Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Ms. Marvel]

well the website shows a release date for Hong Kong but not China. So maybe they havent advertised much in China. Russia, Hong Kong, Europe, South Korea, South America, and Australia need to be huge for MOS to have decent OS numbers.

Should I lower my estimate?

 

[Sup3rman81]

Rest of the world?
So S.America and Africa are failing too?

Well is $700 million, so if they make that I'll be fine.

everyone needs to not read into much about what people are saying on this site. Avengers was never predicted to make as much as it did. MOS will be fine. WOM needs to be good for any movie to truly succeed and MOS will need WOM to be strong of course. Also reviews from critics will be a huge factor. In the end its going to make $$$, whether or not WB is happy remains to be seen. We need to just sit back and wait for it to be released. I think MOS will have several people waiting to see how it is then once WOM kicks in it will do huge numbers.

325-350m domestic - 450 OS - 725-800m WW

 

[Sup3rman81]

Should I lower my estimate?

if your estimate is 700 WW then I would leave it. It should not perform under 700m WW. I would say 725-750 is more likely but I think it can get to 800m

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

everyone needs to not read into much about what people are saying on this site. Avengers was never predicted to make as much as it did. MOS will be fine. WOM needs to be good for any movie to truly succeed and MOS will need WOM to be strong of course. Also reviews from critics will be a huge factor. In the end its going to make $$$, whether or not WB is happy remains to be seen. We need to just sit back and wait for it to be released. I think MOS will have several people waiting to see how it is then once WOM kicks in it will do huge numbers.

325-350m domestic - 450 OS - 725-800m WW

Those are the kind of numbers I'm expecting.

 

[robot]

well the website shows a release date for Hong Kong but not China. So maybe they havent advertised much in China. Russia, Hong Kong, Europe, South Korea, South America, and Australia need to be huge for MOS to have decent OS numbers.

I do so hope you're right... Sorry, if it seems like I am harping on this issue.. I have not been this excited about a movie since Avatar... and Superman is my all time favorite superhero...

It's just extremely frustrating when you so want this movie to succeed and know that WB is not doing their job properly... (I know they are doing a great job in select markets like the US, UK, and maybe some countries in the EU and maybe S.Africa)...

Anyways, I hope inspite of everything, MOS will be huge... I have a feeling it will surprise everyone, because of WOM (unless the movie sucks, which I don't think it will)....

 

[Marvin]

I have a feeling the action in this film will garner massive amounts of repeat viewings. Something tells me they havent really shown the meat of it. I`m wrapping my head around the ins and outs of the zod superman fight and what it`s no doubt going to be and how it`s going tap into that TF like awe that just keeps flowing from one set piece into another. Only this time there won`t be any critics insulting people for liking this and begging people not to go, cause the story will be up to snuff.

Imagine the batman movies but with an action and spectacle that surpasses Avengers.
Repeat viewing aplenty.

Obviously it is going to suffer the fact that it does not have a bunch of heroes running around on com links. That was pretty fun.

I am also glad to see more and more people in this thread collectively movie their numbers up as wb finally starts to roll out the juicy footage and we can all see the general state of mind towards this movie come to a head.

Are there really people on here that still think this movie is going to land under 700WW?

 

[Sup3rman81]

I have a feeling the action in this film will garner massive amounts of repeat viewings. Something tells me they havent really shown the meat of it. I`m wrapping my head around the ins and outs of the zod superman fight and what it`s no doubt going to be and how it`s going tap into that TF like awe that just keeps flowing from one set piece into another. Only this time there won`t be any critics insulting people for liking this and begging people not to go, cause the story will be up to snuff.

Imagine the batman movies but with an action and spectacle that surpasses Avengers.
Repeat viewing aplenty.

Obviously it is going to suffer the fact that it does not have a bunch of heroes running around on com links. That was pretty fun.

I am also glad to see more and more people in this thread collectively movie their numbers up as wb finally starts to roll out the juicy footage and we can all see the general state of mind towards this movie come to a head.

Are there really people on here that still think this movie is going to land under 700WW?

yes they have not even shown much of Faroa or the conflict on Krypton. I think this movie is going to have loads of action. More than probably all 3 Batman movies combined. I know I am seeing it at least 4 times the OW. So I hope other fans will as well. We need strong legs

 

[Sup3rman81]

I do so hope you're right... Sorry, if it seems like I am harping on this issue.. I have not been this excited about a movie since Avatar... and Superman is my all time favorite superhero...

It's just extremely frustrating when you so want this movie to succeed and know that WB is not doing their job properly... (I know they are doing a great job in select markets like the US, UK, and maybe some countries in the EU and maybe S.Africa)...

Anyways, I hope inspite of everything, MOS will be huge... I have a feeling it will surprise everyone, because of WOM (unless the movie sucks, which I don't think it will)....

I understand completely, I am a huge Superman fan. As a fan we have a lot riding on this movie. No success means no more Superman movies ever or for some time. If Superman keeps failing eventually people will stop going to see his movies. People can say that Batman is more popular but thats only because he has had 3 great movies recently. After Schumachers Batman movies no one was asking for more Batman. If it were not for Nolan then Batman would be irrelevant. Batman begins did just enough to get a sequel. Had it not been for Heath and his untimely death TDK might not have had the legs it did. There are some true haters on this site who want Superman to fail. They know his success means more films and a JLA film that would destroy Avengers. JLA is the ultimate team. Superman fans need to just get out and get the WOM going and make sure to fill those seats.

 

[Mysteryman]

I honestly believe Man of Steel will have a massive OW. How much that's the ultimate question. Based on survey results, many show MoS being the most anticipated movie of 2013 and voted biggest hit of 2013 over IM3.

It is very possible that Man of Steel can gross what The Dark Knight Rises could have earned if it had been released in 3D last summer. This movie will have a massive OW. I'm leaning towards $185 Million now. It sounds crazy but the buzz for this movie is insane!

One of those polls said only 12% percent were interested in IM3 , those polls are unreliable.

 

[GreenKToo]

yes they have not even shown much of Faroa or the conflict on Krypton. I think this movie is going to have loads of action. More than probably all 3 Batman movies combined. I know I am seeing it at least 4 times the OW. So I hope other fans will as well. We need strong legs

i'll be seeing it @ 7 on the 13th, if its as good as i hope, i'll see it again at midnite, then prolly again the next day.

 

[Pickle-El]

That's poor thinking, especially when movies like TDKR and Hobbit earned more money in Overseas market than in US domestic market.

Did you know that even though The Avengers was such a big hit, even with a much bigger Intl tally, the reason it was such a success was because of the domestic tally (US).

The studios are based here, and get a much bigger slice of the pie. Intl is nice for inflating the success of a film, and they obviously get a cut. But, what counts is basically the first month of domestic release.

First week especially, they keep damn near everything in the US.

 

[Pickle-El]

The marketing has not started for MOS here, as I have already stated, I am talking about the entire region not just one Theater in City, we are not seeing any TV spots or wallpapers, only Hangover 3 and Pacific Rim are getting promotion.

SR made 3.2 million here, that may not look like a big figure but adjust it for inflation since 2006, add 15 % extra provided by 3D boost and then it's equivalent in 2013 MOS is 4.5 million here.

Looking at current state of marketing of MOS, I am not that much confident that MOS will earn 4.5 mil here.

Iron Man 2, Thor, BB, TIH, made less than 2 mil here.

In the US, we just started getting the advertising blitz 2 weeks ago. A month before release.

I would expect the same thing in your country. If MOS comes out in two weeks in your country....then it's not a very good sign.

 

[redp]

I repeat this again: marketing is extremely expensive. If WB were to promote MOS in all foreign countries as is done in the US, then any profit that they will have will be lost and they will become bankrupt. This however does not mean they won't market the film. There are cheaper alternative that can often be equally successful. After contacting a WB Licensee/affiliate(a local distributor of WB films), I was informed that each "territory has it own marketing strategy." But, more often than not, the marketing starts later than the US. For that distributor, the promotion of the film starts on June 1--this includes banners, radio broadcasts, TV spots, and other stuff. I reckon the same date will be followed in other countries. Note that some may even be after June 1 since MOS will be released a week after June 14.

So, I think its time that we stop worrying about OS marketing. The success of the film is incredibly reliant on WOM. So, I guess we just have to wait and see.(Another thing I think its also time that we stop making this a "Tobias" Thread; it seems that he is the spotlight of this forum but its MOS that deserves all the attention)

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

I repeat this again: marketing is extremely expensive. If WB were to promote MOS in all foreign countries as is done in the US, then any profit that they will have will be lost and they will become bankrupt. This however does not mean they won't market the film. There are cheaper alternative that can often be equally successful. After contacting a WB Licensee/affiliate(a local distributor of WB films), I was informed that each "territory has it own marketing strategy." But, more often than not, the marketing starts later than the US. For that distributor, the promotion of the film starts on June 1--this includes banners, radio broadcasts, TV spots, and other stuff. I reckon the same date will be followed in other countries. Note that some may even be after June 1 since MOS will be released a week after June 14.

So, I think its time that we stop worrying about OS marketing. The success of the film is incredibly reliant on WOM. So, I guess we just have to wait and see.(Another thing I think its also time that we stop making this a "Tobias" Thread; it seems that he is the spotlight of this forum but its MOS that deserves all the attention)

Stop. You mae too much sense.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I repeat this again: marketing is extremely expensive. If WB were to promote MOS in all foreign countries as is done in the US, then any profit that they will have will be lost and they will become bankrupt. This however does not mean they won't market the film. There are cheaper alternative that can often be equally successful. After contacting a WB Licensee/affiliate(a local distributor of WB films), I was informed that each "territory has it own marketing strategy." But, more often than not, the marketing starts later than the US. For that distributor, the promotion of the film starts on June 1--this includes banners, radio broadcasts, TV spots, and other stuff. I reckon the same date will be followed in other countries. Note that some may even be after June 1 since MOS will be released a week after June 14.

So, I think its time that we stop worrying about OS marketing. The success of the film is incredibly reliant on WOM. So, I guess we just have to wait and see.(Another thing I think its also time that we stop making this a "Tobias" Thread; it seems that he is the spotlight of this forum but its MOS that deserves all the attention)

It's a relief to know WB has a plan.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

For me:

650 m or less = disappointment

700-800 m = success

800+ m = smash hit

But I think Warner Bros would be happy with anything over 625 m WW.

 

[robot]

I repeat this again: marketing is extremely expensive. If WB were to promote MOS in all foreign countries as is done in the US, then any profit that they will have will be lost and they will become bankrupt. This however does not mean they won't market the film. There are cheaper alternative that can often be equally successful. After contacting a WB Licensee/affiliate(a local distributor of WB films), I was informed that each "territory has it own marketing strategy." But, more often than not, the marketing starts later than the US. For that distributor, the promotion of the film starts on June 1--this includes banners, radio broadcasts, TV spots, and other stuff. I reckon the same date will be followed in other countries. Note that some may even be after June 1 since MOS will be released a week after June 14.

So, I think its time that we stop worrying about OS marketing. The success of the film is incredibly reliant on WOM. So, I guess we just have to wait and see.(Another thing I think its also time that we stop making this a "Tobias" Thread; it seems that he is the spotlight of this forum but its MOS that deserves all the attention)

Alrite.. cool... since I totally want MOS to succeed, no point in harping on their lack of marketing... and hope for the best... here's to MOS making 1.2 Billion Dollars!!!!

BTW: I own an Advertising firm, and one of my friend was once the distributor for Lord of the Rings here in Malaysia, and I tell you that they promoted the hell out of the movie with billboards, bus ads, tv spots, etc.. Since they only make money if the show succeeds, you can rest assure that if WB got any local distributor (other than the theaters), you'll see tons of marketing... A lot of times the local distributor will send their agents out to banks, corporations to help pay for the billboards (they'll put up their sponsored by logos on the billboards)... The reason why I think WB dropped the ball is because I don't think they have a local distributor here... I have a feeling they are just distributing directly to the theaters...

 

[robot]

I understand completely, I am a huge Superman fan. As a fan we have a lot riding on this movie. No success means no more Superman movies ever or for some time. If Superman keeps failing eventually people will stop going to see his movies. People can say that Batman is more popular but thats only because he has had 3 great movies recently. After Schumachers Batman movies no one was asking for more Batman. If it were not for Nolan then Batman would be irrelevant. Batman begins did just enough to get a sequel. Had it not been for Heath and his untimely death TDK might not have had the legs it did. There are some true haters on this site who want Superman to fail. They know his success means more films and a JLA film that would destroy Avengers. JLA is the ultimate team. Superman fans need to just get out and get the WOM going and make sure to fill those seats.

I am totally on the same page with you. Although, I can't think of why anyone would hate superman.. it's just so illogical, as spock would have said...

I have such high hopes for this show now...

 

[Mysteryman]

Really? We're predicting 2nd biggest OW of all time now.[/QUOTE I believe there are quite a few people here who think MOS will beat The Avengers OW, they just dont want to be the only ones to say it .

 

[Iceman]

I am totally on the same page with you. Although, I can't think of why anyone would hate superman.. it's just so illogical, as spock would have said...

I have such high hopes for this show now...

Spock would approve of Superman.

 

[Rhonimus]

I have a feeling the action in this film will garner massive amounts of repeat viewings. Something tells me they havent really shown the meat of it. I`m wrapping my head around the ins and outs of the zod superman fight and what it`s no doubt going to be and how it`s going tap into that TF like awe that just keeps flowing from one set piece into another. Only this time there won`t be any critics insulting people for liking this and begging people not to go, cause the story will be up to snuff.

Imagine the batman movies but with an action and spectacle that surpasses Avengers.
Repeat viewing aplenty.

Obviously it is going to suffer the fact that it does not have a bunch of heroes running around on com links. That was pretty fun.

I am also glad to see more and more people in this thread collectively movie their numbers up as wb finally starts to roll out the juicy footage and we can all see the general state of mind towards this movie come to a head.

Are there really people on here that still think this movie is going to land under 700WW?

^^ This

i know i'll be seein' it a minimum of 3 times on big screen ..

but i'm sticking to my story in that anything over 600ww should be regarded as a success .. although i'm obviously hoping for anything north of that figure ..

 

[Ms. Marvel]

^^ This

i know i'll be seein' it a minimum of 3 times on big screen ..

but i'm sticking to my story in that anything over 600ww should be regarded as a success .. although i'm obviously hoping for anything north of that figure ..

Some people voted below $400 million.
I do not know what to say.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

They might've thought the poll was for domestic numbers.

 

[Notrip]

OW numbers should in no way be under 100 million. If they are I will be stunned. 132 is my number and I am sticking with it. 390Domestic is my other number and around 900 WW. This is subject to change because we don't know how good this movie is. If MOS is Great, than expect legs and a 3x multiplier.

 

[kvz5]

Posted? No clue on his source:

Brian Duffield ‏@BrianDuffield 2m
MAN OF STEEL tracking at over $100m. Damn.