Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - - - - Part 13

[Stephen K. Hone]

Let the haters hate, just means more attention towards MofS... 300 M isn't out of the picture yet.. right now it's on pace to get 295... with a little infusion over this weekend 300M is still a legit possibility

I'm hoping by August 5 it'll be at $289-290 million, then it needs to scratch and claw it's way to an additional $11 million over the following six weeks or so.

 

[Jim-El]

Will Despicable Me 2 out gross domestically MOS?? It is getting tighter...

 

[Jim-El]

Man of Steel $283,181,087
Despicable Me 2 $251,100,035

 

[tomoe]

Will Despicable Me 2 out gross domestically MOS?? It is getting tighter...

It most definitely will. Too bad, I watched it yesterday and thought it was terrible.

 

[Mysteryman]

Despicable Me isn't done by a long shot.
MOS will be done in a few weeks.

 

[Jegan]

if it gets to 295 and hopefully when it does it is still making 6 figures... if it is then I think there is a legit chance it can crawl its way to 300 M... but we'll all have to watch it again, which I don't think any of us have an issue with!

 

[Liam_H]

Yea, there is some of us.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

You guys give him credibility by actually engaging with him. Anytime I pop in and see him arguing with you guys I just leave.

There is an Ignore List for a reason.

 

[Liam_H]

No reason to do that.

 

[Jim-El]

Despicable Me isn't done by a long shot.
MOS will be done in a few weeks.

I was hoping MOS would be at least the second highest domestic grossing film this year. Looks like number 3 at best.

 

[Liam_H]

Number 4 at best, chances of dropping lower.

 

[Jim-El]

Number 4 at best, chances of dropping lower.

What movie do you foresee jumping to 3?

 

[Liam_H]

Hunger Games 2. I see chances of the movie dropping domestically, but not that much.

Then you maybe have Hobbit 2 and an even bigger maybe, Thor 2.

I also thought MU had a chance of passing MoS but it seems DM2 took away enough audience.

 

[kalhawj]

Here something to get you pump for tomorrow's possible announcement of MOS 2.

Link

 

[Jim-El]

Hunger Games 2. I see chances of the movie dropping domestically, but not that much.

Then you maybe have Hobbit 2 and an even bigger maybe, Thor 2.

I also thought MU had a good chance of passing MoS but it seems DM2 took away enough audience.

Sounds like you are correct. Lastly, I guess I can hope for a 300 million dollar domestic tally...t:

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

Sounds like you are correct. Lastly, I guess I can hope for a 300 million dollar domestic tally...t:

I think CC is the perfect venue to make the MOS 2 announcement, but with WB you can never tell, they seem to move in mysterious ways!

 

[Sup3rman81]

I think CC is the perfect venue to make the MOS 2 announcement, but with WB you can never tell, they seem to move in mysterious ways!

According to movieweb.com there was a corporate letter seen at CC that listed both the untitled Batman reboot and JLA as being announced for 2015 releases. It also had Ant Man and Troll release dates as well in the document.

 

[Jegan]

I hope they make MOS 2 official soon! in the meantime continue that push to 300 M!

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Hunger Games 2. I see chances of the movie dropping domestically, but not that much.

Then you maybe have Hobbit 2 and an even bigger maybe, Thor 2.

I also thought MU had a chance of passing MoS but it seems DM2 took away enough audience.

Top 10 at least?

 

[Jegan]

and i dont' see thor 2 making MOS numbers. Thor only made 181 M. Thor, hulk and captain all made less then 200 M.

MOS needs to hit 300 M to join that category with Batman, Spidey and Iron man

 

[seomensnowlocke]

There is a lot of squeakery and geekery on this website, but I am going to break down some numbers for you to show you why Man of Steel is a shattering (I said it) success.
I peg it at maybe $295 mil Dom, and $390 mil OS. That puts it at about $685 mil WW.
First of all, this is the highest grossing total WW for a superhero movie startup since Spider Man eleven years ago and TASM last year. Some would argue that TASM is the coninuation of an earlier trilogy, but that is niether here nor there. The point is that it is good company to be in.
In fact, while TASM topped MOS overseas, MOS topped TASM by quite a bit in the domestic BO (even though there has actually been ticket price DEFLATION domestically since the summer of 2012.)
I saw MOS twice and loved it. Best superhero movie ever IMO, at least as far as action goes. However, it is obvious at this point it will not pull close to $750 Mil in WW BO, and probably won't pull $700 mil. Doesn't matter. It is still a huge success, and a big time franchise for the next 6 or more years. Here is a breakdown of why:
MOS was one of the most successful marketing campaigns ever. The brand was so strong that the movie actually made $20 mil before it sold a ticket. It sold $170 mil in product placement and had a marketing budget of $150 mil. That gives it $20 mil in the can before even a Wal-Mart ticket was sold. That is the Superman brand. No other superhero could do that, and none ever has. This movie paid for its own marketing budget, which is unheard of.
Man of steel is almost a lock to sell $680 mil by the end of its run. The studio(s) take 55% of that, which would be $374 mil. Add to that the net of $20 mil from marketing, and you have $394 mil. Subtract from that the amount of $225 mil for production and pre-production and you have $159 mil net.
That's pure profit. That means everything from here on out, whether it be DVD sales, pay per views, Blue Ray, Cable rights, Broadcast rights, etc., is all just gravy. Everything from now on is just gravy. By the time it is all said and done, this movie will make well over $250 mil net for WB, and probably waaaaay more.
For perspective, let's compare it to the most recent reboot of TASM which is a fairly comparable superhero tentpole blockbuster. TASM did more wordlwide box office by a good margin but less domestic, and totaled out at about $752 mil. TASM's studio pulled 55% of sales, which was $413,600,000.00. Subtract from that the production budget of $230 mil, and you get $183,600,000.00.
For a second, it appears TASM made more money, but now you have to look at the marketing. TASM probably did $50 mil in product placement, and had a marketing expense of $80 mil to $100 mil. (These numbers are from the reference material known as my a$$, but it is pretty consistent with your average summer tent pole). This mean that TASM DROPPED at least $30 mil on marketing (I love spider man, but his logo is not the second most recognized symbol on earth...ya gotta love that Superman brand). Therefore, the net profit (before DVD,Blue Ray and PPV) is less than MOS at $153,600,000.00.
Therefore, MOS is a tiny bit more successful if it stops at 680 mil because it is the biggest brand in the world that is not a religion.
TASM is getting some sequels that are already planned. Why? Because it was a great reboot that made three quarters of a billion dollars and was a shattering (I said it) success. Now, if TASM gets a few sequels, what do you think MOS will do since it actually netted more money?
The moral of story: who the hell cares if it makes $300 mil domestic and $400 OS? It has already done what fans wanted: made a steamrolling franchise, resurrected the movie brand and reinforced the character brand. Stop crying about $290 mil v. $300 mil. It's already a winner.
My two cents.

 

[Jegan]

AGREE 100% with everything you've said! In the big picture whether it makes 295M or 300M doesn't really matter, it just "looks" better if it was to make 300M... but regardless a huge success!

There is a lot of squeakery and geekery on this website, but I am going to break down some numbers for you to show you why Man of Steel is a shattering (I said it) success.
I peg it at maybe $295 mil Dom, and $390 mil OS. That puts it at about $685 mil WW.
First of all, this is the highest grossing total WW for a superhero movie startup since Spider Man eleven years ago and TASM last year. Some would argue that TASM is the coninuation of an earlier trilogy, but that is niether here nor there. The point is that it is good company to be in.
In fact, while TASM topped MOS overseas, MOS topped TASM by quite a bit in the domestic BO (even though there has actually been ticket price DEFLATION domestically since the summer of 2012.)
I saw MOS twice and loved it. Best superhero movie ever IMO, at least as far as action goes. However, it is obvious at this point it will not pull close to $750 Mil in WW BO, and probably won't pull $700 mil. Doesn't matter. It is still a huge success, and a big time franchise for the next 6 or more years. Here is a breakdown of why:
MOS was one of the most successful marketing campaigns ever. The brand was so strong that the movie actually made $20 mil before it sold a ticket. It sold $170 mil in product placement and had a marketing budget of $150 mil. That gives it $20 mil in the can before even a Wal-Mart ticket was sold. That is the Superman brand. No other superhero could do that, and none ever has. This movie paid for its own marketing budget, which is unheard of.
Man of steel is almost a lock to sell $680 mil by the end of its run. The studio(s) take 55% of that, which would be $374 mil. Add to that the net of $20 mil from marketing, and you have $394 mil. Subtract from that the amount of $225 mil for production and pre-production and you have $159 mil net.
That's pure profit. That means everything from here on out, whether it be DVD sales, pay per views, Blue Ray, Cable rights, Broadcast rights, etc., is all just gravy. Everything from now on is just gravy. By the time it is all said and done, this movie will make well over $250 mil net for WB, and probably waaaaay more.
For perspective, let's compare it to the most recent reboot of TASM which is a fairly comparable superhero tentpole blockbuster. TASM did more wordlwide box office by a good margin but less domestic, and totaled out at about $752 mil. TASM's studio pulled 55% of sales, which was $413,600,000.00. Subtract from that the production budget of $230 mil, and you get $183,600,000.00.
For a second, it appears TASM made more money, but now you have to look at the marketing. TASM probably did $50 mil in product placement, and had a marketing expense of $80 mil to $100 mil. (These numbers are from the reference material known as my a$$, but it is pretty consistent with your average summer tent pole). This mean that TASM DROPPED at least $30 mil on marketing (I love spider man, but his logo is not the second most recognized symbol on earth...ya gotta love that Superman brand). Therefore, the net profit (before DVD,Blue Ray and PPV) is less than MOS at $153,600,000.00.
Therefore, MOS is a tiny bit more successful if it stops at 680 mil because it is the biggest brand in the world that is not a religion.
TASM is getting some sequels that are already planned. Why? Because it was a great reboot that made three quarters of a billion dollars and was a shattering (I said it) success. Now, if TASM gets a few sequels, what do you think MOS will do since it actually netted more money?
The moral of story: who the hell cares if it makes $300 mil domestic and $400 OS? It has already done what fans wanted: made a steamrolling franchise, resurrected the movie brand and reinforced the character brand. Stop crying about $290 mil v. $300 mil. It's already a winner.
My two cents.

 

[rayc1971]

I hope they make MOS 2 official soon! in the meantime continue that push to 300 M!

rumors are batman is coming 2015 wb has no faith in mos it seems I think wb thinks batman is easy money if this is true 2015 is to soon to reboot batman mos2 should be 2015.wb/dc comics are clueless getting the dc universe going

 

[Ms. Marvel]

and i dont' see thor 2 making MOS numbers. Thor only made 181 M. Thor, hulk and captain all made less then 200 M.

MOS needs to hit 300 M to join that category with Batman, Spidey and Iron man

Domestically? Who knows?
Thor 2 is in a very different position than Thor was.

I don't think MOS has enough juice left domestically to reach 300 M. $290 M seems very possible.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

Domestically? Who knows?
Thor 2 is in a very different position than Thor was.

I don't think MOS has enough juice left domestically to reach 300 M. $290 M seems very possible.

Agreed on both counts.