Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[JOE]

I agree with these numbers. I also think it's overseas number is going to be huge. It all kind of hangs on how well the film is received and whether it's entertaining. Signs point to yes but we need that first batch of official reviews.

June 10th is judgement day.

 

[db85usa]

If you're figuring around 300M DOM you got some work to do OS if you wanna hit the 800M marker. Apparently the marketing on the other side of the world isn't that great for this movie so let's hope word of mouth is on MOS' side.

$300-$330 DOM is a common number I'm receiving along with $460-$550 foreign. Really $800 Million is doable the limit I have said is $900+ and that would be with a massive OW such as $150 million domestically.

Anyway, I've got to run. It's been fun arguing over something that is about to go down in nearly a week but June 10th a plethora of reviews will start coming out. I think RT rating will be very solid with MoS.

 

[GreenKToo]

I'm not an expert, but if it opened to 150 million, wouldnt it be pretty bad if it only got 300 dom?
I would think it would be more like 400 mill?? please correct me if i'm wrong.

EDIT: My bad. you said the fanboy in you says 150 mill opening.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

db85usa might just hire you if you keep that attitude up!

lol How high can I go?!

You aren't wrong Green, the least it should be grossing is 400mil off of a 150mil opening, anything less means it had bad legs.

 

[db85usa]

Logical people were wrong on Avengers and IM3.

Both severely underestimated by almost everyone.

Very true. And Skyfall as well. That surprised me more than those two combined.

 

[Liam_H]

I'm not expert, but if it opened to 150 million, wouldnt it be pretty bad if it only got 300 dom?
I would think it would be more like 400 mill?? please correct me if i am wrong.

F**kin terrible. I mean we're talkin' Twilight level type of legs, but this is not that type of movie.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I can point out a million over predicted films as well as under predicted ones.

 

[db85usa]

I'm not expert, but if it opened to 150 million, wouldnt it be pretty bad if it only got 300 dom?
I would think it would be more like 400 mill?? please correct me if i am wrong.

IM3 grossed $170+ and it looks like it'll barely get past 400 Million right now. In this day and age, like most people will say once tracking and predictions are beyond $100 Million it really is a crapshoot but one head scratcher I have read that WB lowered their prediction to only $90 Million. I'm not sure why it dropped that quickly or the reasoning behind it.

I hope I'm wrong on all accounts and Man of Steel grosses $3 Billion worldwide. Hell, I think it will!!

 

[db85usa]

I can point out a million over predicted films as well as under predicted ones.

Point them out then get back to us in a week, please.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I can point out a million over predicted films as well as under predicted ones.

The point is logic does not apply to all movies when it comes to predicting.

Especially recent superhero blockbusters.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The point is logic does not apply to all movies when it comes to predicting.

Especially recent superhero blockbusters.

I know that, I'm just saying that people are acting like every film has exceeded expectations and that is not even remotely true. Maybe Man of Steel will exceed expectations and maybe it won't.

 

[Astrodust]

I'm an not expert, but if it opened to 150 million, wouldnt it be pretty bad if it only got 300 dom?
I would think it would be more like 400 mill?? please correct me if i am wrong.

EDIT: My bad. you said the fanboy in you says 150 mill opening.

Ya I think MoS opens strong and it's legs take it over 300 mil. I also think it's great overseas numbers will have people taking notice domestically to further the momentum. And unless it is poorly received critically I say the film will do extremely well in China, the UK, and South Korea.

 

[GreenKToo]

A 150 mill ow would be crazy. I think it will do good to hit a 120. prolly more like 115.

 

[db85usa]

Ya I think MoS opens strong and it's legs take it over 300 mil. I also think it's great overseas numbers will have people taking notice domestically to further the momentum. And unless it is poorly received critically I say the film will do extremely well in China, the UK, and South Korea.

I'm on the fence with the UK. Henry Cavill helps, will that be enough? Time will tell. I do think it will do ok in China. I don't expect anything stellar. What a lot of people don't take into consideration is the 3D surcharge and IMAX. It makes a huge difference with foreign intake and even domestically. Like I've said before, movies are earning more overseas than ever before.

 

[db85usa]

A 150 mill ow would be crazy. I think it will do good to hit a 120. prolly more like 115.

That seems to be the sweet spot. $150 Million is unlikely and I've stated that in previous posts. It's more of a pipe dream because I am bias afterall. But, I won't rule it out. It's a possibility, it really just depends on the GA with this one.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I won't rule out 150mil but I'm damn sure not predicting it. Whoever predicts that and is right, congrats, I guess I'll be wrong.

 

[Astrodust]

I'm on the fence with the UK. Henry Cavill helps, will that be enough? Time will tell. I do think it will do ok in China. I don't expect anything stellar. What a lot of people don't take into consideration is the 3D surcharge and IMAX. It makes a huge difference with foreign intake and even domestically. Like I've said before, movies are earning more overseas than ever before.

It's not easy to get a film released in China, especially getting a whole one month theatrical run. That is a big deal so I don't see it getting anything less than 60-75 million in China. If the film is great, I'm thinking it gets fairly close to 100 million if not more.

 

[db85usa]

I won't rule out 150mil but I'm damn sure not predicting it. Whoever predicts that and is right, congrats, I guess I'll be wrong.

That's my limit is $150 Million. If WB straight up asked me what I think MoS will gross in its OW I would say $130-$150 Million based on analytical market research alone. Their $90 Mil expectation implies they really expect $110-$115 million so they can be surprised when June 16th comes with an unofficial estimate.

*edit* anything over $100 million for the OW is a win for all of us that are fans and want to see the film do well. No matter who is right or who is wrong.

 

[Astrodust]

I won't rule out 150mil but I'm damn sure not predicting it. Whoever predicts that and is right, congrats, I guess I'll be wrong.

I don't think it makes that much next weekend. I've asked around and too many people still don't know about it and some don't even realize it's out so soon. I'm just hoping for a small drop from week 1 to 2. That will make people take notice.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

That's my limit is $150 Million. If WB straight up asked me what I think MoS will gross in its OW I would say $130-$150 Million based on analytical market research alone. Their $90 Mil expectation implies they really expect $110-$115 million so they can be surprised when June 16th comes with an unofficial estimate.

*edit* anything over $100 million for the OW is a win for all of us that are fans and want to see the film do well. No matter who is right or who is wrong.

I think anything over 90mil is a win but that's only 10mil more so I'm agreeing with your sentiment.

I don't think it makes that much next weekend. I've asked around and too many people still don't know about it and some don't even realize it's out so soon. I'm just hoping for a small drop from week 1 to 2. That will make people take notice.

It's hard to know just by asking people you know. I wouldn't predict box office numbers based on that info. And movies almost never have small drops anymore, especially when they open to a certain amount.

 

[Astrodust]

It's hard to know just by asking people you know. I wouldn't predict box office numbers based on that info. And movies almost never have small drops anymore, especially when they open to a certain amount.

I do it mainly to gauge awareness and to spread the word. It surprises me the amount of people that don't know the film exists. I think MoS2 opens huge but I just don't see this film breaking any opening records or coming close. Strong opening, strong legs, and a massive final overseas number is what I'm pulling for.

 

[JOE]

Iron Man 3 is at 386 DOM right now. Since OW they've only had around 210M.

If MOS does not hit 100M OW, the DOM will not get past 350M, IMO.

As far as OS, I'm thinking around the 300-350M marker. Best case scenario, the movie hits 700M WW and above.

 

[Juha Bach]

1. Uk sales have been ok. Bfi imax has 4 sold out shows for OW.
2. I need to clarify, has warner bros already made 170mill from the movie's tie ins or do they get a less amount or do they get nothing! Can someone explain the gist of this transaction to me?
3. Am hearing(from posters boxoffice.com) that WB actually sold 1 mill tickets to walmart for about 10 million. So regardles of how the sales go, WB, already have 10 mill in the bag for early screenings on thurs. Whats the plausibility of this?

 

[JOE]

The third one is irrelevant because that's $10M they were going to get from midnight showings regardless. If you're willing to buy it a month in advance at Wal-Mart, you'll buy midnight tickets at your local IMAX theatre.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Logical people were wrong on Avengers and IM3.

Both severely underestimated by almost everyone.

The fanboy predictions are more often dead wrong than the logical ones. By a huge margin.

They always severely overestimate a property they love. Assume everyone else can't wait to see it too and will watch it 10 times in theaters. Countless examples.