Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - - - - Part 13

[raynard]

This is my 'guess' for the Man of Steel Domestic Total:

Based on the current trend of MOS, the film should hit $300 million around the 60th-70th day of its' release (A little under a month from now or 8th/9th week of release)

I based this on a couple of factors. First, I looked at films similar to the same box office trend as MOS. I based this on "Fastest to $250 Million" from BOM.

Two movies showed a similar trend, the Hobbit and Harry Potter 6.

Currently, MOS is at its' 34th day and is around $282 million or so. At the same time/rate, Hobbit earned 630K on its' 34th day (Wednesday) to a total of $280M while HP6 earned 730K on its' 34th day (Monday) to a totak of $284M. So, if we look at those two trends then, MOS should follow the same
people here laughed at me when I compared mos to the hobbit its hard to believe that a movie will make 300 mil dom and top out at 700 ww. I just dont see mos stopping there I say 800 is the floor mos will surely make more than 400 foreign if fast 6 can crawl to 700mil ww and 460 of that is foreign I think mos can crush this number even with a slow crawl but I know warner is gonna re-release it to get some of its screens back if they do I still see a billion just my opinion

I only included Domestic because that is the trend MOS is showing after its' 34th day. I did not include to compare MOS OS numbers for both hobbit and hp6 because I feel it is a bit different.

That being said, I would be so happy if MOS made 800 instead of 700 but the trends show otherwise.. I would like to be wrong but those are the 'observable' numbers we have at the moment.

 

[STARMAN]

There is no comparison with the OS numbers for MOS and The Hobbit.

Just look at what the Hobbit did in Germany-88 mill. France-41 mill. Russia-43 mill. Uk-78 mill.

That's not happening with MOS.

 

[robot]

Didn't Titanic open during winter when no movie/competition were opening? There was nothing going up against it like how today's movie are competitive each week. If you did 2-3 weeks at #1 that's accomplish considering how many movies are being release.

And that's why James Cameroon's a genius!!!

 

[raynard]

There is no comparison with the OS numbers for MOS and The Hobbit.

Just look at what the Hobbit did in Germany-88 mill. France-41 mill. Russia-43 mill. Uk-78 mill.

That's not happening with MOS.

Exactly, that's why I declined to include OS numbers plus I believe Hobbit has an established fan following with LOR series Peter Jackson. So it is more of a 'sequel-type' of release rather than a stand-alone trilogy for hobbit.

 

[STARMAN]

I agree. MOS was never expected to do Hobbit numbers OS. That's not an indictment on MOS.

 

[dalonewolf]

Hobbit did about $304M domestic and HP6 did $301M domestic

the hobbit made a billion and HP6 made 900 mil and they still think mos will stop at 700mil

 

[raynard]

the hobbit made a billion and HP6 made 900 mil and they still think mos will stop at 700mil

IMO, OS numbers are a completely different beast.

That being said, I am hesitant to believe MOS will reach 800.. 700 definitely but given the numbers OS for MOS, then it is an uphill climb.

In any case, I thought MOS would do $325-$350 initially (wishful thinking) but then I looked at something like Iron Man I which did $315 domestic. But then comparing it to its' OS numbers, definitely MOS did better numbers than almost any reboot or origin story CBM except for Spiderman.

 

[dalonewolf]

form my understanding mos has been out for 34 days not 120 or 110 I like how everyone puts a floor on a movie that is still considered doing well and when most of these so called block busters had less than a 100 mil opening weekend or just barely made the 100 mil all im saying is let the movie do a full 60days and then we will see where it ends up

 

[STARMAN]

In a lot of foreign markets MOS is already making well less than a mill US dollars on the weekend. That's why the weekly foreign jumps gets smaller.

 

[raynard]

form my understanding mos has been out for 34 days not 120 or 110 I like how everyone puts a floor on a movie that is still considered doing well and when most of these so called block busters had less than a 100 mil opening weekend or just barely made the 100 mil all im saying is let the movie do a full 60days and then we will see where it ends up

Understood, though we can definitely speculate/predict the total since we have numbers to play with. Further, I do like to add that MOS did very well both Domestically and Internationally so it is a success in that regard.

However, MOS is a "front-loaded" film in which the majority of what MOS earned is within its' first 3-4 weeks..

 

[raynard]

What is interesting is Iron Man 3 was only released for a total of 70 days.. I wonder how many days will WB allow MOS to run for..

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=ironman3.htm

 

[Liam_H]

There seems to be this misunderstanding that a movie has to be out for a certain number of days. It doesn't, its out there for as long as it makes money. Theaters aren't going to keep screening a movie if no one is showing up.

Also on the WW total. Look at it this way, MoS pulled in about $23M from foreign territories last week, about $5.2M from Brazil which it just opened. That means around $17-18M from the remaining holdovers. That number is only gonna keep decreasing so with only Japan left how heck is this movie gonna approach $800M WW?

 

[robot]

the hobbit made a billion and HP6 made 900 mil and they still think mos will stop at 700mil

As much as I like you to be right, MOS have also been breaking records for weekly drops.. it's huge drop week after week, both domestic and OS. The weekly OS numbers are now a trickle...

The critics were on the ball on this one... basically it's pretty mixed even with the GA... beyond the initial hype, it's just not the 'easy going fun, funny, appeal to all' type movie.

For me, it's absolutely rocks (in terms of enjoyability), but I can still see how many would not like it...

I still think it'll pass 700M easy.. but 800M? I think that's asking a lot...

 

[raynard]

There seems to be this misunderstanding that a movie has to be out for a certain number of days. It doesn't, its out there for as long as it makes money. Theaters aren't going to keep screening a movie if no one is showing up.

Also on the WW total. Look at it this way, MoS pulled in about $23M from foreign territories last week, about $5.2M from Brazil which it just opened. That means around $17-18M from the remaining holdovers. That number is only gonna keep decreasing so with only Japan left how heck is this movie gonna approach $800M WW?

That's why I believe MOS will do Hobbit numbers domestically since it is at a slow crawl right now. Nevertheless, it is still showing at about over 2K screens but the number should be dropping since this weekend a couple of new movies are showing, RED and RIPD.. Basically, MOS is the movie (at the moment) where theatres are only showing it 2-3 times a day.

 

[robot]

There seems to be this misunderstanding that a movie has to be out for a certain number of days. It doesn't, its out there for as long as it makes money. Theaters aren't going to keep screening a movie if no one is showing up.

Also on the WW total. Look at it this way, MoS pulled in about $23M from foreign territories last week, about $5.2M from Brazil which it just opened. That means around $17-18M from the remaining holdovers. That number is only gonna keep decreasing so with only Japan left how heck is this movie gonna approach $800M WW?

Exactly!!!

Why do people think that Studios can 'keep' a movie going? If it's not selling tickets, cinemas will move it out of their precious screens faster than you can say burp... (with the exception of some minimum contract period of course).

And if a movie continues to outsell tickets, cinema owners won't be stupid enough to move it along... take avatar.. it's was on the cinemas forever... and still make more than most new releases... i think it was on for like half a year... same with avatar...

 

[STARMAN]

The Hobbit made 6.1 mill in it's sixth weekend. 7.6 if you include the four day holiday. MOS won't make 6-7 mill this weekend.

 

[Liam_H]

MoS essentially lost half its screens this week. It's theater count went from 2,150 to 1,100.

 

[STARMAN]

The loss of theaters adds up.

 

[raynard]

The loss of theaters adds up.

I know this has been discussed in previous threads, however it is good to put into perspective...

WB released MOS in June to set June records. However, because of that, it ended up suffering from box office numbers because of competition and various other movies coming week-after-week (monsters, world war z, despicable, etc.)

Given that it is the summer, there is much competition and for that, MOS numbers are affected. Despite those issues, MOS still strong #s.

 

[dalonewolf]

As much as I like you to be right, MOS have also been breaking records for weekly drops.. it's huge drop week after week, both domestic and OS. The weekly OS numbers are now a trickle...

The critics were on the ball on this one... basically it's pretty mixed even with the GA... beyond the initial hype, it's just not the 'easy going fun, funny, appeal to all' type movie.

For me, it's absolutely rocks (in terms of enjoyability), but I can still see how many would not like it...

I still think it'll pass 700M easy.. but 800M? I think that's asking a lot...

what u have to understand is mos is not losing viewers its really just losing screens to all the competition and that is where the drop come s in at when warner re-release mos which I know they would mos numbers will increase
we all have to remember that this movie is going up against 10 new movies and still is holding up well
most movies would have been forgotten by now but yet mos is stioo making money with no 3-d in most places

 

[tomoe]

what u have to understand is mos is not losing viewers its really just losing screens to all the competition and that is where the drop come s in at when warner re-release mos which I know they would mos numbers will increase
we all have to remember that this movie is going up against 10 new movies and still is holding up well
most movies would have been forgotten by now but yet mos is stioo making money with no 3-d in most places

All movies lose screens after a few weeks. The ones that hold well despite it are the ones that truly have good word of mouth.

 

[kalhawj]

All movies lose screens after a few weeks. The ones that hold well despite it are the ones that truly have good word of mouth.

Let me give you some Box office mojo status to enlighten you.

-Man of Steel after it's 3rd week of release it's theater were cut to 2,965 from 4,131 but still made $2,353,137.

-Iron Man 1 in it's 3rd week still had 4,154 and made $1,926,258.

Are you still with me here? Now let's compare where MOS is now.

-MOS is now sitting at 2,150 theater while Iron Man in the same amount of time had 3,650 theater. Iron Man made $1,312,678 while MOS made $542,089.

If theater cuts isn't affecting it's BO number you are crazy. MOS's BO number could be so much better but because so many movie is opening it's losing it's screen...

 

[tomoe]

Let me give you some Box office mojo status to enlighten you.

-Man of Steel after it's 3rd week of release it's theater were cut to 2,965 from 4,131 but still made $2,353,137.

-Iron Man 1 in it's 3rd week still had 4,154 and made $1,926,258.

Are you still with me here? Now let's compare where MOS is now.

-MOS is now sitting at 2,150 theater while Iron Man in the same amount of time had 3,650 theater. Iron Man made $1,312,678 while MOS made $542,089.

If theater cuts isn't affecting it's BO number you are crazy. MOS's BO number could be so much better but because so many movie is opening it's losing it's screen...

What I said is still true. I never said losing screens isn't affecting BO numbers. Of course it does. But those big drops aren't just due to lost screens. If WOM was better those drops would be smaller despite losing screens.

 

[Sabaoth]

At this point, I just want it to beat Inception's domestic take. Which it should!

 

[dalonewolf]

What I said is still true. I never said losing screens isn't affecting BO numbers. Of course it does. But those big drops aren't just due to lost screens. If WOM was better those drops would be smaller despite losing screens.

thats why warner will re-release it again