Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 10

[InJustice]

I'm surprised so many people are happy to watch movies via bootleg. I suspect there is still a huge population that prefer quality. BTW, I've been keeping an eye on pirate bay, and the only MOS is the camera-recorded version. Looks like none of the reviewers or WB or DC Comics employees leaked their dvd screeners.

Never underestimate the mentality of people and their money, if they can find a cheap/free option, they WILL abuse it. Plus, why give Japan August...? Doesn't really make sense unless I'm missing the context of that release date..

 

[writer0327]

I'm surprised so many people are happy to watch movies via bootleg. I suspect there is still a huge population that prefer quality. BTW, I've been keeping an eye on pirate bay, and the only MOS is the camera-recorded version. Looks like none of the reviewers or WB or DC Comics employees leaked their dvd screeners.

I have seen some excellent bootlegs lately, MOS wasn't one of them. But yeah now that folks mention it, the chances of a excellent boot making its way to Japan by August seems pretty high. Why are they so late with MOS?

 

[Princess Denise]

Brazil and Japan.

TASM made 30M in Brazil and 39M in Japan. I think it only made more in the UK and China. Even though MOS is outpacing TASM in the UK and China I have no idea if MOS holds the same appeal in Brazil and Japan.

 

[113]

Isn't MOS already at $47 million or so? I would think with about 10 more days to go in China $60 million is almost certain.

I'm sticking with my mini-prediction of $70-75m in China.

Also, $700m ww is a lock, that's a bare minimum at this point.

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

I'm sticking with my mini-prediction of $70-75m in China.

Also, $700m ww is a lock, that's a bare minimum at this point.

I agree about $700 million being the minimum WW but as far as China goes I have no clue except that close to $60 million ( with $47m being the current total) at the minimum seems reasonable.

 

[ThreadPool]

Yeah that's what I thought as well, so if that is the case, we should applaud anyone gutsy enough to come to an English language forum and engage in a discussion not in their native tongue. I can't speak another language, and I really admire those that can.

Lol! Yeah, I've had a bunch of friends and coworkers that could speak more than one language. I always feel like I've wasted so much time by not learning a second language.
On topic:
Man... The more I think about, the more I can see a Superman/Batman movie absolutely KILLING at the B.O.! It's just WB/DC needs a plan. One that they stick to. No more of this just throwing out movie every once in a while crap.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Just bare with us and hope the sequel is more intimate and character driven while still have the spectacle of a superhero film.
I feel there was so much action and sci-fi thrown into the film to gather people's interest in Superman again, and also making it fresh for the general public. I understand some people weren't happy or that impressed with what we got but I have a feeling the sequel will feel more like a traditional superman story in tone.
Snyder has gotten the world's attention. It's up to him to improve with Goyer and give us another good but improved film.

I hope so. But I don't consider this a Batman Begins. That one I loved. Problem is, this one is making a lot more money than BB did and I don't think it is as well written. Why would WB think they are doing anything wrong? Someone at WB thought this was done well...lord knows someone there has a weird sense of "good" (admittedly it's just my opinion)....Green Lantern, Jonah Hex...now I'm not loving MoS. I'm almost afraid of a Flash movie. (The one I'm MOST interesting in). WB is not earning my trust for a while now. So...whoever is really driving their direction....MoS making all this money is certainly not going to convince them "Wow...maybe I should rethink things?" ....More like, "Wow...I'm a genius!"

Superman is always going to make money and that might fool WB into a false sense of accomplishment.

I agree.

I might be alone in this, but I personally feel that out of the three Batman films and MOS, the movie with the weakest story and worst dialogue is TDK (which Goyer had the least involvement in). Don't get me wrong, I love that movie, but so much of the Joker's plan hinges on people being idiots. And WOW does Batman have some terrible lines.

Anyway, I want the same team back for the MOS sequel; if they make something as good as MOS, I'll be ecstatic. If they manage to make it better, I'll be over the freakin' moon.

At some point, I'm wanting more than this. (Agree about TDK btw...the Joker isn't smart...Gotham is filled with idiots) Transformers movies make a ton of money too in spite of the critics....I don't want Trans-Superman.

There is annoying amount of pretentiousnes associated with Supes that does more harm than good.

You may have something there. Maybe WB was disappearing up their own butts with this script...trying to be too "deep" and "angst-y".

And THAT'S what excites me. The potential to show the worlds reaction to this alien being. Show the government deciding what to do. Show the backlash. Yes this alien saved us but at what cost ? A good chunk of Metropolis was decimated. Introduce Luthor using it to his advantage. Show him rebuilding Metro and use him as the main supporter for the Anti-Superman group.
Focus more on DP and Kal and Lois's growing relationship.
Man the sequel has great potential to be something special.

Fingers crossed.

Those who will whine, moan, and ***** about anything. That's fantastic money as far as I'm concerned. That'll put it in the top 30 biggest movies of all time domestically.

I can't help but think Superman has the potential for much more. Any Supes movies is going to make money like this. Compare this to Batman Begins....that one was loved by the audience and MoS is going to make far more despite mixed reviews and obvious flaws.

This week's Sunday to Monday drop is far better than the 63% drop from last Sunday-Monday.

I heard there is some kind of holiday in Canada for Monday...that could be have an artificial positive effect.

I think the reason why certain people aren't fond of this Superman is due to the fact that the transition from the old Superman to the current Superman has never been made.

For the past few decades now, comics and superheroes have began to move away from being cheesy and aimed at kids to being more mature and more aimed at adults. This transformation reached an all-time-high in the past few years specifically since more comic book movies started to be made. Most of the big superheroes, such as Batman and Spider-Man, haven't had the problem of people not being used to a particular version of them to the same extent Superman has with MOS because they had casual transitions from cheesy to more mature. Superman did not.

Let's take Batman for example since he arguably had the best transition and that is also arguably part of the reason why he is the top dog of superheroes at the moment. We did not go directly from the campy Adam West TV series to the gritty Nolan films. We naturally got there overtime. First, we had the Burton/Schumacher franchise. With the exception of Batman & Robin, all 3 films were still darker than the Adam West series and took themselves more seriously yet they still weren't as dark as the Batman comics we know. However, they were a step in the right direction. We eventually got the right tone of the Batman of the comics with Batman Begins. Had it not been for that transition, Batman Begins might not have had the critical praise that it did. That would have possibly been the case if BB came out back in 1989.

In Superman's case, the last time we saw a proper Superman on the big screen was back in the late 70's/very early 80's and that was the Bronze Age Superman. Most people did not see the transition from that Superman to the John Byrne/Birthright Superman of the Post-Crisis comics, which is a bit more serious and more realistic in comparison. What we have instead was a giant gap between those two versions with nothing in between to create a natural transition, which wasn't the case for Batman. Sure that we had Superman Returns but that was almost a complete rehash of the first Donner film in terms of story and tone so I wouldn't count it.

You had me until you got to the end and "didn't count" SR. Wasn't that a transition to "more serious"? I understand Singer was using Donner's films as a starting point, but the tone wasn't nearly the same to me.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

I guess I'm naive in the sense that I like to focus on the positive things. You can call a 56% rating for a film disappointing, but to say the reviews sucked ? Nah man, a film with a score of 36 or 26% sucks. The score of Green lantern sucks.
I'm done replying to your posts, this exchange is going no where and it's a waste of my time.
Sorry you were disappointed with the film, hope you enjoy the sequel.

lol wow you have that passive aggressive thing down pat. kinda creepy.

on-topic: i think 600 is close to a lock, but is 700 million even in the realm of possibility. I dont see how it gets there at this point. Maybe the die-hards will keep it going for a while.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

lol wow you have that passive aggressive thing down pat. kinda creepy.

on-topic: i think 600 is close to a lock, but is 700 million even in the realm of possibility. I dont see how it gets there at this point. Maybe the die-hards will keep it going for a while.

Considering that boxofficemojo recently stated it's on track to 400M OS and around 300M domesticaly, yes, it's very possibleit will reach 700M. Obviously, 600M is a ''lock''.

 

[Superherofan123]

600 is close to a lock?? Isn't it all ready over 550? 600 is a 100% lock and I'd say 700 pretty much is a lock at this point as well.

 

[Mysteryman]

I hope so. But I don't consider this a Batman Begins. That one I loved. Problem is, this one is making a lot more money than BB did and I don't think it is as well written. Why would WB think they are doing anything wrong? Someone at WB thought this was done well...lord knows someone there has a weird sense of "good" (admittedly it's just my opinion)....Green Lantern, Jonah Hex...now I'm not loving MoS. I'm almost afraid of a Flash movie. (The one I'm MOST interesting in). WB is not earning my trust for a while now. So...whoever is really driving their direction....MoS making all this money is certainly not going to convince them "Wow...maybe I should rethink things?" ....More like, "Wow...I'm a genius!"

Superman is always going to make money and that might fool WB into a false sense of accomplishment.


At some point, I'm wanting more than this. (Agree about TDK btw...the Joker isn't smart...Gotham is filled with idiots) Transformers movies make a ton of money too in spite of the critics....I don't want Trans-Superman.


You may have something there. Maybe WB was disappearing up their own butts with this script...trying to be too "deep" and "angst-y".

Fingers crossed.

I can't help but think Superman has the potential for much more. Any Supes movies is going to make money like this. Compare this to Batman Begins....that one was loved by the audience and MoS is going to make far more despite mixed reviews and obvious flaws.

I heard there is some kind of holiday in Canada for Monday...that could be have an artificial positive effect.

You had me until you got to the end and "didn't count" SR. Wasn't that a transition to "more serious"? I understand Singer was using Donner's films as a starting point, but the tone wasn't nearly the same to me.

If Superman is always going to make money, we wold be awaiting our second SR sequel by now .

 

[TheScarecrow]

If Superman is always going to make money, we wold be awaiting our second SR sequel by now .

Agreed.

Superman - successful.
Superman II - successful.
Superman III - unsuccessful.
Superman IV - unsuccessful.
Superman Returns - mild success.
Man of Steel - successful.

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

lol wow you have that passive aggressive thing down pat. kinda creepy.

on-topic: i think 600 is close to a lock, but is 700 million even in the realm of possibility. I dont see how it gets there at this point. Maybe the die-hards will keep it going for a while.

Well if it is at $600 million next monday, has yet to open in Brazil and Japan and has only been out for a week in some markets, it's not difficult to make a case that $700 million is on the cards.

 

[kalelvis]

600 mil isn't even a question anymore.

If the new numbers for China are accurate (BOM will not update their official figures for WW until the end of the week) then MoS is already at around 545-550. It is doing pretty well in China with still 10 days to go which should round the China total out to about 55 to 60 million total, maybe a bit more.

Considering it is still doing very solid business in the os market it will be 600 million ww by the end of this weekend and may actually already be there as actuals for overseas come in.

The announcement for hitting 500 came in on Saturday afternoon and was to my understanding based on figures up to that afternoon.

If Brazil and Japan follow suit with the rest of the world, the movie will do well in those markets and could bring in between 30 to 60 million more.

The market is so crowded this summer that there is a chance that people aren't skipping movies but picking from several options and will eventually see everything. There is a lot of summer to go and MoS does not have to sprint to still bring in a lot more money.

Like I said in an earlier post, this might be a case of turtle vs hare.

MoS would have to stop making money completely right now for 600 million to not be a complete lock leaving 700 million plus very much in play.

But not being a box office analyst, I could be off my rocker....call me an optimist.

 

[Knightstalker]

Based on the opening weekend numbers, it's going to do about 25-30 million here in Australia when all is said and done

 

[Princess Denise]

600 mil isn't even a question anymore.

If the new numbers for China are accurate (BOM will not update their official figures for WW until the end of the week) then MoS is already at around 545-550. It is doing pretty well in China with still 10 days to go which should round the China total out to about 55 to 60 million total, maybe a bit more.

Considering it is still doing very solid business in the os market it will be 600 million ww by the end of this weekend and may actually already be there as actuals for overseas come in.

The announcement for hitting 500 came in on Saturday afternoon and was to my understanding based on figures up to that afternoon.

If Brazil and Japan follow suit with the rest of the world, the movie will do well in those markets and could bring in between 30 to 60 million more.

The market is so crowded this summer that there is a chance that people aren't skipping movies but picking from several options and will eventually see everything. There is a lot of summer to go and MoS does not have to sprint to still bring in a lot more money.

Like I said in an earlier post, this might be a case of turtle vs hare.

MoS would have to stop making money completely right now for 600 million to not be a complete lock leaving 700 million plus very much in play.

But not being a box office analyst, I could be off my rocker....call me an optimist.

47.22M is the official China gross as of June 30:

http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/

Also, BOM has not updated every individual country yet, but all grosses up to June 30 are included in the 271M WW figure they updated Sunday.

 

[kalelvis]

47.22M is the official China gross as of June 30:

http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/

Also, BOM has not updated every individual country yet, but all grosses up to June 30 are included in the 271M WW figure they updated Sunday.

Awesome. Thanks for the link. I wonder where everyone gets the information that isn't available on BoM and Boxoffice.com

So, does that include the updated figure for China?

 

[Princess Denise]

Awesome. Thanks for the link. I wonder where everyone gets the information that isn't available on BoM and Boxoffice.com

So, does that include the updated figure for China?

Yes, the 47.22M is included in BOM's 271M OS total.

 

[robot]

Yeah that's what I thought as well, so if that is the case, we should applaud anyone gutsy enough to come to an English language forum and engage in a discussion not in their native tongue. I can't speak another language, and I really admire those that can.

There is at least one guy here on the forum who will lecture you on the proper use of the English Language...

 

[robot]

When you and I were having our dispute pages and pages ago I said my prediction was 500-600M with a possibility to go to 700M if the WOM was good and the reviews were solid. And this is rich coming from the guru predicting 1B.

nah, you were predicting 500M (and said that if everything was perfect, i MIGHT hit 600 max) and practically laughing at anyone who said anything 700m or over... and since like you said yourself, the movie sucks, RT is low, and WOM is bad, so why should it even be more than your 500M prediction???

I guess all bullies are the same...

I will readily admit I am wrong with my 1B prediction and I have always from the beginning said i am not an expert and that my prediction is more wishful thinking... so, no, my ego is not as big as yours... i can be wrong and admit to it...

soon, we'll see a post of yours revising your numbers up to 750M... let's see how you word it..

ps: allow yourself to be wrong, stop thinking you're the smartest man on Earth and you might be happier...

 

[robot]

ease up!
what for i wanna insult u? i don't even know u!
just enjoy the show and look at the brighter side!

It appears that bullies don't like to be bullied... who knew!

 

[Andreth]

 

[robot]

I agree. Expectations were enormously high given that Nolan was producing and frankly because comic book movies had been well received lately. I mean good grief, Captain America and Thor were solid films and received great reviews. Now you take an icon like Superman, match him up with TDK creators, give it a great budget and promise dynamite action....who wouldn't expect the movie to take off?

But poor WOM and bad reviews can hurt a film. I think what we're seeing for the most part is that there is huge interest in the character. People were going to go see this movie no matter what. But poor WOM prevented some repeat business. Its not only critics who didn't like the film, a lot of fans and moviegoers felt the same way.

Yes, I have to agree with you here...

If you look at the consensus on the negatives, most people who are not 'see no evil fanboys' will see the truths on the issues with MOS...

But, still, I think if the 56% is way too low for MOS... if the critics were totally unbiased by expectations, it should at least get the same mark as 'WWZ'..

I think, IMO, that the actual score of the GA should lie within 70-80%... I personally loved the movie (inspite of all the flaws that i can see), and gave it a 9 (but that might be biased because i just love superman so much)...

 

[spider-neil]

I don't think 700m is a 'lock' at all. 600m is lock. 700m is a push.

 

[Liam_H]

Yes, I have to agree with you here...

If you look at the consensus on the negatives, most people who are not 'see no evil fanboys' will see the truths on the issues with MOS...

But, still, I think if the 56% is way too low for MOS... if the critics were totally unbiased by expectations, it should at least get the same mark as 'WWZ'..

I think, IMO, that the actual score of the GA should lie within 70-80%... I personally loved the movie (inspite of all the flaws that i can see), and gave it a 9 (but that might be biased because i just love superman so much)...

I can totally see how MoS got 56%. A lot people on here have said its more enjoyable watching it a 2nd time. The pacing and editing have a better flow because you know what is coming. But these critics saw it only once and judged based off of that. I was really frustrated after my midnight showing.

This probably applies to a lot of other movies too.