Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 10

[MrMaooz]

I was....born when ID came out.

 

[tomoe]

In what world is $300m domestically for a reboot not big money?

300 million is fantastic, but if MOS had dropped just 50% it's first weekend and 40% each subsequent week, it would have reached 400 million. 40% drops aren't even considered that great a hold. I really think WOM more than the competition hurt it. And I don't think the sequel will open nearly as big. However, if the sequel is amazing, then it will have legs to finish with more than MOS I think. The only way I can see it being amazing is if they change or at least add superior members to the team.

 

[Princess Denise]

MOS's Monday actual is out:

$3,044,020

Domestic Total: $251,621,616
WW Total: $523,321,616

 

[JangoNate]

I was....born when ID came out.

Being that I first encountered a quote of this statement before knowing the context, I seriously though you were saying you were born when Identification (ID) came out. I pictured a super old person, but knowing the context I see that you are much younger than that.

I was 10 when it came out and it rocked my socks off. Thinking of picking up the Blu Ray to watch on Thursday.

 

[writer0327]

300 million is fantastic, but if MOS had dropped just 50% it's first weekend and 40% each subsequent week, it would have reached 400 million. 40% drops aren't even considered that great a hold. I really think WOM more than the competition hurt it. And I don't think the sequel will open nearly as big. However, if the sequel is amazing, then it will have legs to finish with more than MOS I think. The only way I can see it being amazing is if they change or at least add superior members to the team.

I think it can be amazing with more emphasis on humanity and better character development. If they gave us more character in MOS it would have been amazing.

You might not need wholesale changes in personnel, but rather changes in their focus. Time to bring out the characters. You don't need a lot of action. TDK, Spider-Man 2 didn't have a ton of action, but the character building was fantastic.

 

[ElDuderino]

MOS's Monday actual is out:

$3,044,020

Domestic Total: $251,621,616
WW Total: $523,321,616

I was hoping for a little higher, but this is pretty good. This makes $20 million this week a lock, which makes $300 million a lock.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

But wouldn't you blame M Night Shyamalan, since he's responsible for the screenplay and the direction of the film? Will Smith has way too many hits to be the focal point to blame.

MNS certainly deserves much of the blame, and the poor bastard will indeed be a focus of criticism. But here's why Will Smith should (but probably wont) take a major hit:

1 He wrote the original story and was the main impetus for the films development
2 Hes the Producer
3 His brother-in-law is a producer
4 His wife is a producer
5 He's the lead
6 His son is the other lead
7 He hand-picked MNS to direct
8 He had final say on the supporting cast
9 The movie is filled with Hubbard-esque themes. (rumor is hes a closet scientologist)

This is Will Smith's "baby" through and through. Lucky for him, his career will be fine. he can just go back to doing inoffensive sequels to his earlier hits pretty much indefinitely.

For MNS, After Earth might be one of the final nails in his coffin. At least until he finishes his new screenplay for The Seventh Sense. (shudder)

on-topic: despite my issues with MoS, I find that I'm relieved that its doing well at the box office. Im also relieved that it wasnt a breakout mega-hit, as that wouldve made changes (ie improvements) for the sequel less likely and it probably wouldve fast-tracked a JL movie. This looks like the ideal outcome, assuming a 650 million final tally.

 

[JOE]

Ending WW predictions have to be at what, 600-650M?

 

[ConnorKon-El]

I was 2 when ID came out in 96.
Wow. I sometimes forget I'm one of the younger members on here.

Anyway youth is awesome

Yeah I'm starting to slowly, optimistically think MOS can hold off long enough to make 300 million domestically.

 

[Tra-El]

Looking at poll above,

Who voted that MOS will make less than 200 mil ? less than 300 mil ? Less than 400 ? lol.

Also, all those who voted that MOS will make 800 mil / 900 mil /1 bil. / 1.5 bil. are wrong



(I'm assuming that those are world wide numbers.)

Edit: I forgot that I voted for 800 mil.

MOS is pretty much performing the exact way I thought it would and I couldn't be more happy with these numbers. Sure things could have been better but that stands for practically anything ever created. Point is, MOS had HUGE circumstances that could of both hurt AND helped it and it seems both collided.

In the end, these are great numbers and the good certainly outweigh the bad in the overall resurrection of the Super-franchise. It's a healthy beginning BY FAR.

My name is under $700 million on the poll and my OW prediction was pretty damn close. I bumped WW projections to $900 WW when things got heated and I upped it but realistically, this is performing exactly the way I thought it would and couldn't be happier for the kickstart.

 

[Sup3rman81]

300 million is fantastic, but if MOS had dropped just 50% it's first weekend and 40% each subsequent week, it would have reached 400 million. 40% drops aren't even considered that great a hold. I really think WOM more than the competition hurt it. And I don't think the sequel will open nearly as big. However, if the sequel is amazing, then it will have legs to finish with more than MOS I think. The only way I can see it being amazing is if they change or at least add superior members to the team.

Sorry but it was competition. If WOM was bad then this movie would have dropped bad this past weekend. The movie is stabilizing and has shown good but not great holds against a flurry of new movies every weekend. Its going to reach and possibly pass 300m and should finish with a WW total over 700m

 

[UrNuts2]

adjusting my 7th July domestic total to 271m

 

[JOE]

This movie mellowed out too quick.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Yeah the big drop in the 2nd week precluded the possibility of a huge hit. Its doing a good overseas and midweek numbers seem decent so it will still finish in good shape. 600 million is a critical milestone. Guaranteed at this point?

 

[Sup3rman81]

The box office OS is a huge win for MOS and I can guarantee it will propel MOS2 to over 1B. Domestically it's done well with weekly movie releases and 300m for a reboot is a great sign

 

[robot]

Yet MOS doing pretty good OS with the poor marketing.
Btw I really think by casting an asian actress as lex body guard can really expand further the OS. She could be the 2nd FAORA.

YOu are looking at total which is going yo be huge. A blockbuster like superman should do upwards of 70 percent of total from os when marketed well. That's why I said the missed opportunity to earn 900m or 1b. With 300m domestic n 70 percent os that translate to 1b. Wb just lost at least 300m by ignoring most of the os market. Just to give you an example they bought a billboard near my place and put up mos a few days before it launched then replaced it with pr the day it launched. They basically put all their marketing power behind pr and even giving it the superior launch date all to the detriment to mos potential. Now if pr doesn't do stellar numbers wb would have bet on the wrong horse

 

[Sup3rman81]

Yeah the big drop in the 2nd week precluded the possibility of a huge hit. Its doing a good overseas and midweek numbers seem decent so it will still finish in good shape. 600 million is a critical milestone. Guaranteed at this point?

The movie should surpass 600m and get to at least 700m. The film is a huge hit. WB needs to plan its release better next time to avoid so much competition

 

[UrNuts2]

Yeah the big drop in the 2nd week precluded the possibility of a huge hit. Its doing a good overseas and midweek numbers seem decent so it will still finish in good shape. 600 million is a critical milestone. Guaranteed at this point?

yeah, at this point i'd eat my oldest set of socks twice if it does less than 650ww .. i see it within striking distance of of 600ww come 7th July

 

[robot]

The box office OS is a huge win for MOS and I can guarantee it will propel MOS2 to over 1B. Domestically it's done well with weekly movie releases and 300m for a reboot is a great sign

THis is guaranteed if the movie doesn't suck n they actually marketed it well ww. In fact mos would have been touching the 1b mark if they did their os marketing instead of ignoring it

 

[robot]

Btw just saw mos for the 3rd time on imax. Its as good as the first time. The second time was the best

 

[Sup3rman81]

THis is guaranteed if the movie doesn't suck n they actually marketed it well ww. In fact mos would have been touching the 1b mark if they did their os marketing instead of ignoring it

I honestly do not see it making 1B even if they had marketed the way you felt they should have. For a movie you feel was loosely marketed it has done very well.

 

[ConanLives]

I was hoping for a little higher, but this is pretty good. This makes $20 million this week a lock, which makes $300 million a lock.

What do you see MOS generating from Friday-Sunday based on Monday figure?

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Its not a huge hit man. IM3 was a huge it. TA was a huge hit. Hunger Games was a huge hit based on its budget/newness/early projections. TDKR was a huge hit. In 2013, MoS is NO ONES idea of a "huge hit". The bar is much higher than it was in, say , 2006. And stop making meaningless predictions about (at this point) hypothetical future events. It doesnt even qualify as an opinion, much less a "fact".

Given the enormous investment, MoS will finish as a moderate hit, a succesful reboot, and will leave the franchise in very good shape for the future. Full stop. Try and be satisfied with that. (ASM had a comparable budget, earned 750 million ww, got considerably better reviews, and nobody is referring to it as a "HUGE HIT".)

 

[UrNuts2]

What do you see MOS generating from Friday-Sunday based on Monday figure?

i'm goin' with 11.3m for the week to Thu & 12m weekend given that it's holiday weekend & seeing there's not much love for LR imo

 

[robot]

I honestly do not see it making 1B even if they had marketed the way you felt they should have. For a movie you feel was loosely marketed it has done very well.

JUst look at all the big blockbusters today. They do 70 to 80 percent of their total from os. Its just mathematics. Mos will do 300 domestic n at 70 percent os it will hit 1b. So yeah I blame the os marketing.

PACIFIC rim is marketed well os. Mark my word it will do 70 percent or so OS