prediction but is not a tracking firm. It is just predicting. As are others. I suppose that is why there is this variety of numbers out there. A mix of tracking numbers and a mix of just plain predictions.

 

[JOE]

The first 100 reviews should indicate whether this movie is going to do well in the BO or not. I think anything in the 80's (Rotten Tomatoes) will be good. Anything above a 90 would be stellar! I'm hoping it does, the Superman franchise needs a fresh breath of air.

 

[Tobias]

The problem with a movie like F&F is it will have zero legs in the domestic market. Sure, it'll open big but it's a B movie at best. F&F may win the foreign market over The Hangover III but it will suffer significant drops domestically just like it's previous installments. The Hangover movies however have made more money individually than the F&F movies. What makes you think this will change?

What will be interesting is MOS's UK debut. IM3 did huge but last week F&F did almost as well. Will Henry give a boost to the UK numbers. What did SR do in the UK? 30 million plus? Can't quite recall.

 

[KingKane88]

Not may people check out latest trailers on Internet, most of US movie goers have seen MOS trailer #2 and that trailer has created a certain impression of the movie, whether that will be able to pull in general audiences remains to be seen.

For Overseas viewers, they are not promoting MOS as much, no TV spots have been released in Asian market as yet, infact I am sure many people who go out to see Marvel comic book movies like Iron Man 3 have any idea that movie like MOS even exists (here in Asia.)

I cannot see this movie making as much as The Amazing Spider-Man, no matter how good the movie is.

Where are you located in Asia? In some parts of Asia MOS is not being released until end of June, and as late as August 30th in Japan (imagine having to wait until end of August? )

BTW, said this years ago, and I'm sticking with it.. 700-750Mil WW.

 

[Dr. Fortress]

Where are you located in Asia? In some parts of Asia MOS is not being released until end of June, and as late as August 30th in Japan (imagine having to wait until end of August? )

BTW, said this years ago, and I'm sticking with it.. 700-750Mil WW.

Good prediction. Don't get me wrong, I think WB would be really happy with those numbers but, I personally feel that they "S" it takes in 800Mil+

 

[robot]

Anyone knows why Warner Brothers is not promoting or marketing MOS overseas? I have yet to see a single movie poster in any theater here, nor seen any trailers, nor heard anything about MOS here... And I think this is the same with most countries.

Doesn't WB know that in order for a movie nowadays to hit the huge numbers is to do well overseas, like have 70% of it's take from OS? Ironman 3 on the other hand has seen extremely smart marketing overseas. Their ads / billboards / poster / etc are plasted all over the place. They even shot a special sequence for the show starring local Chinese actors to make sure they make tons of money there and it's paid off.. making more than $100 million in China alone inside of 1 week. Avatar made $2 billion overseas... are WB executives sleeping?

 

[DKDetective]

Where is "here"?

 

[robot]

Where is "here"?

Malaysia.

Every blockbuster will at least have trailers / posters months in advanced. It's now 3 weeks to go, not a single mention of MOS. I think it's similar in most asian countries, as far as I am hearing.. also, most likely elsewhere in the world. It's like the movie is not even going to be released (but it is).

And I couldn't find the release date in China either.. is it even going to be released there???

 

[Tobias]

Anyone knows why Warner Brothers is not promoting or marketing MOS overseas? I have yet to see a single movie poster in any theater here, nor seen any trailers, nor heard anything about MOS here... And I think this is the same with most countries.

Doesn't WB know that in order for a movie nowadays to hit the huge numbers is to do well overseas, like have 70% of it's take from OS? Ironman 3 on the other hand has seen extremely smart marketing overseas. Their ads / billboards / poster / etc are plasted all over the place. They even shot a special sequence for the show starring local Chinese actors to make sure they make tons of money there and it's paid off.. making more than $100 million in China alone inside of 1 week. Avatar made $2 billion overseas... are WB executives sleeping?

This is the 64K question.

It makes no sense. WB can have the most action-packed film out there but if no one knows about it then no one will show up.

I'm holding my OS prediction to no more than 300 million, similar to SR adjusted for inflation and all, because the marketin is minimal for MOS.

best explanation I read was on a general movie site and someone said WB may feel MOS won't do well OS. That SR's example is like a max of what it can do. So why spend millions to promote if it won't make much difference in the outcome. Still don't like it - it's like waving the white flag.

 

[Tobias]

Malaysia.

Every blockbuster will at least have trailers / posters months in advanced. It's now 3 weeks to go, not a single mention of MOS. I think it's similar in most asian countries, as far as I am hearing.. also, most likely elsewhere in the world. It's like the movie is not even going to be released (but it is).

And I couldn't find the release date in China either.. is it even going to be released there???

WB is screwing up the marketing OS big time IMO. That said, I can't believe MOS won't be released in China. SR was released there though it did not do well. I can't find a release date and assume that maybe it has not yet been set.

 

[robot]

This is the 64K question.

It makes no sense. WB can have the most action-packed film out there but if no one knows about it then no one will show up.

I'm holding my OS prediction to no more than 300 million, similar to SR adjusted for inflation and all, because the marketin is minimal for MOS.

Maybe WB doesn't think MOS will do gangbusters OS anyway, so they are not "wasting" a lot of money of marketing.

But here's the thing though. I think MOS will do GREAT OS if they got the word out... SR didn't do well for 2 reasons:

1. The main one being it actually wasn't good. (word of mouth weren't there). Bad script, bad acting, boring overall, except for the Plane rescue scene.

2. It was 7 years ago when the OS market isn't quite as large as it is today.

Also, MOS seems like a great movie and I bet with even a minimal amount of marketing to let people know it exists, it's gonna have legs and makes mega bucks!!!

I really think WB is dropping the ball here and needs to fire a bunch of ppl.

 

[Tobias]

But here's the thing though. I think MOS will do GREAT OS if they got the word out... SR didn't do well for 2 reasons:

1. The main one being it actually wasn't good. (word of mouth weren't there). Bad script, bad acting, boring overall, except for the Plane rescue scene.

2. It was 7 years ago when the OS market isn't quite as large as it is today.

Also, MOS seems like a great movie and I bet with even a minimal amount of marketing to let people know it exists, it's gonna have legs and makes mega bucks!!!

I really think WB is dropping the ball here and needs to fire a bunch of ppl.

You have more faith in MOS than WB does. At least it's potential OS. LOL. But yeah, if you don't try you'll never know. And guess we won't ever know what might have been had WB gone with balls to the walls marketing OS.

 

[robot]

You have more faith in MOS than WB does. At least it's potential OS. LOL. But yeah, if you don't try you'll never know.

That's why I think WB is making a serious mistake. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy... they think it's not gonna do well, so does nothing to get the word out, and thus, when it doens't do well, they'll say, 'see told you so'.

 

[Tobias]

That's why I think WB is making a serious mistake. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy... they think it's not gonna do well, so does nothing to get the word out, and thus, when it doens't do well, they'll say, 'see told you so'.

I think WB is of two minds re: Superman. Some execs are gung ho for a revitalized franchise while others want to focus on other characters instead. Robinov was in the latter camp at the time of SR. He wasn't in charge then and SR got good promotion OS. He is in charge now and MOS isn't being promoted OS. Coincidence? Who knows.

 

[DKDetective]

There is nothing on Earth to support your speculation. All of the industry buzz regarding Man of Steel since it entered production has been extremely positive and has indicated that Warner Bros. is very pleased with the film and confident in it. If anything, overconfident, hence the uneven marketing campaign. I'm afraid that UNLIKE Jor-El, you ARE prone to making "wild, unsupported statements."

 

[robot]

If that's the case, then Robinov just lost my respect.

 

[robot]

There is nothing on Earth to support your speculation. All of the industry buzz regarding Man of Steel since it entered production has been extremely positive and has indicated that Warner Bros. is very pleased with the film and confident in it. If anything, overconfident, hence the uneven marketing campaign. I'm afraid that UNLIKE Jor-El, you ARE prone to making "wild, unsupported statements."

I agree. I think WB is very proud of this show.. still doesn't answer the question why they are going out of their way to keep this show a secret OS?????? Not even a single poster???

 

[Tobias]

There is nothing on Earth to support your speculation. All of the industry buzz regarding Man of Steel since it entered production has been extremely positive and has indicated that Warner Bros. is very pleased with the film and confident in it. If anything, overconfident, hence the uneven marketing campaign. I'm afraid that UNLIKE Jor-El, you ARE prone to making "wild, unsupported statements."

Well marketing in some places like Malaysia is totally absent. 3 weeks out. What is that about. Marvel was sure IM3 would be huge and yet went over-the-top in OS marketing.

Lack of any trailers in some OS countries is not a sign of overconfidence IMO, it's a sign of stupidity. Nothing is a given, nothing is guaranteed and especially with films. Look at STID.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Still have no idea how this film will really do? Part of me wants to think it will explode but the other part thinks it may just be a relative hit.

 

[robot]

Well marketing in some places like Malaysia is totally absent. 3 weeks out. What is that about. Marvel was sure IM3 would be huge and yet went over-the-top in OS marketing.

Lack of any trailers in some OS countries is not a sign of overconfidence IMO, it's a sign of stupidity. Nothing is a given, nothing is guaranteed and especially with films. Look at STID.

At this point I'll have to agree with Tobias.

If WB is confident of a great product and NOT promote it, that is just pure Stupidity...

Great Products + Great Marketing usually equals BIG MONEY!!! And the biggest money is OS! Even if the Studio's percentage take OS is not as great as the US, a big Box Office number worldwide will sell the franchise and WB can capitalize on all their other DC characters like Marvel is doing.

 

[Tobias]

At this point I'll have to agree with Tobias.

If WB is confident of a great product and NOT promote it, that is just pure Stupidity...

Great Products + Great Marketing usually equals BIG MONEY!!! And the biggest money is OS! Even if the Studio's percentage take OS is not as great as the US, a big Box Office number worldwide will sell the franchise and WB can capitalize on all their other DC characters like Marvel is doing.

The weak marketing OS makes it a hard call on the OS box. SR made 180 million or so OS. Since then ticket prices are up, more venues and more 3D. That should guarantee based on 180 7 years ago 240/250 this go. Nolan and Snyder and hopefully good WOM should have an impact maybe upping it another 50 million. We have to keep our fingers crossed it does 300 million OS. Anything less will be a big problem for WB IMO.