Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[redp]

The X-Men franchise mirrors Raimi's Spider-Man in that in that sense. The first is good. The second is even better, and the third is horrendous.

I have a different view. But, honestly, there is no difference (at least in my opinion) between a 70% and a 89%. I got another for you: How about TASM versus the original Spider-Man?

 

[db85usa]

There's obviously some psychological issues here. I hope you don't hang yourself if it does under $750M WW... The odds are against your life, my friend.

No, no they aren't. I've been doing this professionally for 10 years. Here's a small list of movies I've been spot on or close with OW numbers.

The Dark Knight Rises $175 million (won't argue WHY I was off with that prediction for obvious reasons), The Avengers I expected $180-$195 Million I never imagined $200+ Spider-Man 1 I predicted $110 Million, Spider-Man 2 $84 Million, Superman Returns $58 Million, POTC Deadman's Chest $128 Million, Avatar $73 Million, MIB 3 $51 Million, Hulk $66 Million, Incredible Hulk $57 Million

There are tons more but it would take up too much space t:

 

[robot]

I have heard WB is expecting only $90 Million for the OW. Obviously that is so they can boast about a $100-$130 Million OW or more t:

My biggest complaint is -- why undersell this movie at the start and then aggresively promote it so close to it's release? WB made a stupid move in that regard and it is considered a huge gamble, too.

I agree... Last minute marketing in my country as well.. and i presume in most countries around the world. Billboards only came up last week.. that's 3 weeks out... no matter how well it does OS, I think it could have done better with better marketing...

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Are you not taking into account the whole dispute Disney had with Regal/AMC leading to no ticket sales for IM3 leading up to the release? MOS outpacing IM3 is kind of misleading.

This. It's impossible to compare the advanced ticket sales.

I still say never say never except for the opening weekend record, it isn't getting the opening weekend record no matter how much anyone hear wants it. I haven't seen anyone predict that yet but I expect that prediction is coming soon enough.

 

[JOE]

I second that ^!

 

[JOE]

No, no they aren't. I've been doing this professionally for 10 years. Here's a small list of movies I've been spot on or close with OW numbers.

The Dark Knight Rises $175 million (won't argue WHY I was off with that prediction for obvious reasons), The Avengers I expected $180-$195 Million I never imagined $200+ Spider-Man 1 I predicted $110 Million, Spider-Man 2 $84 Million, Superman Returns $58 Million, POTC Deadman's Chest $128 Million, Avatar $73 Million, MIB 3 $51 Million, Hulk $66 Million, Incredible Hulk $57 Million

There are tons more but it would take up too much space t:

Your track record means nothing here.

 

[db85usa]

Well at least your more level headed than the guy here who said he'll actually "hang himself" if it makes under 800...

If serious he should probably talk to someone no joke.

We've butted heads before on SHH! and I should say this -- As a man, you should avoid quoting or even replying to my posts and I will do the same. That way we can avoid a potential ban and we both win.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

The X-Men franchise mirrors Raimi's Spider-Man in that in that sense. The first is good. The second is even better, and the third is horrendous.

I didn't particularly care for XM3 but I think it's much better than SM3.

I think anywhere between $600 million -$800 million is a safe estimate.
But I still think $750 mill.

 

[Liam_H]

Not really. If it's predecessor made a $1 billion, then no.

Come on Pirates 5.

 

[Autonet]

Too bad you guys can't bet amongst yourselves about this stuff. Would be interesting to watch. :P

 

[JOE]

I have a different view. But, honestly, there is no difference (at least in my opinion) between a 70% and a 89%. I got another for you: How about TASM versus the original Spider-Man?

Again, I'm not following. X-Men is an 82% and X-Men 2 is an 87%. That's not a 19% difference.

As far as TASM compared to Spider-Man. TASM was decent, cool enough to produce a sequel and did good in the BO. Wasn't great by any means. Spider-Man was great. There's the gap in ratings.

 

[db85usa]

Your track record means nothing here.

But it will when MoS breaks the June record and in three months time we finally get a view of a final DOM/Foreign tally. It means nothing to you, but it does to me because I do it for a LIVING. Do you? No. I actually go around, travel the world and do WORK on box office films and how they will perform and also investigate on competitors as well.

 

[Liam_H]

Too bad you guys can't bet amongst yourselves about this stuff. Would be interesting to watch. :P

That's actually one of the fun things I see at BoxOffice Forums. They have a Bet thread. And the stakes can be name, avatar, sig change for a certain period of time. Results can be funny.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Again, I'm not following. X-Men is an 82% and X-Men 2 is an 87%. That's not a 19% difference.

As far as TASM compared to Spider-Man. TASM was decent, cool enough to produce a sequel and did good in the BO. Wasn't great by any means. Spider-Man was great. There's the gap in ratings.

Ironically enough the audience in RT rated TASM MUCH higher than the first Spider-Man......

 

[db85usa]

FWIW, HSX is trading at $303 Million DOM so it's kind of in that $300-$325 DOM range the informed people seem to predict. So that would probably translate to a $100-$120 Million OW which would be great for a rebooted franchise.

 

[Liam_H]

Ironically enough the audience in RT rated TASM MUCH higher than the first Spider-Man......

Not saying this happened. But wouldn't surprise me if they downvoted SM to make ASM look better. I think this kind of stuff happens at IMDB all the time.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Not saying this happened. But wouldn't surprise me if they downvoted SM to make ASM look better. I think this kind of stuff happens at IMDB all the time.

I doubt it, it was like that before the reboot.

 

[redp]

Again, I'm not following. X-Men is an 82% and X-Men 2 is an 87%. That's not a 19% difference.

As far as TASM compared to Spider-Man. TASM was decent, cool enough to produce a sequel and did good in the BO. Wasn't great by any means. Spider-Man was great. There's the gap in ratings.

I liked TASM(73%) more than Spider-Man(89%) . I wasn't comparing X2 and X1, but X1 and X3, and X2 and X3. Bottom Line: A 5% difference or a 15% doesn't really make a difference.

 

[db85usa]

I liked TASM(73%) more than Spider-Man(89%) . I wasn't comparing X2 and X1, but X1 and X3, and X2 and X3. Bottom Line: A 5% difference or a 15% doesn't really make a difference.

ASM is the better movie and I too enjoyed it much more. It borrowed a lot of elements from Batman Begins' reboot but blending in with more quirkiness/fun with a gritty style. I thought it worked quite well. ASM 2 will make bank. As far as your RT goes, I agree that isn't much of a difference at all. It really isn't. A lot of the people that reviewed ASM still had love for SM1/SM2 and it wasn't that far removed from Sam Raimi's version.

 

[db85usa]

Not saying this happened. But wouldn't surprise me if they downvoted SM to make ASM look better. I think this kind of stuff happens at IMDB all the time.

That happens on IMDB on a daily basis. I think TDK for a while was ahead of Shawshank at one point in 2008 and was as high as #2 and #3 for a while, higher than The Godfather 1 & 2. Then Shawshank and Godfather 1 & 2 kept trading places. People do go back and edit their initial reviews on RT.

 

[Bruce Malone]

We've butted heads before on SHH! and I should say this -- As a man, you should avoid quoting or even replying to my posts and I will do the same. That way we can avoid a potential ban and we both win.

I've kept things very professional on my part compared to some of your hyperbole so i honestly don't see where your vague threats are coming from?

Regardless i don't actually have a monetary stake in how well this films does so for now

 

[JOE]

I liked TASM(73%) more than Spider-Man(89%) . I wasn't comparing X2 and X1, but X1 and X3, and X2 and X3. Bottom Line: A 5% difference or a 15% doesn't really make a difference.

You liking it doesn't make it a better movie. I think TASM 2 has the potential to be better than any Spider-Man movie with what they're doing with it. Looks promising. I'll wait for a trailer to see though.

 

[JOE]

But it will when MoS breaks the June record and in three months time we finally get a view of a final DOM/Foreign tally. It means nothing to you, but it does to me because I do it for a LIVING. Do you? No. I actually go around, travel the world and do WORK on box office films and how they will perform and also investigate on competitors as well.

I'd say not to quit your day job, but that won't be an issue if it doesn't break 750M now will it?

 

[db85usa]

I've kept things very professional on my part compared to some of your hyperbole so i honestly don't see where your vague threats are coming from?

Regardless i don't actually have a monetary stake in how well this films does so for now

Sigh...

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's scary how similar the predictions for Man of Steel and Superman Returns are.

I remember everybody saying, it's Superman it should be a lock for such and such amount. I thought the movie looked and sounded like a boring mess and still thought it would do 275mil. You'll understand why I am hesitant, to say the least, to get caught up in the box office hype again.

The truth is, no offense to the fans of Returns, I was relieved when it disappointed at the box office because I knew that if it succeeded we were in for a 15-20 year wait for a reboot. I have no idea if I will like this movie (okay, I doubt I won't) but at least Warners tried this time. Hate or love SR but it was a lazy, too safe move(not a popular opinion at the time) to tie the film to Donner's films. No matter what happens at least Warners finally gave Supes the same courtesy they gave Batman in 2005.