Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[robot]

OMG... I just realized that Titanic have over 20 times OW numbers... most movies are lucky with 2.5 times...

If only MOS have have a fraction of that kind of legs, it'll be GREAT!!!

 

[Bruce Malone]

If you remember what that time period was like it's not really that surprising. Also no movie released in the summer could get a fraction of avatar's legs let alone titanics.

 

[GreenKToo]

I remember that summer.

All those films would have done better had they been the only big release of that May.
It's actually that simple. Not everyone has money to take the family to every film a month, especially with all the big fat surcharges running around.

that wasnt meant for you, but I get what you mean. I still think folks will see MoS no matter the competition IF its good. and those films may have had drops from their previous films, but they still did huge numbers inspite of the competition.

Just look at how many times folks went to see avengers and IM 3. One a recent film and they other still playing, both in a very bad economy.
Folks want an escape, if only for a couple of hours. this will offer it in spades.

 

[Notrip]

BoxOffice.com has moved their predictions up. 4 million for OW and 15 million TDG.

Expect these numbers to keep moving up, up, and away

Opening Weekend: $112,000,000 [proj.] | Total Domestic Gross: $340,000,000 [pred.]

 

[GreenKToo]

BoxOffice.com has moved their predictions up. 4 million for OW and 15 million TDG.

Expect these numbers to keep moving up, up, and away

Damn. well that sounds really good.

 

[DKDetective]

that wasnt meant for you, but I get what you mean. I still think folks will see MoS no matter the competition IF its good. and those films may have had drops from their previous films, but they still did huge numbers inspite of the competition.

Just look at how many times folks went to see avengers and IM 3. One a recent film and they other still playing, both in a very bad economy.
Folks want an escape, if only for a couple of hours. this will offer it in spades.

They were also all cases of lesser sequels. The drops could also be attributed to being lesser quality movies with weaker word of mouth and less repeat business.

 

[robot]

If you remember what that time period was like it's not really that surprising. Also no movie released in the summer could get a fraction of avatar's legs let alone titanics.

I think it was hugely surprising to everyone... No movie, avatar included, comes close to that kind of multiples (more than 20 times multiples)... i heard that girls from all over the world was watching titanic like 7 times and more... in fact, i think i watched it 3 times at least.. though i watched avatar 4 times...

 

[Marvin]

that wasnt meant for you, but I get what you mean. I still think folks will see MoS no matter the competition IF its good. and those films may have had drops from their previous films, but they still did huge numbers inspite of the competition.

Just look at how many times folks went to see avengers and IM 3. One a recent film and they other still playing, both in a very bad economy.
Folks want an escape, if only for a couple of hours. this will offer it in spades.

I see what you are saying. I'm not disputing a great films ability to make big money in almost any situation. I'm pointing to the idea that a film can make more money in a better circumstance.
If TDKR and Avengers opened on the same day they would end up making lots on OW and total WW. However if they opened up 3 months apart they probably stand to make more.

BoxOffice.com has moved their predictions up. 4 million for OW and 15 million TDG.

Expect these numbers to keep moving up, up, and away

Just now these people are realizing just what it is they are dealing with.
I love it.

I'm not going to be so bold as to predict avengers numbers, but i remember after Avengers started smashing records, everyone and their mother felt kinda dumb for not seeing how obvious it was.
A snyder directed Superman with a solid script...in hindsight people might kick themselves.

 

[Project862006]

this is the one movie friends at my job constantly talk about

this is this years avenger it is the event film of the year

 

[matrix_ghost]

And all three dropped loads from their previous film's domestic grosses.

Hmmm.....

Quality also plays a role.
It is the general consensus that aside from TF , all the movies were a step down from the previous flicks in terms of quality.

 

[Kryptonian Warrior]

So I asked this question a few weeks ago when trailer 4 was released. With the all of the new footage we have seen since then, has anyone's estimations increased or decreased?

 

[matrix_ghost]

Increased ever so slightly.
My estimates had been 300 million north america and around 400 million outside.
I'm predicting around 350 million north america and the same outside.
Part of that is due to the promotions. We here in Holland are still seeing the early footage and not the kick-ass stuff of recent.

 

[G.Godfrey]

My estimations have remained roughly the same, only the OW increased. I have it at;

115 OW
335 DOM
425 INT for a total WW gross of 763 million.

My lowest estimation (If WOM is only good but not exceptional and somehow none of the movies opening in the next month and a half flop/underperform on their own) is

100 OW
280 DOM
300 INT for a 580 WW total a

and my highest (Counting on an exceptional WOM and only 2 really big hits to open in the near future - MU and DM2) is

130 OW
380 DOM
470 INT for a total of 850 WW.

Even in worst case scenario I can't see it finishing it's WW run at less than 550 million but I wouldn't say that it's impossible for the film to move pass my highest estimation. But predicting such a huge breakout is impossible IMO and depends on too many factors. One things for sure though, it's going to be VERY fun (and a bit nerve wrecking lol) following this films BO results. I am especially intrigued by what will happen in it's 2nd weekend, particularly if MOS does indeed set a new June OW record. I could even see a very small drop and an upset win over MU on it's OW. Or imagine how embarrassing it would be if WWZ beat MOS in it's second weekend as well

 

[Liam_H]

I can't see MOS being number 1 for 2 weeks straight. Because I can't see MU opening to anything less than $70 million, unless all the fans of the first movie just don't care anymore after 12 years but its still a family/kids movie.

So only way for MOS to top that is to have mega opening and I mean approaching $150 million with a good drop. Or break the June record and have ridiculous hold like the first Spider-Man movie, which had weak competition in its 2nd weekend.

 

[G.Godfrey]

I can't see MOS being number 1 for 2 weeks straight. Because I can't see MU opening to anything less than $70 million, unless all the fans of the first movie just don't care anymore after 12 years but its still a family/kids movie.

So only way for MOS to top that is to have mega opening and I mean approaching $150 million with a good drop. Or break the June record and have ridiculous hold like the first Spider-Man movie, which had weak competition in its 2nd weekend.

Well yeah that's what I had in mind and my remark about that was thinking in the best case scenario way. I know chances are slim but again it's certainly not impossible. Realistically though I do expect MOS to have a small drop (this assuming of course the movie is as great as the marketing is making it out to be) and not lose out to MU by too much.

 

[robot]

this is the one movie friends at my job constantly talk about

this is this years avenger it is the event film of the year

I wish I can say the same in my country (Malaysia)... I just talked to more people today and none of them even know or care that Superman exists... none of them have seen any posters, nothing..

But they had a showing of the trailer in Fast 6, and guess what? They used the first trailer that was released one year ago (I think the teaser), and people who say it was not interested in Man of Steel.. they think it has no action...

Also, checked out more cinemas.. NO posters... every other movie opening this year has posters.. even the small budget films...

I wish I could strangle some WB executive...

 

[G.Godfrey]

I wish I can say the same in my country (Malaysia)... I just talked to more people today and none of them even know or care that Superman exists... none of them have seen any posters, nothing..

But they had a showing of the trailer in Fast 6, and guess what? They used the first trailer that was released one year ago (I think the teaser), and people who say it was not interested in Man of Steel.. they think it has no action...

Also, checked out more cinemas.. NO posters... every other movie opening this year has posters.. even the small budget films...

I wish I could strangle some WB executive...

Well, keep in mind that Malaysia doesn't exactly bring in a lot of $$$ for the studios (for example, only 10 million of the 1500 million that Avengers made came from Malaysia) so I can see why they wouldn't bother spending a lot on advertising there. Plus in a lot of countries around the world the marketing is up to the local distributor and not WB. I'm sure WB know what they're doing and know how much to expect from certain countries plus have a great deal of confidence that the movie will sell itself through WOM pretty much everywhere. Which it just might.

 

[robot]

Well, keep in mind that Malaysia doesn't exactly bring in a lot of $$$ for the studios (for example, only 10 million of the 1500 million that Avengers made came from Malaysia) so I can see why they wouldn't bother spending a lot on advertising there. Plus in a lot of countries around the world the marketing is up to the local distributor and not WB. I'm sure WB know what they're doing and know how much to expect from certain countries plus have a great deal of confidence that the movie will sell itself through WOM pretty much everywhere. Which it just might.

I understand what you're saying, but put 10 Malaysia together and you get $100 Million... and if I am not mistaken, this lack of promotion is unique to MOS and almost around the world, as far as I am hearing.

Also, I am not talking about any big promo, but making sure there are posters, that up to date trailers are distributed? Nothing... I mean, in comparison to other small budget movies, the marketing of MOS is non-existent...

And I don't suppose you think China is a small market too? Cause nothing there as well.. My GF lives there... so, again, nothing... nothing almost everywhere except for a few markets like the US and the UK...

 

[G.Godfrey]

I understand what you're saying, but put 10 Malaysia together and you get $100 Million... and if I am not mistaken, this lack of promotion is unique to MOS and almost around the world, as far as I am hearing.

Well I've seen tweets of billboard photos in several European countries and there's also been TV spots there (though I believe it opens on the 20th in most places there) and there is also presence in Philippines (or so I've been told) and tie-ins in Indonesia with MOS Mastercard debit card. I've also seen tweets with big subway banners from some Asian country.

And there was an article on THR some weeks ago that mentioned WB plans on repeating last years TDKR push (biggest for the studio up until that point, or so THR claims) in international markets for MOS and turn it into an event film.

Again, I'm sure it's fine. I've seen more evidence that there is international marketing presence than not. Also several magazine covers lately. This complaining about the lack of international marketing only seems to come from a select few fans on this forum from a select few countries and this turned into a big over exaggeration that WB is somehow not promoting this anywhere but in the US and UK. Ridiculous.

And I don't suppose you think China is a small market too? Cause nothing there as well.. My GF lives there... so, again, nothing... nothing almost everywhere except for a few markets like the US and the UK...

AFAIK there is currently no release date in China. Not even sure if they'll release the movie there.

 

[robot]

^ I sure hope you're right... I see no evidence... anyways, not releasing in China (is that's true) proves my point that they don't care about the International market.. outside of the US and Euro..

I am now going to talk to more of my friends in HK, SG, Indonesia and China to see what's happening on the ground...

I can tell you oen thing for sure... the marketing in Malaysia has to win some sort of World Record for 'the least promoted movie of all time'... You just go on the street and hardly anyone knows what you're talking about when you mention MOS...

 

[Micromind]

Nolan's movies (TDK, Inception, TDKR) have been quite successful in Asia (In India, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore) so marketing of MOS with Nolan's name and action scenes should do the trick, except there is no effort in that direction.

Simply thinking that because SR did not do well, so ignore these countries is poor thinking.

Edit: I am hoping that Marketing of MOS will start two weeks before the release date, but will it be sufficient ? I think that WB should have started marketing three weeks before.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Nolan's movies (TDK, Inception, TDKR) have been quite successful in Asia (In India, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore) so marketing of MOS with Nolan's name and action scenes should do the trick, except there is no effort in that direction.

Simply thinking that because SR did not do well, so ignore these countries is poor thinking.

Edit: I am hoping that Marketing of MOS will start two weeks before the release date, but will it be sufficient ? I think that WB should have started marketing three weeks before.

I highly doubt WB has that mentality.

 

[redp]

This whole idea that WB or local distributors aren't advertising MOS because of SR's performance is so silly.(Its faulty logic; there two different movies) WB aren't stupid; they have a plan just give it time. The internet marketing has started for MOS, so FB likes should increase over the few days.

 

[Juha Bach]

Well I've seen tweets of billboard photos in several European countries and there's also been TV spots there (though I believe it opens on the 20th in most places there) and there is also presence in Philippines (or so I've been told) and tie-ins in Indonesia with MOS Mastercard debit card. I've also seen tweets with big subway banners from some Asian country.

And there was an article on THR some weeks ago that mentioned WB plans on repeating last years TDKR push (biggest for the studio up until that point, or so THR claims) in international markets for MOS and turn it into an event film.

Again, I'm sure it's fine. I've seen more evidence that there is international marketing presence than not. Also several magazine covers lately. This complaining about the lack of international marketing only seems to come from a select few fans on this forum from a select few countries and this turned into a big over exaggeration that WB is somehow not promoting this anywhere but in the US and UK. Ridiculous.



AFAIK there is currently no release date in China. Not even sure if they'll release the movie there.

I have also been told about Philippines have a good presence for the movie. Marketing has been done well there. As for china, the movie will be released just at a latter date. The same was done with TDKR.

 

[sf2]

Wow... I gotta say MOS looks really great in all the tv spots. They r way better than SR the whole movie. Even the plane saving of SR look average compare to MOS tv spots.
I really hope it will do supes in box office.
I hope my prediction is wrong completely