Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - - - - - Part 14

[sf2]

I think MOS did far better (SR only made 391M WW) and was better received by audiences than SR. I don't think we are in the same boat here. We are getting the principal cast back with the same production team for a continuation of the series. Most films that make 650M+ are considered a phenomenal hit but WB expected more. Maybe their expectations were not realistic considering MOS is a reboot but it is what it is. WB wants to compete with Marvel and Star Wars so they are bringing in Batman. I just hope that it is mostly a Superman movie with some Batman at the end. I would hate for it to be 50/50 or even for Superman to play second fiddle

No argument. MOS did better n is a better film.
Just saying SR was getting the same sequel talk, the wrath of Khan style... after the release too. Which was better because it didn't share screen with batman.

 

[webknight18]

WB had plans for a standalone JL film that would've been developed alongside a self contained MoS trilogy (wich was what Snyder, Goyer and Nolan wanted for the character). That was the original plan before Beal's script got tanked.

Then Goyer was brought in to write a new JL treatment in wich MoS' would be intended as the starting point of the DC Cinematic Universe. But that was not before mid april 2013 according to Robinov's statement. So I wouldn't say WB had a plan to expand the DC Universe, they had erratic plans at best and most of them were ditched along the way.

And anyone thinking that the travesty of a sequel they are giving to MoS was always part of the plan because of a logo slapped on a satellite in post-prod is kidding him/herself. This is nothing but a desperate/last minute stunt to catch up with the competition because they don't deem their solo franchises (rightfully or not) up to the task.

A standalone JL film with a different Superman? I doubt that. If on the other hand they were going to use the same superman it does mean an expanded DC universe since superman would have to exist with other superheroes.

OK, just because the studios released something later does not mean they just thought it up weeks before. Studios usually plan ahead years in advance. They just don't announce it, until they are 100% sure. No, one is going to spend over $200 million without concrete plans, least of all WB.

I'm not saying the logo on the satellite means anything, nor does the booster gold thing. The sequel to MOS was either going to be Superman alone or him with some other hero. An Superman/Batman makes sense financially and also lets them expand the universe.

 

[webknight18]

Right. MOS did great and will be one of the top moneymakers of the year. Anyone who tries to paint that as a failure or even a disappointment is kidding themselves. The problem is that WB had such sky high expectations for MOS. They were probably realistically hoping for something in the 800M WW range. So WB is now probably thinking that MOS did great and will get a sequel, but not great enough that they feel comfortable putting that sequel out in the same year as potential blockbusters such as Avengers II and Star Wars so they felt MOS needed a little help in the form of Batman.

I highly doubt WB was expecting $800, more like $600. Read WB's earnings report, MOS exceeded their expectations and they are thrilled with it.

Look at how all the other studios are trying to expand their superhero universes. Why do a standalone Superman when they could add Batman and fast forward to a GL? You might not like it as a supes fan, but it make sense financially for the studios.

I can't believe people are complaining about a Superman/Batman pairing.

 

[sf2]

I highly doubt WB was expecting $800, more like $600. Read WB's earnings report, MOS exceeded their expectations and they are thrilled with it.

Look at how all the other studios are trying to expand their superhero universes. Why do a standalone Superman when they could add Batman and fast forward to a GL? You might not like it as a supes fan, but it make sense financially for the studios.

I can't believe people are complaining about a Superman/Batman pairing.

Believe it before you have your head cracked. And the number is quite a lot.

 

[Tobias]

I've seen other sources reporting it as well. They coukd all be from Robinov though and I just didn't bother to check.

Regardless, I hope you're right.

We just don't know if it was Robinov alone who expected a billion plus or WB generally.

WE do know that MOS is the only supposedly successful first film in a franchise not to get a solo sequel let alone a trilogy. It looks like MOS/WF/JL.

We do know Batman has been huge for WB and is being brought in to do this team up film.

The implication is WB was disappointed - maybe they didn't expect a billion - maybe 800 million.

Movie sites like BOM do their summer film analysis in September. They usually tell if the studios are happy or not. When those come out we should get an answer as to whether WB is disappointed or not. Pox Office Mojo has industry connections should their verdict on MOS's performance re: studio expectations should settle it.

 

[Tobias]

Does anyone know what to realistically expect from Japan? I know TASM made almost 40M, but that was a summer release.

'

SR did around 11 million, TDKR around 24 million. Probably right in the middle. 15/16/17 million.

 

[Tobias]

The problem is Superman is barely developed and does not have a status quo as of yet. MOS was more of a setup film for greater things to come. It is a bad idea to do Superman/Batman until you establish that status quo.

ITA.

The additional problem with WF is, if it does huge, who will get the credit from WB?

Batman. Which means that energizes WB to immediately do a solo Batman flick and quickly do another team film with JL.

MOS/Superman gets lost in the process and the franchise could well stall out as WB focuses on Batman and the other heroes in the JL film.

Think of it this way - a JL in 2018. The earliest they could get back to MOS2 is 6 or 7 years but that is too long and gap. MOS will be long forgottten and its back to a reboot.

WB has messed this up from the start.

Pacific Rim got the better July release date MOS should have gotten. MOS was pulled by WB from IMAX in favor of PR. With a July release and a longer IMAX run MOS could have done 300 million.

I know WB wants to turn PR into a franchise but though its done OK, it is not going to be this mega-franchise WB seems to have expected. Expecting that was as bad as WB expecting MOS to do 1 billion or 800 million. whichever it is.

 

[JOE]

Could have, would have, should have... Didn't. WB dropped the ball.

 

[STARMAN]

It seems like forever since MOS set that June weekend record.

 

[Tobias]

It seems like forever since MOS set that June weekend record.

The thing is that based on that opening and typical holds for CBM films BOM projected 325 - 350 domestic and around 800 million WW. Guru did similar projections. Check out the BOM archives.

Taking that and the hints WB is disappointed with MOS's performance, it may be that the truth is WB was expecting that 800 million. I still find it hard to believe they expected 1 billion but Robinov did. Who knows if he was alone in that.

It'll be interesting to see what BOM says re: MOS in their summer review. It should settle the performance debate.

 

[STARMAN]

I know all about the projections after the first week. Those projections died after the second week drop off.

The criticism is for the second week hold. It stabilized in weeks three and four. The drop-offs in week 5 and 6 were due to lost of screens.

Looking back at this summer. Many films did bad domestically. After Earth. White House Down. Lone Ranger. Pacific Rim. Even Star Trek underperformed a bit domestically.

 

[Mr.M]

It was a mixed bag. WB thought they'd have the most critically acclaimed movie of the summer. But IM3 outdid it (expectations plays a factor, but still better reviewed nonetheless). Hell, even Pacific Rim was comparable if not better. Wolverine may have been the best comic book film of the summer, which is sad if you think about it. Truth is, this was a very light year, and MoS was supposed to run away with it. The film just didn't deliver with audiences. Snyder and Goyer were the problem, not Superman.

My only guess with Batman, that character seems to be more in line with what Snyder and Goyer can do, and WB doesn't want to start all over again with a new team/producers. WB wants a safe project. Every major studio needs a safe project. WB doesn't want to take chances like GL anymore and get burned. This was probably the safe bet for 2015.

 

[Tobias]

I know all about the projections after the first week. Those projections died after the second week drop off.

The criticism is for the second week hold. It stabilized in weeks three and four. The drop-offs in week 5 and 6 were due to lost of screens.

Looking back at this summer. Many films did bad domestically. After Earth. White House Down. Lone Ranger. Pacific Rim. Even Star Trek underperformed a bit domestically.

ST did amazing. It underperformed its fist weekend but was a great film, had great reviews and incredible legs. its multiplier is 2.8 plus while MOS's is 2.3 plus. I think among other things MOS's multiplier in part put them off on doing a sequel. BB started slow but kept chugging, had great holds and, though a sequel was not assumed early on in its run, WB took note of the holds and other things and the rest is history.

 

[Marvin]

WE do know that MOS is the only supposedly successful first film in a franchise not to get a solo sequel let alone a trilogy. It looks like MOS/WF/JL.

Both Thor and Cap and Ironman will have trilogies in spite of universe building?
Not sure why you are suggesting the opposite here, I mean on what grounds?

Moreover, having another superhero in a film doesn't stop it from being a sequel. Having Robin or Catwoman or Harvey Dent heavily featured doesn't stop a batman film from being a batman film.

They could have called Avengers, Ironman 3, added a few tweeks here and there and that would be more of a solo squeal than you are suggest we are going to get from MOS2.(Avengers didn't even feature an Stark villain)

We do know Batman has been huge for WB and is being brought in to do this team up film.

The implication is WB was disappointed - maybe they didn't expect a billion - maybe 800 million.

Someone could just as easily and with far more certainty suggest WB expected what other reboots and franchise starts make. What's more is that they expected more than the previous film in the franchise, what's more is that they expected that in spite of a tainted franchise.

Everyone knows Xmen First class numbers were dragged down by the previous failures, why not assume the same here?(from the studio)

As for batman being the big moneymaker, even he had to start somewhere and if I recall it was a lot lower than MOS did. Safe bet the studio is happy.

 

[Marvin]

st did amazing. It underperformed its fist weekend but was a great film, had great reviews and incredible legs. Its multiplier is 2.8 plus while mos's is 2.3 plus. i think among other things mos's multiplier in part put them off on doing a sequel. bb started slow but kept chugging, had great holds and, though a sequel was not assumed early on in its run, wb took note of the holds and other things and the rest is history.

2015.

 

[STARMAN]

Domestically, Star Trek Into Darkness made about 30 mill less than the first one. That's what I mean by underperformed a bit domestically. The sequel surpassed the original oversees.

Batman Begins true success was it's DVD sales. That's what WB loved about it most and gave it confidence going forward.

 

[Tobias]

It was a mixed bag. WB thought they'd have the most critically acclaimed movie of the summer. But IM3 outdid it (expectations plays a factor, but still better reviewed nonetheless). Hell, even Pacific Rim was comparable if not better. Wolverine may have been the best comic book film of the summer, which is sad if you think about it. Truth is, this was a very light year, and MoS was supposed to run away with it. The film just didn't deliver with audiences. Snyder and Goyer were the problem, not Superman.

My only guess with Batman, that character seems to be more in line with what Snyder and Goyer can do, and WB doesn't want to start all over again with a new team/producers. WB wants a safe project. Every major studio needs a safe project. WB doesn't want to take chances like GL anymore and get burned. This was probably the safe bet for 2015.

That pretty much nails it.

I disagree a bit on Snyder. They could have chosen a better director but I put more of the blame on Goyer. He is not a great writer though apparently he is a good idea man. But what good is an idea if you can't translate it to the written page.

Not to defend Snyder, the action was too much and the fight scene so long it got boring, but I think WB stepped in and demanded lots of action in reaction to SR's lack thereof. Kind like they stepped in and nixed plans for a solo film in favor of WF.

Batman is certainly more in line with Goyer but that doesn't mean, left to his own devices, Goyer will deliver a great WF script Goyer was helped in writing the Batman stuff and its unfortunate there wasn't a co-writer for MOS.

I agree WB doesn't want to start over yet again with another essentially reboot of Superman. They have done that twice in 7 years already.

I think they will focus on JL after WF and launching Flash and the others while using Superman in a supporting role in JL films for the time being.

 

[Mr.M]

They obviously want WF to provide the buildup for JL. It's just going to be a commercial for things to come. If you are going to fill this with cameos through the roof, featuring Flash and whatnot (which I think they are), it's going to suffer the same way IM2 suffered. This doesn't really drive a story forward had you just focused on Lex/Supes/Lois in a movie.

I am still praying Batman is barely in the movie. I just want Bruce Wayne to be a supporting character. It would be perfect in that regard, seeing that dynamic with Lex, with Clark and Lois at the forefront. I mean the world doesn't even know about Kryponite yet, so it lends credence to the possibility that Batman doesn't clash with Superman until midway through the movie. They have to discover this substance first. Honestly, it should be Bruce Wayne/Lex working together to take down Superman for most of the movie. Then have Lex set Bruce Wayne up to kill his business competitor, and then have Batman and Superman team up. This versus thing is just stupid.

 

[Tobias]

They obviously want WF to provide the buildup for JL. It's just going to be a commercial for things to come. If you are going to fill this with cameos through the roof, featuring Flash and whatnot (which I think they are), it's going to suffer the same way IM2 suffered. This doesn't really drive a story forward had you just focused on Lex/Supes/Lois in a movie.

I am still praying Batman is barely in the movie. I just want Bruce Wayne to be a supporting character. It would be perfect in that regard, seeing that dynamic with Lex, with Clark and Lois at the forefront. I mean the world doesn't even know about Kryponite yet, so it lends credence to the possibility that Batman doesn't clash with Superman until midway through the movie. They have to discover this substance first. Honestly, it should be Bruce Wayne/Lex working together to take down Superman for most of the movie. Then have Lex set Bruce Wayne up to kill his business competitor, and then have Batman and Superman team up. This versus thing is just stupid.

I hope the cameo thing doesn't happen. Its bad enough they are not doing an MOS trilogy but filling WF with cameos will make that really not a WF.

The thing is all the development of the Superman character that didn't take place in MOS, the potential for a great Lois/Clark arc through a trilogy of films (Amy and Cavill showed signs of a real spark together) that should have come in a trilogy is being chucked. We will never know if Superman could have been, if not a billion dollar franchise, then an 800 million dollar franchise - the jump to greater heights for these kind of films occurs, or not, in the second (stand-alone) film.

Sacrifice the MOS franchise to get to JL and Batman films - but JL is no guarantee and neither is WF (short of Bale returning).

 

[Princess Denise]

They obviously want WF to provide the buildup for JL. It's just going to be a commercial for things to come. If you are going to fill this with cameos through the roof, featuring Flash and whatnot (which I think they are), it's going to suffer the same way IM2 suffered. This doesn't really drive a story forward had you just focused on Lex/Supes/Lois in a movie.

I am still praying Batman is barely in the movie. I just want Bruce Wayne to be a supporting character. It would be perfect in that regard, seeing that dynamic with Lex, with Clark and Lois at the forefront. I mean the world doesn't even know about Kryponite yet, so it lends credence to the possibility that Batman doesn't clash with Superman until midway through the movie. They have to discover this substance first. Honestly, it should be Bruce Wayne/Lex working together to take down Superman for most of the movie. Then have Lex set Bruce Wayne up to kill his business competitor, and then have Batman and Superman team up. This versus thing is just stupid.

Yep, I am going to be very disappointed if Superman gets overshadowed by Batman But I am fine with Batman as a supporting character set in the Superman mythos. Hopefully, the idea is to bring in an aging Batman for MOS II and JL and then reboot with a young Batman in a few years. So maybe they will let Superman be the main focus of MOS II and even have a MOS III after JL.

 

[Tobias]

Yep, I am going to be very disappointed if Superman gets overshadowed by Batman But I am fine with Batman as a supporting character set in the Superman mythos. Hopefully, the idea is to bring in an aging Batman for MOS II and JL and then reboot with a young Batman in a few years. So maybe they will let Superman be the main focus of MOS II and even have a MOS III after JL.

I don't trust WB and I don't think they value Superman/MOS.

If they were trying to build an MOS franchise you'd think they would try to protect it.

The impression out there, given Robinov's words and Batman coming in for the next film, is that MOS was a disappointment or did just OK - a la The Wolverine.

A new column about the summer flicks and how there were no blockbuster and Wolverine and MOS did just healthy business. MOS's performance seen as comparable to Wolverine.

2012 gave us three billion dollar blockbusters in the shape of The Avengers ($1.5 billion), Skyfall ($1.2 billion) and The Dark Knight Rises ($1.1 billion). But 2013 hasn’t come close to producing such smash-hits, with superhero movies like Man of Steel and The Wolverine doing healthy business without reaching the dizzy heights

http://www.ign.com/articles/2013/08/20/are-oscar-contenders-the-new-blockbusters

WB is doing nothing to counteract this perception - to build positive perception of MOS.

Easiest way to do that would have been to announce an MOS solo sequel sometime after WF and JL. Even if WB didn't mean it, it would change some of the perceptions.

They announced a stand-alone SR sequel (ironically rumored to be called MOS) and it wasn't for a full year later that it became clear there would be no sequel. They could at least have done the same with MOS.

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

Any word on how the premiere in Japan went ( They're almost a day ahead, right?) yesterday?

 

[Marvin]

I don't trust WB and I don't think they value Superman/MOS.

If they were trying to build an MOS franchise you'd think they would try to protect it.

The impression out there, given Robinov's words and Batman coming in for the next film, is that MOS was a disappointment or did just OK - a la The Wolverine.

A new column about the summer flicks and how there were no blockbuster and Wolverine and MOS did just healthy business. MOS's performance seen as comparable to Wolverine.

2012 gave us three billion dollar blockbusters in the shape of The Avengers ($1.5 billion), Skyfall ($1.2 billion) and The Dark Knight Rises ($1.1 billion). But 2013 hasn’t come close to producing such smash-hits, with superhero movies like Man of Steel and The Wolverine doing healthy business without reaching the dizzy heights

http://www.ign.com/articles/2013/08/20/are-oscar-contenders-the-new-blockbusters

I'm all but convinced you are going to take any bit of information you find and some how present it in a way that fits your agenda.

Unfortunately this list is only domestic, however there is something to be gained from it.
Particularly the film that rests just underneath MOS. I mean to compare Returns to Wolverine would be one thing but seriously...

However, yes because that article said that both MOS and Wolverine failed to meet the dizzying heights of the billion dollar franchise events from last year they in fact mean that these two films are comparable. WB should hurry up with the damage control.
Unlike the last superman movie WB really needed and expect this film to perform like one of those three high profile sequels last year

 

[Tempest]

I hope the cameo thing doesn't happen. Its bad enough they are not doing an MOS trilogy but filling WF with cameos will make that really not a WF.

The thing is all the development of the Superman character that didn't take place in MOS, the potential for a great Lois/Clark arc through a trilogy of films (Amy and Cavill showed signs of a real spark together) that should have come in a trilogy is being chucked. We will never know if Superman could have been, if not a billion dollar franchise, then an 800 million dollar franchise - the jump to greater heights for these kind of films occurs, or not, in the second (stand-alone) film.

Sacrifice the MOS franchise to get to JL and Batman films - but JL is no guarantee and neither is WF (short of Bale returning).

Did you get any firm evidence supporting your theory on Superman never making another solo movie, or is this you making **** up to sound important?

 

[dalonewolf]

I hope the cameo thing doesn't happen. Its bad enough they are not doing an MOS trilogy but filling WF with cameos will make that really not a WF.

The thing is all the development of the Superman character that didn't take place in MOS, the potential for a great Lois/Clark arc through a trilogy of films (Amy and Cavill showed signs of a real spark together) that should have come in a trilogy is being chucked. We will never know if Superman could have been, if not a billion dollar franchise, then an 800 million dollar franchise - the jump to greater heights for these kind of films occurs, or not, in the second (stand-alone) film.

Sacrifice the MOS franchise to get to JL and Batman films - but JL is no guarantee and neither is WF (short of Bale returning).

Are u unsatisfied???
If so why???
the rest of the world seem to be going crazy over superman/batman news
we all know we are getting a mos 2
just not as fast as most people wanted the WF announcement is to speed of the progress on JL.
im glad WB/DC is finally stepping things up
and character development Sucks we all know who superman is by now just like batman
Its time for a change damn all the talking get to the action
I have never read a comic book and expected it to have a love story or or every issue to explain superman or any other hero origins
This superman is for this generation
and many people can't get the donner flims out of thier minds