Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Liam_H]

I think the legs are going to be more fun to watch. We already have a range of where this is gonna open up at. How it holds up is the question.

 

[Sup3rman81]

I agree about The Avengers being just okay. Most overrated movie ever. I loved IM1, despised IM3, and thought CA was great until Steve became Cap, then his character became really boring. Here's hoping Snyder and Goyer do a better job of making a pleasant, well-adjusted hero interesting.

I couldn't agree more. Avengers was very overrated. I think CA and Thor performed ok but not great at the BO and the only reason they got sequels was because of Avengers. Incredible Hulk did about the same as CA but they didnt rush to get a sequel for it.

 

[sf2]

On FB MOS has a poor showing. Something like 660,000 likes compared to 1.2 million for Spiderman and 13 million for IMR and 11 million for TDKR. Don't know about twitter. Based on FB yeah, folks don't seem to be paying attention.

That is really poor!!! FB has a big influence on how popular / good the result of the box office is.

 

[Rhonimus]

Quick question. If this movie did make a billion, would you be surprised?

yep, definitely ..

i just don't see that happening, although it would be nice if it did ..

my head tells me anything above 600ww would be gravy .. depends hugely upon OS take & WOM leading up to the Aug release date in some huge Asian markets IMO ..

holding thumbs though ..

 

[Bruce Malone]

A billion would be pretty unprecedented for this type of film. Regardless of genre the first film in a franchise will rarely hit a billion and most of the billion dollar hits aside from a few outliers (alice in wonderland) most of the the billion dollars club is composed of sequels.

I've held that $700m is the films ceiling for a while and i'm sticking to that.

 

[Dr. Fortress]

OW numbers are going to be very interesting, they will be a lot higher than people expect. I think the word of mouth will be good, very good. This movie will have the legs to carry it for sometime, jus wait and see.

Domestic - 300+
Overseas - 500+
Worldwide- 800+

Would I be surprised IF this movie joined the billion dollar club? No.

 

[Sup3rman81]

That is really poor!!! FB has a big influence on how popular / good the result of the box office is.

I dont think its any indication of the lack of enthusiasm for this movie. Iron Man has had 2 previous movies and Avengers to help boost its popularity. Of course it's going to have more FB followers. Boxoffice.com did a break down and said this film is tracking very high and over 85% are aware the movie is coming out. Its numbers on FB didn't even bother boxoffice.com and they felt good with how MOS is being recognized.

 

[ironman_rick]

There is lots of action in this flick...and this should push it to $800 million at least (that's what I voted) if it opens big in china and russia.

I wouldn't be surprised if this hits a billion. In fact I welcome it. If Supes his a billion, the production for the Justice League movie will finally get underway.

 

[Tobias]

You realise THOR did US $181m / Int $268m --- WW $449m, right? Your prediction is just a $50m increase.

You folks are doing the exact same thing to Dark World that people were doing to IM3 a couple of months ago. "People didn't like IM2, there won't be much, if any, increase".
As you can see at your nearest Box Office website, The Avengers made people aware of & care about these characters, those same people now want to see where the characters go next. The much-overblown-on-the-internet dislike of IM2 was wholly irrelevant (as is THOR 1) and IM3 looks to finish around $1.2bn. That's about the combined totals of IM 1 & 2. (IM3 currently at: US $348m & OS $757m --- Worldwide: $1,105bn).

In light of that, and given it has less competition than IM3, I could pretty easily see Thor doing $250-300m US/ $600-700m OS.



My top 5 US:
IM3
HG: Catching Fire - $360-395m
Despicable Me 2/ Monsters U - $350m, maybe more for one of them.
MoS/ TH: Desolation of Smaug/ T:The Dark World - $300m


Top 5 OS:
IM3
TH: DoS - $1bn
T:TDW - $850m-$1bn
DM2/ MU - $800-900m

DoS may or may not loose some steam in the US, I don't see it catching IM3 unless it's significantly better than AUJ.

I think Hunger Games will drop a little from the first US, will increase overseas but not enough to get past $700-800m.

MoS - $600-650m WW




I'll say $150-200m US, $300-350m OS.

Not sure if Thor2 hits a billion but it is going to be huge. The USA Today film roundtable thinks it could be the big surprise breakout film this year.

Makes one wonder what will happen with the next Cap.

The international market is driving these films to a billion or more and will be increasingly important.

One question is when will the international market start to affect the film product being put out. When will 3rd world stars beging to become a common feature of American made films? Gatsby featured a prominent Indian actress and more of this will likely come.

As the Asian market becomes the biggest driver in terms of profits for film companies will we see changes in the industry?

 

[robot]

Not sure if Thor2 hits a billion but it is going to be huge. The USA Today film roundtable thinks it could be the big surprise breakout film this year.

Makes one wonder what will happen with the next Cap.

The international market is driving these films to a billion or more and will be increasingly important.

One question is when will the international market start to affect the film product being put out. When will 3rd world stars beging to become a common feature of American made films? Gatsby featured a prominent Indian actress and more of this will likely come.

As the Asian market becomes the biggest driver in terms of profits for film companies will we see changes in the industry?

If Hollywood want to survive well into the 21st century, it has to include the rest of the world. Shows that portrays 'Great American Heroes vs Evil people from other Countries' aren't gonna cut it...

Also, Iron Man was smart in doing a 7 minute footage for the Chinese market with local stars... Imagine if the next blockbuster has different takes for certain markets with local stars.. it'll be a new way to market films.. when you have a local star, chances are lots of people are going to watch it...

 

[Tobias]

There is lots of action in this flick...and this should push it to $800 million at least (that's what I voted) if it opens big in china and russia.

I wouldn't be surprised if this hits a billion. In fact I welcome it. If Supes his a billion, the production for the Justice League movie will finally get underway.

Unfortunately WB is not doing a big PR push for MOS in Asia.

On a different note, most of Asia's large countries don't get MOS till August. So if the action is great maybe the social media in Asia will make up for lack of marketing and get word out about how action-packed the film is..

MOS needs big numbers in China, Russia, Japan and SK. SR's numbers were not too great in those countries as I recall.

 

[sf2]

I dont think its any indication of the lack of enthusiasm for this movie. Iron Man has had 2 previous movies and Avengers to help boost its popularity. Of course it's going to have more FB followers. Boxoffice.com did a break down and said this film is tracking very high and over 85% are aware the movie is coming out. Its numbers on FB didn't even bother boxoffice.com and they felt good with how MOS is being recognized.

I hope u r right. But the FB does tell something... either lack of interest or lack of awareness.n most of us really ooverestimatd the power of S

 

[robot]

I hope u r right. But the FB does tell something... either lack of interest or lack of awareness.n most of us really ooverestimatd the power of S

I believe it's lack of awareness... in my country, hardly anyone knows that MOS exists outside of some regular moviegoers and superman fans...

They really dropped the ball in their OS marketing...

 

[GreenKToo]

MoS will be just fine..If your gonna go by how many likes it has on FB to gauge interest, then why not do the same with the YT views of its trailers..I believe its in the tens of millions btw. just behind avengers. fair is fair.

 

[robot]

MoS will be just fine..If your gonna go by how many likes it has on FB to gauge interest, then why not do the same with the YT views of its trailers..I believe its in the tens of millions btw. just behind avengers. fair is fair.

I hope you're right of course... but purposely being pessimistic so that when it hits a billion bucks, i'll be jumping for joy!!!

 

[Tobias]

MoS will be just fine..If your gonna go by how many likes it has on FB to gauge interest, then why not do the same with the YT views of its trailers..I believe its in the tens of millions btw. just behind avengers. fair is fair.

There is a co-relation between FB and a film's success but it is not one to one. The millions of YouTube views you'd think would have led to a higher FB friend count. It's like 650K. TASM by contrast has 1.17 million.

It's an general indicator and maybe the count will rise in the final 3 weeks. It really needs to get closer to a million to be in the ballpark of these other big films.

 

[Marvin]

Looking at the official intl release dates on the official site. China is strangely absent..
So is Canada but I know that much is just an omission.

 

[ironman_rick]

Unfortunately WB is not doing a big PR push for MOS in Asia.

On a different note, most of Asia's large countries don't get MOS till August. So if the action is great maybe the social media in Asia will make up for lack of marketing and get word out about how action-packed the film is..

MOS needs big numbers in China, Russia, Japan and SK. SR's numbers were not too great in those countries as I recall.

SR ain't great. But Superman 1 & 2 have been immortalized in Asian and rest of the world. If Thor can gross 450 million pre-avengers, MOS shouldn't have problem topping that by a few hundred million.

I also think all the adverts and billboards promoting MOS will come out around july in asia.

But .....why can't WB just release MOS at the same time all over the world? Aren't they afraid of bootlegs ? (the later they release the movie.....the higher the number of bootlegs hitting rest of the world).

 

[robot]

SR ain't great. But Superman 1 & 2 have been immortalized in Asian and rest of the world. If Thor can gross 450 million pre-avengers, MOS shouldn't have problem topping that by a few hundred million.

I also think all the adverts and billboards promoting MOS will come out around july in asia.

But .....why can't WB just release MOS at the same time all over the world? Aren't they afraid of bootlegs ? (the later they release the movie.....the higher the number of bootlegs hitting rest of the world).

I don't think they'll be doing billboards this late in the game. Ironman Billboards came out here about a year before the movie was released... Billboards usually have a minimum of 3 month contracts, or 6 months... it'll be silly to spend all that money for 2 weeks...

I have a feeling they are just not going to bother promoting MOS overseas at all.. maybe a few Western countries like UK...

 

[Marvin]

SR ain't great. But Superman 1 & 2 have been immortalized in Asian and rest of the world. If Thor can gross 450 million pre-avengers, MOS shouldn't have problem topping that by a few hundred million.

Great points.
It will all be so obvious once it's said an done.

 

[fake]

There is a co-relation between FB and a film's success but it is not one to one. The millions of YouTube views you'd think would have led to a higher FB friend count. It's like 650K. TASM by contrast has 1.17 million.

It's an general indicator and maybe the count will rise in the final 3 weeks. It really needs to get closer to a million to be in the ballpark of these other big films.

Actually, I have been a fan of the the MoS FB page since day 1. Till 5 weeks ago, there were only 100k followers. The trailer hitting in April pushed it to 400k almost overnight, and the new trailer took it from 550k 2 days ago to 675k today. It is still adding fans almost everyday. As someone said, a lot of FB pages pick up fans closer to release and after release, especially for a new property. TASM is one year after release now.

 

[Tobias]

Actually, I have been a fan of the the MoS FB page since day 1. Till 5 weeks ago, there were only 100k followers. The trailer hitting in April pushed it to 400k almost overnight, and the new trailer took it from 550k 2 days ago to 675k today. It is still adding fans almost everyday. As someone said, a lot of FB pages pick up fans closer to release and after release, especially for a new property. TASM is one year after release now.

In part true. TASM's 1.17 million includes friending after the film came out. I wonder what the count was before it came out last year.

Hopefully MOS can get to around 800K by release.

It's not an absolute determinative but the films hitting on all quadrants - high FB numbers, trailer views, Twitter. Those tend to be the blockbusters.

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

Not replying to anyone in particular, but count me among those that really loved Thor & CA:TFA. I'd give them both a strong 8 and I can't wait to see the sequels. The Avengers is also just an 8 in my book, a very good CBM but imo it wasn't anymore enjoyable than Marvel's individual entries. With that being said, I think MOS is going to perform much better than expectations and has more B.O. potential than the next two Marvel films.

Zach Snyder has already hinted that if you think you have seen the major action in the trailers, you really haven't. I know It seems like we have seen the whole movie, but The Amazing Snyder Man has cleverly only shown shown us about 5 minutes or so of a 2 hr 23 minute movie (incl.credits) over the past 11 months. Of that 5 minutes, the editing is so fast in regards to the action scenes, that it really doesn't give much away - especially the overall flow of the movie. The meat and potatoes of each trailer is really the same, and with each successive trailer they just throw in a few more (blink and you'll miss them) choice images that we haven't seen, edit it a little differently and change the music.

This movie is going to have incredible action, tons of emotion, and an origin story that is known and beloved the World over, and a shirtless HC who the ladies seem to be drooling over. Throw in a good measure of Star power with Crowe, Costner, Adams and Hollywood heavy hitters Nolan, Snyder etc, and it's hard for me to see this movie fizzling at the B.O. The only caveat in my book is if the pacing of the movie is off, and it is ponderous and plodding. If this film is as enjoyable as STID which was fantastic, and the reviews are glowing, I see (at least)$140 Million O.W. and much less drop off the following weekend than IM3 experienced. Internationally this movie is at the very least likely to go gangbusters in the UK and Australia.The key to the opening weekend B.O. are the reviews. If they are glowing enough, and WB lifts the embargo sooner rather than later, then I could see MOS approaching TDK/IM3 numbers.

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

Looking at the official intl release dates on the official site. China is strangely absent..
So is Canada but I know that much is just an omission.

I guessing Canada is lumped into the North American part of the release schedule.

 

[Tobias]

Not replying to anyone in particular, but count me among those that really loved Thor & CA:TFA. I'd give them both a strong 8 and I can't wait to see the sequels. The Avengers is also just an 8 in my book, a very good CBM but imo it wasn't anymore enjoyable than Marvel's individual entries. With that being said, I think MOS is going to perform much better than expectations and has more B.O. potential than the next two Marvel films.

Zach Snyder has already hinted that if you think you have seen the major action in the trailers, you really haven't. I know It seems like we have seen the whole movie, but The Amazing Snyder Man has cleverly only shown shown us about 5 minutes or so of a 2 hr 23 minute movie (incl.credits) over the past 11 months. Of that 5 minutes, the editing is so fast in regards to the action scenes, that it really doesn't give much away - especially the overall flow of the movie. The meat and potatoes of each trailer is really the same, and with each successive trailer they just throw in a few more (blink and you'll miss them) choice images that we haven't seen, edit it a little differently and change the music.

This movie is going to have incredible action, tons of emotion, and an origin story that is known and beloved the World over, and a shirtless HC who the ladies seem to be drooling over. Throw in a good measure of Star power with Crowe, Costner, Adams and Hollywood heavy hitters Nolan, Snyder etc, and it's hard for me to see this movie fizzling at the B.O. The only caveat in my book is if the pacing of the movie is off, and it is ponderous and plodding. If this film is as enjoyable as STID which was fantastic, and the reviews are glowing, I see (at least)$140 Million O.W. and much less drop off the following weekend than IM3 experienced. Internationally this movie is at the very least likely to go gangbusters in the UK and Australia.The key to the opening weekend B.O. are the reviews. If they are glowing enough, and WB lifts the embargo sooner rather than later, then I could see MOS approaching TDK/IM3 numbers.

Why are the reviews embargoed? I hadn't heard that. Is it a normal thing for a studio to do?