Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Poeman]

Hope this film isnt as serious as Dark Knight althought i'd love for it to be...Just wondering because kids love the humor and some humor helps bring $$$ during the summer

 

[db85usa]

It is, financially... Studios consider a film a success if it gets 2x(production budget)... ie, they get their money back... And if it does 550 M, i think we're definitely seeing sequels and JL... If it does 400M and below... you can say goodbye to Superman for the next 20 years... and if it does inbetween, then anything's possible...

But it won't be for most of us fans.. we want the BILLION dollar... (at least I do)... In fact, I secret want it to beat Ironman 3... it's like a competition for us fans...



Yes it will... HUGE marketing as well.. and it appeals to kids/families... so, it'll definitely bite a huge chunk out of MOS... If you're a parent with younger kids and you only have time to go out once in June or twice... you'll pick MU over MOS....

True but the 6 year old and up is going to want to see Superman. There's no doubt about that. But I give credit to WB wanting to stay gritty and not cheesy. So if it worked for Batman, it should work for Superman (the gritty/realism type approach anyway.)

 

[Marvin]

I think WB really want's to tap into that fathers day crowd, and some of these spots I've heard are working on that angle.

I'm personally antip Pixar to have another bad year. They obviously won't be the biggest animated film this year(not with that other big one around the corner). They don't have THAT great a reputation anymore(after two bad years) with all these sequels and this time, they will be deal head on with Chris Nolan himself.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

First off This is the end is rated R so there should not be any 14-17 year old at the movie. Also no one is anticipating TITE. TITE also opens on a Wednesday so anyone going to see it will probably have seen it Friday. MOS on the other hand has more anticipation than any movie in recent years. SR is not going to keep people from seeing this movie. MU comes out a week later and even though it might win the weekend WOM for MOS will keep it in 2nd. WWZ is not going to attract girls to see Hot Brad, LMAO!! Dude is in his 40s and isn't attracting teenage girls anymore. Zombie movies are played out.

THANKYOU!
Brad is hot, but NOT in that movie.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

The WWZ trailers are laughable.

With the zombie tsunami that look like Brad Pitt should be riding with a surf board.

Prometheus numbers (125 m) would not surprise me.

 

[Autonet]

I still predict MoS might not have a record breaking opening, but will have staying power similar to Titanic with word of mouth. Could just me being over-hyped, I dunno. First reactions this week will be key though.

 

[Tobias]

MU is going head to head with MoS. MoS had this date scheduled for a long time. I think MU opens to $75-$85 Million so yes, it'll hurt MoS 2nd weekend but not by much. If MoS opens to say, $140 Million, and has good WOM, it could face a 45-48% drop. With a large OW, that would be a huge win. World War Z looks slated for a $45-$55 Million opener although if it has poor reviews, it'll open to much less than that. Obviously if I had to choose a box office king for this summer, I'm going to go with Man of Steel.

Deadline had an article that once a film tracks over 100 million it is a crapshoot to say exactly what the OW number will be. What are you basing your 140 million on? I am dubious of these OW predictions especially after seeing they are not reliable for 100 million plus openings.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Hope this film isnt as serious as Dark Knight althought i'd love for it to be...Just wondering because kids love the humor and some humor helps bring $$$ during the summer

Humor definitely help some concepts (Avengers, Transformers, Iron Man).

Others do fine without it (Batman, James Bond).

I would think Superman fits in better with the former but we shall see.

 

[Tobias]

I still predict MoS might not have a record breaking opening, but will have staying power similar to Titanic with word of mouth. Could just me being over-hyped, I dunno. First reactions this week will be key though.

Which first reactions this week? Are the critics seeing it this week? I read that the reviews should start to come out 7 - 10 days before release. Early next week. If you are referring to the reviews yes, they will be key.

 

[db85usa]

Deadline had an article that once a film tracks over 100 million it is a crapshoot to say exactly what the OW number will be. What are you basing your 140 million on? I am dubious of these OW predictions especially after seeing they are not reliable for 100 million plus openings.

I cannot delve in too deep with specifics. A lot of it is based on demographics, similar titles within the past 5 years, what's available in the box office right now, and more. Another is merchandise sales. If sales are up in stores it's a pretty good indicator that the film will make quite a bit of money as well.

 

[Tobias]

I cannot delve in too deep with specifics. A lot of it is based on demographics, similar titles within the past 5 years, what's available in the box office right now, and more. Another is merchandise sales. If sales are up in stores it's a pretty good indicator that the film will make quite a bit of money as well.

Thanks. At least you are not pulling it out of your hat - which I feel some fans are.

If you go to non-fan film sites many are projecting 250 million domestic. These sites tend to have a better track record on this because fans have a built in bias to go high.

I too well recall SR and how I got caught up in all of that. Predicting way too high numbers. I am far more cautious this time around.

Don't know if you know or if you do if you can say but will WB be happy with a 600 million WW BO - happy enough to move forward with JL? 600 million is the number we are hearing. It came from something Goyer supposedly said.

 

[Rhonimus]

i'll maintain that anything over 600ww should be regarded as a successful reboot

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Normally $600 million would be very good.
But it just doesn't match the hype. If the hype was less, I would be fine with it.

 

[Tobias]

I cannot delve in too deep with specifics. A lot of it is based on demographics, similar titles within the past 5 years, what's available in the box office right now, and more. Another is merchandise sales. If sales are up in stores it's a pretty good indicator that the film will make quite a bit of money as well.

I don't know you from Adam but am taking you at your word re: your contacts and inside knowledge. You seem legit. I appreciate you giving out what info you can.

No more questions. I've asked you enough and you've been kind to reply.

Just a comment on how critical this film is. On a different level than most think.

This is a not-so-subtle re-imaging of Kal-El for a new generation. An obvious effort to make him popular again with the GA and the GP.

Long overdue. DC/WB should have done this in 2006 and even earlier.

The costume change I dis-liked at first. Now I love it. The suit looks "cool" - better than the Spidey suit or the Cap suit and others. They pulled it off.

The 'S is for hope. Focus off Superman and onto the man.

No mention of Superman in the film I guess. If it gets a sequel I wonder if they will continue with that.

The spit-curl is gone and apparently that appeals to non-fans.

No kryptonite. Brilliant. Let human technology rise to the point where it can take on/down Supes and not just K.

I think after we see this film there will be a new Kal-El. Orrganically grown from what came before but a big-move forward. The kind of move Batman and others were given years ago.

Whether this was all Nolan's doing or if WB said we need to move forward in new areas with the character, I think it is exactly what is needed at this time..

 

[Ms. Marvel]

The costume change I dis-liked at first. Now I love it. The suit looks "cool" - better than the Spidey suit or the Cap suit and others. They pulled it off.

Heyyy...the Cap TFA suit was badass!

 

[Dr.]

No mention of Superman in the film I guess. If it gets a sequel I wonder if they will continue with that.

In a recent interview, Snyder confirms that Supes does get called “Superman” in the movie.

 

[Autonet]

In a recent interview, Snyder confirms that Supes does get called “Superman” in the movie.

He even said the exactly line. I'm sure he gets called that more than once.

 

[747]

Russell Crowe ‏@russellcrowe 24 May
Istanbul is magical and crazy . Had my coffee grounds read by a fortune teller, apparently @ManofSteelMovie is going to be huge

 

[InJustice]

This is a not-so-subtle re-imaging of Kal-El for a new generation. An obvious effort to make him popular again with the GA and the GP.

Long overdue. DC/WB should have done this in 2006 and even earlier.

It really is long overdue, and I've noticed something interesting. All of the DC characters' movies so far have always involved continuing with the old legacy in spite of the fact that they were either bastardized, inaccurate, or just flatout box office failure. You see this in the Batman films and it broke the cycle when Nolan took over the trilogy and revitalized the character's legacy.

You can also see this in Superman's film legacy where I and II were classics among the fans, and then you see III and IV being flops, and then Returns...which did nothing to re-imagine Kal-El and quite frankly existed only for nostalgic value. It's about damn time that we get a Kal-El that didn't have to depend so heavily on past films.

The costume change I dis-liked at first. Now I love it. The suit looks "cool" - better than the Spidey suit or the Cap suit and others. They pulled it off.

I have to agree, when I first saw the suit, the colours were severely underwhelming until I saw the trailers. That's when I thought "damn, it's actually a beautiful suit." The simplicity, stylistics, and the beauty of the suit is what ultimately won me over.

The 'S is for hope. Focus off Superman and onto the man.

Not necessarily, the fact that S means hope is focusing in-depth on Superman's Kryptonian genealogy, or in this case, the House of El. Plus you gotta like that Superman didn't just herpderp an S so that he can call himself Superman.

No mention of Superman in the film I guess. If it gets a sequel I wonder if they will continue with that.

You do know that at the end of Trailer 3, Lois attempts to create a name for Kal-El upon seeing his S, she tries to say "Super..." but is interrupted by feedback. Moreover, Snyder said that Superman as a name exists in his film. Obvious sign that he's going to be recognized as Superman.

The spit-curl is gone and apparently that appeals to non-fans.

The spit-curl isn't going to make or break a character, fine by me if WB-DC/Snyder/etc. thought it was a good choice. If other fans disagree then they're obviously nitpicking.

No kryptonite. Brilliant. Let human technology rise to the point where it can take on/down Supes and not just K.

I wouldn't get too ahead of myself, if MoS evolves into a trilogy, then I wouldn't put it past Snyder to introduce Kryptonite as a means to harm Superman.

Plus it would be asinine to introduce Kryptonite when you have two Kryptonians battling for the fate of the world. Perhaps you introduce Luthor, who found an element that has the ability to weaken Superman?

I think after we see this film there will be a new Kal-El. Orrganically grown from what came before but a big-move forward. The kind of move Batman and others were given years ago.

Whether this was all Nolan's doing or if WB said we need to move forward in new areas with the character, I think it is exactly what is needed at this time..

It might be a bit of both, WB probably gave it more credence when they realized that Nolan revitalized Bruce Wayne, and felt that perhaps Nolan overseeing the project and the story would give WB more confidence in seeing that Kal-El can be given the same treatment.

 

[terry78]

Hope this film isnt as serious as Dark Knight althought i'd love for it to be...Just wondering because kids love the humor and some humor helps bring $$$ during the summer

A lot of the humor of Superman usually comes from people reacting to him and his "aw shucks" responses to doing incredible things. The funniest ep of STAS was when he was fighting Mr. Mxysptlk and basically not even lifting a finger while Mxy just got more and more pissed.

 

[Liam_H]

Normally $600 million would be very good.
But it just doesn't match the hype. If the hype was less, I would be fine with it.

Don't fall into the trap of the hype. $600 million is good.

 

[Tobias]

Russell Crowe ‏@russellcrowe 24 May
Istanbul is magical and crazy . Had my coffee grounds read by a fortune teller, apparently @ManofSteelMovie is going to be huge

LOL - Crowe must be reading some of the predictions in this thread.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Don't fall into the trap of the hype. $600 million is good.

Fine, I'll settle for it's okay.

 

[JOE]

Good points. I think MU will really hurt MOS over the weeks they go head to head. Dumb scheduling by WB. MOS should have gotten the July shot. How much MU takes away from MOS is a guess but it could add up to big numbers as they will be going head-to-head for their runs.

SR will hold OW down IMO to under 100 million but once WOM gets out those who didn't see it because of SR (I know quite a few of these) will I think end up going to see it. Immediate opening weekend impact but minimal long-term from SR as I see it.

I think 250 is a safe bet and if the action is good as it looks I can see 260, 270 and maybe 280 domestic.

That's fine, but you see why I was being EXTREMELY modest with the domestic BO.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

650 m is a decent launch for a reboot.

But may not be the strong enough to launch various solo projects that lead to a massive Justice League movie like many fanboys are hoping for.

However, if MOS can manage 750 m it will be an instant green light for The Flash, Wonder Woman, Batman/GL reboots, etc.