Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Juha Bach]

Why are the reviews embargoed? I hadn't heard that. Is it a normal thing for a studio to do?

Its very normal. The most recent being iron man 3. After a press screening reviewers are usually only allowed to state whether its a good or bad but not to go into detail until the embargo is lifted.

 

[Tobias]

Its very normal. The most recent being iron man 3. After a press screening reviewers are usually only allowed to state whether its a good or bad but not to go into detail until the embargo is lifted.

We are 3 weeks out - is two weeks out the magic point at which reviews are allowed to be released? What is the expectation?

 

[Liam_H]

Studios want to control how positively/negatively the reviews can effect their movie. If this is as good as we've been hearing it should be out a week or so before the actual release.

 

[Tobias]

Studios want to control how positively/negatively the reviews can effect their movie. If this is as good as we've been hearing it should be out a week or so before the actual release.

So if there are good reviews they hold it till the last week or two before releasing? Interesting.

 

[Liam_H]

If the reviews are good WB or any studio would want the positive buzz to be apart of their final marketing push.

 

[Sup3rman81]

I guessing Canada is lumped into the North American part of the release schedule.

CHINA isnt absent from the list, they just have it listed as Hong Kong. I guess only that portion of China will get MoS

 

[Sup3rman81]

Looking at the official intl release dates on the official site. China is strangely absent..
So is Canada but I know that much is just an omission.

China is listed as Hong Kong but it will be released in China

 

[Anita18]

Studios want to control how positively/negatively the reviews can effect their movie. If this is as good as we've been hearing it should be out a week or so before the actual release.

I recall TDK's first review was Peter Travers, two weeks before release. They knew they had something special, and wanted the word to travel extensively before it came out.

But I think two weeks is rather early nowadays.....

 

[Tobias]

Not replying to anyone in particular, but count me among those that really loved Thor & CA:TFA. I'd give them both a strong 8 and I can't wait to see the sequels. The Avengers is also just an 8 in my book, a very good CBM but imo it wasn't anymore enjoyable than Marvel's individual entries. With that being said, I think MOS is going to perform much better than expectations and has more B.O. potential than the next two Marvel films.

Zach Snyder has already hinted that if you think you have seen the major action in the trailers, you really haven't. I know It seems like we have seen the whole movie, but The Amazing Snyder Man has cleverly only shown shown us about 5 minutes or so of a 2 hr 23 minute movie (incl.credits) over the past 11 months. Of that 5 minutes, the editing is so fast in regards to the action scenes, that it really doesn't give much away - especially the overall flow of the movie. The meat and potatoes of each trailer is really the same, and with each successive trailer they just throw in a few more (blink and you'll miss them) choice images that we haven't seen, edit it a little differently and change the music.

This movie is going to have incredible action, tons of emotion, and an origin story that is known and beloved the World over, and a shirtless HC who the ladies seem to be drooling over. Throw in a good measure of Star power with Crowe, Costner, Adams and Hollywood heavy hitters Nolan, Snyder etc, and it's hard for me to see this movie fizzling at the B.O. The only caveat in my book is if the pacing of the movie is off, and it is ponderous and plodding. If this film is as enjoyable as STID which was fantastic, and the reviews are glowing, I see (at least)$140 Million O.W. and much less drop off the following weekend than IM3 experienced. Internationally this movie is at the very least likely to go gangbusters in the UK and Australia.The key to the opening weekend B.O. are the reviews. If they are glowing enough, and WB lifts the embargo sooner rather than later, then I could see MOS approaching TDK/IM3 numbers.

The female demo will be interesting to follow.

All those shirtless, hairy chested shots of HC methinks were done on purpose.

Will HC draw the women or will End Of Earth - where the female draw franco stars.

SR didn't do well, surprisingly, with the female demo despite having Routh. But it was up against Prada which was a huge hit among women.

Will Henry draw them in?

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

The female demo will be interesting to follow.

All those shirtless, hairy chested shots of HC methinks were done on purpose.

Will HC draw the women or will End Of Earth - where the female draw franco stars.

SR didn't do well, surprisingly, with the female demo despite having Routh. But it was up against Prada which was a huge hit among women.

Will Henry draw them in?

Yes, MOS, SR he was too mopey/voyeuristic and Yes once again.

 

[Tobias]

Yes, MOS, SR he was too mopey/voyeuristic and Yes once again.

We'll have to wait and see.

In MOS's favor there doesn't seem to be a major female-friendly film in the weeks after it debuts. That doesn't mean women will turn out to see HC. But they might. MOS is going to need a strong female draw to do well.

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

We'll have to wait and see.

In MOS's favor there doesn't seem to be a major female-friendly film in the weeks after it debuts. That doesn't mean women will turn out to see HC. But they might. MOS is going to need a strong female draw to do well.

When Henry hit's the talk show rounds, they'll be swooning.

To quote/paraphrase Bill Murray as Carl Spackler: "Cinderella story. Outta nowhere. A former box office titan, now, about to become the summer B.O. champion. It looks like a mirac... It's in the hole! It's in the hole! It's in the hole!"t:

 

[Rhonimus]

When Henry hit's the talk show rounds, they'll be swooning.

To quote/paraphrase Bill Murray as Carl Spackler: "Cinderella story. Outta nowhere. A former box office titan, now, about to become the summer B.O. champion. It looks like a mirac... It's in the hole! It's in the hole! It's in the hole!"t:

lol

plus, looking at latest "Fate of Your Planet" trailer & great new TV spots, as a barometer for this movie's quality, i believe WOM for this will be strong ..

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

lol

plus, looking at latest "Fate of Your Planet" trailer & great new TV spots, as a barometer for this movie's quality, i believe WOM for this will be strong ..

Precisely. It would be better to open a little less than IM3, but have better legs. Sure O.W. Box office champ sounds nice, but I think most movie studios are more interested in the ultimate take at the B.O. Look at Avatar. Roughly$73 million domestic O.W. Not that impressive, but look how much it ended up doing once it had completed it's theatrical run.

 

[Rhonimus]

Precisely. It would be better to open a little less than IM3, but have better legs. Sure O.W. Box office champ sounds nice, but I think most movie studios are more interested in the ultimate take at the B.O. Look at Avatar. Roughly$73 million domestic O.W. Not that impressive, but look how much it ended up doing once it had completed it's theatrical run.

if i was a betting man, i would bet that this isn't a front engined vehicle .. more like mid-engined .. nice centre of gravity that'll prevent it from derailing going through corner no 1 .. if u'll pardon the melodramatic analogy

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

if i was a betting man, i would bet that this isn't a front engined vehicle .. more like mid-engined .. nice centre of gravity that'll prevent it from derailing going through corner no 1 .. if u'll pardon the melodramatic analogy

i hope your anology is accurate. It just occurred to me that while speaking of the B.O. potential of summer blockbusters Sony should change the tagline for 'After Earth' to:

Danger is real. Fear is a choice. Moving your movie up a week after the suits saw trailer # 3 from MOS and realized it would suck the B.O. oxygen out of the room on your second weekend, smacks of desperation!

It's a bit wordy i know, but likely very accurate.

 

[Tobias]

One big concern is MU. Expected to be huge WW. 700, 800 million. It will be going up against MOS week after week in the US and these two films share some key demos so they could put a damper on each other in terms of audience retention.

 

[Rhonimus]

i hope your anology is accurate. It just occurred to me that while speaking of the B.O. potential of summer blockbusters Sony should change the tagline for 'After Earth' to:

Danger is real. Fear is a choice. Moving your movie up a week after the suits saw trailer # 3 from MOS and realized it would suck the B.O. oxygen out of the room on your second weekend, smacks of desperation!

It's a bit wordy i know, but likely very accurate.

yeah i wonder how many people would be onto this ? the fact that AE moved back its opening week .. that's some free advertising right there, if one can read between the lines .. but i guess most people would be unaware

 

[Rhonimus]

One big concern is MU. Expected to be huge WW. 700, 800 million. It will be going up against MOS week after week in the US and these two films share some key demos so they could put a damper on each other in terms of audience retention.

yep, MU constitutes the one major threat to MoS IMO .. but i suppose one has to consider the real possibility that (many) people who haven't seen MoS after week 1 & will see MU on its opening weekend, will likely end up seeing MoS at some point provided that WOM for MoS will be as good as i suspect it would be ..

 

[Juha Bach]

If this movie is as incredible as the latest trailers and tv spots suggest, its legs and word of mouth are going to be out of this world. Does not matter whether MU is coming out in the next week.
Good to hear that there were Tv spots in the champions league final. Great marketing by WB.

 

[Marvin]

China is listed as Hong Kong but it will be released in China

CHINA isnt absent from the list, they just have it listed as Hong Kong. I guess only that portion of China will get MoS

My bad, I was looking for/at flags.
Singapore is there as well.

 

[Marvin]

If this movie is as incredible as the latest trailers and tv spots suggest, its legs and word of mouth are going to be out of this world. Does not matter whether MU is coming out in the next week.
Good to hear that there were Tv spots in the champions league final. Great marketing by WB.

Something people haven't been talking about is exactly how much business Man of Steel is going to take away from MU.

It is a similar audience after all. Will fathers wanna take their boys to see the this or that I wonder.

Pixar has been on the trite streak lately.
I also have a feeling WWZ will be third that weekend.

 

[GreenKToo]

There is room at the table for both films.
Remember the summer ( may) of 2007? shrek 3, spiderman 3 and potc 3 all released within two weeks of each other, and all were HUGE hits.
If MoS is good people will see it. It really is that simple.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Remember the summer ( may) of 2007? shrek 3, spiderman 3 and potc 3 all released within two weeks of each other, and all were HUGE hits.

And all three dropped loads from their previous film's domestic grosses.

Hmmm.....

 

[Marvin]

There is room at the table for both films.
Remember the summer ( may) of 2007? shrek 3, spiderman 3 and potc 3 all released within two weeks of each other, and all were HUGE hits.
If MoS is good people will see it. It really is that simple.

I remember that summer.

All those films would have done better had they been the only big release of that May.
It's actually that simple. Not everyone has money to take the family to every film a month, especially with all the big fat surcharges running around.