Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Tobias]

Marvel loves using those wide release numbers to build momentum pre domestic release. There's nothing like promoting a movie by saying it's the number one movie in the world or it's already close to a billion in so and so days...
This really payed off on their last two but it helped the first Thor a great deal as well.

Even other wide releases such as Transformers 3 don't get the asian markets till later on.

WB really should have pushed for a mega wide release here. Superman, unlike ant man, is known everywhere imo.

Yeah, and one of the USA Today movie guys thinks Thor beats MOS at the box because of Thor's expected huge foreign take.

On a positive note. The lack of a wide release means Japan, SK and presumably China (no date announced there) won't debut till late August.

So, even if WB does no promotion in those countries but the film is as good as they say it is word will have reached these countries by then and the lack of promotion won't hurt as much.

 

[Superhero 101]

With Every Tv Spot I see on TV and with the recent action packed trailer I really have a feeling this Movie will make 800 million easily at the Box office Heck with a Good word of mouth which i am sure this movie will have I think it can get to 900 million.

 

[Mad Love]

The amazing action does lend itself to repeat viewings.

 

[Liam_H]

Yeah, and one of the USA Today movie guys thinks Thor beats MOS at the box because of Thor's expected huge foreign take.

On a positive note. The lack of a wide release means Japan, SK and presumably China (no date announced there) won't debut till late August.

So, even if WB does no promotion in those countries but the film is as good as they say it is word will have reached these countries by then and the lack of promotion won't hurt as much.

Or it'll just be pirated.

 

[robot]

Well, if MOS bombs OS and it is traced to a weak showing in Asia I suspect the marketing person who decided against marketing there will be in a heap of trouble.

It would be nice if someone managed to get to a WB marketing person and ask why no marketing in Asia? What was the thought behind that? Unfortunately I'd imagine WB would not give an answer.

If that happens, I can imagine Warner saying, 'See, I told you there were no reasons to spend marketing dollars in Asia' Top executives hardly take any blame for anything.

 

[GREEN =w= DAY]

with the recent trailers, tv spots, and hype building up, i really think MoS will be the movie to beat this summer and even this year

 

[robot]

Yeah, and one of the USA Today movie guys thinks Thor beats MOS at the box because of Thor's expected huge foreign take.

On a positive note. The lack of a wide release means Japan, SK and presumably China (no date announced there) won't debut till late August.

So, even if WB does no promotion in those countries but the film is as good as they say it is word will have reached these countries by then and the lack of promotion won't hurt as much.

But without a strong OS marketing, how will they get good numbers?? No matter how well they do in the US, it'll still be small potatoes when compared to WorldWide earnings of other blockbusters... You need a 'seed' of the population who goes and watch a movie before WOM gets under way... if no one watches it to begin with or not enough, then WOM won't matter that much either...

With Every Tv Spot I see on TV and with the recent action packed trailer I really have a feeling this Movie will make 800 million easily at the Box office Heck with a Good word of mouth which i am sure this movie will have I think it can get to 900 million.

It should easily make above 1 billion (IF the movie is as good or better than the trailers), if marketing was done properly OS... and if it still makes a billion inspite of lack of marketing, then with marketing, it would have make even more... No matter how you look at it, WB have dropped the ball on this one OS...

 

[robot]

It would be nice if someone managed to get to a WB marketing person and ask why no marketing in Asia? What was the thought behind that? Unfortunately I'd imagine WB would not give an answer.

I did post a question about the lack of any kind of marketing in my country and the rest of asia to the Man of Steel facebook page but no reply, of course...

 

[mclay18]

There have been those rumors, yes.

I really hope they don't pan out. Marvel Studios was incredibly lucky that Iron Man took off like it did. If it wasn't a hit, The Avengers wouldn't have been made and that post-credit scene with SLJ wouldn't have panned out.

Putting a post-credit scene for Man of Steel is counting the chickens before they've hatched. Save that for the MOS sequel and JL/World's Finest.

 

[Marvin]

With Every Tv Spot I see on TV and with the recent action packed trailer I really have a feeling this Movie will make 800 million easily at the Box office Heck with a Good word of mouth which i am sure this movie will have I think it can get to 900 million.

Whereas most people had a passing interest in the property half a year ago, now that MOS is showing it's spectacle, more and more people are seeing it's drawing power for the given that it is.

The real question I have is simple. A more condensed and concise(less reuse) version of Trailer 4, at the superbowl....how does that not happen. Any other film and it's a given.
I thinking that would have easily won the broadcast....easily, especially with RDJ staring at the screen...
I'd also go so far as to flash the hashtag #THISAINTYOURDADDY'SSUPERMANNOMO.

In hindsight, perhaps it's not all that needed, but I still cannot see how it's not a given. Would have been half a years worth of water cooler talk.

 

[Tobias]

Whereas most people had a passing interest in the property half a year ago, now that MOS is showing it's spectacle, more and more people are seeing it's drawing power for the given that it is.

The real question I have is simple. A more condensed and concise(less reuse) version of Trailer 4, at the superbowl....how does that not happen. Any other film and it's a given.
I thinking that would have easily won the broadcast....easily, especially with RDJ staring at the screen...
I'd also go so far as to flash the hashtag #THISAINTYOURDADDY'SSUPERMANNOMO.

In hindsight, perhaps it's not all that needed, but I still cannot see how it's not a given. Would have been half a years worth of water cooler talk.

Super-bowl ads are uber-expensive. While WB seems confident in their final product they are playing it safe money/marketing wise just in case. No super-bowl ad and little spent on OS marketing. Just in case.

 

[Juha Bach]

Whereas most people had a passing interest in the property half a year ago, now that MOS is showing it's spectacle, more and more people are seeing it's drawing power for the given that it is.

The real question I have is simple. A more condensed and concise(less reuse) version of Trailer 4, at the superbowl....how does that not happen. Any other film and it's a given.
I thinking that would have easily won the broadcast....easily, especially with RDJ staring at the screen...
I'd also go so far as to flash the hashtag #THISAINTYOURDADDY'SSUPERMANNOMO.

In hindsight, perhaps it's not all that needed, but I still cannot see how it's not a given. Would have been half a years worth of water cooler talk.

They didnt have a super bowl ad for the dark knight rises, i guess its not a WB thing. However, like when they showed a UK tv spot in the English FA cup final, they can release an international tv spot for MOS on Saturdays Uefa champions league final whose viewership can reach up to 400 million.

 

[Tobias]

I did post a question about the lack of any kind of marketing in my country and the rest of asia to the Man of Steel facebook page but no reply, of course...

Well, on general movie sites some are noting the lack of or minimal OS marketing for MOS. It's an odd thing and I've seen some speculation as to why.

One that makes sense is that within WB there is a debate about whether they really want to do expensive comic book films or try to develop less expensive franchises like Harry Potter. There is apparently disagreement on this.

I think WB will continue with Batman forever, but their track record otherwise - SR, GL, last 2 Reeve films and Supergirl has not been good. There is just so much money for development and I think there are 2 camps in WB as to where to spend that money.

IMO ultimately they need to create an autonomous DC film company. Let it raise it's own development money and all.

Otherwise this friction w/in WB will continue and I think it may partially explain what is going on OS.

 

[\S/JcDc\S/]

I said this in the main thread, I am hoping Superman gets strong foreign support like spiderman always gets. If the domestic take is a bit low, the foreign could still pull the worldwide numbers up enough to be a hit. TAS made 260 mil domestic and still did over 700 mil worldwide.

 

[Juha Bach]

Well, on general movie sites some are noting the lack of or minimal OS marketing for MOS. It's an odd thing and I've seen some speculation as to why.

One that makes sense is that within WB there is a debate about whether they really want to do expensive comic book films or try to develop less expensive franchises like Harry Potter. There is apparently disagreement on this.

I think WB will continue with Batman forever, but their track record otherwise - SR, GL, last 2 Reeve films and Supergirl has not been good. There is just so much money for development and I think there are 2 camps in WB as to where to spend that money.

IMO ultimately they need to create an autonomous DC film company. Let it raise it's own development money and all.

Otherwise this friction w/in WB will continue and I think it may partially explain what is going on OS.

Mere speculation and propaganda. There is no friction within WB about CB movies. It has already been stated that we should soon expect announcements on future DC movie adaptations. WB is very serious on DC and Comic book films especially with the success of marvels avengers which am sure they want to replicate. For more read this articles:
http://www.geekscape.net/dcs-john-c...e-regarding-justice-league-wonder-woman-films

 

[Marvin]

I said this in the main thread, I am hoping Superman gets strong foreign support like spiderman always gets. If the domestic take is a bit low, the foreign could still pull the worldwide numbers up enough to be a hit. TAS made 260 mil domestic and still did over 700 mil worldwide.

I think many people are looking at more the STID model.
Modest domestic, Modest Foreign.

 

[Tobias]

Mere speculation and propaganda. There is no friction within WB about CB movies. It has already been stated that we should soon expect announcements on future DC movie adaptations. WB is very serious on DC and Comic book films especially with the success of marvels avengers which am sure they want to replicate. For more read this articles:
http://www.geekscape.net/dcs-john-c...e-regarding-justice-league-wonder-woman-films

Poster from Asia are reporting zero promotion 3 weeks before the film comes out. Why is the question.

More so than MOS's domestic box, WB is going to be looking at the OS numbers. That is where the money is. That is largely how IM3, the Avengers and TDKR all got to a billion plus.

We all want JL next up from WB. To do JL WB is going to look especially at MOS's OS box. It just seems that they logically should be doing balls to the walls promotion OS - Europe, Asia, Africa, S. America. It doesn't seem to be happening per a lot of posters and especially those from Asia. It doesn't quite make sense.

 

[Tobias]

I think many people are looking at more the STID model.
Modest domestic, Modest Foreign.

Looking like 200 million domestic for STID but more OS. Maybe 250 - 300 million. I think Paramount would be happy with 500 million WW. I believe, either way, Paramount has firmly committed to a sequel. They just need to bring in star power next time.

 

[Marvin]

I personally see the Transformers BO model for this one. However which TF I can't quite tell yet.

 

[Tobias]

I personally see the Transformers BO model for this one. However which TF I can't quite tell yet.

Goes w/o saying that this is the film that was needed in 2006. Or, short of that, the film proposed by the guy who backed out cause he was afraid to fly (Ratner?). It had a lot of similar elements. Krypton still around, an invasion force from Krypton on Earth. It may have featured Zod - not sure on that one. One version had a cliffhanger ending with Supes dead and taken up into the ship....to be resolved in the sequel. It was as action-packed as MOS looks to be.

 

[GreenKToo]

I think its a lock for 600 mill. how much over it goes is the only question I have.

 

[db85usa]

I may be mistaken but didn't The Dark Knight Rises have similar overseas marketing tactics? That is practically not much advertised overseas until close to the release dates in those markets?

I do know in my area I am seeing TV spots on a lot of channels and have heard local radio shows talking about how hyped they are to see MoS. Maybe WB doesn't want to advertise in certain markets due to low returns on past films?

Who knows. This is Superman though. If I'm CEO, I'm going all in for this project and unleashing a plethora of ads on tv/radio. Who cares. Better late than never IMO.

 

[robot]

I may be mistaken but didn't The Dark Knight Rises have similar overseas marketing tactics? That is practically not much advertised overseas until close to the release dates in those markets?

I do know in my area I am seeing TV spots on a lot of channels and have heard local radio shows talking about how hyped they are to see MoS. Maybe WB doesn't want to advertise in certain markets due to low returns on past films?

Who knows. This is Superman though. If I'm CEO, I'm going all in for this project and unleashing a plethora of ads on tv/radio. Who cares. Better late than never IMO.

The Dark Knight Rises has posters and trailers here... and Coming Soon posters months in advanced.. but there was nothing for MOS.. it's like they completely forgot they are going to release the movie here.. or, they are too cheap to print extra posters.. or, just pure incompetence...

Basically, it's like a top secret government project and if anyone dares to even leak it out, they'll be killed.

 

[JOE]

600 WW would be respectable. Although TASM came off a terrible SM3, the fan base is still there overseas which absolutely love Spidey. What MOS has over TASM is the anticipation, IMO. This movie seems a lot bigger and with all the rumors of this movie kick-starting a JLA movie, you just never know. With Snyder it's a wild card. Looks great, but at the end of the day we can't get our hopes up too much until some solid reviews come out.

My prediction would be 150-200 domestic and 350-400 overseas, and that's anything but modest for the overseas market.

 

[Juha Bach]

600 WW would be respectable. Although TASM came off a terrible SM3, the fan base is still there overseas which absolutely love Spidey. What MOS has over TASM is the anticipation, IMO. This movie seems a lot bigger and with all the rumors of this movie kick-starting a JLA movie, you just never know. With Snyder it's a wild card. Looks great, but at the end of the day we can't get our hopes up too much until some solid reviews come out.

My prediction would be 150-200 domestic and 350-400 overseas, and that's anything but modest for the overseas market.

That is probably the lowest domestic box office prediction i have seen in all of the internet. The movie is already tracking over 100 mill opening weekend and what you are predicting would make it one of the biggest flops in film history.

I think the effect superman returns will on this movie's BO is a tad bit overestimated. SR was not a bad movie, it just didnt live up to expectations. If MOS was coming of an atrocity like Batman and robin which nearly killed a the batman franchise then we would have a problem.