Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[JOE]

It will make much more. If Spidey can get $62 M for an OW and reach the figures it did, MoS should be able to if not more. Yes, I know ASM was released around July 4 as well mid-week.

No.

The Amazing Spider-Man did the numbers it did because of the OS numbers. 490M OS is the reason it cleared 750M. If MOS makes close to 500M OS then sure, it'll have a chance to stand there with Spidey.

 

[db85usa]

Is it possible that the trial with Superman's property delayed marketing? The legal reasons of which are obvious of course.

No, that was solved early on. It wasn't intended or meant to impact Zack Snyder's film at all actually. This is WB's play. This is how they wanted to go about it and I'm not for the whole undersell/aggressive sell approach. I think the best way to go about it is to open the flood gates right from the start to create some buzz early on but the way they're doing it is like a recipe -- slowly adding ingredients together until the final stir. It COULD work and if it does, kudos to WB for the gamble.

 

[Bruce Malone]

It will make much more. If Spidey can get $62 M for an OW and reach the figures it did, MoS should be able to if not more. Yes, I know ASM was released around July 4 as well mid-week.

The fact that you can't even fathom it making $650m shows that you most likely will be disappointed by that result, which goes back to my point of people setting the bars too high now.

A few years ago a film making a billion was seen as a fluke or some crazy movie phenomena. It's still pretty rare actually and you can't expect every blockbuster to make such. Saying "it's superman!" mean nothing other than that you personally are a superman fan.

You called me a pessimist before i'm not, i do want this film to do well but what i am is a realist who has no intentions to set the bar higher then it needs to be.

$700m ww which is what i've predicted from the get-go and it's a safe bet imo.

 

[JOE]

This^!

 

[JOE]

Thanks Bruce for bringing logic back into these forums.

 

[redp]

So you're comparing this movie with Spider-Man? Spider-Man was the best CBM at the time and did well with the critics too. 89% on RT, which is hard to come across for CBM nowadays. The Dark Knight and The Avengers are the only CBM's to beat it on RT in 11 years.

Raimi's Spider-Man also did 820M WW. By your math, this movie should clear 1B no problem, right? I'm just following your lead here.

The nuance between a 89% and 70% is irrelevant. They're effectively the same thing. And, it doesn't necessarily mean that it will pass $1B, several international markets haven't actually grown that much. Also, competition is on the rise. Secondly, I never specifically stated that I predict a $150 or around that gross. I merely gave a bit of evidence. I am predicting WW: 700-800.

 

[db85usa]

No.

The Amazing Spider-Man did the numbers it did because of the OS numbers. 490M OS is the reason it cleared 750M. If MOS makes close to 500M OS then sure, it'll have a chance to stand there with Spidey.

I know this. The only reason you posted it is because I didn't, lol. The foreign market has changes quite a bit. Lately, movies are making much more than they used to. Do you really think ASM would have made as much as it did without the 3D surcharge or IMAX premium prices?

In that case, if ASM was released on a friday without those ticket sales, it probably would have grossed only $65 million. Look, TDKR made $160 Million for its OW WITHOUT 3D. Imagine if it did have those 3D ticket sales. It would have CRUSHED The Avengers OW. Man of Steel has the 3D surcharge and a lot of people will want to see a man fly in 3D. Because of these surcharges and premium prices for IMAX and the fact that there are more IMAX theaters available today -- that is why there are a lot of $100+ Million OW predictions out there.

 

[JOE]

The nuance between a 89% and 70% is irrelevant. They're effectively the same thing.

Wait... What?

Tell me you were kidding, please...

 

[Liam_H]

@db85usa
If I remember correctly didn't you also say IM3 would open around $130-150 million?

 

[db85usa]

The nuance between a 89% and 70% is irrelevant. They're effectively the same thing. And, it doesn't necessarily mean that it will pass $1B, several international markets haven't actually grown that much. Also, competition is on the rise. Secondly, I never specifically stated that I predict a $150 or around that gross. I merely gave a bit of evidence. I am predicting WW: 700-800.

I'll raise you. $800-$900 million WW. The buzz for MoS is big. Bigger than IM3? I'd say it is right up there and that's saying a lot for a film that has no previous installments and being a non sequel and not coming off of a World's Finest or Justice League film.

 

[redp]

I think WB's marketing was the best option considering Iron Man 3 appearance in May 2013. Mixing the marketing of both MOS and IM would confuse consumers and can also be costly. There were many movies in that month so they had to wait until the cooled down. In fact, if you follow the timing of the marketing this explanation makes the most sense.

 

[JOE]

I know this. The only reason you posted it is because I didn't, lol. The foreign market has changes quite a bit. Lately, movies are making much more than they used to. Do you really think ASM would have made as much as it did without the 3D surcharge or IMAX premium prices?

In that case, if ASM was released on a friday without those ticket sales, it probably would have grossed only $65 million. Look, TDKR made $160 Million for its OW WITHOUT 3D. Imagine if it did have those 3D ticket sales. It would have CRUSHED The Avengers OW. Man of Steel has the 3D surcharge and a lot of people will want to see a man fly in 3D. Because of these surcharges and premium prices for IMAX and the fact that there are more IMAX theaters available today -- that is why there are a lot of $100+ Million OW predictions out there.

You're comparing apples with oranges.

How can you compare TDKR with TASM? Comparing a reboot coming off a terrible end to a sequel is a totally different than comparing one of the most anticipated sequels of all time. Plus the fact that it came off arguably the best CBM ever made. TDKR was the peak of the franchise, the anticipation was boiling over. TASM had to start over and win the people back over for the excuse of a third Spider-Man movie that never happened.

 

[JOE]

I'll raise you. $800-$900 million WW. The buzz for MoS is big. Bigger than IM3? I'd say it is right up there and that's saying a lot for a film that has no previous installments and being a non sequel and not coming off of a World's Finest or Justice League film.

$800M-$900M WW? I hope you prove me wrong. But I doubt you will. Just curious, I know you're thinking around $150M OW, but what's your OS and DOM predictions?

 

[db85usa]

@db85usa
If I remember correctly didn't you also say IM3 would open around $130-150 million?

I did. In fact, I was lazy in my assessment of IM3. IM3 had a crap ton of walk up sales. I was leaning towards early studio estimates about a month before it's release but then the embargo came and estimates rose quite a bit and I took time off for a while. I under predicted the film because I did not think it would gross a lot due to IM2 not being that great of a film. TA had a lot to do with the success of IM3, that's a known fact.

But, IM3 wasn't that good of a movie. IMO, it got lucky with the amount of money it made but it looks like DOM it will barely get past $400 million which of course is a success.

So yep, I was wrong and I'm not afraid to admit it.

 

[redp]

Wait... What?

Tell me you were kidding, please...

I actually wasn't. Question: Among your favorite movies, do you have a film that has a 60-78% rating? And then ask your self how does it compare with your other favorite movies that have a 80+ rating.

 

[db85usa]

$800M-$900M WW? I hope you prove me wrong. But I doubt you will. Just curious, I know you're thinking around $150M OW, but what's your OS and DOM predictions?

DOM: $350-$380 Mil
OS: $475-$550 Mil

Studios never go for exact estimates. There is always a window figure/goal amount. I'm just doing what I know and going with what I know. Based on all the research and math, all the headaches. I literally expect over $800 Million WW anything less than that, I'd consider a huge disappointment. Since I'm a huge Superman fan, I might just hang myself if it doesn't reach that amount but I'll think twice if the buck stops at say... $750 Million WW.

 

[JOE]

I actually wasn't. Question: Among your favorite movies, do you have a film that has a 60-78% rating? And then ask your self how does it compare with your other favorite movies that have a 80+ rating.

Are you talking about CBM? In that case, no.

 

[JOE]

DOM: $350-$380 Mil
OS: $475-$550 Mil

Studios never go for exact estimates. There is always a window figure/goal amount. I'm just doing what I know and going with what I know. Based on all the research and math, all the headaches. I literally expect over $800 Million WW anything less than that, I'd consider a huge disappointment. Since I'm a huge Superman fan, I might just hang myself if it doesn't reach that amount but I'll think twice if the buck stops at say... $750 Million WW.

There's obviously some psychological issues here. I hope you don't hang yourself if it does under $750M WW... The odds are against your life, my friend.

 

[db85usa]

I think WB's marketing was the best option considering Iron Man 3 appearance in May 2013. Mixing the marketing of both MOS and IM would confuse consumers and can also be costly. There were many movies in that month so they had to wait until the cooled down. In fact, if you follow the timing of the marketing this explanation makes the most sense.

It's a gamble though. A huge one. It could cost them big time for that, too. If you don't market a product on time or even enough, how can you expect people to buy it? It's really that simple. Now, as I've said in previous posts though, the latest aggressive marketing by WB is great and its resonating with fans and the GA right now.

 

[redp]

Are you talking about CBM? In that case, no.

Other then CBM movies. For just a second though lets look at CBM: Which do you think is best X-Men 1, 2, or 3?

 

[robot]

So you're saying that if this movie makes 650M WW you'll be disappointed?

Again, missing the point... All I said was I 'personally think' (you can call it predict or opinion), that it'll make $1B... my estimate range is 900m-1.1B...

I never said what numbers I'll be disappointed at or if I'll call it a failure..

If it made $650, I'll be wrong, but not disappointed... In fact, now that you ask, I think anything above $600M is a success (both for me and the studio)...

In case you still don't get it, let me spell it out for you... If I predicted Avatar to make $3billion and it makes only $2Billion would I be disappointed??? Of course not... both are great numbers...

For any movie, $600M is a great number...

 

[sf2]

Superman is much more powerful than all other superheroes!!! So his movie will n must outdo others. The Avengers, spidey n ironman can eat dust! !!
Lol funny fanboy mentality.

 

[redp]

...

For any movie, $600M is a great number...

Not really. If it's predecessor made a $1 billion, then no.

 

[JOE]

The X-Men franchise mirrors Raimi's Spider-Man in that in that sense. The first is good. The second is even better, and the third is horrendous.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Again, missing the point... All I said was I 'personally think' (you can call it predict or opinion), that it'll make $1B... my estimate range is 900m-1.1B...

I never said what numbers I'll be disappointed at or if I'll call it a failure..

If it made $650, I'll be wrong, but not disappointed... In fact, now that you ask, I think anything above $600M is a success (both for me and the studio)...

In case you still don't get it, let me spell it out for you... If I predicted Avatar to make $3billion and it makes only $2Billion would I be disappointed??? Of course not... both are great numbers...

For any movie, $600M is a great number...

Well at least your more level headed than the guy here who said he'll actually "hang himself" if it makes under 800...

If serious he should probably talk to someone no joke.